Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[michaelGedi]

bots off on gox again?

[1715357064]

1715357064

[1715357064]

1715357064

[1715357064]

1715357064

[sve9mark]

Using my primitive trend detection skills I drew a picture...

https://i.imgur.com/GdlnBdVl.png

as everyone knows our nice huge beautiful triangle has been breached to the upside. Upper bound (1) needs to be redrawn (line 2 is an example, can also be drawn differently). Not so nice-looking any more.

I tried to draw some possible trends:

• small green channel: to enter short-term (3 day) uptrend we need to break $125
• red channel: to enter short-term (7 day) downtrend we need to break $80
• big green channel: to enter mid-term (4 weeks) uptrend, we need to break $166 (I didn't draw the green line for this one)

we might not enter a clear trend at all and just smurf along in the yellow area.

So we will either have a short-term uptrend, mid-term uptrend, short-term down trend, or smurf along in more consolidation. Sounds like you got all your bases covered! In all seriousness you actually are right in a way. No one has any idea where we are headed!

[Jaques]

It's getting old listening to people complain about volume.   Volume is awesome!  

The speculator driven volume of April got us into trouble, we don't even want that.

 

Looking at the past week, not April.

volume was not enough yet to confirm break out of triangle IMO

[Rampion]

anyone care to speculate what happens to all the orders from 80-90ish down to $10 if we don't start heading that way in the coming weeks?

My understanding, mostly from reading this thread filled with comments from bitcoiners who've been around longer than myself, is that cheap coins are wanted.


If cheap coins slowly become less of a possiblity, does this make expensive coins more attractive, or the price too high and fiat preferable?

I will just tell you something: we were buying $15 coins in January - and still placing our bids below spot to get "cheap" coins during dips.

Just 5 months later we want "cheap" coins in the $70s... Or.... Well... $90ish is cheap enough.

Take your own conclusions

EDIT: if I was not clear enough, bitcoins are always preferable. Fiat's only use is to get cheap coins now that we can.

ok, that's pretty clear

I guess there is also a value based on a kind of sentimental attachment as well. Bitcoins exponential growth has no doubt been greatly benificial for early adopters. I can see how this, and the further potential growth of bitcoin would be quite compelling, especially when added to the idealism that surrounds the coin (for some).


back on topic:

I always stress that the whole "I missed the early adopters train" is BS. Anybody buying bitcoins today is still an early adopter. Look at the market, there are only $20M on the order book of the exchange that controls 80% of the market. The potential is HUGE, and we are at a very early stage. Understanding Bitcoins is time consuming. Buying for the first time is slow. Real economy is non existant, most of the revenues of BTC related business come from gambling, drugs or selling Bitcoin mining hardware. We are just at the gates of prime time.

I can guarantee you that those who bought bitcoins at $10 during the 2011 bear market where also repeating the same story about "early adopters". Just zoom out and look at the big picture.

[MAbtc]

It's getting old listening to people complain about volume.   Volume is awesome!  

The speculator driven volume of April got us into trouble, we don't even want that.

 

Looking at the past week, not April.

volume was not enough yet to confirm break out of triangle IMO

I agree. That was my original (unquoted here) point.




We'll see, but could easily be a false breakout.

[Nightowlace]

anyone care to speculate what happens to all the orders from 80-90ish down to $10 if we don't start heading that way in the coming weeks?

My understanding, mostly from reading this thread filled with comments from bitcoiners who've been around longer than myself, is that cheap coins are wanted.


If cheap coins slowly become less of a possiblity, does this make expensive coins more attractive, or the price too high and fiat preferable?

I will just tell you something: we were buying $15 coins in January - and still placing our bids below spot to get "cheap" coins during dips.

Just 5 months later we want "cheap" coins in the $70s... Or.... Well... $90ish is cheap enough.

