Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[sarc]

If it does not go back down I will not buy in ... it just seems too risky for me at this price whatever anyone wants to say about fundamentals, future growth etc ... I just can't bring myself to do it. If I miss the opportunity to ride the train so be it ... worse things have already happened in my life.

This is pretty much exactly what I told my girlfriend when she finally asked why she wasn't getting hourly bitcoin updates anymore!

Though obviously, her eyes had glazed over before I finished the first sentence...

[deathcode]

Slightly contrarian, not trying to scare anyone, just giving the opinion of someone who is new to Bitcoin (about 6 weeks of exposure) and thinking about not jumping on board unless we go down significantly from here.

I was thinking the same of you on last december of 2012 when i discovered Bitcoin, at the time i purchased (january) the price was already 13.20$/BTC.

I was not sure to invest or not, at that outrageous price of (13$) that seemed a bubble to me.

You know what happended after that, boom to 266$!

Glad i buy some 500 cheap coins months back, i don't mind if they devalue to 30$ again  

115$ are cheap coins right now, and 500$ will be cheap in a few months, until Bitcoin discover his real price, i say at least 100,000$ each

People need to realize that 21 million coins (11 currently) is NOT a lot of coins and the more popular and the more people adopt bitcoins the higher the value will get and we should be thinking about mB instead of a whole bitcoin.
Just compared bitcoin to any shares from any company. 21 million is not a whole lot!
I'm surprised when people are expecting to see $40 again, but I guess those are the ones who missed the boat and now they are just in wishful thinking mode... I get it.
115 is a perfect price for right now and I can live with that. maybe in 6-8 months we'll see another big jump for now, 115-120 makes sense.
I used to have an exit strategy and I chose to go the trader way, now my exit strategy is simply to make money by trading while slowly increasing my coin stock as well and it's been paying off.

[Rampion]

If it does not go back down I will not buy in ... it just seems too risky for me at this price whatever anyone wants to say about fundamentals, future growth etc ... I just can't bring myself to do it. If I miss the opportunity to ride the train so be it ... worse things have already happened in my life.

This is pretty much exactly what I told my girlfriend when she finally asked why she wasn't getting hourly bitcoin updates anymore!

Though obviously, her eyes had glazed over before I finished the first sentence...

Maybe you just do not understand the potential.

Think about what people was saying about $10 coins in 2011, after the bubble to $32

Chooooo chooooo

 

[Coinseeker]

I'm actually quite fine with the price being stable around 115-120, now you can finally actually pay for things using Bitcoin without worrying about the price fluctuating so much. Yesterday I paid for the Humble Bundle using Bitcoin, then I bought coffee and now I was just about to re-new my server subscription and what do I see?

It's....it's beautiful! 

That's great ... you are actually spending your Bitcoins ... most people seem to only want to hold them til they reach the moon
And the 3% discount is great ... should probably cover all the slippage involved in buying Bitcoins in the first place

These obstacles need to be removed ...

Seems something like Ripple could really help Bitcoin.  It's easy to get into and you can trade XRPs for Bitcoins.  Lot's of kinks to work out in crypto...despite some pessimism...crypto is here to stay and I love the thoughts of the future.

[phoenix1]

If it does not go back down I will not buy in ... it just seems too risky for me at this price whatever anyone wants to say about fundamentals, future growth etc ... I just can't bring myself to do it. If I miss the opportunity to ride the train so be it ... worse things have already happened in my life.

This is pretty much exactly what I told my girlfriend when she finally asked why she wasn't getting hourly bitcoin updates anymore!

Though obviously, her eyes had glazed over before I finished the first sentence...

Lol ... you are lucky she's stuck around this long ...

Not now baby ... Bitcoins going crazy
No I can't wash the car ... I've got to watch the price
Damn missed it again ... you should have seen the price action
etc
etc

[fitty]

We were at $165 post crash.

So the biggest risk to the market is everyone who bought in at $200-$260, who are just waiting to dump everything and exit? So wait, they rode out the biggest BTC crash in history, wait 3 months, just to sell at a loss when the price is getting back up to where they bought in? That seems like poor financial planning.

They dump coins, leave the market, people buy them up, it's not really that big of a deal. It's been going on daily for the last 2 months.

That discounts everyone who bought in at $200-$260 and are sitting on huge losses right now.  I'd assume most are looking to bail out of this market as soon as possible but have no choice but to pray for some sort of increase to at least minimize the damage.  If we should see a spike back to $160-$180, I'd expect a flood of selling at the peak as people cut their losses and run for the hills.  Don't think I need to specify what happens to the markets next...

[Coinseeker]

Slightly contrarian, not trying to scare anyone, just giving the opinion of someone who is new to Bitcoin (about 6 weeks of exposure) and thinking about not jumping on board unless we go down significantly from here.

