Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

And what are the expectations? should we sell? Or maybe this sensationalist news are used just for making panic as always? I believe BTC will stay in range 900 to 1000$. I think trend is broken.

i believe should sell and buy back about $50 lower or maybe more....

by the way Error 502 on Kraken .... there is nothing more annoying when the party is on the move to be outside of the exchange.....

 

Good luck with that strategy.

It is usually a safer strategy to buy after a dip rather than to sell during the dip that may or may not continue.... otherwise if you are in doubt, holding is also usually better than selling after there has already been nearly a 10% dip.  You may be correct, but the odds seem a bit against such a strategy

it's not a strategy. it was reaction to what happened. i agree with you that it's not safe.
sometimes in life it's good that we do things that we not think too much. we just do it.
that was the same here and the timing was good in my case.
But yes in general i agree with you as i said and hope more people have this strategy for their own safety

What you are doing is called gambling, and yes, sometimes I gamble with 1% or 2% of my holdings, and the remainder I engage in safer strategies.  You can also have a different tolerance for your gambling threshold, maybe even 10% or 20% of your holdings could be reasonable for some people.... I personally don't gamble with that much of my holdings... but that is just me.

What i did you can call it what name you like. and i never "play" around with something more than i can afford to loose....
i believe everyone of the early adopters know that already..

More or less we seem to agree, and sure people are going to draw their lines differently in terms of how much they are gambling or engaging in safety. 

I doubt that we are talking about different things, but we are drawing our lines at differing points regarding how much of our BTC holdings we may be willing to bet in either direction and whether we consider those bets to be safe or risky and how much we are willing to risk, even within our own perceptions of the probabilities of the situation.

I told you my thinking on the situation and how much I am willing to bet or to play with.  i also said how much I can perceive as reasonable (even within my framework).  I accept that sometimes folks will go outside of what I consider reasonable, and surely they have every right to do that and to come to those kinds of conclusions for themselves (even though would describe those kinds of behaviors as "overly risky" or "gambling too much.")

[rokkyroad]

That's a very nice ride! Buy bitcoins folks. You can be the next Ducati owner soon.

How times have changed. Goat used to show off the Lamborghini sports car he bought with profit bitcoins. Now it's a Ducati motorcycle.

At least they're both high-end machines. Bitcoiners have taste, class, and perhaps an adventuresome spirit. They also like things to be fast-moving.

 

Right on Jimbo! I like your style. Personally ... I like fast women ... but alas ... they don't like me.  

[JayJuanGee]

Ohhh boo hooo, someone stated weeks ago before the price was up to ~$1050 that it would not go above the January price, and because it was $910 at the time "we" didn't believe that they would know this information without having some sort of PERCENTAGES of probability. And now because it went to $1078 this person was completely wrong because they said ~$1050 and clearly $1078 is NOT ~$1050. And it hasn't dropped by the 25% YET, so they are clearly still wrong!!!

You come off as if you are engaging in a strawman argument.  That is you create the argument of your opponent in terms that are easy to strike down, and then you assert:  "I win"...  

You really come off as a bit of an insecure goofball that you feel like you need to be right instead of just sharing information with folks in this thread and agreeing to have differing opinions.  

i saw this coming miles away, problem is i positioned myself accordingly ~3weeks ago 

Exactly Adam.. I am glad that you can admit it.  We cannot time the situation exactly, so we gotta hedge a little bit about the timing and not bet too much - even if we have a pretty good idea that the explosion in one direction or another is coming.

[600watt]

If all those coins are trapped in China, the supply to the rest of the world will be restricted.

i doubt it that PBOC tries to stop capital outflow by means of restricting the movement of coins. i think they are after money laundering.

unfortunately the coins aren´t really trapped. the owners can still sell them and cash out. that is the problem here: it creates selling pressure. imagine you would have coins there and PBOC starts to intervene all the time. what would you do when they do not allow you to move your coins?

a) sit it out and wait and pray that exchange does not get shut down by PBOC
b) sit it out and wait and pray that exchange does not go bankrupt
c) don´t just wait, cash out and play safe.

that is what some (most?) people that have coins there will do.

and on top of this: imagine you have cash sitting on the exchange. would you want to buy coins that you are not allowed to move?

it is not only creating selling pressure, it is also inhibiting buying.


we can at least be thankful that the PBOC was nice enough to implode the mega-exaggerated volume FIRST (january 5th dump) and THEN stopped bitcoin withdrawals. imagine the blood bath if they would have done todays move while volume was mega exaggerated.

[JayJuanGee]

2nd leg down coming?

Eventually, but I doubt it will be tonight with this kind of volume on exchanges. We should have period of consolidation for the next 24-48 hours. Western exchanges have lost 10% and chinese 15% in a single day. Thats plenty for one afternoon and many sceptics are already buying back in.

The trade volume did a definite exponential spike in the past several hours.  There were 13k coins dumped on Stamp in 2 hours, and that is a lot of coins to dump in order to achieve a 17% dip that pretty much bounced back into the 10% dip territory...

So yeah there could be some continuation with high volume that is likely going to have to simmer down, even though it could take more than a few days before it actually does simmer down.  