Take your own conclusions

EDIT: if I was not clear enough, bitcoins are always preferable. Fiat's only use is to get cheap coins now that we can.

ok, that's pretty clear

I guess there is also a value based on a kind of sentimental attachment as well. Bitcoins exponential growth has no doubt been greatly benificial for early adopters. I can see how this, and the further potential growth of bitcoin would be quite compelling, especially when added to the idealism that surrounds the coin (for some).


back on topic:

I always stress that the whole "I missed the early adopters train" is BS. Anybody buying bitcoins today is still an early adopter. Look at the market, there are only $20M on the order book of the exchange that controls 80% of the market. The potential is HUGE, and we are at a very early stage. Understanding Bitcoins is time consuming. Buying for the first time is slow. Real economy is non existant, most of the revenues of BTC related business come from gambling, drugs or selling Bitcoin mining hardware. We are just at the gates of prime time.

I can guarantee you that those who bought bitcoins at $10 during the 2011 bear market where also repeating the same story about "early adopters". Just zoom out and look at the big picture.

+1

[molecular]

So we will either have a short-term uptrend, mid-term uptrend, short-term down trend, or smurf along in more consolidation. Sounds like you got all your bases covered! In all seriousness you actually are right in a way. No one has any idea where we are headed!

This doesn't make any prediction. What it does do is show some key levels to watch ($125, $80) and what things will look like when they are.

Of course this is not news in any way, but I find it helps my planning to have a pic like this.

It's can also be used as a foundation for arguing about the probabilities of these outcomes.

[prophetx]

My gut is screaming bull trap

My gut is screaming bull trap, bear market, capitulation, and bear trap all at the same time.


Getting mixed signals here.

Once, when asked about his gut feeling, Carl Sagan said: "I'd really rather not think with my gut, my brain does the job a lot better"  

Don't prodigies and athletes use the least amount of brain power? In fact high level operation has often been (curiously) linked to lower brain activity. Perhaps this has something to do with the subconscious. Anyways, I'm sticking to what I thought 10 or so days ago: downtrend.

Edit: that being said... I'm getting super impatient.

This pretty much sums up the market at the moment. Everyone thinks they will be able to get cheaper coins... but the longer they wait, the less likely that becomes. Once the bids exceed the all time high (not far off), I can see a massive spell of panic buying ensuing.

I'm willing to buy back in at a loss, even if it makes me bleed out, it's been far too long for the case to be otherwise, however, I'm still kind of thinking that BTC is overvalued at the moment. I'm leaving emotion out of this. It seems like bulls are always the same, and while I'm not a bear I just can' see sustainable growth right now.

The Venture capital, techcrunch activity and China are all massive, massive indicators on a medium/ long term... which is why I'm surprised we are not seeing more activity. Seems many are like you, not noticing how big these impacts will be. When the products/ deals/ whatever they spawn are announced (or before they are announced), make no mistake, it will be vicious and many hoping for cheap coins will be left on the sidelines.

As you said those are all medium to long term plays, which means little incremental ups over a long extended period of time as milestones are met.  

Contrast that to Cyprus which was very short term, in your face, get your f--kin money out NOW! As that new flow came in, more people jumped on the band wagon.


See the difference?

[Jaques]

I agree. That was my original (unquoted here) point.




We'll see, but could easily be a false breakout.

or maybe the triangle wasn't drawn correctly ...
meaning that there are more important formations still valid
like the other triangle exposed here earlier with upper line @125 ...

[Rampion]

My gut is screaming bull trap

My gut is screaming bull trap, bear market, capitulation, and bear trap all at the same time.


Getting mixed signals here.

Once, when asked about his gut feeling, Carl Sagan said: "I'd really rather not think with my gut, my brain does the job a lot better"  

Don't prodigies and athletes use the least amount of brain power? In fact high level operation has often been (curiously) linked to lower brain activity. Perhaps this has something to do with the subconscious. Anyways, I'm sticking to what I thought 10 or so days ago: downtrend.

