Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Tzupy]

Come on piglets, you can do a little pump for me, I need to max my short before the crash...

A crash is coming?  Are you talking about  $380 again, $360 or lower?


Are you calling this a pre-halving crash?


Hm?   We could really get tricked by this kind of probably crash thinking and sell our bitcoins when the price shoots up to $467 and maybe higher.  

I'm gonna continue to play conservative with my stash even though I am getting a bit more worried about whether there is enough steam for upward momentum.   I'm thinking that my worry could be a sign that upward momentum may come, but I'm not holding my breath..

I think that both of us have the sense that if prices get into the $470s or above, then we likely heading in at least the lower $600s... but we gotta get to the $470s first.

I believe we are in the middle of a complex correction, but within a larger bullish trend, at least so far.
So my favorite scenario is a small pump, followed by a triangle that will break down, and then daily MACD will cross to negative, a good reason for a crash.

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[BlindMayorBitcorn]

^This is a year old news story. Can't we get some decent bad news up in here?

Unless my windows calendar thing is lying to me, today's news

Well just because New York is still talking about it, don’t make it news. ...  

Yeah, Bitcoin enthusiasts keep trying to poison people, why is that?
About a year ago, one particularly smart Bitcoitcoin enthusiast tried to extort a pumpkin farmer, claimed he poisoned one of the pumpkins in the pumpkin farmer's pumpkin patch. Pumpkin farmer had to plow under an entire bumper crop of pumpkins, because would rather go broke than buy bitcoins.

Edit: Ah, found it, last September:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3249745/Give-50-000-ll-poison-pumpkins-Bitcoin-blackmailer-told-farmer-produces-half-UK-s-supply.html

That's more like it. Stupid pumpkins.

[nioc]

Wonderful.  They finally processed my btc payment today which I requested on Friday.  Price is $410.85 which I'm happy with.  I don't know exactly when it was sent but it was over 20 blocks ago and has not been included in a block yet.  Fee was 0.0001 which has been standard and I'm sure they don't adjust it.  It is no longer listed as pending in my electrum wallet.  Block 401895 is listed as 1000 kB 

I guess the small free space normally available in a block is being "spammed".  Wonderful

[Alley]

No spam right now, just normal transactions.  Only 188k tx in last 24hr.

[ahpku]

...
That's more like it. Stupid pumpkins.

The letter P & the word "pumpkin" are naturally funny. You can pretty much pun on the P alone. <==or pseudo-pun, like this.
So "pumpkin patch poisoner" is, like, a gift from God.

Or, according to http://www.inc.com/joseph-gulfo/5-most-important-p-words-for-success.html


...and 6 Ps for 8 years in jail

[nioc]

No spam right now, just normal transactions.  Only 188k tx in last 24hr.

maybe for 24 hrs but the last 30 blocks are full.  The people sending are checking the transaction now.

I thought this was the btc help center.  Am I in the correct place?

Update: They are saying:
We kindly advise that you please allow it some more time to be available.
At least through out the day.

LOL

[AlexGR]

No spam right now, just normal transactions.  Only 188k tx in last 24hr.

https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

This is bullshit... we need more crying and bitching that "blocks are full", not a +37% to 52% extra space that 0.65mb-0.73mb blocks allow us

[adamstgBit]

No spam right now, just normal transactions.  Only 188k tx in last 24hr.

https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

This is bullshit... we need more crying and bitching that "blocks are full", not a +37% to 52% extra space that 0.65mb-0.73mb blocks allow us

you're being disingenuous... avg block size phhhh, your an asshole or an idiot, take your pick..

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[adamstgBit]

wow biggest block i have ever seen 999.91KB

there 215$ if fees in this block
 a few tx have a fee >2$

oh look i found happen to see an even bigger block today 999.92KB

[ahpku]

No spam right now, just normal transactions.  Only 188k tx in last 24hr.

https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

This is bullshit... we need more crying and bitching that "blocks are full", not a +37% to 52% extra space that 0.65mb-0.73mb blocks allow us

you're being disingenuous... avg block size phhhh, your an asshole or an idiot, take your pick..

[molecular]

I guess the small free space normally available in a block is being "spammed".  Wonderful

free space is a thing of the past, unfortunately. Another one of satoshis ideas getting buried.

0.12 nodes don't even relay 0-fee tx.

[adamstgBit]

[AlexGR]

No spam right now, just normal transactions.  Only 188k tx in last 24hr.

https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-block-size?timespan=30days&showDataPoints=false&daysAverageString=1&show_header=true&scale=0&address=

This is bullshit... we need more crying and bitching that "blocks are full", not a +37% to 52% extra space that 0.65mb-0.73mb blocks allow us

you're being disingenuous... avg block size phhhh, your an asshole or an idiot, take your pick..

I don't see what's wrong with avg blocksize. Should I take specific blocks to illustrate the point? And if so, what would these blocks be? The 0 bytes ones, or the 1000kb ones?

