Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Elwar]

To be fair, can't do that with Bitcoin either -- Elwar's still getting his bank cards rejected by various ATMs.

I can.

I have never had my Bitcoin debit card rejected by an ATM.

[bargainbin]

^^
Yeah, not the point.

... Being able to drop your bank ...

You didn't do that. Still buying & selling your FunBux for actual money.
Like BTCeanie speculators buy & sell their BTCeanies for actual money

[bargainbin]

>Now, when the 40% upgraded their mining operations, their 40 petahash became 160 petahash for the same watts.
The hashrate represents *additional* hashpower from new gear. Last gen hardware is still profitable to mine (other pig farmers are running it, so must be).

Yes but you are not buying obsolete hardware when the halvening is around the corner. That won't even make you a ROI for the hardware.

Also unreasonable to assume that all of the extra hashpower is from new gen chips -- that would imply that the rest of chip manufacturers/gear manufacturers have sold exactly no product since the new BitFury chips hit the market. Pretty difficult to swallow, because doesn't jive with reality.

Yeah the assumption is just to illustrate the example. It's not how actual mining works. In reality, it's about +1 or +2 generation backwards... there could be a lot of 50+ nm chips mining along with 20nm+ chips, and what will probably go out the window are the 50nm+. Even very old hardware can be profitable if electricity is at near zero cost, but, at some point, it won't be. Although that doesn't mean they represent any serious hashrate (by the time they are out).

The 16nm story is just an example of how there is evolution in terms of performance, as well as lower consumption - which allows to produce same hashrates with much less equipment, automatically reducing the % of slice of the pie (in terms of hashrate) that belongs to old mining hardware.

Well yeah, that doesn't work because everyone else is mining your spot too, some with picks and pans, some with dredges just like yours. As you mentioned, more of your fancy dredges came over in the past five months. As n 3x more Now your newfangled dredge is dredging only 1/3 (one third) as many digital pigs as it did just 5 months ago. And come teh Halvening, it's gonna be *less than 1/6th* (because not just Halvening, but also more dredges showed up to dredge your spot in the meantime).

So yeah, to say that the Halvening is gonna be devastating is an understatement.
It's gonna be *disruptive*

Again, I seriously doubt that hashrate representing 2/3 of the network, and which comes online months before the halvening, will be ...obsolete. The "ground" is the same, but at least you are "not burning that much diesel to get the gold" - so better hardware allow more profitability for the remaining players, even with a halvening event...

Personally I don't expect more than a 15-25% hash slowdown if price levels are >400. It could be far less with prices at 500-600 or beyond but problematic if price goes down to 200. And there are bonus circumstances which could help, like further chinese devaluation which could make electricity costs in china even cheaper in USD$ terms. The miner is getting paid in USD but his costs in USD get lower due to CNY going lower. I think since summer it went down from 1 USD to 6.2 CNY to 6.5 CNY, which is around a 5% slide. I have no idea if electric costs remained the same (in CNY terms), but if they did, it's automatically +5% more profitable since the main revenue stream is USD.

>Yes but you are not buying obsolete hardware when the halvening is around the corner. That won't even make you a ROI for the hardware.
Broken logic.
1. The hardware is not obsolete, just less efficient than the 16nm fiction you described.
If you did basic research, you'd know that's what commercially available 16nm BitFury chips are. You didn't bother, b/c it interferes with spinning your sweet sweet best case scenario. I did.
So now you know.

2. You don't understand how pricing works. The Halvening is still months away. At the rate hashrate climbed over the past 5 mo, if you don't break even in 3 mo, you don't break even.
TL;DR: If you bought miners last November, they have completed their deprecation life cycle, worked for you and made you mone (or not).
If you waited for BitFury's 16nm pipe dream, continue waiting and dreaming.

>The 16nm story is just an example
...of bullshit. It's a bullshit story. No confirmed BitFury 16nm chips hashing in production environments. Might as well use "free BitFury 10TH/sec chips with on-chip cold fusion generator" example.

