Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ingiltere]

Bitstamp 415.74
BTC-e 413.7
Bitfinex 416.62
Huobi 418.24

It used to give arbitrage chances between exchanges but now we can't see that. The gap is very close.

[JimboToronto]

Hi, Jimbo

i hope you feel better soon, btw what would you think if bitcoin stay at 400 range for- eva and other coin reach 200000 usd range instead

Thanks. I'm already feeling much better. Hope fully my doctor will verify how I feel when I see her tomorrow afternoon. In the meantime I'll just keep taking my antibiotics and steroids and rest as much as possible.
______

As for Bitcoin staying around $416 forever and some altcoin going to the moon, I definitely don't see it happening. Once this blocksize/scaling issue is resolved the price will skyrocket regardless of the block reward halving.

I cant see any current altcoin challenging Bitcoin. Ethereum is a programming platform not a currency (IMHO) and nothing else is close.

Litecoin only went as far as it did because individuals could scrypt mine it on their old multi-GPU rigs after FPGAs and ASICs took over SHA256 mining. Scrypt ASICs killed that.

Maybe someone will create a breakthrough coin that is a game changer, but until then I'll stick with Bitcoin.

[hendra147]

Bitstamp 415.74
BTC-e 413.7
Bitfinex 416.62
Huobi 418.24

It used to give arbitrage chances between exchanges but now we can't see that. The gap is very close.

arbitrage..?
nice joke

[adamstgBit]

what would you think if bitcoin stay at 400 range for- eva and other coin reach 200000 usd range instead

Maybe someone will create a breakthrough coin that is a game changer

[adamstgBit]

back in my day things look like this



now things look like this



Cant complain!

[noobtrader]

back in my day things look like this



Cant complain!

u know i almost become bitcoineer when it was less than 10 usd, but at that  moment i cant understand what and how to use wallet, and how to mine. then i try again harder when btc reach 1000... 

btw multibit really help me a lot.

[JimboToronto]

Alpaca my sox.

[STT]

In 40 pages not a damn person can put up an argument for why Eth isn't a dysfunctional scam because the coin doesn't and can't work:

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1361602.0

The coin is useful to some people, I used to wonder the same thing about bitcoin.  Why bother as we have normal currency which is sent digitally anyway but I was wrong and it was of greater use then I imagined.   all they have to do is provide utility which many people especially globally distributed then use, value is added and price is justified to some extent.   volatility and speculation are normal as well.  
Maybe you are correct but the better view might be innocent till found guilty, no point presuming the worst without something solid to suggest its any worse then current cryptocurrency though of course the entire deal can still be doubted

Transactions can be bundled in Bitcoin without much of a side effect in order to scale

Its upto the market to sort competitive advantages between products, sources of success are often baffling to those in a market who see it as unnecessary in its existence.  If right the price will correct I guess

[adamstgBit]

i've ploted the blocklimit debate

my conclusion is we are close to forming consensus!!

[adamstgBit]

[Chef Ramsay]

Hi, Jimbo

i hope you feel better soon, btw what would you think if bitcoin stay at 400 range for- eva and other coin reach 200000 usd range instead

I wouldn't write off LTC just yet, Jimbo. If it doesn't run up w/BTC coming up here then you're right. But, my guess is that LTC will jet up in such a disbelief that you'll wish you had some. The fraud coins are pumping now and the real ones will bust up later on. Deal?

[JimboToronto]

my conclusion is we are close to forming consensus!!

It's about time.
_____

@ Chef Ramsey:

Maybe you're right and LTC will rise again but I still feel it had its day and will be left behind. We'll see.

[mogrith]

I'm not using it it at an ATM. But my Shift card works fine to buy gas at the pump, online TX, restaurants, groceries, etc.

BTC moving down, ETH moving up  

It's almost starting to look like ETH might take over.

I better go buy an ETH debit card then to spend all of these ETHs.

Or go visit an ETH accepting restaurant.

I can use them to buy things at Amazon for a discount right?

A convoluted way to use a debit card and Amazon coupons. I hope BTC has more going for it than that.

Being able to drop your bank and use an international currency that has a finite amount...I'd say that's quite a bit.

Can I do that with ethereums?

not yet...

To be fair, can't do that with Bitcoin either -- Elwar's still getting his bank cards rejected by various ATMs.

@AlexGR: your 16nm story looks like utter crap

That is correct. We have just a handful of chips right now and all are used for R&D and profiling including occasional rapid unscheduled disassembly as we look for the limits of the chip . We are expecting the engineering lots in a few weeks time. Luckily our schedule was not affected by the recent Taiwan earthquake.

Our total hash power has increased due to our Gldani immersion cooling datacenter getting to full capacity.

