Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[billyjoeallen]

We are down more than 8% in the last three months, even though we're 3 months closer to the halving. We are down 64% from the All Time High 28 months later, even though we are 28 months closer to the halving.


The halving is known. It's priced in.  It's the only reason we aren't trading in the $200s right now.

[AlexGR]

We have a capacity of around half a million transactions per day no matter how high the fees get.  We are closer to that limit than we were before blocks filled up.  Fees do not add capacity and only mitigate the problem without solving it.  With less room to grow, we will grow less. How is that even controversial?

Your underlying assumption is that spam=legit tx volume=growth.

I do not assume the same thing:

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chains-longer-than-10
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chains-longer-than-100

This is the number of txs when you exclude coins that have been sequentially sent over and over again for >10 or >100 times.

This is like saying, I gave you 5$ in paypal, you instantly gave it to someone else, and he instantly gave it to someone else, and this happened over 100 times in a single day (with the same money). Sounds legit

Well, if you have people that do chains of >10, >100, >1000, by sending coins between their addresses or something, they are occupying the space of >100 or >1000 ordinary txs by doing so. This is only made possible by the extremely low fee structure. If fee competition is introduced in a meaningful way, for one such chain that is eliminated, you get +1000tx capacity for normal uses.

Legacy systems won't really allow that kind of abuse. By the time you've done that a few times with a bank wire or visa or paypal, the 5$ will be gone in fees.

The halving is known. It's priced in.  It's the only reason we aren't trading in the $200s right now.

That's speculation-wise.

The daily effect of having just the half BTCs for dumping is something that will be of benefit only post-halving.

[billyjoeallen]

We have a capacity of around half a million transactions per day no matter how high the fees get.  We are closer to that limit than we were before blocks filled up.  Fees do not add capacity and only mitigate the problem without solving it.  With less room to grow, we will grow less. How is that even controversial?

Your underlying assumption is that spam=legit tx volume=growth.

I do not assume the same thing:

https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chains-longer-than-10
https://blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions-excluding-chains-longer-than-100

This is the number of txs when you exclude coins that have been sequentially sent over and over again for >10 or >100 times.

This is like saying, I gave you 5$ in paypal, you instantly gave it to someone else, and he instantly gave it to someone else, and this happened over 100 times in a single day (with the same money). Sounds legit

Well, if you have people that do chains of >10, >100, >1000, by sending coins between their addresses or something, they are occupying the space of >100 or >1000 ordinary txs by doing so. This is only made possible by the extremely low fee structure. If fee competition is introduced in a meaningful way, for one such chain that is eliminated, you get +1000tx capacity for normal uses.

Legacy systems won't really allow that kind of abuse. By the time you've done that a few times with a bank wire or visa or paypal, the 5$ will be gone in fees.

There is no way to prevent that type of abuse without also preventing legitimate marginal use cases. It's an open protocol. A transaction limit is a ham-fisted, draconian anti-spam measure that costs more than it benefits.  You either need to accept that spam is a cost of doing business, or you need to find a better anti-spam tool.

It's only a matter of time before the next spam attack, and that will doubtless trigger another sell-off. If I was an amoral opportunist, I'd do it myself and make a pile of money. Regardless, it's likely somebody will do it and smallblockers are giving that spammer the tool to use.

[hdbuck]

I haven't made a bitcoin transaction in a while.  Just did one, expecting delays, with all the hype going on.  7 confirmations in 28 minutes.  Surprised? Ah, yep.

28min?!! i hope they kept your coffee hot while waiting for the payment to confirm!

[billyjoeallen]

A spam attack could cost ~$5,000 and impose $3-4,000 in additional harddrive space and bandwidth costs PER GB to the nodes. It's a stupid attack UNLESS you can drive the price down $20 or more by causing a service disruption and then the attack can more than pay for itself.

That has already been done. I don't know if the spammer traded the sell-off he caused or not, but now he knows he can and so does everybody else.  I know of no way of preventing this except increasing transaction capacity. 

We are sitting ducks.

[becoin]

yeah the blocks being full was starting to become obvious and a problem.. they are full 24/7 now .

Obviously adoption is accelerating. How can this be a problem?

Is it easier to disrupt the road system at 3 a.m. or during rush hour? When we are running so close to capacity, we become more vulnerable to intentional and unintentional service disruptions.

Sure, you can say that these are not attacks and we should allow everyone to use Bitcoin as they see fit, but let's try a simpler example. If someone loots all the toilet paper from the public toilet, is that a bad thing? Is the solution to double the amount of toilet paper stocked each day?

[JayJuanGee]

I haven't made a bitcoin transaction in a while.  Just did one, expecting delays, with all the hype going on.  7 confirmations in 28 minutes.  Surprised? Ah, yep.

Yep... there is a lot of unsubstantiated talk going on regarding clogged blocks.  In the past couple of months, I have made more than 30 transactions, and most were completely confirmed (useable with at least 3 confirmations) in less than an hour... I tried a few transactions with low to no fees (near freebies), just to see for myself, and those freebies took longer but were all confirmed and useable in less than 10 hours.

10 hours later he finally gets his happy meal .

Yes, with a happy ending, too.   

[billyjoeallen]

yeah the blocks being full was starting to become obvious and a problem.. they are full 24/7 now .

Obviously adoption is accelerating. How can this be a problem?

Is it easier to disrupt the road system at 3 a.m. or during rush hour? When we are running so close to capacity, we become more vulnerable to intentional and unintentional service disruptions.