Edit: that being said... I'm getting super impatient.

This pretty much sums up the market at the moment. Everyone thinks they will be able to get cheaper coins... but the longer they wait, the less likely that becomes. Once the bids exceed the all time high (not far off), I can see a massive spell of panic buying ensuing.

I'm willing to buy back in at a loss, even if it makes me bleed out, it's been far too long for the case to be otherwise, however, I'm still kind of thinking that BTC is overvalued at the moment. I'm leaving emotion out of this. It seems like bulls are always the same, and while I'm not a bear I just can' see sustainable growth right now.

The Venture capital, techcrunch activity and China are all massive, massive indicators on a medium/ long term... which is why I'm surprised we are not seeing more activity. Seems many are like you, not noticing how big these impacts will be. When the products/ deals/ whatever they spawn are announced (or before they are announced), make no mistake, it will be vicious and many hoping for cheap coins will be left on the sidelines.

As you said those are all medium to long term plays, which means little incremental ups over a long extended period of time as milestones are met.  

Contrast that to Cyprus which was very short term, in your face, get your f--kin money out NOW! As that new flow came in, more people jumped on the band wagon.


See the difference?

Cyprus thing is a joke. That was just speculative mania. I will ask you something: have you invested significant money in Bitcoin? If the answer is yes, how long did it take from the first moment you heard about it?

Again: entering into Bitcoin is a lengthy process - first you have to understand, not only what is Bitcoin but also how to keep your bitcoins safe. Then you have to find out how to buy them, and then you slowly start pouring money, just a little a the beginning.

That's everybody's process. When it will come the day that the average citizen will have the understanding and the means to quickly throw a lot of fiat into Bitcoin after the kind of news we had in March, then.... Well, you cannot imagine the kind of huge motherfucking bubbles we are going to see.

[molecular]

Cyprus thing is a joke. That was just speculative mania. I will ask you something: have you invested significant money in Bitcoin? If the answer is yes, how long did it take from the first moment you heard about it?

Again: entering into Bitcoin is a lengthy process - first you have to understand, not only what is Bitcoin but also how to keep your bitcoins safe. Then you have to find out how to buy them, and then you slowly start pouring money, just a little a the beginning.

That's everybody's process. When it will come the day that the average citizen will have the understanding and the means to quickly throw a lot of fiat into Bitcoin after the kind of news we had in March, then.... Well, you cannot imagine the kind of huge motherfucking bubbles we are going to see.

I have to agree with this 100%.

It took me 1 week to put $17 cash into an envelope and mail it to canada to buy my first coins. 2 more weeks to have a miner setup and initiated a bank transfer to gox. I consider that pretty fast and that was only possible because I had all kinds of prerequisites already in place (understanding of crypto, understanding of double spend problem, understanding of p2p network). I had to talk to noone to confirm this thing was legit and most likely functional. There was no misleading press or ponzi accusations all over the net either, which should slow the process even more in this day and age.

Average nowadays is probably more like 6 weeks from first exposure to first substantial buy.

We're thinking too short-term. There's all kinds of buffers (delays) and feedback loops in this system that need time to play out.

[michaelGedi]

anyone care to speculate what happens to all the orders from 80-90ish down to $10 if we don't start heading that way in the coming weeks?

My understanding, mostly from reading this thread filled with comments from bitcoiners who've been around longer than myself, is that cheap coins are wanted.


If cheap coins slowly become less of a possiblity, does this make expensive coins more attractive, or the price too high and fiat preferable?

I will just tell you something: we were buying $15 coins in January - and still placing our bids below spot to get "cheap" coins during dips.

Just 5 months later we want "cheap" coins in the $70s... Or.... Well... $90ish is cheap enough.