[AlexGR]

>Now, when the 40% upgraded their mining operations, their 40 petahash became 160 petahash for the same watts.
The hashrate represents *additional* hashpower from new gear. Last gen hardware is still profitable to mine (other pig farmers are running it, so must be).

Yes but you are not buying obsolete hardware when the halvening is around the corner. That won't even make you a ROI for the hardware.

Also unreasonable to assume that all of the extra hashpower is from new gen chips -- that would imply that the rest of chip manufacturers/gear manufacturers have sold exactly no product since the new BitFury chips hit the market. Pretty difficult to swallow, because doesn't jive with reality.

Yeah the assumption is just to illustrate the example. It's not how actual mining works. In reality, it's about +1 or +2 generation backwards... there could be a lot of 50+ nm chips mining along with 20nm+ chips, and what will probably go out the window are the 50nm+. Even very old hardware can be profitable if electricity is at near zero cost, but, at some point, it won't be. Although that doesn't mean they represent any serious hashrate (by the time they are out).

The 16nm story is just an example of how there is evolution in terms of performance, as well as lower consumption - which allows to produce same hashrates with much less equipment, automatically reducing the % of slice of the pie (in terms of hashrate) that belongs to old mining hardware.

Well yeah, that doesn't work because everyone else is mining your spot too, some with picks and pans, some with dredges just like yours. As you mentioned, more of your fancy dredges came over in the past five months. As n 3x more Now your newfangled dredge is dredging only 1/3 (one third) as many digital pigs as it did just 5 months ago. And come teh Halvening, it's gonna be *less than 1/6th* (because not just Halvening, but also more dredges showed up to dredge your spot in the meantime).

So yeah, to say that the Halvening is gonna be devastating is an understatement.
It's gonna be *disruptive*

Again, I seriously doubt that hashrate representing 2/3 of the network, and which comes online months before the halvening, will be ...obsolete. The "ground" is the same, but at least you are "not burning that much diesel to get the gold" - so better hardware allow more profitability for the remaining players, even with a halvening event...

Personally I don't expect more than a 15-25% hash slowdown if price levels are >400. It could be far less with prices at 500-600 or beyond but problematic if price goes down to 200. And there are bonus circumstances which could help, like further chinese devaluation which could make electricity costs in china even cheaper in USD$ terms. The miner is getting paid in USD but his costs in USD get lower due to CNY going lower. I think since summer it went down from 1 USD to 6.2 CNY to 6.5 CNY, which is around a 5% slide. I have no idea if electric costs remained the same (in CNY terms), but if they did, it's automatically +5% more profitable since the main revenue stream is USD.

[Elwar]

To be fair, can't do that with Bitcoin either -- Elwar's still getting his bank cards rejected by various ATMs.

I can.

I have never had my Bitcoin debit card rejected by an ATM.

[bargainbin]

^^
Yeah, not the point.

... Being able to drop your bank ...

You didn't do that. Still buying & selling your FunBux for actual money.
Like BTCeanie speculators buy & sell their BTCeanies for actual money

[bargainbin]

>Now, when the 40% upgraded their mining operations, their 40 petahash became 160 petahash for the same watts.
The hashrate represents *additional* hashpower from new gear. Last gen hardware is still profitable to mine (other pig farmers are running it, so must be).

Yes but you are not buying obsolete hardware when the halvening is around the corner. That won't even make you a ROI for the hardware.

Also unreasonable to assume that all of the extra hashpower is from new gen chips -- that would imply that the rest of chip manufacturers/gear manufacturers have sold exactly no product since the new BitFury chips hit the market. Pretty difficult to swallow, because doesn't jive with reality.

Yeah the assumption is just to illustrate the example. It's not how actual mining works. In reality, it's about +1 or +2 generation backwards... there could be a lot of 50+ nm chips mining along with 20nm+ chips, and what will probably go out the window are the 50nm+. Even very old hardware can be profitable if electricity is at near zero cost, but, at some point, it won't be. Although that doesn't mean they represent any serious hashrate (by the time they are out).

The 16nm story is just an example of how there is evolution in terms of performance, as well as lower consumption - which allows to produce same hashrates with much less equipment, automatically reducing the % of slice of the pie (in terms of hashrate) that belongs to old mining hardware.

Well yeah, that doesn't work because everyone else is mining your spot too, some with picks and pans, some with dredges just like yours. As you mentioned, more of your fancy dredges came over in the past five months. As n 3x more Now your newfangled dredge is dredging only 1/3 (one third) as many digital pigs as it did just 5 months ago. And come teh Halvening, it's gonna be *less than 1/6th* (because not just Halvening, but also more dredges showed up to dredge your spot in the meantime).