>I seriously doubt that hashrate representing 2/3 of the network, and which comes online months before the halvening, will be ...obsolete.
...that's because you don't bother to do the most rudimentary fact-gathering, extrapolating from shit premise instead.
That's what people living in cardboard boxes behind dumpsters did.
Don't do it or look for a large box nao, AlexGR.

[Elwar]

^^
Yeah, not the point.

... Being able to drop your bank ...

You didn't do that. Still buying & selling your FunBux for actual money.
Like BTCeanie speculators buy & sell their BTCeanies for actual money

I couldn't care less if other people want to make poor life choices with their inflationary currencies. I get to use a currency that gains in value over time.

All that matters is what I am able to do.

[bargainbin]

^^
So still on teh bankster's leash.  Check.

>I couldn't care less if other people
Sure you do, else you wouldn't be posting/roping in unsuspected marks into this thing of ours.

>All that matters is what I am able to do.
No one's stopping you (not where you're at, not yet). Enjoy it while you can

P.S. How's that Water World scheme of yours progressing, all good? Ready to raise the non-flag yet?

[AlexGR]

>Yes but you are not buying obsolete hardware when the halvening is around the corner. That won't even make you a ROI for the hardware.
Broken logic.
1. The hardware is not obsolete, just less efficient than the 16nm fiction you described.
If you did basic research, you'd know that's what commercially available 16nm BitFury chips are. You didn't bother, b/c it interferes with spinning your sweet sweet best case scenario. I did.
So now you know.

It's just an example, with stated assumptions like "everybody uses x chip at y nm". You said you weren't following the logic so I had to make it more tangible with a hypothetical scenario.

2. You don't understand how pricing works. The Halvening is still months away. At the rate hashrate climbed over the past 5 mo, if you don't break even in 3 mo, you don't break even.

Ok, let's say you understand it better. Can you give me your estimate of the hashrate drop come the halvening.

I say 15-25% max. If you believe it'll be closer to 50%, with a logic like "half reward = half the miners must go out of business", then just say it so, and we'll see who gets it right

>The 16nm story is just an example
...of bullshit. It's a bullshit story. No confirmed BitFury 16nm chips hashing in production environments. Might as well use "free BitFury 10TH/sec chips with on-chip cold fusion generator" example.

It doesn't matter whether 16nm chips are running or not. The example is just that. An example. It can be adjusted if you say 28nm are the cutting edge and they will replace chips that are >50nm. In any case, the example is not "real world". In the real world, one may be using fixed-rate electricity, mining at zero extra expenses, whether his equipment is 20, 40 or 100nm, thus always making profit. In this way machinery that is obsolete can be sold to people who have cheaper (or free) electricity than the former owner. Heck, they can even be used for heaters in winter

[Tzupy]

https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/russias-presidential-advisor-dismisses-bitcoin-fiction/
http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/225660-bitcoin-could-soon-use-more-power-than-denmark-but-help-is-on-the-way

[Elwar]

>All that matters is what I am able to do.
No one's stopping you (not where you're at, not yet). Enjoy it while you can

Indeed, I have found that freedom lies in the small window between a new technology being released and the slow hand of government that comes to shred any grains of freedom from that comes from it. That is where I live my life. However ever-moving it is.

[bargainbin]

>Yes but you are not buying obsolete hardware when the halvening is around the corner. That won't even make you a ROI for the hardware.
Broken logic.
1. The hardware is not obsolete, just less efficient than the 16nm fiction you described.
If you did basic research, you'd know that's what commercially available 16nm BitFury chips are. You didn't bother, b/c it interferes with spinning your sweet sweet best case scenario. I did.
So now you know.

It's just an example, with stated assumptions like "everybody uses x chip at y nm". You said you weren't following the logic so I had to make it more tangible with a hypothetical scenario.

2. You don't understand how pricing works. The Halvening is still months away. At the rate hashrate climbed over the past 5 mo, if you don't break even in 3 mo, you don't break even.

Ok, let's say you understand it better. Can you give me your estimate of the hashrate drop come the halvening.