Sure, you can say that these are not attacks and we should allow everyone to use Bitcoin as they see fit, but let's try a simpler example. If someone loots all the toilet paper from the public toilet, is that a bad thing? Is the solution to double the amount of toilet paper stocked each day?

Yeah, I read the Mow interview.  I know there are attacks. Some of the transactions are spam and some aren't. To use your (Mow's) analogy, the answer depends on if you see more benefit to the double toiletpaper costs than drawbacks.  Toilet paper and hard drive space is cheap.  How many customers are you willing to drive away to prevent free-riding parasitism? 

I'm not opposed to anti-spam measures, just this particular measure because it's too costly.  You want to cure a headache will a guillotine. It may work, but at what cost? 

[marcus_of_augustus]

A spam attack .... It's a stupid attack UNLESS ..... the attack ....

..... the spammer ...... increasing transaction capacity.  

We are sitting ducks.

Just leave already.

[billyjoeallen]

A spam attack .... It's a stupid attack UNLESS ..... the attack ....

..... the spammer ...... increasing transaction capacity.  

We are sitting ducks.

Just leave already.

Why don't you just charge a fee to post so us "spammers" will leave, Numbnuts?

[alyssa85]

I haven't made a bitcoin transaction in a while.  Just did one, expecting delays, with all the hype going on.  7 confirmations in 28 minutes.  Surprised? Ah, yep.

28min?!! i hope they kept your coffee hot while waiting for the payment to confirm!

LOL. This is the real problem with BTC. Ideally all the confirms should be done in five minutes, if that.

[marcus_of_augustus]

I haven't made a bitcoin transaction in a while.  Just did one, expecting delays, with all the hype going on.  7 confirmations in 28 minutes.  Surprised? Ah, yep.

28min?!! i hope they kept your coffee hot while waiting for the payment to confirm!

LOL. This is the real problem with BTC. Ideally all the confirms should be done in five minutes, if that.

no, the real problem at the moment is ignorant people who have no clue what they are talking about.

Expecting faster confirms is simply idiotic, the system does not work like that, never has done, never will. If you want faster transactions use a higher layer (or god forbid get off your complaining asses and build a better on).

[bargainbin]

...
Expecting faster confirms is simply idiotic, the system does not work like that, never has done, never will. If you want faster transactions use a higher layer (or god forbid get off your complaining asses and build a better on).

ya i no, rite?
To think the rubes actually thought this thing was gonna be a world currency lol. Hook, line and sinker!
BTCeanies would make for saner, moar frictionless commerce!

[marcus_of_augustus]

classic rubes are gonna dump for the last time, HODLERS will stay strong and pick up the cheap coinz then we are off to the races.

[aztecminer]

We are down more than 8% in the last three months, even though we're 3 months closer to the halving. We are down 64% from the All Time High 28 months later, even though we are 28 months closer to the halving.


The halving is known. It's priced in.  It's the only reason we aren't trading in the $200s right now.

all-time high was due to Mark Karpeles pumps, our current price is due to the marshals auction pump .. i do not believe in coincidences . i'm not convinced .. had we not had the scaling issue then i would believe bitcoin was worth $400+ ... however, scaling issue is so big that chartbuddy disappeared from the forum for posting full blocks. the halvening is really the scaling worsening . we should still be trading in the $200 range.. the marshal's pump really helped to confirm what i was thinking about bitcoin.. it also caused me to buy silver at its recent low. we only have 9 more months of obamaturds.

[aztecminer]

I haven't made a bitcoin transaction in a while.  Just did one, expecting delays, with all the hype going on.  7 confirmations in 28 minutes.  Surprised? Ah, yep.

28min?!! i hope they kept your coffee hot while waiting for the payment to confirm!

they had him wait in the "special" line for "special needs" peoples who need wait on bitcoin to confirm #GimpedCoin

[JayJuanGee]

...
Expecting faster confirms is simply idiotic, the system does not work like that, never has done, never will. If you want faster transactions use a higher layer (or god forbid get off your complaining asses and build a better on).

ya i no, rite?
To think the rubes actually thought this thing was gonna be a world currency lol. Hook, line and sinker!
BTCeanies would make for saner, moar frictionless commerce!

Change comes about incrementally.


We don't walk before crawling or run before walking.

At the moment, whether "this thing" becomes a world currency remains a considerable speculation that is not out of the question, but a whole hell-of-a long way into the future (if it were to happen) with a lot of likely stubbles along the way....


world currency is not out of the question, even though it is quite hyperbolic to consider it to be even within the realms of possibilities in less than 10 years after bitcoin's introduction.

Bitcoin remains in a very good position today... and probably even stronger after traversing through the XT/classic mumbo jumbo, which may also take a while to get through this controversy, since there continue to be a bunch of loud mouth's screaming that the sky is falling (when it's not)

 

[explorer]

I haven't made a bitcoin transaction in a while.  Just did one, expecting delays, with all the hype going on.  7 confirmations in 28 minutes.  Surprised? Ah, yep.

28min?!! i hope they kept your coffee hot while waiting for the payment to confirm!

they had him wait in the "special" line for "special needs" peoples who need wait on bitcoin to confirm #GimpedCoin

Yep. Free hot coffee, and a blowjob while you wait.  Won't let you take the rocket launchers home until at least 6 confirmations though, so had to wait almost 1/2 hour.  But with the excellent service, who cares?

[Meuh6879]

stop FUD ... not at a single bitcoin vendor wait the 1st confirmation.

why ?

because CHARGEBACK don't exist on Bitcoin network.
regulery CHARGEBACK on vendor is between 4 and 9% of the whole year payment ...

[2015Bubble]

Breaking out of the channel?