Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[promomei]

it will be funny to see how its dumping later 

Mmmhh I don't know man!
We recovered extremely fast the last time.
I'm sure there will be attempts to surpress the price again, but I doubt the effect it's initiators expect it to have will really kick in.
People already give a f*** what China is announcing.

im waiting  for march 

[Images21]

seem to be doing pretty well here.

getting ready for china to ban bitcoin on ~saturdayish

Really, is this serious? I can't find an article saying it will ban bitcoin this Saturday. It's annoying that their government really wants to control everything. Very rich country but too many poor people.

[spooderman]

seem to be doing pretty well here.

getting ready for china to ban bitcoin on ~saturdayish

Really, is this serious? I can't find an article saying it will ban bitcoin this Saturday. It's annoying that their government really wants to control everything. Very rich country but too many poor people.

i was joking. they just always like to fuck with us when we're having a nice rally.

[JayJuanGee]

it will be funny to see how its dumping later 

I'm not so sure it will dump later. Nobody cares about the PBOC anymore, and nobody with coins on Chinese exchanges can dump them anymore.

Yeah, we will all be laughing our asses off at those dumps in the $3k to $5k territory.   I feel like laughing right now, just to get the laughing party started... .. and it is o.k. even to get some dumps right now.. feels pretty good being more than 160% in the green... probably 10x more in the green than my normal run of the mill expectations.....

[TeeBone]

big wave 3 down...coming soon to a theater near you.

1040 top in, hit the 78% fib on the head. China ban incoming lol

[JimboToronto]

nobody with coins on Chinese exchanges can dump them anymore.

Um, I thought it was only Bitcoin withdrawals that were suspended.

People can still sell their bitcoins and withdraw yuan.
______

This is why the price gap is so great between Chinese and western exchanges.

Before the crackdown many Chinese were willing to pay a premium at home for coins to sell at a discount at western exchanges, so the price was always higher in China. This is precisely one of the major reasons for the crackdown, to stop the outflow of capital. It also explains why prices at the Chinese exchanges were typically $30 higher than in the west.

Now if they want to get their funds out of the exchanges, they're forced to sell at a discount at home and withdraw yuan, over which the government has tight control. Hence the pendulum has swung and prices are typically $30 lower in China.

[Ibian]

Twenty dollar rise.

OMG so bored!

1050+ or bust. All about those psychological barriers.

[HI-TEC99]

nobody with coins on Chinese exchanges can dump them anymore.

Um, I thought it was only Bitcoin withdrawals that were suspended.

People can still sell their bitcoins and withdraw yuan.
______

This is why the price gap is so great between Chinese and western exchanges.

Before the crackdown many Chinese were willing to pay a premium at home for coins to sell at a discount at western exchanges, so the price was always higher in China. This is precisely one of the major reasons for the crackdown, to stop the outflow of capital. It also explains why prices at the Chinese exchanges were typically $30 higher than in the west.

Now if they want to get their funds out of the exchanges, they're forced to sell at a discount at home and withdraw yuan, over which the government has tight control. Hence the pendulum has swung and prices are typically $30 lower in China.

Sorry, I mean't nobody with coins on Chinese exchanges can dump them on Western exchanges anymore. Those coins on Chinese exchanges are locked out of the worldwide market. They are similar to the coins on Gox before it closed. People are only prepared to buy them at bigger and bigger discounts because they are trapped on an exchange.

[JimboToronto]

Sorry, I mean't nobody with coins on Chinese exchanges can dump them on Western exchanges anymore. Those coins on Chinese exchanges are locked out of the worldwide market. They are similar to the coins on Gox before it closed. People are only prepared to buy them at bigger and bigger discounts because they are trapped on an exchange.

Gotcha. This is something my Bitcoin buddies IRL and I have discussed since the withdrawal freeze.

If all those coins are trapped in China and demand continues to grow in the rest of the world, what will that do to prices?

To me, considerations like this are more meaningful than mere "technical" analysis.

[Chainsaw]

Sorry, I mean't nobody with coins on Chinese exchanges can dump them on Western exchanges anymore. Those coins on Chinese exchanges are locked out of the worldwide market. They are similar to the coins on Gox before it closed. People are only prepared to buy them at bigger and bigger discounts because they are trapped on an exchange.

Gotcha. This is something my Bitcoin buddies IRL have discussed since the withdrawal freeze.

