Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Tzupy]

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/russias-presidential-advisor-dismisses-bitcoin-fiction/
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/225660-bitcoin-could-soon-use-more-power-than-denmark-but-help-is-on-the-way

[Elwar]

>All that matters is what I am able to do.
No one's stopping you (not where you're at, not yet). Enjoy it while you can

Indeed, I have found that freedom lies in the small window between a new technology being released and the slow hand of government that comes to shred any grains of freedom from that comes from it. That is where I live my life. However ever-moving it is.

[bargainbin]

>Yes but you are not buying obsolete hardware when the halvening is around the corner. That won't even make you a ROI for the hardware.
Broken logic.
1. The hardware is not obsolete, just less efficient than the 16nm fiction you described.
If you did basic research, you'd know that's what commercially available 16nm BitFury chips are. You didn't bother, b/c it interferes with spinning your sweet sweet best case scenario. I did.
So now you know.

It's just an example, with stated assumptions like "everybody uses x chip at y nm". You said you weren't following the logic so I had to make it more tangible with a hypothetical scenario.

2. You don't understand how pricing works. The Halvening is still months away. At the rate hashrate climbed over the past 5 mo, if you don't break even in 3 mo, you don't break even.

Ok, let's say you understand it better. Can you give me your estimate of the hashrate drop come the halvening.

I say 15-25% max. If you believe it'll be closer to 50%, with a logic like "half reward = half the miners must go out of business", then just say it so, and we'll see who gets it right

>The 16nm story is just an example
...of bullshit. It's a bullshit story. No confirmed BitFury 16nm chips hashing in production environments. Might as well use "free BitFury 10TH/sec chips with on-chip cold fusion generator" example.

It doesn't matter whether 16nm chips are running or not. The example is just that. An example. It can be adjusted if you say 28nm are the cutting edge and they will replace chips that are >50nm. In any case, the example is not "real world". In the real world, one may be using fixed-rate electricity, mining at zero extra expenses, whether his equipment is 20, 40 or 100nm, thus always making profit. In this way machinery that is obsolete can be sold to people who have cheaper (or free) electricity than the former owner. Heck, they can even be used for heaters in winter

>[16nm is] just an example.
You asked me to assume (a hypothetical, not an example) that the majority of Bitcoin's hashpower is due to BitFury's 16nm chip. I tried to work out the cost of mining with your hypothetical, and punched "buy 16nm bitfury" into Google. Google led me to the BitFury thread on this forum, where I was told that, to the best of the poster's knowledge, THERE ARE NO COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE 16nm BitFury MINERS. This took me all of 10 minutes.

If you want to go with outlandish hypotheticals, feel free to use my "free BitFury 10TH/sec chips with on-chip cold fusion generator" example. At least, this way people will know right away that you're deluded.

>I say 15-25% max. If you believe it'll be closer to 50%
Unlike many here, I don't pull numbers out of my ass. What I said was this: When teh Halvening cometh, a substantial portion of the hashpower would be susceptible to "ren-a-hash" attack, i.e. it may no longer be in the miners' [pragmatic, financial] self-interest to maintain the value of Bitcoin.
If the above seems vague, please reread my first post

[bargainbin]

>All that matters is what I am able to do.
No one's stopping you (not where you're at, not yet). Enjoy it while you can

Indeed, I have found that freedom lies in the small window between a new technology being released and the slow hand of government that comes to shred any grains of freedom from that comes from it. That is where I live my life. However ever-moving it is.

So basically committing crimes against which no laws have been written yet (because the gubermint's too slow)? Congrats.

[AlexGR]

Unlike many here, I don't pull numbers out of my ass. What I said was this: When teh Halvening cometh, a substantial portion of the hashpower would be susceptible to "ren-a-hash" attack, i.e. it may no longer be in the miners' [pragmatic, financial] self-interest to maintain the value of Bitcoin.
If the above seems vague, please reread my first post

Alright then, we'll see how it plays out. I'll bookmark this post for reference, when nothing happens

[bargainbin]

Unlike many here, I don't pull numbers out of my ass. What I said was this: When teh Halvening cometh, a substantial portion of the hashpower would be susceptible to "ren-a-hash" attack, i.e. it may no longer be in the miners' [pragmatic, financial] self-interest to maintain the value of Bitcoin.
If the above seems vague, please reread my first post

Alright then, we'll see how it plays out. I'll bookmark this post for reference, when nothing happens

Don't misunderstand me. You might be right, just like a guy who prognosticates he won't be crowned King unless he appeases Abholos the Devourer with much blood.
He doesn't make the streets run red with blood, he's not the king, but for totally different reasons. Abholos the Devourer is neither here nor there.
See?

[Elwar]

>All that matters is what I am able to do.
No one's stopping you (not where you're at, not yet). Enjoy it while you can

Indeed, I have found that freedom lies in the small window between a new technology being released and the slow hand of government that comes to shred any grains of freedom from that comes from it. That is where I live my life. However ever-moving it is.

So basically committing crimes against which no laws have been written yet (because the gubermint's too slow)? Congrats.

A crime with no law?

I use Bitcoin now (not a crime) which will eventually be illegal (government hates freedom).

The US basically came into being thanks to the new technology of the printing press.

The Internet used to be a great place for exchanging thoughts freely.

Pirate radio brought Rock and Roll to Europe.

Hell, the initial banks were a bastion of freedom that helped many people out of poverty. Before government interference.

[bargainbin]

>All that matters is what I am able to do.
No one's stopping you (not where you're at, not yet). Enjoy it while you can

Indeed, I have found that freedom lies in the small window between a new technology being released and the slow hand of government that comes to shred any grains of freedom from that comes from it. That is where I live my life. However ever-moving it is.

