Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[DeathAngel]

Good morning Bitcoinland. Still going roughly sideways but with a slight edge upward.

I guess Bitcoin's not dead after all. 

Let's get past $420 and onward up.

Bitcoin died for the 10,000th time & then came back to life. I guess you must have missed it in the news

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JimboToronto]

...these things sometimes can take time.. maybe a lot longer than any of us (potentially weak hands, including myself) have to have sufficient patience to wait it out and keep buying more than we sell if we really believe in BTC as the best of the cryptos.

I guess it depends on why a person buys Bitcoin. If one buys bitcoins to sell them, it's not surprising to see a certain amount of impatience. "We want the world and we want it now."

Those of us in slow-accumulation mode don't care. If the price goes down, it's a buying opportunity. If the price goes up too sharply, it means that if we absolutely must sell some coins, we'll make a larger fiat profit. Win-win.

[bargainbin]

... "We want the world and we want it now."
...

Today your love, tomorrow the world.
Patient bear is patient.

[JayJuanGee]

...these things sometimes can take time.. maybe a lot longer than any of us (potentially weak hands, including myself) have to have sufficient patience to wait it out and keep buying more than we sell if we really believe in BTC as the best of the cryptos.

I guess it depends on why a person buys Bitcoin. If one buys bitcoins to sell them, it's not surprising to see a certain amount of impatience. "We want the world and we want it now."

Those of us in slow-accumulation mode don't care. If the price goes down, it's a buying opportunity. If the price goes up too sharply, it means that if we absolutely must sell some coins, we'll make a larger fiat profit. Win-win.

I agree with what you are saying, and my thinking has somewhat evolved on this matter over the past nearly 2.5 years that I have been buying bitcoin.

I am not sure exactly my strategy if we were to have another 10x bubble in the near future because that kind of price movement, depending on whether it occurs quickly, would cause a lot of temptation to sell a lot of bitcoins; however, even with a 10x increase in the price, a person would not need to sell all of his/her bitcoins in order to take reasonable measures to protect the investment.

For example, if a person has about 100BTC, then he knows that every dollar BTC goes up, he has $100 profits.  Therefore, he could sell some of those profits and maintain the principle... There are probably as many strategies as there are people; however, I am mostly similar to you in the sense that I am attempting to accumulate overall (even though at the moment, your average BTC buy price seems to be a whole hell-a-va lot lower than mine)

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[JimboToronto]

I am not sure exactly my strategy if we were to have another 10x bubble in the near future because that kind of price movement, depending on whether it occurs quickly, would cause a lot of temptation to sell a lot of bitcoins; however, even with a 10x increase in the price, a person would not need to sell all of his/her bitcoins in order to take reasonable measures to protect the investment.

For example, if a person has about 100BTC, then he knows that every dollar BTC goes up, he has $100 profits.  Therefore, he could sell some of those profits and maintain the principle... There are probably as many strategies as there are people; however, I am mostly similar to you in the sense that I am attempting to accumulate overall (even though at the moment, your average BTC buy price seems to be a whole hell-a-va lot lower than mine)

When I first bought bitcoins (starting at $68) I figured I'd sell enough to recoup my original investment when the price had tripled in value.

By the peak of the spring 2013 bubble, my average price had risen to about $120 and the market price only reached $266, a hundred bucks shy. When the "dead cat" bounce took the price back up to $155 after the crash down to $50, I sold some coins and was feeling fairly smug after making a 30% profit after a crash.

It didn't take long to realize I wanted to buy more bitcoins though. Luckily I was able to buy back in for $97. Now I realize that if I sold any coins, I'd only end up buying them back again, probably at a higher price.

I happened to get lucky with my timing then but I can't count on being that lucky again. I'm not a gambler by nature (in fact I'm adamantly anti-gambling for myself) so I'll stick to the slow and safe.

