Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[beastmodeBiscuitGravy]

Still way too early to call.

I mean, let's assume they lost 50% of their holdings in customer funds, then yeah, what you say could be correct.

At this time, we do not have enough information to confirm that they lost 50% of customer funds, and we are really in the dark until Bitfinex makes some kind of clarifying statement to give us some kind of ballpark idea of the real scope of the problem (even if they are not completely transparent about it, we still need to get some thing from them or some other authority that is able to more solidly confirm the matter), and price could shoot upwards or downwards based on the disclosures of actual facts... and it is even possible that BTC prices are currently going back up somewhat in anticipation that the news is not as bad as the worse case scenarios that are currently being painted.

Dude, our grammatically challenged friend pumpy just showed you the scope of the problem.

dude u should follow this https://np.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/4vtv1m/bitfinex_down_due_to_bitcoin_security_breach/d61oetn?context=3&st=ire3xc91&sh=1b8fd2f8

It's 119,756 BTC, some of that probably yours.

You think there is a chance of running an admitted fractional reserve exchange? Please. They need to be unwound now, and that's gonna be messy, it could be a years long process if Gox is any guide.

[yefi]

!!!!!DO NOT LEAVE YOUR COINZ ON EXCHANGES YOU FUCKING MORONS!!!!!

Depends how successful a trader you are. It's possible to make some insane % profits in the alt markets, certainly more than the attendant exchange risk. The key is to return those profits to your wallet to cover your risk exposure.

[adamstgBit]

Estimating Finex's weekly volume at around BTC134k so about BTC6,968k/yr traded on finex. At ~ 0.25%fee on each trade Finex makes BTC17.5k/yr in fees. Depending how much BTC they held, and how much they have in assets, probably the best thing would be to try to run it as a fractional reserve with 50% in finexcoins.

they also make BIG profit when long and short get liquidated ( i would assume? )
and/or fee for swaps.
I think if they the lose represents <50% of their total holdings, maybe they could survive and work on a fractional reserve for like 10 years.

idk why but this seems like a pipe dream.

poeple will demand their deposits the first chance they get, and when bitfinex cant do that, they will take'm to court

[spiderbrain]

!!!!!DO NOT LEAVE YOUR COINZ ON EXCHANGES YOU FUCKING MORONS!!!!!

This.

[Vegetablepin]

[Dafar]

Meh, whatever, I just bought some more. BTC didn't get hacked, BFX did, these are the perfect dip buying scenarios because you know it's gonna be temporary. It may end up being a longer setback than I want it to be, but as far as I'm concerned those 120K coins are off this market. Every law enforcement agency and bitcoin exchange is gonna be tracking those funds. It will be hard and stupid to cash out the bitfinex btc anytime soon.

On the bright side no one's talking about core's delay on segwit and the 2mb block increase... this is good for bitcoin!

[DaRude]

Estimating Finex's weekly volume at around BTC134k so about BTC6,968k/yr traded on finex. At ~ 0.25%fee on each trade Finex makes BTC17.5k/yr in fees. Depending how much BTC they held, and how much they have in assets, probably the best thing would be to try to run it as a fractional reserve with 50% in finexcoins.

they also make BIG profit when long and short get liquidated ( i would assume? )
and/or fee for swaps.
I think if they the lose represents <50% of their total holdings, maybe they could survive and work on a fractional reserve for like 10 years.

idk why but this seems like a pipe dream.

poeple will demand their deposits the first chance they get, and when bitfinex cant do that, they will take'm to court

Yeah the rep said that the majority wasn't hacked so must be <50%

Didn't some smaller exchange do this? Before they got hacked again and then finally gave up and went belly up?

Yes i didn't include their profit from alts trading or their swaps (i'm estimating about $650k/yr profit just from USD longs)

They have huge volume and brand recognition so there's a chance of someone buying them up, if they won't/can't run fractional? Winterflosses? Full out bankruptcy would be the very last option.

[Flyskyhigh]

Estimating Finex's weekly volume at around BTC134k so about BTC6,968k/yr traded on finex. At ~ 0.25%fee on each trade Finex makes BTC17.5k/yr in fees. Depending how much BTC they held, and how much they have in assets, probably the best thing would be to try to run it as a fractional reserve with 50% in finexcoins.

