Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rampion]

But I was too pessimistic. I still think we can go quite lower short term, but I'm now pretty much convinced that $50 was the real bottom. In my book, thats quite bullish - heck, we where at $14 at the beginning of this year

People seem to be forgetting that you could buy thousands of Bitcoin for $15 each only four months ago.

Are they really worth $113 or more right now ?

Nobody seems to think so or they would not be sitting on the orderbook remaining unsold for days.

The market is different from 4 months ago.

Consider 11 million bitcoins. 1 million probably lost, and 75% sitting in wallets rarely moving. This leaves 2.5 million active in the market, the "free float"
Winklevii have absorbed 110k for a long-term investment. Many others have done the same. Assume that 1000 people have recently taken 1000 coins each for long-term holdings as the news frenzy went on. That means the 2.5m free float has been halved. Market dynamics are complex and this could easily mean a stable 8x increase in value.

This will constantly change. When BTC passes $1000 many stale coins from the 75% will wake-up and hit the market. Expect price swings like $1,700 to $700 in a few days. All the newspuppies who called Bitcoin a bubble ponzi will also wake-up and claim they were right. It continues...

I give you that the next crash will be brutal. Huge amount of hoarders is waiting for triple digits to dump for good

The slower we climb there, the bigger will be the depth, the better will be the infrastructure, the softer it will be the fall

[UltimateReaper]

This stability is scaring me...

Quiet before the storm. Something bigs gonna happen.

+1

I'm guessing a continued downtrend, or irrational rally leading to an even bigger crash. Maybe.

Or monetization?

Problem is I don't really think bitcoins are worth as much as they are now. Even counting hype I'd say $75, and that's very generous considering many of the hyper bears out there.

[TiagoTiago]

A stable sine wave of about 20USD of amplitude and about 15 minutes of wavelength for a few days would be nice...

The Bitcoin market is more polar.

i.e.

Wolfram Alpha isn't being cooperative, what does that looks like?

[Frozenlock]

Or monetization?

Problem is I don't really think bitcoins are worth as much as they are now. Even counting hype I'd say 75, and that's very generous considering many of the hyper bears out there.

Hyper-monetization: Questioning the "Bitcoin bubble" bubble

TL;DR: for money, the higher the value, the more interesting it becomes.

To imagine how different this is from a classic asset bubble, it would be as if not only the price of bubble-era houses were rising, but also that their actual sought-after qualities as houses were improving spontaneously at the same time. Such houses might sprout new rooms with no one building them, with new paint jobs appearing mysteriously overnight without any painters having visited.

[SZD]

I'm amazed the price has been so stable with the DDoS or whatever going on for so long. Volume is really really low.

[nimda]

A stable sine wave of about 20USD of amplitude and about 15 minutes of wavelength for a few days would be nice...

The Bitcoin market is more polar.

i.e.

Wolfram Alpha isn't being cooperative, what does that looks like?

plot (3*sin(4x^2)^2)^(1/3) from 0 to 3

[fitty]

I give you that the next crash will be brutal. Huge amount of hoarders is waiting for triple digits to dump for good

The slower we climb there, the bigger will be the depth, the better will be the infrastructure, the softer it will be the fall

I think the opposite. You can now use Bitcoins at more and more places. I REALLY missed not being able to convert BTC directly to amazon giftcards. We've been through crashes.

If you bought at $105 when it crashed from $266, you're up.
If you bought at $50 you're WAY up.
If you bought at $79 when it crashed you're up a lot.
If you bought at $98 a few days ago you're up.

If it ever gets close to $50 again, there will be a line of people waiting to buy every single Bitcoin people want to sell. Lots of people doubled their money. Notice how quickly we bounce back from coin dumps now? When we went to 98, day traders bought every coin in sight. We were sub $100 for a new york minute. All those people who bought from 98-110, tossed it right up on the ask side from 110-120. People see a crash as easy money now. Because it has been.

If it crashes, people will see it as a value play. There's lots and lots of people who will invest long on Bitcoin, and give them a chance to buy more at $40-$60-$80 they'll do that all day long.

I'm not worried about the next crash, I can't wait for it.

[Quantum_Negatum]

I'm amazed the price has been so stable with the DDoS or whatever going on for so long. Volume is really really low.

I'm amazed at the number of bitcoiners who believe a stable price with volume this low is a good thing in an almost purely speculative market.

[oda.krell]

Respectfully, it is surprising to me that with your attention to semantics you missed the distinguishing point that I made.