[ButtLava]

I am not sure exactly my strategy if we were to have another 10x bubble in the near future because that kind of price movement, depending on whether it occurs quickly, would cause a lot of temptation to sell a lot of bitcoins; however, even with a 10x increase in the price, a person would not need to sell all of his/her bitcoins in order to take reasonable measures to protect the investment.

For example, if a person has about 100BTC, then he knows that every dollar BTC goes up, he has $100 profits.  Therefore, he could sell some of those profits and maintain the principle... There are probably as many strategies as there are people; however, I am mostly similar to you in the sense that I am attempting to accumulate overall (even though at the moment, your average BTC buy price seems to be a whole hell-a-va lot lower than mine)

When I first bought bitcoins (starting at $68) I figured I'd sell enough to recoup my original investment when the price had tripled in value.

By the peak of the spring 2013 bubble, my average price had risen to about $120 and the market price only reached $266, a hundred bucks shy. When the "dead cat" bounce took the price back up to $155 after the crash down to $50, I sold some coins and was feeling fairly smug after making a 30% profit after a crash.

It didn't take long to realize I wanted to buy more bitcoins though. Luckily I was able to buy back in for $97. Now I realize that If I sold any coins, I'd only end up buying them back again, probably at a higher price.

I happened to get lucky with my timing then but I can't count on being that lucky again. I'm not a gambler by nature (in fact I'm adamantly anti-gambling for myself) so I'll stick to the slow and safe.

I'm not a gambler either. Tried trading, wasn't for me. It's too much exhausting work to try and stay on top of things (at least as much as is needed to be competitive in trading), so I am just an accumulator as well. My time is better spent earning money elsewhere so I can use that money to keep buying more coins. I buy them assuming I'm throwing the money away, so if they are worth $0 or $300,000 in a year I won't sell. My average buy in price is something like $200 for my 210 coins, so I feel lucky. Although my buddy Jake told me about bitcoin when they were worth like 20 bucks and I dismissed him... darn!

[JimboToronto]

I'm not a gambler either. Tried trading, wasn't for me. It's too much exhausting work to try and stay on top of things (at least as much as is needed to be competitive in trading), so I am just an accumulator as well. My time is better spent earning money elsewhere so I can use that money to keep buying more coins. I buy them assuming I'm throwing the money away, so if they are worth $0 or $300,000 in a year I won't sell. My average buy in price is something like $200 for my 210 coins, so I feel lucky. Although my buddy Jake told me about bitcoin when they were worth like 20 bucks and I dismissed him... darn!

I know what you mean. I first heard about Bitcoin when it was $12-$15. By the time I figured it wasn't a scam it was already over $30. By the time I was actually able to buy some it had doubled again. Snooze you lose.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[tomothy]

So, I'm liking the uptrend. A bit sad we didn't recover as quickly as I would have liked but I would assume that's due to unresolved and long standing philosophical differences. Still, up is up.

Bank Cryptocoins

#1 RSCOIN

https://github.com/gdanezis/rscoin

In other news, so, I see Bank of England wants to use a central bank cryptocoin, RSCoin. Those jerks. I read some of the white paper and it's a bit above me. Anyone bored enough to take a run at it to explain to us in laymens terms? I understood a bit more about their scaling, 2000 tps for 30 minettes and scalable by simply adding more minettes (expanding the decentralized network to propogate transactions of the centralized distributor). It takes a lot of the good things and bends them to the will of central banks. I guess the central bank has the encryption key to simply make more 'coins' and are sent however they feel like sending them.

I get concerned that btc is losing first mover status. At the same time I realize that such feelings could have been created as an attempt to undermine market confidence to allowe for parties to accumulate. All this 'blockchain' crap is different than 2013/2014 when it was  XYZ Corp invests in "BITCOIN". Is this the despair phase just at a 'higher' price? lol. /shrug just my $0.02 (less than the fee cost of a btc transaction these days, right?)


https://thestack.com/cloud/2016/03/10/bank-of-england-looks-into-centralised-bitcoin-alternative-rscoin/
http://arxiv.org/abs/1505.06895
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1505.06895v2.pdf


#2 Juno

https://github.com/buckie/juno
https://github.com/buckie/juno/blob/master/README.md (Watch the demo... I don't know whats going on, but its cool...)