So yeah, to say that the Halvening is gonna be devastating is an understatement.
It's gonna be *disruptive*

Again, I seriously doubt that hashrate representing 2/3 of the network, and which comes online months before the halvening, will be ...obsolete. The "ground" is the same, but at least you are "not burning that much diesel to get the gold" - so better hardware allow more profitability for the remaining players, even with a halvening event...

Personally I don't expect more than a 15-25% hash slowdown if price levels are >400. It could be far less with prices at 500-600 or beyond but problematic if price goes down to 200. And there are bonus circumstances which could help, like further chinese devaluation which could make electricity costs in china even cheaper in USD$ terms. The miner is getting paid in USD but his costs in USD get lower due to CNY going lower. I think since summer it went down from 1 USD to 6.2 CNY to 6.5 CNY, which is around a 5% slide. I have no idea if electric costs remained the same (in CNY terms), but if they did, it's automatically +5% more profitable since the main revenue stream is USD.

>Yes but you are not buying obsolete hardware when the halvening is around the corner. That won't even make you a ROI for the hardware.
Broken logic.
1. The hardware is not obsolete, just less efficient than the 16nm fiction you described.
If you did basic research, you'd know that's what commercially available 16nm BitFury chips are. You didn't bother, b/c it interferes with spinning your sweet sweet best case scenario. I did.
So now you know.

2. You don't understand how pricing works. The Halvening is still months away. At the rate hashrate climbed over the past 5 mo, if you don't break even in 3 mo, you don't break even.
TL;DR: If you bought miners last November, they have completed their deprecation life cycle, worked for you and made you mone (or not).
If you waited for BitFury's 16nm pipe dream, continue waiting and dreaming.

>The 16nm story is just an example
...of bullshit. It's a bullshit story. No confirmed BitFury 16nm chips hashing in production environments. Might as well use "free BitFury 10TH/sec chips with on-chip cold fusion generator" example.

>I seriously doubt that hashrate representing 2/3 of the network, and which comes online months before the halvening, will be ...obsolete.
...that's because you don't bother to do the most rudimentary fact-gathering, extrapolating from shit premise instead.
That's what people living in cardboard boxes behind dumpsters did.
Don't do it or look for a large box nao, AlexGR.

[Elwar]

^^
Yeah, not the point.

... Being able to drop your bank ...

You didn't do that. Still buying & selling your FunBux for actual money.
Like BTCeanie speculators buy & sell their BTCeanies for actual money

I couldn't care less if other people want to make poor life choices with their inflationary currencies. I get to use a currency that gains in value over time.

All that matters is what I am able to do.

[bargainbin]

^^
So still on teh bankster's leash.  Check.

>I couldn't care less if other people
Sure you do, else you wouldn't be posting/roping in unsuspected marks into this thing of ours.

>All that matters is what I am able to do.
No one's stopping you (not where you're at, not yet). Enjoy it while you can

P.S. How's that Water World scheme of yours progressing, all good? Ready to raise the non-flag yet?

[AlexGR]

>Yes but you are not buying obsolete hardware when the halvening is around the corner. That won't even make you a ROI for the hardware.
Broken logic.
1. The hardware is not obsolete, just less efficient than the 16nm fiction you described.
If you did basic research, you'd know that's what commercially available 16nm BitFury chips are. You didn't bother, b/c it interferes with spinning your sweet sweet best case scenario. I did.
So now you know.

It's just an example, with stated assumptions like "everybody uses x chip at y nm". You said you weren't following the logic so I had to make it more tangible with a hypothetical scenario.

2. You don't understand how pricing works. The Halvening is still months away. At the rate hashrate climbed over the past 5 mo, if you don't break even in 3 mo, you don't break even.

Ok, let's say you understand it better. Can you give me your estimate of the hashrate drop come the halvening.

I say 15-25% max. If you believe it'll be closer to 50%, with a logic like "half reward = half the miners must go out of business", then just say it so, and we'll see who gets it right

>The 16nm story is just an example
...of bullshit. It's a bullshit story. No confirmed BitFury 16nm chips hashing in production environments. Might as well use "free BitFury 10TH/sec chips with on-chip cold fusion generator" example.

It doesn't matter whether 16nm chips are running or not. The example is just that. An example. It can be adjusted if you say 28nm are the cutting edge and they will replace chips that are >50nm. In any case, the example is not "real world". In the real world, one may be using fixed-rate electricity, mining at zero extra expenses, whether his equipment is 20, 40 or 100nm, thus always making profit. In this way machinery that is obsolete can be sold to people who have cheaper (or free) electricity than the former owner. Heck, they can even be used for heaters in winter