If all those coins are trapped in China and demand continues to grow in the rest of the world, what will that do to prices?

To me, considerations like this are more meaningful than mere "technical" analysis.

I've been thinking about the same thing. Not sure if it's right, but this is what I came to.  I think we've got two key drivers:
1. The percent chance the market believes funds will be made wholly available no later than March 15th. (depressive force)
2. The opportunity cost of not having access to one's coins for this span of time. (depressive force)

This first point is one that isn't a factor...until it is.  As long as there is faith/trust that things will open on time, this factor will be close to zero. If/once is becomes non-zero, it could grow quickly.
We watched this play out on Gox.  While elsewhere coins had a market value of $413, IIRC...we watched the price gap between GoxBux and other coins spread...$20, $30..$50 spread.  As fear gripped the market in the final hours, price plummeted to just above $100 - over a 75% discount of 'real' coins.

To the second, this won't affect the long term HODLers. But those looking for the short term profits, I suspect, will become increasingly pressured to sell 'while the price is still good'. Those most afraid this 1000+ price point is temporary will feel increasing pressure to sell out of fear.

In the end, it always comes down to fear and greed.

If internationally, we saw prices diverging, and going up...then I think greed would take over, and risk-tolerant investors would inject cash into the chinese exchanges in order to buy 'cheap coins', knowing they will be inaccessible for up to a month, and knowing they run a risk of not getting what they put in.  The extent we see this will be visible by buying volume on exchanges, and would counteract both of the above, depressive forces.



...however, with the ETF decision looming, I don't think we'll see such price divergence, but rather sideways action until the decision.

[Karartma1]

this week has been terrible, all the sideways movements makes bitcoin price a headache.

That's a new one. I thought it was all the ups and down that made price a headache 

I find it's the ups, downs and sideways

Something like this I think


$1042,70 on Bitfinex, 1036 on OKCoin: things change rapidly these days

Go on Bitcoin March 11th is close

[gembitz]

Sorry, I mean't nobody with coins on Chinese exchanges can dump them on Western exchanges anymore. Those coins on Chinese exchanges are locked out of the worldwide market. They are similar to the coins on Gox before it closed. People are only prepared to buy them at bigger and bigger discounts because they are trapped on an exchange.

Gotcha. This is something my Bitcoin buddies IRL and I have discussed since the withdrawal freeze.

If all those coins are trapped in China and demand continues to grow in the rest of the world, what will that do to prices?

To me, considerations like this are more meaningful than mere "technical" analysis.

^maybe orientals going back to mining litecoin! :-D lol ..r.i.p. ltc

[podyx]

Why is the quaterly futures lower than weekly and biweekly on okcoin, anybody know?

[bitcoinminer42]

Why is the quaterly futures lower than weekly and biweekly on okcoin, anybody know?

coz bitcoin is dead 

[JimboToronto]

I've been thinking about the same thing. Not sure if it's right, but this is what I came to.  I think we've got two key drivers:
1. The percent chance the market believes funds will be made wholly available no later than March 15th. (depressive force)
2. The opportunity cost of not having access to one's coins for this span of time. (depressive force)

This first point is one that isn't a factor...until it is.  As long as there is faith/trust that things will open on time, this factor will be close to zero. If/once is becomes non-zero, it could grow quickly.
We watched this play out on Gox.  While elsewhere coins had a market value of $413, IIRC...we watched the price gap between GoxBux and other coins spread...$20, $30..$50 spread.  As fear gripped the market in the final hours, price plummeted to just above $100 - over a 75% discount of 'real' coins.

To the second, this won't affect the long term HODLers. But those looking for the short term profits, I suspect, will become increasingly pressured to sell 'while the price is still good'. Those most afraid this 1000+ price point is temporary will feel increasing pressure to sell out of fear.

In the end, it always comes down to fear and greed.

If internationally, we saw prices diverging, and going up...then I think greed would take over, and risk-tolerant investors would inject cash into the chinese exchanges in order to buy 'cheap coins', knowing they will be inaccessible for up to a month, and knowing they run a risk of not getting what they put in.  The extent we see this will be visible by buying volume on exchanges, and would counteract both of the above, depressive forces.

...however, with the ETF decision looming, I don't think we'll see such price divergence, but rather sideways action until the decision.

Good points.

