Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rampion]

It's very simple, once everyone is a bull we've reached the top and we're going down hard. When everyone is a bear waiting for cheaper coins the market will go up, hard. When it's a 50/50 mix we're probably going nowhere and there's only consolidation.

You've pretty much nailed it

[adamstgBit]

It's very simple, once everyone is a bull we've reached the top and we're going down hard. When everyone is a bear waiting for cheaper coins the market will go up, hard. When it's a 50/50 mix we're probably going nowhere and there's only consolidation.

You've pretty much nailed it

the question remains whose buying when everyone is bear, and whose selling when everyone is bull

JP morgan is manipulating bitcoin! 

[SlipperySlope]

Ok, i did market orders only today. I'm tired of trading this thing. (i was waiting for a re-entry point since when i sold everything at 110, i kicked myself not to have bought at 78$).
I bought at 122 and sold at 119. I bought again at 121 (5% of losses only for this move?).

Cashed out to a paper wallet, i don't want to see mtgox again for the next 2 months. I reached the 0.29% trading fees, they want me to get addicted. I have other things to do in the meanwhile, the only choose was between staying all in or all out.

Bitcoin conference, lot of positive media reviews, lot of buzz, 40k btc on buy orders from here to 100$, i don't think that this will be another 2011, but this confidence should tell me that maybe everything is out there to convince me to do the wrong choice.

We will see, bitcoin. 2 months from now, we will see.

This change of sentiment by one trader is entirely consistent with the steady drop in volume after the April 10 peak.

[SlipperySlope]

If trading volume drops off for the remainder of the day, and volume over the weekend is relatively slow as we have come to expect, then the bid depth chart could fill in to form a narrow trading range, e.g. between $117 and $120 over the next 48 hours.

[Rampion]

Ok, i did market orders only today. I'm tired of trading this thing. (i was waiting for a re-entry point since when i sold everything at 110, i kicked myself not to have bought at 78$).
I bought at 122 and sold at 119. I bought again at 121 (5% of losses only for this move?).

Cashed out to a paper wallet, i don't want to see mtgox again for the next 2 months. I reached the 0.29% trading fees, they want me to get addicted. I have other things to do in the meanwhile, the only choose was between staying all in or all out.

Bitcoin conference, lot of positive media reviews, lot of buzz, 40k btc on buy orders from here to 100$, i don't think that this will be another 2011, but this confidence should tell me that maybe everything is out there to convince me to do the wrong choice.

We will see, bitcoin. 2 months from now, we will see.

This change of sentiment by one trader is entirely consistent with the steady drop in volume after the April 10 peak.

For the record: I've changed my sentiment over the days too, I've had pretty much the same process as cedivad. Yeah, at the beginning I was quite sure of Bearapocalypse 2011 reloaded - but from one side I saw how I predicted lower bottoms than the ones we actually reached - every time. That made me think, there was not so much panic in the air.

Then, I make the same analysis as cedivad: lots of good buzz around Bitcoin. Yes, speculative trading has patterns that repeat themselves over time; but we have to acknowledge that everything around bitcoin (work done in infrastructure, positive news attention, investments done in real economy) is very different from 2011.

I'm a moderate bull ATM. I'm pretty sure that $50 was the bottom for this year - and this would very bullish signal IMO. Yeah, they may be more occasions for much cheaper coins than $120, but no way under $50. And I can tell you something: if we leave behind $125, I'm entering in motherfuckin-berserk-uberbull mode

[tHash]

I was told of breakout. Where is volume.

The USD volume today is higher than all but 2 days before the April craziness, and there are still hours left.   Even yesterday's anemic volume was greater than almost anything seen before January . . .

It's getting old listening to people complain about volume.   Volume is awesome!  

The speculator driven volume of April got us into trouble, we don't even want that.

[michaelGedi]

anyone care to speculate what happens to all the orders from 80-90ish down to $10 if we don't start heading that way in the coming weeks?

My understanding, mostly from reading this thread filled with comments from bitcoiners who've been around longer than myself, is that cheap coins are wanted.


If cheap coins slowly become less of a possiblity, does this make expensive coins more attractive, or the price too high and fiat preferable?

[Richy_T]

This is starting to feel like the pre-bubble action. Consolidation, rise, consolidation. If we hang on around this price much longer, I'd expect another bump upwards.

[Richy_T]

If cheap coins slowly become less of a possiblity, does this make expensive coins more attractive, or the price too high and fiat preferable?

If cheap coins don't materialize then the current price becomes cheap coins.