Of course I take for granted that doubling of bitcoin price every 30 days is not something that can go on forever,

The market has already demonstrated that the January to March trendline was not sustainable - the crash from $266 fell right through it. One must have numerical blinders on not to recognize bitcoin prices cannot double every thirty days indefinitely.

Exponential bitcoin growth is happening now at perhaps 4-5x annually when measured according to the prominent lows of bitcoin prices at Mt.Gox 2011 to present.

What I actually said was that the notion is unsustainable. If bitcoin stops going up, then obviously the notion, i.e. belief that it will keep doublling upwards every 30 days,  becomes less prevalent - right?

You've missed the point I tried to make. Then again, I have a habit of writing those huge walls of text in which my original point gets lost, so I'll try it again:

There is nothing "unsustainable" per se about the price doubling every 30 days. It is factually what happened for a brief amount of time. Then it stopped. Everyone who was cautious, realizing that such growth cannot possibly go on for long, sold shortly before the crash, and was rewarded.

But actually following the logic of the (unconditional) statement that doubling every 30 days is "unsustainable" would mean you would have sold long before April 10, and would have missed out on a lot of profit.

Point is: any growth, no matter how outlandish it seems, is appropriate for the time during which it occurs (what a delicious tautology). Adding a qualifiying statement, why it probably cannot occur longer than some duration X, for some reason Y, is informative. On the other hand, the unqualified statement "this growth is unsustainable" is similarly fallacious to concluding that nobody can win the lottery from the fact that each individual ticket holder is extremely unlikely to win the lottery.

* * *

I am probably just ignorant of the pragmatics of the word "unsustainable". I blame vague, self-diagnosed "autism". Yeah, that should work.

[Frozenlock]

I'm amazed the price has been so stable with the DDoS or whatever going on for so long. Volume is really really low.

I'm amazed at the number of bitcoiners who believe a stable price with volume this low is a good thing in an almost purely speculative market.

[Quantum_Negatum]

Unless Mt. Gox restores full pump n' dump privileges to the bots, expect sub $40, possibly even sub $20, within a week.

[UltimateReaper]

I'm amazed the price has been so stable with the DDoS or whatever going on for so long. Volume is really really low.

Stable... More like "dead"

[UltimateReaper]

Unless Mt. Gox restores full pump n' dump privileges to the bots, expect sub $40, possibly even sub $20, within a week.

That seems extreme.

[mb300sd]

I'm amazed the price has been so stable with the DDoS or whatever going on for so long. Volume is really really low.

I'm amazed at the number of bitcoiners who believe a stable price with volume this low is a good thing in an almost purely speculative market.

http://youtu.be/LvuPES4I-dw?t=42s

[ChartBuddy]

[UltimateReaper]

Or monetization?

Problem is I don't really think bitcoins are worth as much as they are now. Even counting hype I'd say 75, and that's very generous considering many of the hyper bears out there.

Hyper-monetization: Questioning the "Bitcoin bubble" bubble

TL;DR: for money, the higher the value, the more interesting it becomes.

To imagine how different this is from a classic asset bubble, it would be as if not only the price of bubble-era houses were rising, but also that their actual sought-after qualities as houses were improving spontaneously at the same time. Such houses might sprout new rooms with no one building them, with new paint jobs appearing mysteriously overnight without any painters having visited.

I can't even that article.

I mean I English,

but I can't even.

I get the gist. If you're saying that the game has changed, I think so too. Right now though, I don't see much reason to be short term bullish.

Edit: That being said... this is bitcoin we're talking about.

[Quantum_Negatum]

Unless Mt. Gox restores full pump n' dump privileges to the bots, expect sub $40, possibly even sub $20, within a week.

That seems extreme.

Ok, sub $60, or possibly even sub $50.

[samson]

Unless Mt. Gox restores full pump n' dump privileges to the bots, expect sub $40, possibly even sub $20, within a week.

That seems extreme.

Ok, sub $60, or possibly even sub $50.

A further test of the 'double bottom' at around $50 would be great right now.

I'm slightly biased as I have a large order in the $50's at the moment.

[yakka]

This stability is scaring me...

Quiet before the storm. Something bigs gonna happen.

I think if i sell 1 btc now for 112$,  i can buy 112btc on sunday.

Edited:
I think if i sell 1 btc now for 105$,  i can buy 105btc on sunday.

[fitty]

This stability is scaring me...

Quiet before the storm. Something bigs gonna happen.

I think if i sell 1 btc now for 112$,  i can buy 112btc on sunday.

Edited:
I think if i sell 1 btc now for 105$,  i can buy 105btc on sunday.

Thanks for the edit but you had already gone full retard no need to double down.