I was thinking the same of you on last december of 2012 when i discovered Bitcoin, at the time i purchased (january) the price was already 13.20$/BTC.

I was not sure to invest or not, at that outrageous price of (13$) that seemed a bubble to me.

You know what happended after that, boom to 266$!

Glad i buy some 500 cheap coins months back, i don't mind if they devalue to 30$ again  

115$ are cheap coins right now, and 500$ will be cheap in a few months, until Bitcoin discover his real price, i say at least 100,000$ each

People need to realize that 21 million coins (11 currently) is NOT a lot of coins and the more popular and the more people adopt bitcoins the higher the value will get and we should be thinking about mB instead of a whole bitcoin.
Just compared bitcoin to any shares from any company. 21 million is not a whole lot!
I'm surprised when people are expecting to see $40 again, but I guess those are the ones who missed the boat and now they are just in wishful thinking mode... I get it.
115 is a perfect price for right now and I can live with that. maybe in 6-8 months we'll see another big jump for now, 115-120 makes sense.
I used to have an exit strategy and I chose to go the trader way, now my exit strategy is simply to make money by trading while slowly increasing my coin stock as well and it's been paying off.

Wouldn't the markets have to make this transition in trading.  Kind of like a stock split to switch over to mBits or how would this work?  Oh and congrats on your continued success.

[Coinseeker]

We were at $165 post crash.

So the biggest risk to the market is everyone who bought in at $200-$260, who are just waiting to dump everything and exit? So wait, they rode out the biggest BTC crash in history, wait 3 months, just to sell at a loss when the price is getting back up to where they bought in? That seems like poor financial planning.

They dump coins, leave the market, people buy them up, it's not really that big of a deal. It's been going on daily for the last 2 months.

That discounts everyone who bought in at $200-$260 and are sitting on huge losses right now.  I'd assume most are looking to bail out of this market as soon as possible but have no choice but to pray for some sort of increase to at least minimize the damage.  If we should see a spike back to $160-$180, I'd expect a flood of selling at the peak as people cut their losses and run for the hills.  Don't think I need to specify what happens to the markets next...

I didn't say this was the biggest risk to the market, I said your comments don't take this into account.  No, it is not sound financial planning but I'd say those who bought in at $260, were not making a wise financial decision to begin with.  Unless of course they are planning to go long, which at this point in time, no one knows if it will be the greatest decision of all time or a flop.  But let's not pretend there isn't plenty of money that saw the huge rise and jumped in on pure greed, hoping to not miss the train and will look to cut their losses if they can.  That was my only point.

[ChartBuddy]

[oda.krell]

If it does not go back down I will not buy in ... it just seems too risky for me at this price whatever anyone wants to say about fundamentals, future growth etc ... I just can't bring myself to do it. If I miss the opportunity to ride the train so be it ... worse things have already happened in my life.

This is pretty much exactly what I told my girlfriend when she finally asked why she wasn't getting hourly bitcoin updates anymore!

Though obviously, her eyes had glazed over before I finished the first sentence...

Lol ... you are lucky she's stuck around this long ...

Not now baby ... Bitcoins going crazy
No I can't wash the car ... I've got to watch the price
Damn missed it again ... you should have seen the price action
etc
etc

Mine is actually interested. which is even worse:

me: [long-winded explanation that explains why I expect btc market cap to be at least as big as market cap of a company like Paypal in the medium term]

she: but from what you described, btc is a like a currency. then why do you compare it to the market cap of a  company, based on share price?

me: damn woman. why do you ask difficult questions? can't you just cheer me on?

[Coinseeker]

115$ are cheap coins right now, and 500$ will be cheap in a few months, until Bitcoin discover his real price, i say at least 100,000$ each

This is a statement made on emotion and not facts.  I agree with this:

Yes, you are right, it's an emotion As valid as TA aka self induced prophecies as i call they , at least for me 

In the end the only fact is never will be more than 21 millions.

Don't get me wrong, the potential is definatly there.  We all get that.  But ALOT has to go right and almost nothing can go majorly wrong for this to be true.  These are of course my opinions and I'll be PROUD to eat crow if $100k coins becomes a reality.

[dexX7]

I've seen all the $500, $1000 and even $300k coin statements.  I truly hope that happens for people but if that's the case, who are these people paying $500-$300k per coin?  Because I know who it's not going to be.   

As far as I understood this, your problem is the psychological barrier of "one unit for over 100 dollar", right? But does it really matter? I don't care if I get 1 BTC for 100 $ or only 1 for 1000 $, all that matters for me is the relative value and it's change: 20 % value gain is 20 % value gain, even if I pay 300k $ for "one unit", isn't it?