[michaelGedi]

This is starting to feel like the pre-bubble action. Consolidation, rise, consolidation. If we hang on around this price much longer, I'd expect another bump upwards.

yes, feels like a catch 22 here.

spent 24 hours considering all in at 113... looks like 118 is the new 113, perhaps

[Rampion]

anyone care to speculate what happens to all the orders from 80-90ish down to $10 if we don't start heading that way in the coming weeks?

My understanding, mostly from reading this thread filled with comments from bitcoiners who've been around longer than myself, is that cheap coins are wanted.


If cheap coins slowly become less of a possiblity, does this make expensive coins more attractive, or the price too high and fiat preferable?

I will just tell you something: we were buying $15 coins in January - and still placing our bids below spot to get "cheap" coins during dips.

Just 5 months later we want "cheap" coins in the $70s... Or.... Well... $90ish is cheap enough.

Take your own conclusions

EDIT: if I was not clear enough, bitcoins are always preferable. Fiat's only use is to get cheap coins now that we can.

[ronaldlee0917]

Why the boredom again?
I expected an afternoon full of actions.

[ineededausername]

Why the boredom again?
I expected an afternoon full of actions.

Because this is not what anyone thinks it is.  It moved from $11 to $12 back in late 2012, it might just be oscillating around normally.

[ChartBuddy]

[michaelGedi]

If cheap coins slowly become less of a possiblity, does this make expensive coins more attractive, or the price too high and fiat preferable?

If cheap coins don't materialize then the current price becomes cheap coins.

the reason I mentioned bitcoiners who'd been around longer than myself was in order to touch on gauging the possiblity of a certain price of coin just feeling too expensive.

e.g. If you've been around since $5 coins, this price is a bit ridiculous is it not? Considering it's still not widely adopted enough and we are still riding on speculation etc...

Also, if you cashed out on the way up at say 50, 90, 140 etc, then this price is not exactly profitable (in fiat terms) to buy back in. Unless you feel confident in the future of course. I guess that assumes profits haven't been made day trading and/or on the £50-160 rally.

[molecular]

Using my primitive trend detection skills I drew a picture...



as everyone knows our nice huge beautiful triangle has been breached to the upside. Upper bound (1) needs to be redrawn (line 2 is an example, can also be drawn differently). Not so nice-looking any more.

I tried to draw some possible trends:

• small green channel: to enter short-term (3 day) uptrend we need to break $125
• red channel: to enter short-term (7 day) downtrend we need to break $80
• big green channel: to enter mid-term (4 weeks) uptrend, we need to break $166 (I didn't draw the green line for this one)

we might not enter a clear trend at all and just smurf along in the yellow area.

[Rampion]

Using my primitive trend detection skills I drew a picture...



as everyone knows our nice huge beautiful triangle has been breached to the upside. Upper bound (1) needs to be redrawn (line 2 is an example, can also be drawn differently). Not so nice-looking any more.

I tried to draw some possible trends:

• small green channel: to enter short-term (3 day) uptrend we need to break $125
• red channel: to enter short-term (7 day) downtrend we need to break $80
• big green channel: to enter mid-term (4 weeks) uptrend, we need to break $166 (I didn't draw the green line for this one)

we might not enter a clear trend at all and just smurf along in the yellow area.

I say yellow or small green. Don't think we're breaking $80 in the next 7 days, that would be too good to be true

[michaelGedi]

anyone care to speculate what happens to all the orders from 80-90ish down to $10 if we don't start heading that way in the coming weeks?

My understanding, mostly from reading this thread filled with comments from bitcoiners who've been around longer than myself, is that cheap coins are wanted.


If cheap coins slowly become less of a possiblity, does this make expensive coins more attractive, or the price too high and fiat preferable?

I will just tell you something: we were buying $15 coins in January - and still placing our bids below spot to get "cheap" coins during dips.

Just 5 months later we want "cheap" coins in the $70s... Or.... Well... $90ish is cheap enough.

Take your own conclusions

EDIT: if I was not clear enough, bitcoins are always preferable. Fiat's only use is to get cheap coins now that we can.

ok, that's pretty clear

I guess there is also a value based on a kind of sentimental attachment as well. Bitcoins exponential growth has no doubt been greatly benificial for early adopters. I can see how this, and the further potential growth of bitcoin would be quite compelling, especially when added to the idealism that surrounds the coin (for some).


back on topic:

[molecular]

I say yellow or small green. Don't think we're breaking $80 in the next 7 days, that would be too good to be true

That's what I'm thinking: yellow most likely, small green maybe leading to big green possible, red very unlikely.

EDIT: on second thought I should've drawn the yellow smurf area only up to $125, not $149 because in case we break $125 that'd be green.

[MAbtc]

It's getting old listening to people complain about volume.   Volume is awesome!  

The speculator driven volume of April got us into trouble, we don't even want that.

 

Looking at the past week, not April.