Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Icygreen]

My buy point is defenetly between 1600-1800 USD.

You never know my friend.


....and neither does anyone else here.

true

but wouldn't recommend that

1600s possible though

but under 1600 "highly unlikely"

I am not sure about the odds.

Let's say that the current range is between approximately $1950 and and $2,300.

maybe to odds for breaking down are 45% and 55% for up? but then if we break down, then how far down will it go?  greater odds against it the further down that you go.

In theory, you should have already bought a decent amount of coins on these first two downward legs, so waiting for more down before you buy more is not a bad idea.  But if you have not bought, and you are waiting, you might get left behind, no? [insert running after the train.gif]

In the event this goes 1.7k and then 1.2k, what future or top would come next vs. a breakout to 3.5k or 5k now? Would it mean an even larger top or a possible death?

What do you think?

Some of us are skeptical about the genuineness of the questions of newbie accounts.

For now, I am going to assume that you are not trolling.. welcome to the forum.


Well, yes, regarding your questions,  if the price breaks below $1850 to $1900 then the next area of support would likely be in the $1500 to $1600 area.. and if it breaks below $1500 then the next area of support would be $1200 to $1300... ..

So, in your question, you are asking about a break down to $1200, and that is not at all bearish.

Remember, it seems like a long time ago, but we were just at $1200 - about a month ago. So, yeah, it is no way bearish to return to $1200.. the same is true about $890, we could return to those seemingly low level price levels and still be in an overall bulltrend.... remember  we moved from $250 to $2760 in about 20 months.


Regarding breaking out to $3k, it becomes more delayed the lower the correction.  At this time, we have not experienced the correction beyond $1850, so it seems a bit premature to talk about what if $3k to $5k in the event of more correction.

We have to see how one leg plays out before predicting the next leg... so yeah, the greater the correction the more likely that more resistance will form at different levels... We have to play these step by step, because we cannot necessarily predict all of the legs, but when one leg happens, then we can attempt to predict the probabilities of the next leg - in either direction... and at the moment up seems more likely than down, but if we go down, then up becomes less and less likely... there is no exact answers, but just a bunch of probabilities that are strung upon each other.

I understand the skepticism and thanks for the reply. Much appreciated.  No trolling here, genuine questions only.   I was asking about a breakout now before further corrections. Lets say if this is the last leg before a pattern completes around 2K we would be able to predict a breakout sometime shortly after 2300 and likely predict a top. More my question was regarding the health of Bitcoin and if we did see such low corrections and how that might look for its future.  

[Meuh6879]

What do you guys think?

What crypto-currency have wallet on phone ?
A real one -with backup & restore & official support ... not a backdoor to a VIRTUAL wallet hosted on exchange.

You can not pay a person with ALTS.
You can not start a business with ALTS.

ALTS are good to trade and it's an hoover for FIAT money (good, because Bitcoin is the last step after trading ALTS).

Bitcoin is a vault for 100 years.
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-nanosatellites-orbit-earth-2016/

[Mrpumperitis]

guys there wont be another big dump...for the time being...we need to go reallly high first then come back...but we wont dump back as low this for a long long time ( unless we get a serious hack exchange, which would be nothing but a mere setback anyway.
starting from june 1st, crypto will be booming again and heading towards the $500bill area over the next few months

the huge amount of new accounts, and new exchanges are all ready

very very dangerous time to be trying to catch knives...

best thing to do...buy soon or hodl what ya got
 

[bitserve]

What do you guys think?

What crypto-currency have wallet on phone ?
A real one -with backup & restore & official support ... not a backdoor to a VIRTUAL wallet hosted on exchange.

You can not pay a person with ALTS.
You can not start a business with ALTS.

ALTS are good to trade and it's an hoover for FIAT money (good, because Bitcoin is the last step after trading ALTS).

Bitcoin is a vault for 100 years.
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-nanosatellites-orbit-earth-2016/

So that's why I am so confussed the alts market hasn't start to bleed into Bitcoin. It's against all I would have predicted. Why hasn't hapenned yet?