But I feel with you. I support that mBTC "movement".

[Coinseeker]

If it does not go back down I will not buy in ... it just seems too risky for me at this price whatever anyone wants to say about fundamentals, future growth etc ... I just can't bring myself to do it. If I miss the opportunity to ride the train so be it ... worse things have already happened in my life.

This is pretty much exactly what I told my girlfriend when she finally asked why she wasn't getting hourly bitcoin updates anymore!

Though obviously, her eyes had glazed over before I finished the first sentence...

Lol ... you are lucky she's stuck around this long ...

Not now baby ... Bitcoins going crazy
No I can't wash the car ... I've got to watch the price
Damn missed it again ... you should have seen the price action
etc
etc

Mine is actually interested. which is even worse:

me: [long-winded explanation that explains why I expect btc market cap to be at least as big as market cap of a company like Paypal in the medium term]

she: but from what you described, btc is a like a currency. then why do you compare it to the market cap of a  company, based on share price?

me: damn woman. why do you ask difficult questions? can't you just cheer me on?

   

It's funny, I worked pretty hard convincing the wife and as I've started to pull back a bit, the same conversations are happening.  I literally laughed out loud when I read your post.  Now the pressure is coming from her instead of the other way around.

[Odalv]

We were at $165 post crash.

So the biggest risk to the market is everyone who bought in at $200-$260, who are just waiting to dump everything and exit? So wait, they rode out the biggest BTC crash in history, wait 3 months, just to sell at a loss when the price is getting back up to where they bought in? That seems like poor financial planning.

They dump coins, leave the market, people buy them up, it's not really that big of a deal. It's been going on daily for the last 2 months.

That discounts everyone who bought in at $200-$260 and are sitting on huge losses right now.  I'd assume most are looking to bail out of this market as soon as possible but have no choice but to pray for some sort of increase to at least minimize the damage.  If we should see a spike back to $160-$180, I'd expect a flood of selling at the peak as people cut their losses and run for the hills.  Don't think I need to specify what happens to the markets next...

I didn't say this was the biggest risk to the market, I said your comments don't take this into account.  No, it is not sound financial planning but I'd say those who bought in at $260, were not making a wise financial decision to begin with.  Unless of course they are planning to go long, which at this point in time, no one knows if it will be the greatest decision of all time or a flop.  But let's not pretend there isn't plenty of money that saw the huge rise and jumped in on pure greed, hoping to not miss the train and will look to cut their losses if they can.  That was my only point.

Do not worry $260 are quite cheap coins.

[Coinseeker]

We were at $165 post crash.

So the biggest risk to the market is everyone who bought in at $200-$260, who are just waiting to dump everything and exit? So wait, they rode out the biggest BTC crash in history, wait 3 months, just to sell at a loss when the price is getting back up to where they bought in? That seems like poor financial planning.

They dump coins, leave the market, people buy them up, it's not really that big of a deal. It's been going on daily for the last 2 months.

That discounts everyone who bought in at $200-$260 and are sitting on huge losses right now.  I'd assume most are looking to bail out of this market as soon as possible but have no choice but to pray for some sort of increase to at least minimize the damage.  If we should see a spike back to $160-$180, I'd expect a flood of selling at the peak as people cut their losses and run for the hills.  Don't think I need to specify what happens to the markets next...

I didn't say this was the biggest risk to the market, I said your comments don't take this into account.  No, it is not sound financial planning but I'd say those who bought in at $260, were not making a wise financial decision to begin with.  Unless of course they are planning to go long, which at this point in time, no one knows if it will be the greatest decision of all time or a flop.  But let's not pretend there isn't plenty of money that saw the huge rise and jumped in on pure greed, hoping to not miss the train and will look to cut their losses if they can.  That was my only point.

Do not worry $260 are quite cheap coins.

I hope you're right because I see everyone here as early adopters and then there are the prehistoric adopters.     I don't want ANYONE to lose.  This whole convo is simply a glimpse of the sentiment of some not buying or waiting for lower prices.

[Odalv]

Do not worry $260 are quite cheap coins.

I hope you're right because I see everyone here as early adopters and then there are the prehistoric adopters.     I don't want ANYONE to lose.  This whole convo is simply a glimpse of the sentiment of some not buying or waiting for lower prices.

I'm sure. It is very hard to destroy Bitcoin. But it is easy to manipulate people.

[Coinseeker]

Do not worry $260 are quite cheap coins.

I hope you're right because I see everyone here as early adopters and then there are the prehistoric adopters.    I don't want ANYONE to lose.  This whole convo is simply a glimpse of the sentiment of some not buying or waiting for lower prices.