[nioc]

wow biggest block i have ever seen 999.91KB

there 215$ if fees in this block
 a few tx have a fee >2$

oh look i found happen to see an even bigger block today 999.92KB

Did you miss the one that was listed as 1000.00KB on blockchaindotinfo?

I have 8 credit cards that I hardly use, I use btc more often.  My last 2 out going and 1 incoming payments last week went just fine.  I was just wondering if something was currently going on with the network.

[adamstgBit]

wow biggest block i have ever seen 999.91KB

there 215$ if fees in this block
 a few tx have a fee >2$

oh look i found happen to see an even bigger block today 999.92KB

Did you miss the one that was listed as 1000.00KB on blockchaindotinfo?

I have 8 credit cards that I hardly use, I use btc more often.  My last 2 out going and 1 incoming payments last week went just fine.  I was just wondering if something was currently going on with the network.

no i missed that one.
nothing out of the ordinary, everything is fine, now could you please...
STOP SPAMMING OUR HOLLY LEGER!!  

[iCEBREAKER]

WOW LOOK MONERO

Two whales clashing epicly... WOOOOOW, one get slauthered, I was looking at realtime... my god!

Which got slaughtered, the bullwhale or the bearwhale?   

[rpietila]

WOW LOOK MONERO

Two whales clashing epicly... WOOOOOW, one get slauthered, I was looking at realtime... my god!

Which got slaughtered, the bullwhale or the bearwhale?   

I did not get slaughtered.

[JayJuanGee]

Come on piglets, you can do a little pump for me, I need to max my short before the crash...

A crash is coming?  Are you talking about  $380 again, $360 or lower?


Are you calling this a pre-halving crash?


Hm?   We could really get tricked by this kind of probably crash thinking and sell our bitcoins when the price shoots up to $467 and maybe higher.  

I'm gonna continue to play conservative with my stash even though I am getting a bit more worried about whether there is enough steam for upward momentum.   I'm thinking that my worry could be a sign that upward momentum may come, but I'm not holding my breath..

I think that both of us have the sense that if prices get into the $470s or above, then we likely heading in at least the lower $600s... but we gotta get to the $470s first.

I believe we are in the middle of a complex correction, but within a larger bullish trend, at least so far.
So my favorite scenario is a small pump, followed by a triangle that will break down, and then daily MACD will cross to negative, a good reason for a crash.

Difficult to argue with your fairly broad scenario.... and specifics could be a bit tough too.


I tend to shoot from the hips.

Accordingly, I am a bit more inclined towards 3% up rather than 3% down.... and if we can meaningfully break through $425 then that may well bring us up into the mid-to-upper $440s... accordingly resistance at $450 and $467.. so probably too wishful to think that we would make it much beyond either $425 or $444 without some kind of decent sized correction, again.... maybe coming back to attempt to test $400 again...

Cannot really attempt to predict much further than that because we gotta see how some of this plays out - except to generally describe that we seem to be generally overall within an upward trend... that may take more than 6 more months to bring us above $500 (even though in bitcoinlandia there are frequent surprises that could bring us $500 a lot sooner.. maybe some kind of mass dump or disappearance of coins in ethereum could cause the inverse reaction in bitcoin?).

[r0ach]

This post is for everyone that claims the fee market "breaks down" by altering block size.  I had been pushing this issue a lot lately, so hopefully I was of some persuasion in removing 0-fee transactions in 0.12.0.

I don't believe the tragedy of the commons argument is a valid one because Bitcoin never existed in "the commons" as something like a lake in the first place due to one obvious reason, it's a for-profit system managed by central bankers.  For Bitcoin to not have central bankers, it would require no maximum block size and no min transaction fee.  The problem here is, one of those variables is required to be constrained to prevent spam attacks, so you'll always have central bankers in Bitcoin.

The current devs seem obsessed with utilizing block size as the spam prevention mechanism of Bitcoin solely to try and give the appearance of Bitcoin having no central bankers, when block size is only arbitrary throughput constraint.  Minimum transaction fee is the real spam prevention tool for the job.  They just haven't utilized it because they want to pretend there's no central bankers in the system when it's obviously required.

From a miner's perspective, it's in their best interest to vote for the highest minimum transaction fee that the network will bear.  From a developer's engineering viewpoint, it's in their interest to set it to a level to prevent spam or attacks from constantly filling up blocks to create a permanent backlog.  They both have authority to do so, and both of these interests clearly point to a minimum transaction fee higher than zero, so a Bitcoin dev that isn't advocating a minimum transaction fee for each block size interval isn't fulfilling his role well IMO.

If you take these previous points as fact, there will obviously not be any marginal cost doomsday event by raising block size because the system already required central bankers to work in the first place.  Whether you agree or disagree about millions of other Larimer issues, he got it right when saying Bitcoin is a decentralized business or corporation, not a public good.  My semantics might also be wrong and you might be able to classify them as "decentralized bankers".  It's kind of unknown territory.  Regardless, there is governance and profit structure built in where it's not an unmanaged dumping ground.