I do think it will, because that's the logical outcome, but I am surprised it hasn't hapenned already.

100 years is too long term to even consider...

[Searing]

What do you guys think?

What crypto-currency have wallet on phone ?
A real one -with backup & restore & official support ... not a backdoor to a VIRTUAL wallet hosted on exchange.

You can not pay a person with ALTS.
You can not start a business with ALTS.

ALTS are good to trade and it's an hoover for FIAT money (good, because Bitcoin is the last step after trading ALTS).

Bitcoin is a vault for 100 years.
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-nanosatellites-orbit-earth-2016/

So that's why I am so confussed the alts market hasn't start to bleed into Bitcoin. It's against all I would have predicted. Why hasn't hapenned yet?

I do think it will, because that's the logical outcome, but I am surprised it hasn't hapenned already.

100 years is too long term to even consider...

This is because of the btc block size drama. If that was fixed the resulting pump in btc
price and hype. Well, then it would happen. Lots of $$ sitting elsewhere because of that
Bitcoin devs of many flavors, that won't play together.

[bitserve]

What do you guys think?

What crypto-currency have wallet on phone ?
A real one -with backup & restore & official support ... not a backdoor to a VIRTUAL wallet hosted on exchange.

You can not pay a person with ALTS.
You can not start a business with ALTS.

ALTS are good to trade and it's an hoover for FIAT money (good, because Bitcoin is the last step after trading ALTS).

Bitcoin is a vault for 100 years.
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-nanosatellites-orbit-earth-2016/

So that's why I am so confussed the alts market hasn't start to bleed into Bitcoin. It's against all I would have predicted. Why hasn't hapenned yet?

I do think it will, because that's the logical outcome, but I am surprised it hasn't hapenned already.

100 years is too long term to even consider...

This is because of the btc block size drama. If that was fixed the resulting pump in btc
price and hype. Well, then it would happen. Lots of $$ sitting elsewhere because of that
Bitcoin devs of many flavors, that won't play together.

Yes, that does makes sense. If I am waiting for the right signal for the scaling issue to be solved before going all in, maybe many other people is waiting the same.

I hope that Segwit+2MB gets enough support to finally end this absurd war. At this time it looks as the only non contentious alternative. I don't like the idea of non unanimous hard forks, nor UASF. Whatever is supported by an almost unanimous majority is ok to me at this time (Well, except BU/EC as I am totally against it).

[Meuh6879]

Are you suggesting running a full core node on a smartphone?

Actual Local Blockchain = 132GB
Actual Available Storage on smartphone = 237GB
Actual CPU on smartphone = Quad Core Atom 2,5GHz 64 bits
Actual RAM on smartphone = 6GB
Actual smartphone ARE tablet = Boot on Win10 64bit Desktop edition (not mobile and not tablet depreciate edition) and so ... Ubuntu/Debian distribution



Response : Yes.



Proof : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwyFEfuTDew



You can run full node of bitcoin core on a "high end" phone (Apple price actually ...).
Probably take 2 weeks to recreate the cryptography of the Local Blockchain ... but, hey ... it's a netbook base after all.

[bitserve]

Are you suggesting running a full core node on a smartphone?

Actual Local Blockchain = 132GB
Actual Available Storage on smartphone = 237GB
Actual CPU on smartphone = Quad Core Atom 2,5GHz 64 bits
Actual RAM on smartphone = 6GB
Actual smartphone ARE tablet = Boot on Win10 64bit Desktop edition (not mobile and not tablet depreciate edition) and so ... Ubuntu/Debian distribution



Response : Yes.



Proof : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OwyFEfuTDew



You can run full node of bitcoin core on a "high end" phone (Apple price actually ...).
Probably take 2 weeks to recreate the cryptography of the Local Blockchain ... but, hey ... it's a netbook base after all.

I know you can. But it is one the craziest ideas I have ever heard. WHY? What would be the impact on cpu and data usage?