I say 15-25% max. If you believe it'll be closer to 50%, with a logic like "half reward = half the miners must go out of business", then just say it so, and we'll see who gets it right

>The 16nm story is just an example
...of bullshit. It's a bullshit story. No confirmed BitFury 16nm chips hashing in production environments. Might as well use "free BitFury 10TH/sec chips with on-chip cold fusion generator" example.

It doesn't matter whether 16nm chips are running or not. The example is just that. An example. It can be adjusted if you say 28nm are the cutting edge and they will replace chips that are >50nm. In any case, the example is not "real world". In the real world, one may be using fixed-rate electricity, mining at zero extra expenses, whether his equipment is 20, 40 or 100nm, thus always making profit. In this way machinery that is obsolete can be sold to people who have cheaper (or free) electricity than the former owner. Heck, they can even be used for heaters in winter

>[16nm is] just an example.
You asked me to assume (a hypothetical, not an example) that the majority of Bitcoin's hashpower is due to BitFury's 16nm chip. I tried to work out the cost of mining with your hypothetical, and punched "buy 16nm bitfury" into Google. Google led me to the BitFury thread on this forum, where I was told that, to the best of the poster's knowledge, THERE ARE NO COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE 16nm BitFury MINERS. This took me all of 10 minutes.

If you want to go with outlandish hypotheticals, feel free to use my "free BitFury 10TH/sec chips with on-chip cold fusion generator" example. At least, this way people will know right away that you're deluded.

>I say 15-25% max. If you believe it'll be closer to 50%
Unlike many here, I don't pull numbers out of my ass. What I said was this: When teh Halvening cometh, a substantial portion of the hashpower would be susceptible to "ren-a-hash" attack, i.e. it may no longer be in the miners' [pragmatic, financial] self-interest to maintain the value of Bitcoin.
If the above seems vague, please reread my first post

[bargainbin]

>All that matters is what I am able to do.
No one's stopping you (not where you're at, not yet). Enjoy it while you can

Indeed, I have found that freedom lies in the small window between a new technology being released and the slow hand of government that comes to shred any grains of freedom from that comes from it. That is where I live my life. However ever-moving it is.

So basically committing crimes against which no laws have been written yet (because the gubermint's too slow)? Congrats.

[AlexGR]

Unlike many here, I don't pull numbers out of my ass. What I said was this: When teh Halvening cometh, a substantial portion of the hashpower would be susceptible to "ren-a-hash" attack, i.e. it may no longer be in the miners' [pragmatic, financial] self-interest to maintain the value of Bitcoin.
If the above seems vague, please reread my first post

Alright then, we'll see how it plays out. I'll bookmark this post for reference, when nothing happens

[bargainbin]

Unlike many here, I don't pull numbers out of my ass. What I said was this: When teh Halvening cometh, a substantial portion of the hashpower would be susceptible to "ren-a-hash" attack, i.e. it may no longer be in the miners' [pragmatic, financial] self-interest to maintain the value of Bitcoin.
If the above seems vague, please reread my first post

Alright then, we'll see how it plays out. I'll bookmark this post for reference, when nothing happens

Don't misunderstand me. You might be right, just like a guy who prognosticates he won't be crowned King unless he appeases Abholos the Devourer with much blood.
He doesn't make the streets run red with blood, he's not the king, but for totally different reasons. Abholos the Devourer is neither here nor there.
See?

[Elwar]

>All that matters is what I am able to do.
No one's stopping you (not where you're at, not yet). Enjoy it while you can

Indeed, I have found that freedom lies in the small window between a new technology being released and the slow hand of government that comes to shred any grains of freedom from that comes from it. That is where I live my life. However ever-moving it is.

So basically committing crimes against which no laws have been written yet (because the gubermint's too slow)? Congrats.

A crime with no law?

I use Bitcoin now (not a crime) which will eventually be illegal (government hates freedom).

The US basically came into being thanks to the new technology of the printing press.

The Internet used to be a great place for exchanging thoughts freely.

Pirate radio brought Rock and Roll to Europe.

Hell, the initial banks were a bastion of freedom that helped many people out of poverty. Before government interference.

[bargainbin]

>All that matters is what I am able to do.
No one's stopping you (not where you're at, not yet). Enjoy it while you can

Indeed, I have found that freedom lies in the small window between a new technology being released and the slow hand of government that comes to shred any grains of freedom from that comes from it. That is where I live my life. However ever-moving it is.