So basically committing crimes against which no laws have been written yet (because the gubermint's too slow)? Congrats.

A crime with no law?

Yeah, doing bad shit that hasn't been made explicitly illegal yet, like selling shares in a company you know is going to fail, like farting at the opera, like hicktown sheriff using civil forfeiture, like beating your wife before it was illegal.
Firs there are bad things, then laws are made to stop them.
What don't you get?

I use Bitcoin now (not a crime) which will eventually be illegal (government hates freedom).

wut

The US basically came into being thanks to the new technology of the printing press.

Invented in 1440, a technology which played an insignificant part in "US [coming] into being." The more you know

The Internet used to be a great place for exchanging thoughts freely.

Hell, the initial banks were a bastion of freedom that helped many people out of poverty. Before government interference.

Wait, you hate governments, but think "US [coming] into being" (a chunk of land, once populated by loosely-knit tribes, seized by force and consolidated into what's arguably the greatest nation-state in the world) is a good thing?

[Elwar]

In 1725, Bradford moved to New York and established the New York Gazette, the first newspaper in that city and one of the first in New England.

Newspapers were a vital part of colonial life. In a society where communication between the 13 colonies, and even between towns, was discouraged, they provided the only means of spreading news other than by mere hearsay. This importance was recognized during the years preceding the War of Independence: both Colonists and British rulers employed the press to spread heated propaganda among the people. The newspapers announced the Declaration of Independence as well as Lord Cornwallis’ surrender.

The good thing about the early US was their escape from a tyrannical government. Then they turned into a tyrannical government (worse than the one they fought to escape).

[bargainbin]

In 1725, Bradford moved to New York and established the New York Gazette, the first newspaper in that city and one of the first in New England.

Newspapers were a vital part of colonial life. In a society where communication between the 13 colonies, and even between towns, was discouraged, they provided the only means of spreading news other than by mere hearsay. This importance was recognized during the years preceding the War of Independence: both Colonists and British rulers employed the press to spread heated propaganda among the people. The newspapers announced the Declaration of Independence as well as Lord Cornwallis’ surrender.

The good thing about the early US was their escape from a tyrannical government. Then they turned into a tyrannical government (worse than the one they fought to escape).

So...
In 1725, many centuries after the invention of the printing press and more than a century after the publication of the first newspaper, the New York Gazette is started in New York. Much to everyone's surprise, it prints news. News from as far afield as Massachusetts: Boston, Lexington, and Concord, where the "American Revolution" took place.
That's how the ancient technology of the printing press freed America.

Long before that magical date, freedom fighters freed the land from the plague that is the pesky Injun -- by violence, chicanery, ghettoisation & germ warfare, amounting in what today would be termed genocide.
Once in power, they worked the newly-freed land of liberty with virtually free slave labor
Hurrah for freedomz

[Elwar]

Long before that magical date, freedom fighters freed the land from the plague of pesky Injuns -- by violence, chicanery, ghettoisation & germ warfare, amounting in what today would be termed genocide.
Once in power, they worked the newly-freed land of liberty with virtually free slave labor
Hurrah for freedomz

Freedom fighters?

You mean the Spanish, French and British governments?

[Divitiae miserae]

Is chartbuddy going to come back?

[bargainbin]

Long before that magical date, freedom fighters freed the land from the plague of pesky Injuns -- by violence, chicanery, ghettoisation & germ warfare, amounting in what today would be termed genocide.
Once in power, they worked the newly-freed land of liberty with virtually free slave labor
Hurrah for freedomz

Freedom fighters?

You mean the Spanish and British governments?

Spanish governments never had much play in US; British government was clearly overstretched for meaningful control of the American colonies.
Genocide & slave labor only picked up steam once My Land of the Free got freed from unjust Brits, and the new, better & totally righteous US government took the reigns

@Divitiae miserae: Nope.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still hovering close to $416 I see.

Dare I mention mocha java?

[blunderer]

...
Dare I mention mocha java?

[billyjoeallen]

Segwit soon + 2mb fork being scheduled by core = around 4mb blocks during 2017, there's nothing to discuss about block size unless you demand 8mb now.

until it happens, it still didnt happen.. all this was already supposed to have happened, yet it never did happen.. and now your saying its going to happen supposedly soon.. just like before.. deja vu .. how about getting the work done first... and then we will stop discussing it.

exactly. It's like buying chickens from someone who only has eggs. The likelihood of eggs becoming chickens is less than a certainty, and the risk needs to be factored in.

In the mean time, spam attacks now reliably cause the price to drop ~$20 and price doesn't seem to fully recover when they are over. Buying now seems to offer more risk than reward and waiting appears to be prudent. 

I would rather buy at $600 with a 90% chance of a 10% profit than buy at $300 with a 40% chance of doubling my money. There will be plenty of time to profit if a scaling solution actually plays out,  but it hasn't played out yet and there is a real possibility that it won't. People who have a financial interest in preventing/delaying SegWit know how to do it because the smallblockers have shown them how to do it. A vocal minority can inject enough FUD by spewing technobabble to prevent a near unanimous consensus.  That's all it takes to kill an upgrade under Wladimir. 

[Meuh6879]

*Whale detected*

[Tzupy]

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
More like, whale missing in action... Whale(s) forgot to turn on the fake volume bot, or did it on purpose, for some unknown reason.

[Meuh6879]

Or ... it's the world war III.


RUN ! Trader, run !

[adamstgBit]

Is chartbuddy going to come back?

in a attempt to incentivise further decentralization of "the web of ideas" chart buddy moved to https://bitco.in/forum/threads/wall-observer.27/page-64#post-16751

join us, your voice is more clearly heard in this smaller room.