Sometimes when a high trade volume price battle begins, it can take several weeks before that battle settles down... and during that time, we may continue to stay in a small price range, but chances become decent that we could also shoot in one direction or another (maybe odds would be a tiny bit more towards down in the short term as long as the trade volume remains up and sustainably up.. but down is surely not a given - especially if the price keeps bouncing back up, even after considerably high number of coins are dumped at once without achieving sustained lower price results).

[swogerino]

That's a very nice ride! Buy bitcoins folks. You can be the next Ducati owner soon.

Ahh.. totally missed that it was a Ducati,
Just was blinded by the beauty that it is with being shiny new.
Like all the bitcoins that people are buying up now to bring the price back up.

[JayJuanGee]

Next step would obv be to close a small exchange. Then, after several smaller ones, proceed with the bigger ones.

Then go after the miners. Then go after every retailer that accepts BTC.

It seems to me that the PBOC isn't going after Bitcoin. They're simply trying to prevent the outflow of capital from their country.

Yuan can be controlled. As long as the private keys are in China (such as in Chinese exchanges) they can control some bitcoins.

Once the coins are withdrawn to addresses whose private keys are elsewhere, they have no control whatsoever, hence the withdrawal suspension.

If this continues for more than the announced month, it could be extremely bullish. If all those coins are trapped in China, the supply to the rest of the world will be restricted.
____

Glad I bought today, even if I had to try 5 ATMs to do so.

The 2 cheapest ones I use the most were both temporarily sold out, the 3rd one I tried was ridicujlously overpriced, the 4th only had a fraction of a coin and was overpriced.

Finally I found a machine in a waffle shop which was well-stocked, reasonably priced, and doing booming business. It was busy when I arrived and by the time I was done, there were already 2 more people waiting in line.

Where I live, at these prices, demand exceeds supply.

What is a "reasonable" price for an ATM in your neck of the woods?   I know that you posted about this before, but would you consider less than 5% as "reasonable" or some other threshold?

[JimboToronto]

What is a "reasonable" price for an ATM in your neck of the woods?   I know that you posted about this before, but would you consider less than 5% as "reasonable" or some other threshold?

Anything at 5% or less is quite reasonable, especially if is totally anonymous. Even 7% is acceptable for me if it's close and anonymous.

By "ridiculously overpriced" I'm talking about double digits. One 24-hour place wants 13% to buy and 15% to sell. Ridiculous.

Cheap is the 1% offered by Deloitte, but they have a $100 daily limit and require ID. They're also a little off my beaten path. Travel time and expense are a consideration.

[sirazimuth]

bitcoin market behaving like typical bitcoin market...taint nuthin but a thang
so here's my prediction for this date next year (ill quote this post in a year to see how close i am)


 feb 9 of 2018 will be  ... $1850  ( fyi...just pulled that # outta my arse from watching price for past 3 years...and  i'm a hodler)

[Killerpotleaf]

I can feel the rumble of 10,000 bulls running towards market.       ...oh wait, no, that was a fart.

[sirazimuth]

I can feel the rumble of 10,000 bulls running towards market.       ...oh wait, no, that was a fart.

gas pass

[Killerpotleaf]

bitcoin market behaving like typical bitcoin market...taint nuthin but a thang
so here's my prediction for this date next year (ill quote this post in a year to see how close i am)


 feb 9 of 2018 will be  ... $1850  ( fyi...just pulled that # outta my arse from watching price for past 3 years...and  i'm a hodler)

i'd say closer to like 7470

[HI-TEC99]

It's 8:00am in Beijing, lets see what happens.

It's $989 on stamp and $988 on finex. The Chinese had a chance to dump before they went to bed. After a night's sleep they might start buying back now they can see it hasn't crashed as far as expected.

[Killerpotleaf]

what time to you think chinese lawyers get into their offices? like 9 ish?

[PoolMinor]

TA is for suckers.

[Ted E. Bare]

what time to you think chinese lawyers get into their offices? like 9 ish?

Probably when they are done buying up all the cheap coins. Price is increasing at the pace of a Ducati motorcycle.

[HI-TEC99]

what time to you think chinese lawyers get into their offices? like 9 ish?

The same as in the west, somewhere between 8 and 9 in the morning.

https://www.travelchinaguide.com/essential/business-hour.htm

The working hours of Chinese companies may be from 08:00 to 17:00, 08:30 to 17:30 or 09:00 to 18:00. The official organizations like the government offices usually work from 09:00 to 17:00 with a one-hour siesta, and they do not work on Saturdays and Sundays.

[TeeBone]

Dead cat bouncers were invented for those who got caught up in the hype No excuses to not bail out now.

[RayX12]

Dead cat bouncers were invented for those who got caught up in the hype No excuses to not bail out now.

Obviously "TeeBone" just dropped his stake...  

[Arcteryx]

It's 8:00am in Beijing, lets see what happens.

It's $989 on stamp and $988 on finex. The Chinese had a chance to dump before they went to bed. After a night's sleep they might start buying back now they can see it hasn't crashed as far as expected.

It has got to go up to $1000 by 10am their time.
If it doesn't you know something is up and there is dumps to be had through out the day at a feverish rate.
By the time the West wakes up it will be a disaster.
Do not sleep tonight and watch the disaster happen live.