I agree that many people are taking a wait-and-see approach with so much up in the air. Both the ETF decision and the announced end of the withdrawal freezes are almost a month away. I also think we're headed mostly sideways for a few weeks yet.

In the short term, I think we'll continue to see a very gradual creeping upward due to the temporary supply/demand imbalance from the freeze (and of course the natural long-term growth of Bitcoin).

The real action starts in March.

[HI-TEC99]

I've been thinking about the same thing. Not sure if it's right, but this is what I came to.  I think we've got two key drivers:
1. The percent chance the market believes funds will be made wholly available no later than March 15th. (depressive force)
2. The opportunity cost of not having access to one's coins for this span of time. (depressive force)

This first point is one that isn't a factor...until it is.  As long as there is faith/trust that things will open on time, this factor will be close to zero. If/once is becomes non-zero, it could grow quickly.
We watched this play out on Gox.  While elsewhere coins had a market value of $413, IIRC...we watched the price gap between GoxBux and other coins spread...$20, $30..$50 spread.  As fear gripped the market in the final hours, price plummeted to just above $100 - over a 75% discount of 'real' coins.

To the second, this won't affect the long term HODLers. But those looking for the short term profits, I suspect, will become increasingly pressured to sell 'while the price is still good'. Those most afraid this 1000+ price point is temporary will feel increasing pressure to sell out of fear.

In the end, it always comes down to fear and greed.

If internationally, we saw prices diverging, and going up...then I think greed would take over, and risk-tolerant investors would inject cash into the chinese exchanges in order to buy 'cheap coins', knowing they will be inaccessible for up to a month, and knowing they run a risk of not getting what they put in.  The extent we see this will be visible by buying volume on exchanges, and would counteract both of the above, depressive forces.

...however, with the ETF decision looming, I don't think we'll see such price divergence, but rather sideways action until the decision.

Good points.

I agree that many people are taking a wait-and-see approach with so much up in the air. Both the ETF decision and the announced end of the withdrawal freezes are almost a month away. I also think we're headed mostly sideways for a few weeks yet.

In the short term, I think we'll continue to see a very gradual creeping upward due to the temporary supply/demand imbalance from the freeze.

The real action starts in March.

Although there is an announced end of the withdrawal freezes, it comes with the caveat that the Chinese exchanges will be using enhanced AML/KYC procedures afterwards. If they adopt draconian AML/KYC procedures a significant percentage of their customers still won't be able to withdraw their Bitcoins because they won't have all the paperwork required to comply with draconian AML/KYC.

That could sustain the supply/demand imbalance after the "end of" the freeze.

[Biodom]

How about this scenario:

chinese bitcoiners are waiting for up to 1 mo to transfer bitcoins out and presumably convert to $$ or euros on western exchanges.
In the mean time ETF is approved, which coincides with chinese coin release.
Therefore, chinese dump their bitcoins into the ETF-caused surge, thereby negating the magnidude of the surge greatly or even completely.
I would love this scenario as it would allow me to buy ETF on the cheap in my IRAs.

[podyx]

Why is the quaterly futures lower than weekly and biweekly on okcoin, anybody know?

coz bitcoin is dead 

It don't make sense how it's lower...

[JimboToronto]

Although there is an announced end of the withdrawal freezes, it comes with the caveat that the Chinese exchanges will be using enhanced AML/KYC procedures afterwards. If they adopt draconian AML/KYC procedures a significant percentage of their customers still won't be able to withdraw their Bitcoins because they won't have all the paperwork required to comply with draconian AML/KYC.

That could sustain the supply/demand imbalance after the "end of" the freeze.

If they adopt draconian AML/KYC procedures? LOL. I think that's a fairly safe bet.

I expect a pretty short leash. Chinese coins will eventually be withdrawn to western exchanges, but it will be a trickle rather than torrent.

While all the panicking was going on over first the rumors, then the inspections, and finally the freezes, some of us saw the whole matter as good for Bitcoin in the long run.

After all these years, 2017 might actually become "the year of Bitcoin". It's certainly started out that way. We started with a bang and even after all the Chinese drama, we're still over a grand.

Life is good in Bitcoinland (for now).

[bitcoinvest]

i keep looking how hard they try to keep the price below 1.000€

sale orders are jumping for 100BTC after 2 seconds 64BTC just to win some time only because i love how the sale order are eaten

Go BTC let's brake 1.000€  tonight!!!!