Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ARTISTCOLONY]

Meanwhile, we passed $4000CAD according to Google.

Not just another rung up the ladder, but another milestone.

Keep 'em coming.

https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/06/5b/17/065b174c9c2d87d16ebf036842394e26.jpg

 

happy $3000 bud!!! 

[Elwar]

This is it. My friends that have 0 knowledge or interest in bitcoin are buying BTC and ETH... The bubble, the force of bubble is in the full mode now!

Not full mode. Otherwise, we would see doublings in a week.

How long did the doublings in a week continue for in 2013? I missed the run up back then, this time round will be my first experience of a massive run up.

In 2013 it went like this.

First bubble:
Double in a month
Double in 2 weeks
Double in 1 week
Double in half a week
Up a bit then crash

Second bubble:
Double in a month
Double in 2 weeks
Double in 1 week
Up a bit then crash

Recently we doubled in a month (1250 to 2500) but then it flattened out. That's a good thing.

[explorer]

So we'd have to be at 6k in a week at this point for it to be a bubble? 

It's not over til it doubles in a day or so 

[600watt]

So we'd have to be at 6k in a week at this point for it to be a bubble? 

It's not over til it doubles in a day or so 

should that ever happen...
...on this day we will make more than we have done all our lives. 

[Elwar]

I will not be satisfied until I can buy 10k pizzas with 1 bitcoin.

[600watt]

I will not be satisfied until I can buy 10k pizzas with 1 bitcoin.

now that is some kind of flippening I like.

[JayJuanGee]

This is it. My friends that have 0 knowledge or interest in bitcoin are buying BTC and ETH... The bubble, the force of bubble is in the full mode now!

Not full mode. Otherwise, we would see doublings in a week.

How long did the doublings in a week continue for in 2013? I missed the run up back then, this time round will be my first experience of a massive run up.

Why would it matter if you were around or not?

Posters cannot remember those kinds of specifics, anyhow, and would need to look at charts to recall specifics.

You can see that each bubble might rhyme but they are a bit different. 

This one is definitely different, too in terms of how gradual is the slope - however, we still kind of have an exponential that starts from $890 to present.. We also have 8 weekly green candles in a row and we also have 10 out of 11 weekly green candles - which shows bullish, but also motivations for a correction, too... but also contrary motives to show ongoing and prolonged upwards buying pressure which likely has some kind of symbiotic relationship with the shit-tons of money that is flowing into various alt cryptos, which was not taking place in previous bubbles. 


This whole thing is fucking amazing... and gosh.. makes you think that we could get doubling several weeks in a row - but nothing is guaranteed. 

Currently, I am thinking that there is about 5 weeks of upwards price momentum in this upwards phase - even though there could also be a red candle in there, perhaps... but even 3 weeks of doubling from here would seem to justify some kind of meaningful correction of 50% or more, no?

[sirazimuth]

yu know things are good/bullish if/when a red candle is interpreted as a correction rather than a crash.
helps to deflate the perceived bubble once in awhile too...

oh cmon Coinbase... $3000... you can do it!

[JayJuanGee]

So we'd have to be at 6k in a week at this point for it to be a bubble? 

Yeah.. that seems to be a bit much... but surely it is possible to go to $10k on this run - however, even going in the $4k to $6k territory seems to have difficulties to achieve.

At this point, I think a bit of resistance in the $3300 to $3600 territory and then go into the $4k to $6k price territory and then correct by up to 50% and maybe even below $2k.. but yeah, maybe I am being a bit too bearish and not really recognizing the upwards potential and not really appreciating how FOMO really plays out  - which is more likely a shooting beyond $6k and a correction that may be just shy of $10k?

I gotta think about this, and try to purge myself of such bearish tendencies.

[droizs]

Meanwhile, polo has 7500btc sell order of eth at 0.114 and it's not getting pulled...
Lets see what will happen.

[HI-TEC99]

This is it. My friends that have 0 knowledge or interest in bitcoin are buying BTC and ETH... The bubble, the force of bubble is in the full mode now!

Not full mode. Otherwise, we would see doublings in a week.

How long did the doublings in a week continue for in 2013? I missed the run up back then, this time round will be my first experience of a massive run up.