Take your own conclusions

EDIT: if I was not clear enough, bitcoins are always preferable. Fiat's only use is to get cheap coins now that we can.

ok, that's pretty clear

I guess there is also a value based on a kind of sentimental attachment as well. Bitcoins exponential growth has no doubt been greatly benificial for early adopters. I can see how this, and the further potential growth of bitcoin would be quite compelling, especially when added to the idealism that surrounds the coin (for some).

I always stress that the whole "I missed the early adopters train" is BS. Anybody buying bitcoins today is still an early adopter. Look at the market, there are only $20M on the order book of the exchange that controls 80% of the market. The potential is HUGE, and we are at a very early stage. Understanding Bitcoins is time consuming. Buying for the first time is slow. Real economy is non existant, most of the revenues of BTC related business come from gambling, drugs or selling Bitcoin mining hardware. We are just at the gates of prime time.

I can guarantee you that those who bought bitcoins at $10 during the 2011 bear market where also repeating the same story about "early adopters". Just zoom out and look at the big picture.

+1

I also agree with you.

I would argue however that there is a large difference in sentiment towards bitcoin itself... the currency, the culture... the nostalgia and so on. I was wondering how this would affect orders and the tendancy towards buy back in at higher prices. When is too expensive...? - that sort of thing.

I certainly don't feel on a special train for non early adopters. It's just a fact. If I was there at the time, I probably would have left it behind to do something else. Only now is the TRUE potential being awakened and the rest of the world is watching, and even then, who knows. I am grateful to be involved in the experiment and very much hope it succeeds. Not just for my own personal gain (but that too of course).

[ChartBuddy]

[sve9mark]

anyone care to speculate what happens to all the orders from 80-90ish down to $10 if we don't start heading that way in the coming weeks?

My understanding, mostly from reading this thread filled with comments from bitcoiners who've been around longer than myself, is that cheap coins are wanted.


If cheap coins slowly become less of a possiblity, does this make expensive coins more attractive, or the price too high and fiat preferable?

I will just tell you something: we were buying $15 coins in January - and still placing our bids below spot to get "cheap" coins during dips.

Just 5 months later we want "cheap" coins in the $70s... Or.... Well... $90ish is cheap enough.

Take your own conclusions

EDIT: if I was not clear enough, bitcoins are always preferable. Fiat's only use is to get cheap coins now that we can.

ok, that's pretty clear

I guess there is also a value based on a kind of sentimental attachment as well. Bitcoins exponential growth has no doubt been greatly benificial for early adopters. I can see how this, and the further potential growth of bitcoin would be quite compelling, especially when added to the idealism that surrounds the coin (for some).

I always stress that the whole "I missed the early adopters train" is BS. Anybody buying bitcoins today is still an early adopter. Look at the market, there are only $20M on the order book of the exchange that controls 80% of the market. The potential is HUGE, and we are at a very early stage. Understanding Bitcoins is time consuming. Buying for the first time is slow. Real economy is non existant, most of the revenues of BTC related business come from gambling, drugs or selling Bitcoin mining hardware. We are just at the gates of prime time.

I can guarantee you that those who bought bitcoins at $10 during the 2011 bear market where also repeating the same story about "early adopters". Just zoom out and look at the big picture.

+1

I also agree with you.

I would argue however that there is a large difference in sentiment towards bitcoin itself... the currency, the culture... the nostalgia and so on. I was wondering how this would affect orders and the tendancy towards buy back in at higher prices. When is too expensive...? - that sort of thing.

I certainly don't feel on a special train for non early adopters. It's just a fact. If I was there at the time, I probably would have left it behind to do something else. Only now is the TRUE potential being awakened and the rest of the world is watching, and even then, who knows. I am grateful to be involved in the experiment and very much hope it succeeds. Not just for my own personal gain (but that too of course).

I think the best way to look at the big picture is to ask yourself whether bitcoin will succeed or fail in the long term. Right now the hype is crazy, and for every person saying the price is going up, another is saying its going down. Hence why it is trading sideways.... no one knows!