Didn't Cryptsy try running a fractional reserve after they got hacked? It kept them afloat for a bit, but as people stop trading there it wasn't sustainable, then they upped the withdrawal fees, to try to keep the money on the exchange, then the eventually just took what was left of everybody's coins fled the country.


If you have ANY coins at all left stuck on BitFinex I would say you will be lucky fortunate to get them back.

[DaRude]

!!!!!DO NOT LEAVE YOUR COINZ ON EXCHANGES YOU FUCKING MORONS!!!!!

This.

Very naive, asset needs to be liquid to have value. To be liquid we need a place to exchange it for other assets, and that exchange place needs to be able to handle needed volume, and to do that someone needs to hold a lot of cash and assets on said exchange

[adamstgBit]

Estimating Finex's weekly volume at around BTC134k so about BTC6,968k/yr traded on finex. At ~ 0.25%fee on each trade Finex makes BTC17.5k/yr in fees. Depending how much BTC they held, and how much they have in assets, probably the best thing would be to try to run it as a fractional reserve with 50% in finexcoins.

they also make BIG profit when long and short get liquidated ( i would assume? )
and/or fee for swaps.
I think if they the lose represents <50% of their total holdings, maybe they could survive and work on a fractional reserve for like 10 years.

idk why but this seems like a pipe dream.

poeple will demand their deposits the first chance they get, and when bitfinex cant do that, they will take'm to court

Yeah the rep said that the majority wasn't hacked so must be <50%

Didn't some smaller exchange do this? Before they got hacked again and then finally gave up and went belly up?

Yes i didn't include their profit from alts trading or their swaps (i'm estimating about $650k/yr profit just from USD longs)

They have huge volume and brand recognition so there's a chance of someone buying them up, if they won't/can't run fractional? Winterflosses? Full out bankruptcy would be the very last option.

dont they all do this to some degree?
expect for kraken http://www.coindesk.com/krakens-audit-proves-holds-100-bitcoins-reserve/  

the rep said that? ok maybe its not so bad, maybe they hold 1million coins worth of BTC + LTC + ETC + the fiat
and the lose only represents like 10% of their total holdings.

right maybe a deal will be struck, who knows.

[fichtn12345]

!!!!!DO NOT LEAVE YOUR COINZ ON EXCHANGES YOU FUCKING MORONS!!!!!

This.

Very naive, asset needs to be liquid to have value. To be liquid we need a place to exchange it for other assets, and that exchange place needs to be able to handle needed volume, and to do that someone needs to hold a lot of cash and assets on said exchange

imho we need decentralized exchanges.

[Dafar]

He's trying to call you out on post 1112 adamstg 

 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.1100;topicseen

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Still way too early to call.


I mean, let's assume they lost 50% of their holdings in customer funds, then yeah, what you say could be correct.

At this time, we do not have enough information to confirm that they lost 50% of customer funds, and we are really in the dark until Bitfinex makes some kind of clarifying statement to give us some kind of ballpark idea of the real scope of the problem (even if they are not completely transparent about it, we still need to get some thing from them or some other authority that is able to more solidly confirm the matter), and price could shoot upwards or downwards based on the disclosures of actual facts... and it is even possible that BTC prices are currently going back up somewhat in anticipation that the news is not as bad as the worse case scenarios that are currently being painted.

i'm trying to find out how much BTC they held in total

i've found nothing .

I learnt that they they held 102.5% of customer deposits and have the best security ever, with 99.5% in "cold storage." lol.

I think that a lot of us are in a state of credulity regarding what appears to be the severity of the loss in this situation, and then especially the way that Bitfinex went down today, the nature of their notice and their so far failure to clarify the situation with more specifics. 

It surely would be nice if they truly did exercise any level of security close to that with their systems .. but, yeah, i think a lot of us are having considerable doubts about whether those are valid security claims... and then access to cold storage would be through only a limited number of Bitfinex agents.. and security does not always prevent insider jobs, but then again, there could be some ability to trace insider jobs, too.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Think you somehow need to know your bitgo address? where funds are settled daily?

