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so your not positioning yourself in a more comfortable % in, and you will Hodl like us 'experts' well, i'm glad to hear that, would've thought you'd be bit of a seller right now.
I still think that on an ongoing basis you kind of read into my position and practice kind of what you want to read into it.
I will admit that I have been a very prolific writer in these forums, and I have done a lot of prognosticating about prices, and even made a lot of disclosures about my own bitcoin buying practices - but even with a lot of my disclosures, I probably have held back enough that no one really knows my exact quantities of buys etc.
I have been holding back information mostly for the purpose of maintaining some personal privacy (just in case I meet people in the real world who have seen my forum posts), and I am not trying to really withhold material aspects of my strategy.
I think that I have been consistent throughout to buy on the way down and to sell on the way up.... the only problem between about late 2013 until mid 2015, there really was not much of any up.. so we only had down down down.. .. so in that regard, I never really had any meaningful opportunities to sell on the way up.
O.k... maybe there is a bit of a contradiction in my statement because we did experience some small uptrends in between late 2013 and mid 2015 - however, I really considered that I had not accumulated enough BTC, and I really had not established any kind of selling strategies during that period of time because I considered that I was still accumulating BTC.
I only accumulated BTC with my spare funds, I did not leverage and I did not invest any money that I needed for living expenses or anything like that.
So I believe that I never did over invest.
Anyhow, my beginning to put my selling into practice, starting in late 2015, was not really to rebalance in any kinds of global ways, but only to help to offset some of the downside volatility risk of BTC... so currently, I am about 95% bitcoin and about 5 % cash, and the most that I have gotten down to in my selling is about 92% bitcoin and 8% cash... I do not consider these to be major rebalancing or selling off, but only selling off very small parts of my portfolio and then buying back on dips.
There is another way of thinking about rebalancing, and that is if I were to rebalance my total quasi-liquid investments. My initial goals around late 2013 was to work towards investing about 10% of my quasi liquid assets into bitcoin, and probably to stop around that 10% level... I had largely achieved those 10% overall investment into asset allocation in late 2014, so when prices began to rise, my allocation rose to nearly 30%, and I have not diversified out of bitcoin in terms of completely cashing out (not yet), and since my BTC holdings became a higher percentage of my assets based on price appreciation rather than my personal investment, I feel that I can let it ride to higher levels before I rebalance the total of my holdings.. I may even allow it to go into the 60% to 80% territory before I begin to feel too lopsided in terms of bitcoin holdings.
I figured you kinda overbought when bitcoin was going lower and lower down the rabbit hole and you were now "rebalancing", i still think thats what your doing, but you're just extremely careful/slow about it.
I think that you are reading too much into my supposedly having had overbought and my supposedly feeling any kind of need to rebalance the totality of my finances based on having had overbought. I personally am not in that kind of a situation. I have no urgency in needing any funds that I have invested into bitcoin, yet I have invested enough that I will profit considerably from some kind of exponential growth period, if one comes.
I suspect most "Jr" bitcoiners are in the process of slowly rebalancing their overbought positions, and thats whats keeping price from moving up.
There could be some truth to what you are saying, but i think that you are attempting to simplify too much. I think that there is a lot of variation in what kinds of holdings people have and whether they believe that they are investing for the long term and whether they feel some kind of urgency to cash out some of their stash. Of course, there are going to be all kinds of folks in each category.. people who began investing in 2010 or 2011 but have not built up a stash and people who have and all levels between.. and then the same is true for folks who may have begun investing 2012 2013 or 2014, there are going to be lots of categories of folks.
You recognize that there have been a lot of good developments in bitcoin, and you should also know that since 2013, there have been a lot more big players coming into bitcoin plus tools to short bitcoin, which are all probably much better explanations of various bitcoin price actions rather than trying to describe various investors like me as causing the price to stay down because that is nearly pure nonsense.
Its not so much the idea that Jr. are adding to much selling pressure, more like other are patiently acquiring the "Jr" sells and will milk that tills its completely done (which i imagine is soon...) before moving higher. why buy at 800 when there are still people selling in the 600's. this is after all a high price looking at YTD.
More tools for shorting have caused additional price dynamics besides merely looking at mass adoption abilities to speculate only upwards. For both bubbles in 2013, it was much more difficult to short bitcoin, and those tools are now available along with some bigger players manipulating BTC prices (or at least attempting such - and that is not me or the likes of me).
ya i dont mean to say you have more or less knowledge about bitcoin when i say "jr" i mean you're relatively new in terms of having acquired a comfortable long term position in the market.
That part is fair enough, but I still think that you are giving too much weight to some of these small potatoes, such as me, and even suggesting that there are a lot of folks out there that are like me... just seems too simple to me.
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