In 2013 it went like this.

First bubble:
Double in a month
Double in 2 weeks
Double in 1 week
Double in half a week
Up a bit then crash

Second bubble:
Double in a month
Double in 2 weeks
Double in 1 week
Up a bit then crash

Recently we doubled in a month (1250 to 2500) but then it flattened out. That's a good thing.

Thanks, that's very useful information. I tried looking at the charts, but it's not easy to see what really happened from them. Zoomed out they average out all the highs and lows.

[marcus_of_augustus]

This talk of doubling times is my cue to weigh in with an update, calling it as I sees it.

The bull mode begun mid-2015 is clearly in full flight, we crossed $1500 conclusively around May 1 and now it seems like $3000 will form a base soon enough. So doubling period is currently ~6 weeks. Given that, the blow-off of this adoption wave likely has 2~3 doublings left, final top still targetting around 10-12k near end of July.

I refuse to call these bull runs "bubbles" as that is incorrect. Bubbles form once and then the speculative asset is sold down to worthlessness. After each major pullback the bitcoin market capitalisation (total float value) has never dropped below it's previous top in major fiat denominations. I just cannot believe how even respected Elliot wave analysts have fallen into the mind-trap of incorrectly referring to these bitcoin adoption waves as "bubbles".

[marcus_of_augustus]

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=49562

Pater is a very good thinker when it comes to monetary theories, yet like all those who are long-steeped in gold-buggery I find they have some phantom mind obstacles to overcome when considering the 'moneyness' of cryptocurrencies. Never-the-less, a good read to see how the goldbugs are coming around to crypto.

One interesting thing about the chart of bitcoin is that it has a text-book Elliott wave shape (we have not labeled the chart, but it seems obvious to us that it lends itself to such labeling). This applies to the weekly chart shown further below as well and also to other time frames. Regardless of what one thinks of Elliott wave theory, price trends in financial markets definitely have fractal characteristics.

Empirically they consist of sequences of patterns that are recurring over and over again in every conceivable time frame, i.e., the same patterns (or rather, very similar patterns, such as for instance triangles) that form on daily, weekly or monthly charts, also form on one minute, ten minute and hourly charts. These patterns appear to reflect various stages in the evolution of market psychology within the time frames captured by these charts.

R.N. Elliott cataloged such recurring patterns in the stock market and tried to find out if they followed rules that could be defined and used for forecasts. Obviously such an endeavor is fraught with many difficulties. Particularly the validity of the theoretical framework that was created after the empirical identification of said patterns and the promulgation of the technical rules governing the Elliott wave principle seems questionable.

But that is not really what we want to discuss here. One doesn’t necessarily have to believe that the Elliott wave principle is valid or useful for making accurate market forecasts in order to recognize that its leading practitioners have gathered a number of useful empirical insights.

In this particular case we mention it mainly because typically, “textbook” Elliott wave patterns only emerge in markets with broad participation. Since these patterns reflect the predominant mood of market participants, or if you will, the “market mind”, recognizable shapes only tend to form in liquid markets with a large number of participants. While we cannot say what precisely the threshold is, i.e., at what point pure randomness is replaced with something that resembles a more orderly arrangement, the price chart itself conveys the information that the threshold has been crossed.

The bid/ask spread of bitcoin is usually quite tight as well, although it has tended to widen amid the recent increase in volatility. We observed trading activity at one of the larger exchanges while it traded around $2,400 and a the time the bid/ask spread fluctuated from as little as 30 cents to short term wides of up to $7 when short term volatility spiked. Even at its widest the spread was therefore just ~0.2%, which also shows that this is market with broad participation. Keep in mind that we just observed the spread over a limited time window, it is therefore possible that it will occasionally be wider, but probably not by much.

[holzer]

It's interesting watching the poloniex ETH/BTC orders once that huge sell wall started to get eaten at 0.1440000. Someone was trying to counter it with a small buy wall at 0.3999999 that kept replishing over and over again everytime it was bought up. Someone really doesn't want the ETH price to drop. Looks like they finally gave up after buying a few thousand coins.