I've been reading the old threads in this category, and the biggest losers are not those who stayed in while the price plummeted, it is those who listened to the bears, sold, and walked away! If you believe in a bright future for bitcoin, your best bet is to support it by buying BTC regularly, and spending them regularly! Much the same as you would support a company whose stock you own.

The biggest tests will come when the price falls dramatically and everyone is proclaiming that bitcoin is dead. Will you hold your ground, and buy more, or will you run for the hills as many have done in the last few years.

I know he isn't the most popular guy around here, but Warren Buffett has it right: "Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful".

Just my 2 cents.

[n8rwJeTt8TrrLKPa55eU]

Cyprus thing is a joke. That was just speculative mania. I will ask you something: have you invested significant money in Bitcoin? If the answer is yes, how long did it take from the first moment you heard about it?

Again: entering into Bitcoin is a lengthy process - first you have to understand, not only what is Bitcoin but also how to keep your bitcoins safe. Then you have to find out how to buy them, and then you slowly start pouring money, just a little a the beginning.

That's everybody's process. When it will come the day that the average citizen will have the understanding and the means to quickly throw a lot of fiat into Bitcoin after the kind of news we had in March, then.... Well, you cannot imagine the kind of huge motherfucking bubbles we are going to see.

I have to agree with this 100%.

It took me 1 week to put $17 cash into an envelope and mail it to canada to buy my first coins. 2 more weeks to have a miner setup and initiated a bank transfer to gox. I consider that pretty fast and that was only possible because I had all kinds of prerequisites already in place (understanding of crypto, understanding of double spend problem, understanding of p2p network). I had to talk to noone to confirm this thing was legit and most likely functional. There was no misleading press or ponzi accusations all over the net either, which should slow the process even more in this day and age.

Average nowadays is probably more like 6 weeks from first exposure to first substantial buy.

We're thinking too short-term. There's all kinds of buffers (delays) and feedback loops in this system that need time to play out.

Seconded.  If you're a goldbug libertarian with technical background and high risk tolerance, it's possible you might "get it" and buy relatively quickly, within a few weeks.  But that would be very unusual.  My experience with anyone lacking that magical quatrifecta, is that it takes months of investigating and being prodded before any action.  There are people I've been talking to about Bitcoin for almost two years, are positive about it, but still haven't pulled the trigger.

[Frozenlock]

My own little nagging to the bears. 

[michaelGedi]

I think the best way to look at the big picture is to ask yourself whether bitcoin will succeed or fail in the long term. Right now the hype is crazy, and for every person saying the price is going up, another is saying its going down. Hence why it is trading sideways.... no one knows!

I've been reading the old threads in this category, and the biggest losers are not those who stayed in while the price plummeted, it is those who listened to the bears, sold, and walked away! If you believe in a bright future for bitcoin, your best bet is to support it by buying BTC regularly, and spending them regularly! Much the same as you would support a company whose stock you own.

The biggest tests will come when the price falls dramatically and everyone is proclaiming that bitcoin is dead. Will you hold your ground, and buy more, or will you run for the hills as many have done in the last few years.

I know he isn't the most popular guy around here, but Warren Buffett has it right: "Be fearful when others are greedy, be greedy when others are fearful".

Just my 2 cents.

thanks..

the big question - "either no volume, or very high volume"...

I think everyone recognises it's potential long term value.

I'm not entirely convinced of bitcoin itself being useful as money, yet. The volatility is too much of a headfuck.

Buying shares in BTC seem like a good idea to cover all the bases. Investing BTC in BTC, and gaining BTC dividends while being able to sell the shares for BTC at a later date. This adds an extra dimension of risk though.

I will however be heading to Berlin this summer so I'll go and check out the Kreuzberg bitcoin economy in action.


- excuse the off topic ramblings

[fourkey2001]

The fall is near see this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=201445.0

[Ultraviolet]

Put fourkey on ignore before rptelia.

[Jaques]

The fall is near see this: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=201445.0

lol