Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Reid]

we're starting to make the 2013 bubble look stupid

think we'll see a replay of 2013? like, 2013 with the decimal place moved over one? masterluc called for a target of little above $9k i think so that would fit ...  

Gave me the creeps when I thought about it. That is one hard fall if ever.
Oops. Better not talk about it. There might be someone reading here with heart failures.  
However, can it double its price now? That is the one exciting event. Others might not believe again then suddenly BAAAM!!
YES! It can happen.

[1715151031]

1715151031

[1715151031]

1715151031

[1715151031]

1715151031

[HanvanBitcoin]

This week has been pretty much WOW BTCitcoin officially went Super Saiyan Mode!   Gz to all who made some nice profits. And remember, HODL!  

[marcus1986]

3000$ this year year.

The new wealthy elite  

I really like forecast by Masterluc We are going to 9000$ per BTC!

[gembitz]

A splendid good morning ladies and gentlemen of Bitcoinland.

Another day, another ATH, another correction and consolidation... currently $1846USD (Bitcoinaverage).

Seems to be forming a nice bullish pennant, preparing for the next leg up.

We all know this can't go on forever. There's bound to be a more substantial correction eventually. The questions are when and how deep.

Now that we're trading over $2500CAD according to all major indexes, I'd jump all over any dip below $2000 as a buying opportunity.

I can't believe I'm actually looking at two grand as a bargain basement price.  

Go Bitcoin go.

^EXPERTS AGREE WE ARE HEADING TO $5000 BEFORE HALLOWEEN :-D WEEEEE

[JayJuanGee]

i simply cannot wrap my brain around this action among the seeming chaos of the scaling issue. to judge by the talk, we should, at best, be stable, not climbing. Yet here we are, record highs.

i really am kicking myself over those 10 coins i sold to my brother for $1000. total. :| at the time, that was the price... heck, i think i actually did it in my favor by a percent or two. argh.

and then there's the 15 or so coins i spent on games and other crap... ugh.

Nothing wrong with spending or selling..

But you are probably indicating that you spent or sold and then you did not replace --- gotta replace when spending.


Now, at these prices, hm?  I might spend and replace just 2/3 of them.. but no matter what gotta consider what portion to replace... even if it is only 20%

You are probably overthinking here... My guesstimate is that Elwar only spent/sold around 1-3% of his holdings, maybe even less than that.

Are you referring to Arkian, rather than Elwar?  

I am not referring to anyone in specific, instead I am referring to a practice of considering your replacement of coins that you spend.  Of course if the price is high, and you spend, your replacement considerations are going to be different as compared to when the price is low.... but we do not always know if the price is high or if the price is low, so our replacement plan might be more aggressive or less aggressive depending on our own perception and views.

For example, I recall a couple of things that occurred with a person who I had been introducing to bitcoin from about upper $300s.  If you recall the price was in the upper $300s in late 2014, and I was thinking that was pretty much the bottom, and I introduced several people to bitcoin, and a couple of people took me up on my suggestion, but got a bit frustrated when the price went down during 2015, and I recall that one person had paid me in bitcoin when the price was $228, and I told that person that she better replace her bitcoins, and even though she was disheartened about bitcoin, luckily she took my suggestion and replaced because the price never returned to that level.  

Similar things can be true at any price, whether spending at $228 or $1000 or $1842 or any other price - when you spend your bitcoin, you should be considering your replacement plan.

For some reason I thought you were replying to the Elwar message, now I see I got confussed. Probably due to the emotion of watching the little pump

Anyway... What I meant is that if someone has already finished their accumulation process there is probably no reason to keep putting more eggs into the Bitcoin basket and, some spending is reasonable even if not "refilled".

I mean, lets say someone who has 500BTC, at current rate almost 1 million dollar, but doesn't have any other significant liquid holdings (fiat, stocks, etc). Well, diversification tells he shouldn't put more eggs into the Bitcoin basket. If it rises up, great, it's not that important that he spend some on the road, if it crashes... better he did spent some.
Also, as a person without much other significant holdings or excess income he wouldn't be able to increase significantly his current holding anyways (at current rates).

If someone is yet in the accumulation phase, then yes, he should probably replace if it is feasible for him, but that doesn't need to be done inmediately. Maybe in the next correction (even if it is higher than actual price).

Yes we can remember how things evolved in the past, what we did and what we could have done.... My first two BTC I bought them for 100Euro in total using paypal. I wish I had bought much more at that price but... that's nonsense, it's the same is if we wish to have bought a lottery ticket after knowing which number was the winner.

For me, I will probably stop completely my accumulation phase when Bitcoin grows to the point that it has the same total value as my liquid FIAT. Then I will probably also stop spending from my FIAT and start spending from my BTC. If that ever happens (maybe before 2020 if everything goes according to the plan). Also, if that happens, I expect my BTC to keep growing above my FIAT holding from that point on, even if spending from it (and not replacing anymore).

For that reasons, I can perfectly understand if someone in particular has already reached a point in which he is now better spending from BTC and not replacing it.

Notice how I say (moderately) spending from instead of selling/going all out.

You seem to be quibbling over nuances, and maybe even phraseology.

But at the same time, we seem to be coming back to a theme that we have discussed before and we disagree on, and that is the concept of incrementalism.