Estimating Finex's weekly volume at around BTC134k so about BTC6,968k/yr traded on finex. At ~ 0.25%fee on each trade Finex makes BTC17.5k/yr in fees. Depending how much BTC they held, and how much they have in assets, probably the best thing would be to try to run it as a fractional reserve with 50% in finexcoins.

I'm not sure from where you are getting the average of .25% fees, but in the regular exchange, I had written down maker fees as .1% and taker fees as .2%.. (so .3% total on both sides of the trade). and then fees scale down for volume, and there are the other services too.... but o.k... rough estimate of 17.5k per year in fees.

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

go back a page or 2, i ask you nicely how many coins u lose, i then post again with a reddit link to you, giving u more info from bitfinex zane...and as for my comment about u listening to me, it was only 2days ago when i said we break $600 but u as usual think u were KORect( duno why u chose that spelling btw,lol ) and u know yourself about when i told u to buy the other coin and u chose not too.
Any i know u always got an itch on yer ass to reply to every single comment here even when your not involved so even if i tell you not to reply to anything i say ...you always will,lol  
now go ...buy ETH lololol
am I NOT KORect?  

also dont think you realise i was first to post here about bitfinex hack!

Look Pumpy.. you are getting caught up in a whole lot of irrelevance regarding my personal situation and attempts at unnecessary and unimportant self-congratulations... and besides you are getting so off topic that I am worried that I may spend all of this time considering and composing to you, and then I merely get deleted for being off topic by responding to your off-topicness.

I'm not going get into any discussions regarding the number of my coins potentially at issue at bitfinex when there seems to be little to no purpose for such.... but I will concede to disclose that whatever I had involved with bitfinex was less than 10% of my total bitcoin holdings.... and my holdings there is really not that relevant to our discussion regarding attempting to figure out what is going on.

Yes, I saw your post about some of the reddit thread information regarding some of the investigation of the situation, and some related threads.

Now, stop being so sensitive, self-absorbed, easily distracted by to not be named coins and my choices of language.  I gotta use this one again:     but I will supplement with this one:   

[JayJuanGee]

Still way too early to call.

I mean, let's assume they lost 50% of their holdings in customer funds, then yeah, what you say could be correct.

At this time, we do not have enough information to confirm that they lost 50% of customer funds, and we are really in the dark until Bitfinex makes some kind of clarifying statement to give us some kind of ballpark idea of the real scope of the problem (even if they are not completely transparent about it, we still need to get some thing from them or some other authority that is able to more solidly confirm the matter), and price could shoot upwards or downwards based on the disclosures of actual facts... and it is even possible that BTC prices are currently going back up somewhat in anticipation that the news is not as bad as the worse case scenarios that are currently being painted.

Dude, our grammatically challenged friend pumpy just showed you the scope of the problem.

dude u should follow this https://np.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/4vtv1m/bitfinex_down_due_to_bitcoin_security_breach/d61oetn?context=3&st=ire3xc91&sh=1b8fd2f8

It's 119,756 BTC, some of that probably yours.

You think there is a chance of running an admitted fractional reserve exchange? Please. They need to be unwound now, and that's gonna be messy, it could be a years long process if Gox is any guide.

I think that I already addressed these issues, no, and aren't we getting a bit repetitive? 

Sure, we have some information sources speculating about what could be going on at bitfinex, and we also need to hear more from bitfinex about what they are asserting and to figure out the extent that they are being frank or if the rumors and speculation points are overly exaggerated.

Yeah, we gotta take some of what they say with a grain of salt, but going on a whole bunch of speculations regarding the worst case scenarios and aftermath remedies seems to be quite a bit premature.. even though you could be correct that the situation is as bad or worse than expected... so yeah, we gotta prepare for continued volatility that could go in either direction.. neither direction is guaranteed at this point and based on the largely speculative information currently available.

[beastmodeBiscuitGravy]

I think that a lot of us are in a state of credulity regarding what appears to be the severity of the loss in this situation, and then especially the way that Bitfinex went down today, the nature of their notice and their so far failure to clarify the situation with more specifics. 