The phone would become almost unusable as a phone, but, anyways, I understand rjclarcke was looking for a more secure way of handling some of his Bitcoins, and that is using hardware wallets (Trezor or Ledger Nano S). Anything other than that doesn't add any safety to what he probably is currently using.

Again, do YOU have any hardware wallet?

[yefi]

I hope that Segwit+2MB gets enough support to finally end this absurd war. At this time it looks as the only non contentious alternative. I don't like the idea of non unanimous hard forks, nor UASF. Whatever is supported by an almost unanimous majority is ok to me at this time (Well, except BU/EC as I am totally against it).

Seemed like a decent compromise to me. Core programmers snubbing it was disappointing.

[Meuh6879]

i run many full nodes ... since 2014.
i fully understand the needed material for handle a full node ... on a real OS.

[bitserve]

I hope that Segwit+2MB gets enough support to finally end this absurd war. At this time it looks as the only non contentious alternative. I don't like the idea of non unanimous hard forks, nor UASF. Whatever is supported by an almost unanimous majority is ok to me at this time (Well, except BU/EC as I am totally against it).

Seemed like a decent compromise to me. Core programmers snubbing it was disappointing.

Yes, for some reasons core programmers seem to be against it. And it disappoints me because I want core to remain being CORE and not the miners controlling EVERYTHING (hashrate+development). I want to keep having some equilibrium of power miners on one side, developers on the other.

I was/am on core side, but this stubborness is getting too much to understand.

Eric Lombrozo, which was one of the most stubborn of them, seems to be somewhat open to the compromise though. Let's see what happens with the rest of them.

[bitserve]

i run many full nodes ... since 2014.

I stopped running a full node in early 2014.

You should try a hardware wallet. Trust me, it is probably one of the best developments we have had in the cryptocurrencies ecosystem. I am still amazed.

[Meuh6879]

No, i don't want doing this.
Because, Bitcoin is a network.
And network work on a mobile phone.

Not on a hardware wallet that it need an ... other device to accept/decline spend of funds.

[explorer]

What do you guys think?

What crypto-currency have wallet on phone ?
A real one -with backup & restore & official support ... not a backdoor to a VIRTUAL wallet hosted on exchange.

You can not pay a person with ALTS.
You can not start a business with ALTS.

ALTS are good to trade and it's an hoover for FIAT money (good, because Bitcoin is the last step after trading ALTS).

Bitcoin is a vault for 100 years.
http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-nanosatellites-orbit-earth-2016/

Can you run a full node (bitcoin) on a smartphone? 
I thought Monero was the only coin to achieve that to date...

Why can't you pay with alts?  I can.  I've done it here and there for several years.

[bitserve]

No, i don't want doing this.
Because, Bitcoin is a network.
And network work on a mobile phone.

Not on a hardware wallet that it need an ... other device to accept/decline spend of funds.

A hardware wallet has nothing to do with either you running a full node or a SPV. It only has to do with where the private keys for spending your funds reside.

YOu can have your full node and connect your hardware wallet for signing transactions. That's the beauty of it. It doesn't matter how secure/insecure the pc/smartphone/whatever you connect your harware wallet is, your private keys can't be accesses from outside of the hardware wallet. And there is almost/no cons to that added security.

[JayJuanGee]

I really don't understand anything. Many alts have gone 10, 20, 50, or even 75x in the past months while Bitcoin has done "only" a 2x and when we have a correction it gets linear to all cryptocurrencies. I expected the altcoin bubble to pop and start blowing into bitcoin but I am not seeing that yet.

I don't know if I was wrong or if that has yet to come.

What do you guys think?

I have been holding (my non-trading little stash) since 2013 so I will keep doing it no matter what but I am a bit confussed at this time.

You are correct that the correction of alts seem to be at a similar level as the correction of bitcoin..

In other words, alts are still in the pumping mode, and they may get pumped for quite a bit longer than bitcoin.

Ultimately probably bullish for bitcoin to have so much money flowing into the crypto space, even though a bunch of those alt projects are smoke and mirrors vaporware..