There is no problem taking profits at various points which means spending that on whatever the fuck you want (because you are not reinvesting); however, if someone is saying that they have regrets because they sold too many here or there or that they used too many to buy x, y or z, then that means that the person probably had an inadequate reinvestment plan - and are second guessing their previous choices - which means that maybe the person invested too much one way or another.

Sure, I will concede that all of us might attempt some monday morning quarterbacking after we see the price move greater than we thought and say, I wished I would have bought more or sold more, but all along we need to be attempting to find a plan that helps us to minimize those kinds of regrets (even though we sitll may have a tendency to feel them).

So, anyhow, I will continue to harp on various forms of incrementalism - whether you spend and chose to replace 100% or 10% or some  other quantity of such replacement

[Meuh6879]

This is not a pump. This a real volume ...

[r0ach]

1800 - came up a little faster than I expected, as did 1500.

Beginning to run out of targets

That's when you know it's time to sell if even Marcus who thinks the BTC price can only go up thinks the price is too high.

[spooderman]

weekend dumps beginning?

[podyx]

3000$ this year year.

The new wealthy elite  

I really like forecast by Masterluc We are going to 9000$ per BTC!

Link to masterluc's forecast?

[rjclarke2000]

3000$ this year year.

The new wealthy elite  

I really like forecast by Masterluc We are going to 9000$ per BTC!

Link to masterluc's forecast?

https://m.vk.com/bitcoin_vanga

[JayJuanGee]

weekend dumps beginning?

What are the odds of a dump beginning within the $1,800 to $1,900 range?  

55% down / 45% up ?  


What are the odds of a dump that starts after going within the $1,900 to $2,000 range?

45% down / 55% up ?  


What are the odds of a dump that starts after going within the $2,000 to $2,200 range?

40% down / 60% up ?  


What are the odds of a dump that starts after going within the $2,200 to $2,500 range?

60% down / 40% up ?


What are the odds of a dump that starts after going within the $2,500 to $3,000 range?

53% down / 47% up ?  


What are the odds of a dump that starts after going within the $3,000 to $4,000 range?

51% down / 49% up ?  


What are the odds of a dump that starts after going within the $4,000 to $5,000 range?

75% down / 25% up ?  
 

Unless we happen to be a real giant manipulator (and even those guys might be lacking confidence), we should be considering odds of direction, no?   Surely, sooner or later we gotta go down - yet if we make it past a certain threshold, we have to recalculate the odds, no?  

Right now, the odds of going into the $4k to $5k price range within the next 6 months is probably less than 10% - however, if we were to get passed $4k, then the odds of going either up or down change, no?  

[mike4001]

weekend dumps beginning?

A small dump would be welcome (also some days/weeks of sideways trend) ... so this does not become a huge bubble and can stabilize properly at USD 1800

[LLec]

Bitfinex is only $33 higher than Stamp!

Looks like all the other exchanges are catching up with bitfinex major piece gap in the last month.

[blade87]

weekend dumps beginning?

A small dump would be welcome (also some days/weeks of sideways trend) ... so this does not become a huge bubble and can stabilize properly at USD 1800

This micro bubble should lead to a micro bear market.

I'd rather see a series of these happen so Bitcoin can properly rise to $10K+ for the next block halving in 3 years, with solid support at many levels below, as opposed to bubble up to $4-5K this year, and then be followed by a 5 year long bear market where we test the $1200 previous ATH at some point way down the line.

[rjclarke2000]

weekend dumps beginning?

A small dump would be welcome (also some days/weeks of sideways trend) ... so this does not become a huge bubble and can stabilize properly at USD 1800

This micro bubble should lead to a micro bear market.

I'd rather see a series of these happen so Bitcoin can properly rise to $10K+ for the next block halving in 3 years, with solid support at many levels below, as opposed to bubble up to $4-5K this year, and then be followed by a 5 year long bear market where we test the $1200 previous ATH at some point way down the line.

I completely agree. Staying above 1200 though

[smiletyson]

 I think price will touch at 2k$ then will crash, crash hard to 1.5k$ level.
Then if something happens like mt.gox incident (which is not probable now) because no exchange hodls 90% of the bitcoins, it won't be under 1k$ any more.

[Dakustaking76]

Oh No were crashing now 

[bitebits]

Remember when gold parity was a thing to look forward to?

`

It still is.

[cmacwiz]

weekend dumps beginning?

A small dump would be welcome (also some days/weeks of sideways trend) ... so this does not become a huge bubble and can stabilize properly at USD 1800

This micro bubble should lead to a micro bear market.

I'd rather see a series of these happen so Bitcoin can properly rise to $10K+ for the next block halving in 3 years, with solid support at many levels below, as opposed to bubble up to $4-5K this year, and then be followed by a 5 year long bear market where we test the $1200 previous ATH at some point way down the line.

I completely agree. Staying above 1200 though

Bubbles have been changing, and I don't want to sound like a "this time is different" schmuck, but actual mass adoption as a store of wealth could be why it appears we're at the foot of a massive parabolic. That being said, I do feel that the micro bear markets will pop up as we scale the mass adoption curve which is the best case scenario IMO

[leowonderful]

Oh No were crashing now  

RIP guys, it's all over, we told you it was going to crash.

Two minutes later, price recovers. Just sit back, don't watch price for a few hours, and chill. It's not like looking at your little phone or monitor every five minutes will change anything. Small corrections do happen and it's only normal for them to happen.