(So I think they took what they liked from Bitcoin, combined it with what they liked in Ethereum, and they made Juno. Which is funny, get it, like the movie... "juno," about a baby. I won't lie, i'm sitting here laughing about the name. If I'm write, it's a heckuva swipe, like a mic drop. This is some dangerous stuff, in terms of, imho, mainstream adoption of non bank controlled cryptocoins, ie. btc/ltc/eth/etcetcetcf. I don't even mean bitcoin, just in general. Institutions recognize there is merit to a cryptographic currency and distributed ledger and they are running with this stuff. I'm a little bit less certain that we are going to eat their lunch. It looks like they're pulling out all the stops.

JpMorgan - https://bitcoinmagazine.com/articles/jpmorgan-unveils-juno-prototype-at-hyperledger-meeting-1457629074

Considering the debate over blockchain capacity in the Bitcoin network, scalability is, of course, the elephant in the room. With an un-optimized instance running on a MacBook Pro, Juno managed throughput of consensus of 500 per second, and 2ms latency of consensus. This is very big news. Due to restrictions in its block size, Bitcoin can process only up to seven transactions per second. In comparison, Visa’s network processes on average around 2,000 transactions per second. Juno doesn’t require anonymous participation, this has been explicitly disabled. Use of Tangaroa also removes the need for mining.
The team has identified issues that would require human input to fix, including differences in incremental hashes among Followers in the network.

#3 - BTC - I'd still argue more secure than the above. But scalability seems like it is more and more a critical issue and will be a bigger one in the future.   

[coinzat]

the market looks like there will not be any big movements this week as the price is moving between 410 to 415 for the last three days.
hope that next week will bring more active movements to the btc market

[abercrombie]

not too late, seats still available on the train.  

don't be this guy!!

Don't run into an oncoming train, even when chased by vicious Grizzly.

good catch... lol.  touché.

[bitebits]

Any word on that ETF those Twinkletossers were going to set up?

They last updated it in January 2015. Most people said that it usually takes a year from the last update so I figured it would have gone through.

Maybe they shifted focus to Gemini and aren't pushing the political buttons needed to get it through.

Considering their history they don't seem to placing their bets on just one horse. I think it is unlikely they prioritize the Gemini exchange over the ETF. It could however be that the exchange was/is some kind of precondition for the ETF to become reality.

[adamstgBit]

i do believe this is potential for a big green dildo tonight.

[tomothy]

i do believe this is potential for a big green dildo tonight.

Adam, is that possible due to upcoming futures settlements? Just wondering.

[ChartBuddy]

Coin



Explanation

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

i do believe this is potential for a big green dildo tonight.

Adam, is that possible due to upcoming futures settlements? Just wondering.

Naw. Adam runs on gut instinct, like a hungry race horse.

[JayJuanGee]

I am not sure exactly my strategy if we were to have another 10x bubble in the near future because that kind of price movement, depending on whether it occurs quickly, would cause a lot of temptation to sell a lot of bitcoins; however, even with a 10x increase in the price, a person would not need to sell all of his/her bitcoins in order to take reasonable measures to protect the investment.

For example, if a person has about 100BTC, then he knows that every dollar BTC goes up, he has $100 profits.  Therefore, he could sell some of those profits and maintain the principle... There are probably as many strategies as there are people; however, I am mostly similar to you in the sense that I am attempting to accumulate overall (even though at the moment, your average BTC buy price seems to be a whole hell-a-va lot lower than mine)

When I first bought bitcoins (starting at $68) I figured I'd sell enough to recoup my original investment when the price had tripled in value.