So basically committing crimes against which no laws have been written yet (because the gubermint's too slow)? Congrats.

A crime with no law?

Yeah, doing bad shit that hasn't been made explicitly illegal yet, like selling shares in a company you know is going to fail, like farting at the opera, like hicktown sheriff using civil forfeiture, like beating your wife before it was illegal.
Firs there are bad things, then laws are made to stop them.
What don't you get?

I use Bitcoin now (not a crime) which will eventually be illegal (government hates freedom).

wut

The US basically came into being thanks to the new technology of the printing press.

Invented in 1440, a technology which played an insignificant part in "US [coming] into being." The more you know

The Internet used to be a great place for exchanging thoughts freely.

Hell, the initial banks were a bastion of freedom that helped many people out of poverty. Before government interference.

Wait, you hate governments, but think "US [coming] into being" (a chunk of land, once populated by loosely-knit tribes, seized by force and consolidated into what's arguably the greatest nation-state in the world) is a good thing?

[Elwar]

In 1725, Bradford moved to New York and established the New York Gazette, the first newspaper in that city and one of the first in New England.

Newspapers were a vital part of colonial life. In a society where communication between the 13 colonies, and even between towns, was discouraged, they provided the only means of spreading news other than by mere hearsay. This importance was recognized during the years preceding the War of Independence: both Colonists and British rulers employed the press to spread heated propaganda among the people. The newspapers announced the Declaration of Independence as well as Lord Cornwallis’ surrender.

The good thing about the early US was their escape from a tyrannical government. Then they turned into a tyrannical government (worse than the one they fought to escape).

[bargainbin]

In 1725, Bradford moved to New York and established the New York Gazette, the first newspaper in that city and one of the first in New England.

Newspapers were a vital part of colonial life. In a society where communication between the 13 colonies, and even between towns, was discouraged, they provided the only means of spreading news other than by mere hearsay. This importance was recognized during the years preceding the War of Independence: both Colonists and British rulers employed the press to spread heated propaganda among the people. The newspapers announced the Declaration of Independence as well as Lord Cornwallis’ surrender.

The good thing about the early US was their escape from a tyrannical government. Then they turned into a tyrannical government (worse than the one they fought to escape).

So...
In 1725, many centuries after the invention of the printing press and more than a century after the publication of the first newspaper, the New York Gazette is started in New York. Much to everyone's surprise, it prints news. News from as far afield as Massachusetts: Boston, Lexington, and Concord, where the "American Revolution" took place.
That's how the ancient technology of the printing press freed America.

Long before that magical date, freedom fighters freed the land from the plague that is the pesky Injun -- by violence, chicanery, ghettoisation & germ warfare, amounting in what today would be termed genocide.
Once in power, they worked the newly-freed land of liberty with virtually free slave labor
Hurrah for freedomz

[Elwar]

Long before that magical date, freedom fighters freed the land from the plague of pesky Injuns -- by violence, chicanery, ghettoisation & germ warfare, amounting in what today would be termed genocide.
Once in power, they worked the newly-freed land of liberty with virtually free slave labor
Hurrah for freedomz

Freedom fighters?

You mean the Spanish, French and British governments?

[Divitiae miserae]

Is chartbuddy going to come back?

[bargainbin]

Long before that magical date, freedom fighters freed the land from the plague of pesky Injuns -- by violence, chicanery, ghettoisation & germ warfare, amounting in what today would be termed genocide.
Once in power, they worked the newly-freed land of liberty with virtually free slave labor
Hurrah for freedomz

Freedom fighters?

You mean the Spanish and British governments?

Spanish governments never had much play in US; British government was clearly overstretched for meaningful control of the American colonies.
Genocide & slave labor only picked up steam once My Land of the Free got freed from unjust Brits, and the new, better & totally righteous US government took the reigns

@Divitiae miserae: Nope.

[JimboToronto]

Good morning Bitcoinland.

Still hovering close to $416 I see.

Dare I mention mocha java?