It is not inevitable that the money will flow into bitcoin, but it seems pretty decent chances of such flow into bitcoin...

Could take several months to play out and maybe this pump of money into the space will bring bitcoin to $4k  or $5k and maybe could cause additional pump and maybe se get a crash down to $2k and then back up to $10k to $20k zone.. and maybe at that point the gig will be up for some of the alts.  They can only play those alts for so long, right? 

[JayJuanGee]

My buy point is defenetly between 1600-1800 USD.

You never know my friend.


....and neither does anyone else here.

true

but wouldn't recommend that

1600s possible though

but under 1600 "highly unlikely"

I am not sure about the odds.

Let's say that the current range is between approximately $1950 and and $2,300.

maybe to odds for breaking down are 45% and 55% for up? but then if we break down, then how far down will it go?  greater odds against it the further down that you go.

In theory, you should have already bought a decent amount of coins on these first two downward legs, so waiting for more down before you buy more is not a bad idea.  But if you have not bought, and you are waiting, you might get left behind, no? [insert running after the train.gif]

In the event this goes 1.7k and then 1.2k, what future or top would come next vs. a breakout to 3.5k or 5k now? Would it mean an even larger top or a possible death?

What do you think?

Some of us are skeptical about the genuineness of the questions of newbie accounts.

For now, I am going to assume that you are not trolling.. welcome to the forum.


Well, yes, regarding your questions,  if the price breaks below $1850 to $1900 then the next area of support would likely be in the $1500 to $1600 area.. and if it breaks below $1500 then the next area of support would be $1200 to $1300... ..

So, in your question, you are asking about a break down to $1200, and that is not at all bearish.

Remember, it seems like a long time ago, but we were just at $1200 - about a month ago. So, yeah, it is no way bearish to return to $1200.. the same is true about $890, we could return to those seemingly low level price levels and still be in an overall bulltrend.... remember  we moved from $250 to $2760 in about 20 months.


Regarding breaking out to $3k, it becomes more delayed the lower the correction.  At this time, we have not experienced the correction beyond $1850, so it seems a bit premature to talk about what if $3k to $5k in the event of more correction.

We have to see how one leg plays out before predicting the next leg... so yeah, the greater the correction the more likely that more resistance will form at different levels... We have to play these step by step, because we cannot necessarily predict all of the legs, but when one leg happens, then we can attempt to predict the probabilities of the next leg - in either direction... and at the moment up seems more likely than down, but if we go down, then up becomes less and less likely... there is no exact answers, but just a bunch of probabilities that are strung upon each other.

I understand the skepticism and thanks for the reply. Much appreciated.  No trolling here, genuine questions only.   I was asking about a breakout now before further corrections. Lets say if this is the last leg before a pattern completes around 2K we would be able to predict a breakout sometime shortly after 2300 and likely predict a top. More my question was regarding the health of Bitcoin and if we did see such low corrections and how that might look for its future.  

Regarding up: Yes... we gotta break through about 3 resistance points before we reach the $3k to $5k arena.

We have to break above the $2350-$2400, then we have to break above $2600 and then we have to break above $2760...   Currently, there does seem to be quite a bit of buying support, but yes, I don't know the odds of breaking through each of these resistance points before experiencing another downward correction.  There are a lot of players, and there may be some holding back or some hidden cards, etc.  But, buying support does seem to continue to be pretty decent, and ongoingly decent.

Regarding down and bitcoin image:  I really don't know.  Probably we would have to go significantly below $1k before the image is going to be negatively affected.  Of course, trolls and FUD spreaders are going to play any amount of downturn to the greatest extent that they can, but bitcoin remains pretty solid, even if the price were around $1k.    It will take quite a bit to get back to $1k.. so maybe we are talking too much about unlikely hypotheticals if we are going to dwell too much on the improbable rather than considering what seems to be more probable.

[JayJuanGee]

I hope that Segwit+2MB gets enough support to finally end this absurd war. At this time it looks as the only non contentious alternative. I don't like the idea of non unanimous hard forks, nor UASF. Whatever is supported by an almost unanimous majority is ok to me at this time (Well, except BU/EC as I am totally against it).