[JayJuanGee]

This talk of doubling times is my cue to weigh in with an update, calling it as I sees it.

The bull mode begun mid-2015 is clearly in full flight, we crossed $1500 conclusively around May 1 and now it seems like $3000 will form a base soon enough. So doubling period is currently ~6 weeks. Given that, the blow-off of this adoption wave is likely has 2~3 doublings left, final top still targetting around 10-12k near end of July.

I refuse to call these bull runs "bubbles" as that is incorrect. Bubbles form once and then the speculative asset is sold down to worthlessness. After each major pullback the bitcoin market capitalisation (total float value) has never dropped below it's previous top in major fiat denominations. I just cannot believe how even respected Elliot wave analysts have fallen into the mind-trap of incorrectly referring to these bitcoin adoption waves as "bubbles".

I'm going to have to fix my ways in regards to my bubble reference matters, but if we get into 2x reference matters or even describing what happened in the BTC market, I see the situation a bit differently.. maybe I am too bearish?

1) I will assert that this BTC price climb started at about $250 in October 2015;

2) By December 2015 (about 10 weeks later), the price mostly stabilized above $410 (about a 65% increase)

3) By June 2016 (about 6 months later), the price mostly stabilized above $586 (about a 43% increase)

4) By December 2016 (about 6 months later), the price mostly stabilized above $800) (about a 37% increase)

5) In the past 11 weeks, the price largely grew exponentially from $890 to $2960 (about a 333% increase)  (an average of about 30% increase per week)

I don't know what to make out of all of these facts, but is seems like the past 11 weeks are in a kind of unstable exponential growth period.

Sure, I have already hypothesized similar to you, Marcus, that we have another month and a half growth that is quite possible, and I am basing my assertion on the increased volume of money that seems to be coming into the crypto space that is not likely to dry up any time soon and likely to affect bitcoin prices, specifically. 
 Previously, I had considered $6k to be the top of any expected exponential bubble, but currently, I am trying to purge my bearish thoughts in order to help myself to consider prices approaching $10k as within the realm of "reasonable."

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Meanwhile, polo has 7500btc sell order of eth at 0.114 and it's not getting pulled...
Lets see what will happen.

Just got pulled.

[YourMother]

I need a big supply of REGRETAMINE. Most of the people that didn't give a shit about my bitcoin speeches throughout the years are now aware that bitcoin's value has skyrocketed by 15x.

Ooops, it turns out that ignorance is expensive. On the other hand, we can't all do the same thing. We need wage cucks too. I still remember how you were all laughing at me.

[droizs]

Meanwhile, polo has 7500btc sell order of eth at 0.114 and it's not getting pulled...
Lets see what will happen.

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/895/845/2f9.jpg

Just got pulled.

Not pulled, bought...

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Meanwhile, polo has 7500btc sell order of eth at 0.114 and it's not getting pulled...
Lets see what will happen.

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/895/845/2f9.jpg

Just got pulled.

Not pulled, bought...

Nobody buys 3000 BTC worth of anything on Polo. You can bet it was whoever put it there.

[Elwar]

This talk of doubling times is my cue to weigh in with an update, calling it as I sees it.

The bull mode begun mid-2015 is clearly in full flight, we crossed $1500 conclusively around May 1 and now it seems like $3000 will form a base soon enough. So doubling period is currently ~6 weeks. Given that, the blow-off of this adoption wave likely has 2~3 doublings left, final top still targetting around 10-12k near end of July.

I refuse to call these bull runs "bubbles" as that is incorrect. Bubbles form once and then the speculative asset is sold down to worthlessness. After each major pullback the bitcoin market capitalisation (total float value) has never dropped below it's previous top in major fiat denominations. I just cannot believe how even respected Elliot wave analysts have fallen into the mind-trap of incorrectly referring to these bitcoin adoption waves as "bubbles".

The key thing to remember is that all of these people buying right now will likely not be buying during a year or two of dropping prices. They want the quick buck and are not thinking long term. I was on a "financial independence" reddit forum where people talk about investment strategies to get to financial independence and a few are talking about how close they are and how they are considering investing in bitcoin to get them over the top.

Just more opportunity for me to buy their cheap coins like I did during the last bear market.