I'm sure. It is very hard to destroy Bitcoin. But it is easy to manipulate people.

Yeah well I have my doubts about the legitimate effect of bitcointalk forum posts on the markets.  But if that's how people are making their buying and selling decisions, I guess more power to em.  We're just off topic because we're bored.     I'm going to the beach...must..get...away!

[phoenix1]

  I don't want ANYONE to lose.  This whole convo is simply a glimpse of the sentiment of some not buying or waiting for lower prices.

Unfortunately I think that is the least likely outcome  
But yes, the convo is a bit of the other side of why some of us are not buying now. A lot of people have been speculating as to why some may or may not buy, and that we would all chase after the train if we rally from here. Been hearing a lot of that the last few days.

[Odalv]

  I don't want ANYONE to lose.  This whole convo is simply a glimpse of the sentiment of some not buying or waiting for lower prices.

Unfortunately I think that is the least likely outcome  
But yes, the convo is a bit of the other side of why some of us are not buying now. A lot of people have been speculating as to why some may or may not buy, and that we would all chase after the train if we rally from here. Been hearing a lot of that the last few days.

1. because big players created feeling of fear and pain by pumping and dumping.
2. they will collect cheap coins now. No one was willing to sell before :-)

[michaelGedi]

We were at $165 post crash.

So the biggest risk to the market is everyone who bought in at $200-$260, who are just waiting to dump everything and exit? So wait, they rode out the biggest BTC crash in history, wait 3 months, just to sell at a loss when the price is getting back up to where they bought in? That seems like poor financial planning.

They dump coins, leave the market, people buy them up, it's not really that big of a deal. It's been going on daily for the last 2 months.

That discounts everyone who bought in at $200-$260 and are sitting on huge losses right now.  I'd assume most are looking to bail out of this market as soon as possible but have no choice but to pray for some sort of increase to at least minimize the damage.  If we should see a spike back to $160-$180, I'd expect a flood of selling at the peak as people cut their losses and run for the hills.  Don't think I need to specify what happens to the markets next...

I didn't say this was the biggest risk to the market, I said your comments don't take this into account.  No, it is not sound financial planning but I'd say those who bought in at $260, were not making a wise financial decision to begin with.  Unless of course they are planning to go long, which at this point in time, no one knows if it will be the greatest decision of all time or a flop.  But let's not pretend there isn't plenty of money that saw the huge rise and jumped in on pure greed, hoping to not miss the train and will look to cut their losses if they can.  That was my only point.

Do not worry $260 are quite cheap coins.

I hope you're right because I see everyone here as early adopters and then there are the prehistoric adopters.    I don't want ANYONE to lose.  This whole convo is simply a glimpse of the sentiment of some not buying or waiting for lower prices.

CASE STUDY - I bought in at 235. Pure greed. Before I even understood what bicoin truely was.

stop loss sold on the way down, luckily played the bounce from about $77 - $159... lost money in Bitcoin-24 fiasco, lost some profit in continued crashes after the $165 high.

BUT I'm not about to leave the market now that I know what bitcoin is... it's not about leaving the market and cutting losses... as far as I'm concerned once you are in you are in, once you understand bitcoin you have no real reason to totally leave the market. It's too much of a mental investment as well as financial.

After a month of chart watching, following news and learning more and more about the past and potential future of bitcoin, I decided that trading is not for me, it's a small part of the game. I just took 1/3 of my (now 25% up) money out of Gox via coins to Bitstamp and hopefully fiat in my account next couple weeks. The rest is all in, for the mid/long term. If Bitcoin-24 resolves it's banking issues and the market continues to price bitcoin lower, I'll use that money to buy more coins lower (as many people definitely want to do).

To me, unless you really think it's worth day trading bitcoin in the long term (which is probably the case for many in this subforum I know), that's the sort of thing anyone who's recently got involved with Bitcoin should be doing, making an investment and holding onto it, allowing the next 6 months to take it's course now that the world is paying attention and the infrastructure truely starts to develop.

Personally I'm emotionally and physically exhausted from my bitcoin discovery but there is no way I'm leaving the market, and this price seems fair... even if it drops to $50 it will most likely go up again anyway (touch wood). Even if it's not legitimised and the regulatory grey area resolved in the next 6 months, I'm sure there will be some use for it in the long run. But given the strength of the community and it's word wide nature, bitcoin will not fade away and I think many people should recognise that after having invested the time to understand what they are investing money in.

EDIT - having read a couple more of the recent posts in this thread, yes, it may also crash and burn into nothing, but how many of you thought that in 2011? From the media spin and the investments going on at the moment, I don't think it really will. Perhaps Im just trying to convince myself this risky investment is worth it. If that is so, I've done a good job.


excuse the long fairly off topic post