It surely would be nice if they truly did exercise any level of security close to that with their systems .. but, yeah, i think a lot of us are having considerable doubts about whether those are valid security claims... and then access to cold storage would be through only a limited number of Bitfinex agents.. and security does not always prevent insider jobs, but then again, there could be some ability to trace insider jobs, too.

I think that I already addressed these issues, no, and aren't we getting a bit repetitive? 

Sure, we have some information sources speculating about what could be going on at bitfinex, and we also need to hear more from bitfinex about what they are asserting and to figure out the extent that they are being frank or if the rumors and speculation points are overly exaggerated.

Yeah, we gotta take some of what they say with a grain of salt, but going on a whole bunch of speculations regarding the worst case scenarios and aftermath remedies seems to be quite a bit premature.. even though you could be correct that the situation is as bad or worse than expected... so yeah, we gotta prepare for continued volatility that could go in either direction.. neither direction is guaranteed at this point and based on the largely speculative information currently available.

Why weave this intricate web of equivocations and meaningless observations? They lost 120k BTC, poof, gone. It's insurmountable to come back from that, now it's just a question of what % you get out after the lawyers have done a thorough fee raping of the remaining assets.

Sometimes I swear science could discover something about you, have you considered volunteering for some type of magnetoencephalography?

[No offense intended to those NOT JJG who lost funds today.]

[DaRude]

[edited out]

Think you somehow need to know your bitgo address? where funds are settled daily?

Estimating Finex's weekly volume at around BTC134k so about BTC6,968k/yr traded on finex. At ~ 0.25%fee on each trade Finex makes BTC17.5k/yr in fees. Depending how much BTC they held, and how much they have in assets, probably the best thing would be to try to run it as a fractional reserve with 50% in finexcoins.

I'm not sure from where you are getting the average of .25% fees, but in the regular exchange, I had written down maker fees as .1% and taker fees as .2%.. (so .3% total on both sides of the trade). and then fees scale down for volume, and there are the other services too.... but o.k... rough estimate of 17.5k per year in fees.

Exactly, highest volume maker fee is was .04% on finex, taket .2%, so conservatively guesstimated total at .25% fees

[DaRude]

Estimating Finex's weekly volume at around BTC134k so about BTC6,968k/yr traded on finex. At ~ 0.25%fee on each trade Finex makes BTC17.5k/yr in fees. Depending how much BTC they held, and how much they have in assets, probably the best thing would be to try to run it as a fractional reserve with 50% in finexcoins.

they also make BIG profit when long and short get liquidated ( i would assume? )
and/or fee for swaps.
I think if they the lose represents <50% of their total holdings, maybe they could survive and work on a fractional reserve for like 10 years.

idk why but this seems like a pipe dream.

poeple will demand their deposits the first chance they get, and when bitfinex cant do that, they will take'm to court

Yeah the rep said that the majority wasn't hacked so must be <50%

Didn't some smaller exchange do this? Before they got hacked again and then finally gave up and went belly up?

Yes i didn't include their profit from alts trading or their swaps (i'm estimating about $650k/yr profit just from USD longs)

They have huge volume and brand recognition so there's a chance of someone buying them up, if they won't/can't run fractional? Winterflosses? Full out bankruptcy would be the very last option.

dont they all do this to some degree?
expect for kraken http://www.coindesk.com/krakens-audit-proves-holds-100-bitcoins-reserve/  

the rep said that? ok maybe its not so bad, maybe they hold 1million coins worth of BTC + LTC + ETC + the fiat
and the lose only represents like 10% of their total holdings.

right maybe a deal will be struck, who knows.

Well that was the whole point of Finex's bitgo design. So each individual account holder could verify their balance, so they weren't running fractional reserve before. Of course it be f'ing nice if they could implement it correctly with some failsafes that wouldn't allow BTC120k withdraw in one day, but you know details.

If it's only 10% then it'd be a moot point, afraid that it's probably more than that    

[RGR991]

wow been a few weeks out of the bitcoin game, I see Finex is out 65M+ in yet another "hack"..

Mtgox,Cryptsy and Now Finex.. 


thx god I never leave any bitcoin on exchanges, I feel very sorry for those that lost on finex