By the peak of the spring 2013 bubble, my average price had risen to about $120 and the market price only reached $266, a hundred bucks shy. When the "dead cat" bounce took the price back up to $155 after the crash down to $50, I sold some coins and was feeling fairly smug after making a 30% profit after a crash.

It didn't take long to realize I wanted to buy more bitcoins though. Luckily I was able to buy back in for $97. Now I realize that If I sold any coins, I'd only end up buying them back again, probably at a higher price.

I happened to get lucky with my timing then but I can't count on being that lucky again. I'm not a gambler by nature (in fact I'm adamantly anti-gambling for myself) so I'll stick to the slow and safe.

Your method of accumulating and mostly holding BTC sounds totally reasonable and likely fitting for your diversification, risk tolerance, view of bitcoin, timeline and other factors that may be relevant to you (and maybe even only known by you).

Surely, there are likely a large number of BTC strategies that are going to be fitting to people, and some will be more profitable than others, others will be safer, others will be more diversification oriented and some will be more time-consuming.

Between November 2013 and September 2015, I only bought / accumulated BTC.  I did not sell any BTC during that period, and any BTC that i did sell for transactions during that time was replaced. 

Surely, each of us has various things going on in our lives and we do not necessarily feel that it is a good use of time to create complicated trading strategies in respects to bitcoin or any other crypto.. but some people possibly love that kind of activity. 

By the way, I've never really gotten too much into any cryptos other than bitcoin, so my relevant trading experience only regards bitcoin.

In about August and September 2015, I began to tweak some of my longer term BTC plans (speculating various kinds of potential BTC price rises, including considering the possibility of another 10x bubble taking place within the coming years). 

My mid-2015 tweakings and plannings around BTC got me more and more inclined towards projecting out various scenarios to both continue to accumulate BTC and to strategically cash out portions of my BTC holdings at various price points. 

In October 2015, I put plans to practice, yet in my thinking, my plans and strategies are not really gambling because they are somewhat price agnostic while assuming a long term BTC price increases.   

Surely, any snapshot of any BTC trading strategy will in part depend upon previous positions taken...   Below is more or less my current BTC/Fiat trading position (assuming that my total BTC trading portfolio ($43,000 for example) were about 100BTC (96.37%) and  about $1,600 cash (3.63%) )


BuyPrice   BTC_tobuy           $Amt_ToBuy
$368.00           0.24334848   $89.55
$374.00           0.23944449   $89.55
$382.00           0.27350160   $104.48
$389.00           0.26857998   $104.48
$394.00           0.26517160   $104.48
$402.00           0.25989456   $104.48
$407.00           0.25670175   $104.48
$410.00           0.25482344   $104.48
$412.00           0.18113317   $74.63
 


SellPrice   BTC_toSell             $amt_toSell      
$418.00           0.21423981   $89.55
$420.50           0.21296609   $89.55
$423.00           0.21170742   $89.55
$426.00           0.21021652   $89.55
$429.00           0.27832864   $119.40
$431.00           0.27703709   $119.40
$433.00           0.27575747   $119.40
$436.00           0.27386006   $119.40
$439.00           0.27198858   $119.40
$442.00           0.27014250   $119.40
$445.00           0.30186148   $134.33
$451.00           0.29784558   $134.33
$456.00           0.29457973   $134.33
$462.00           0.51689604   $238.81
$468.00           0.51026917   $238.81

[JayJuanGee]

the market looks like there will not be any big movements this week as the price is moving between 410 to 415 for the last three days.
hope that next week will bring more active movements to the btc market

people say these kinds of things all the time, and I am not sure if it is impatience, spin or not seeing the situation for what it really is.

bitcoin is like this.  Accordingly, there could be a break out (up or down) any minute... or like you suggested, it could take a few more days.... The mere fact that it has been within a small price range in recent days does not mean it is going to stay in that price range and in fact makes it more likely that it will soon break out of that price range.. either up or down.. then it could return to the price range again... lots of things can happen with the price, even if it seems that nothing is happening at the moment.