Seemed like a decent compromise to me. Core programmers snubbing it was disappointing.

It's an attempt to change governance and to accomplish such in the form of a hard fork.... A hardfork is not necessary. so why agree to something that is not necessary and that is problematic and that is going to set bad precedent for future take overs.. especially if they agree to either a hardfork or a change in governance.. ?
 

[CoinCube]

I hope that Segwit+2MB gets enough support to finally end this absurd war. At this time it looks as the only non contentious alternative. I don't like the idea of non unanimous hard forks, nor UASF. Whatever is supported by an almost unanimous majority is ok to me at this time (Well, except BU/EC as I am totally against it).

Seemed like a decent compromise to me. Core programmers snubbing it was disappointing.

It's an attempt to change governance and to accomplish such in the form of a hard fork.... A hardfork is not necessary. so why agree to something that is not necessary and that is problematic and that is going to set bad precedent for future take overs.. especially if they agree to either a hardfork or a change in governance.. ?
 

Because it appears to be the only option on the table that a consensus can be built around. Also it can be rolled out by the Bitcoin Core team hence no change in governance.

The lack of code is probably a good thing at this juncture. I have been following this dispute only recently but the strong impression I get is that the only possible path to consensus on something like the miner agreement is if the code is ultimately produced, vetted and shipped by the core developers.

The miner agreement at this stage is simply a proposal. That proposal must now be vetted by the rest of the community to determine if a grudging consensus can be built around it.

Hopefully such a consensus will be possible. It strikes me as a far healthier path forward then stagnation forever in the current state or a civil war leading to a split into two coins.
...
It appears very clear that regardless of their technical merits neither

1) Variable blocksize
or
2) SegWit alone without a block size increase

can achieve consensus at this moment in bitcoin history. Thus neither are viable pathways forward right now.

Some compromise position must be adopted. It does not matter if it is a perfect solution. All it needs to be is safe and good enough to achieve widespread if grudging consensus.
...

There is fundamental disagreement in the community regarding on-chain versus off-chain scaling. Best hope of a breakthrough is a half-measure that allows both sides time to show what their solution offers.

Personally I hope to see some variation of Barry Silbert segwit agreement coded up vetted and released by the Bitcoin Core team as this is the only option on the table that appears to have any chance of achieving consensus.
...

We don't need to make a final determination between on-chain and off-chain scaling at this time. Kicking the can down the road by allowing both to be tried in parallel under the vetting and safety provided by the Bitcoin Core team sounds pretty good to me.

Plus though it is not the primary concern here it is worth mentioning that a successful consensus solution to this problem would likely be very good to everyone's pocketbook.

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Imo, the biggest problem right now is ETH. It was $8 at the beginning of the year. It's so severely inflated, that if it keeps crashing, it's going to keep taking everything else with it. That's what happens when you let a competitor gain too much market share. It's stupid that I find in order for BTC to hold its price, or continue rising, that requires ETH to hold a 13x inflated price (since the beginning of March).

I agree with you that ETH is severely overinflated, esp when I have the belief that it was never even intended to be a cryptocurrency in the first place (Vitalik himself said that) and thus hold any significant value. It's been pre-mined to death, and the float is tiny. But even worse, the ETH fans don't even realize that the mining floor is somewhere down around the single digit dollar area, and troll traders took millions of ETH off exchanges for pennies for the last 2 years in anticipation of running it up to the moon. Notice that I said troll traders, not people who actually believe in ETH and are long term holders. So any weakness in buying demand, or any flaw/bug found, or any exchange hacked, and ETH will get dumped into the absolute ground.

But I disagree that this will affect BTC to the negative or in any way whatsoever. It's completely disconnected. If anything, they'll be trading back into BTC on the way down.

I completely missed the boat on ETH and I'm still pissed about it. But I still don't get it. If decentralized applications ever take off, won't using ETH be prohibitively expensive at this price? Such that a cheaper alternative will instantly take it's place?