Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ManBearPig]

I'd hesitantly offer that we are in the region of BTC's true value. And it just about has 3 figures.

Let's build a base for some long, slow but steady growth through the summer.

Next spike may be a long time coming.

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[Rampion]

Didn't check the data, but I'm the only one feeling this is the Wednesday with lowest volume in 2013? We had many weekends with more volume than this.

Update: And the results are in:



6th highest US dollar volume for a Wednesday but only just tops the first couple of Wednesdays in the 5% daily rush we had.

Oh and sorry if I'm getting in the way of the action here zzzz....

Are you joking? This information is golden.

Honestly I prefer to look at the BTC volume - yesterday would be the second day with lowest BTC volume, after March 13th...

Tipping point ahead.

My feeling is that we're heading for consolidation and reasonable and sustainable growth. No bear market at sight IMO, but in any case I'm still keeping enough fiat to take any cheap coins that some crazy bear may dump.

[wilfried]

mtgox api sums up bids and asks of same value, right?
is there a way to know how many orders a price in the wall consists of?

[ChartBuddy]

[lebing]

Next spike may be a long time coming.

Quoted for posterity 

[sohd]

http://www.sierrachart.com/image.php?l=1368095269568.png
$112 in ~5hours - and then?

[molecular]

due to low volume I hope you guys don't mind a crosspost from here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=192719.msg2084624#msg2084624



to enter a bear market we need a lower low. Depending on timeframe there are 2 potential lows to break:

• the $80 low on 5/3 (red)
• the $50 low on 4/16 (yellow)

if we don't make a new low below $80, it's not a bear market but a correction (by investopedia definitions quoted further above). We could then enter a bull market or at least further consolodation pattern (green). Of course there's different options for "green", I just outlined roughly one of them. A break of the $170 top would clearly mean we're in a bull market again (both higher highs and higher lows would've been reached then)

I don't think we have to wait more than a month to see this resolved.

[lebing]

due to low volume I hope you guys don't mind a crosspost from here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=192719.msg2084624#msg2084624



to enter a bear market we need a lower low. Depending on timeframe there are 2 potential lows to break:

• the $80 low on 5/3 (red)
• the $50 low on 4/16 (yellow)

if we don't make a new low below $80, it's not a bear market but a correction (by investopedia definitions quoted further above). We could then enter a bull market or at least further consolodation pattern (green). Of course there's different options for "green", I just outlined roughly one of them. A break of the $170 top would clearly mean we're in a bull market again (both higher highs and higher lows would've been reached then)

I don't think we have to wait more than a month to see this resolved.

Yep, this is what I've been thinking for awhile. Nice to see it backed up with definitions and looking quite fancy.

[solex]

due to low volume I hope you guys don't mind a crosspost from here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=192719.msg2084624#msg2084624



to enter a bear market we need a lower low. Depending on timeframe there are 2 potential lows to break:

• the $80 low on 5/3 (red)
• the $50 low on 4/16 (yellow)

if we don't make a new low below $80, it's not a bear market but a correction (by investopedia definitions quoted further above). We could then enter a bull market or at least further consolodation pattern (green). Of course there's different options for "green", I just outlined roughly one of them. A break of the $170 top would clearly mean we're in a bull market again (both higher highs and higher lows would've been reached then)

I don't think we have to wait more than a month to see this resolved.

Interesting, but no scenario has the rate between $80 and $120 during the last week of May, which must have a high probability...

[ManBearPig]

Next spike may be a long time coming.

Quoted for posterity 

Fair enough Shall I define that as a 100% spike in say a month? And say late summer? I'm digging myself deeper aren't I? I'll continue to be vague. Worked well for Nostradamus

Rampion: yes with regards to BTC volume it's WAY down but I personally think it's more relevant to look as currency volume now that there are a lot of new hands on board.

[smoothie]

I dont think we will break out of $266 at least until November or December. That may even be too soon.

Hmm time will tell.

[ChartBuddy]

[Rampion]

due to low volume I hope you guys don't mind a crosspost from here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=192719.msg2084624#msg2084624



to enter a bear market we need a lower low. Depending on timeframe there are 2 potential lows to break:

• the $80 low on 5/3 (red)
• the $50 low on 4/16 (yellow)

if we don't make a new low below $80, it's not a bear market but a correction (by investopedia definitions quoted further above). We could then enter a bull market or at least further consolodation pattern (green). Of course there's different options for "green", I just outlined roughly one of them. A break of the $170 top would clearly mean we're in a bull market again (both higher highs and higher lows would've been reached then)

I don't think we have to wait more than a month to see this resolved.

This is pretty much my analysis too. I think there's some real powerful resistance at $90, and that breaking $80 is very unlikely unless something disruptive happens and panic is triggered (this is always a possibility with a bleeding edge technology like Bitcoin).

I therefore believe that unless something negative happens we're headed towards a consolidation phase and not a bear market. But the truth is that only time will tell.

[molecular]

Interesting, but no scenario has the rate between $80 and $120 during the last week of May, which must have a high probability...

True, and that scenario exists (let's call it the "grey" scenario). That exhibition of mine is not complete.

btw: I think "green" is most likely, followed by "grey", then "red", then "yellow". That might be based on wishful thinking, though.

[needmorecoins]

A lot of bitcoin traders finally able to sleep/live life.

[Rampion]

Interesting, but no scenario has the rate between $80 and $120 during the last week of May, which must have a high probability...

True, and that scenario exists (let's call it the "grey" scenario). That exhibition is not complete.

btw: I think "green" is most likely, followed by "grey", then "red", then "yellow". That might be based on wishful thinking, though.

I believe "grey" is most likely, then "red", then "green", then "yellow". Anyhow impossible to be sure ATM. Buying or selling now is just a gamble.

[molecular]

A lot of bitcoin traders finally able to sleep/live life.

Usually those who fall asleep or go out and enjoy life on low volume wake up / come back to a radically changed picture.

I'm not suggesting to not do that, though.

[smoothie]

A lot of bitcoin traders finally able to sleep/live life.

Dont speak too soon.  

[01BTC10]

Sleep is for the weak. 

[ineededausername]

I don't think we've ever seen quite this level of entrenchment after January.  This might be the stability we've been waiting for