Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[wachtwoord]

Even if you have a world changing invention, markets can remain blind to it for years.
Worse: the invention could simply be discarded and forgotten.

That's the only reason I'm not (nor will I ever be) all in.

Besides that, just be patient. It's one of the best qualities there is. Just ask Rick Guerin. (http://basehitinvesting.com/mohnish-pabrai-on-patience-advice-from-buffett-and-what-ever-happened-to-bill-guerin/ )

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[Hawker]

Guys do you mind taking the God stuff to another thread? 

Careful with those kind of sentiments Hawker

Last time I dared make such a suggestion when religion found its way onto the old wall thread I got asked if I lived in Communist China and accused of trying to suppress free speech!!

On the other hand there was so little going on I clicked 'Unignore' on Coinseeker's post only to find his is the most informative of the bunch!  Wonders never cease

lol you are right

[Frozenlock]

Even if you have a world changing invention, markets can remain blind to it for years.
Worse: the invention could simply be discarded and forgotten.

That's the only reason I'm not (nor will I ever be) all in.

Besides that, just be patient. It's one of the best qualities there is. Just ask Rick Guerin. (http://basehitinvesting.com/mohnish-pabrai-on-patience-advice-from-buffett-and-what-ever-happened-to-bill-guerin/ )

Oh I'm patient.

[Coinseeker]

Oh I'm patient.

Sense of humor is invaluable.  That's a really funny pic.  

[Frozenlock]

(...) gox volume for Saturday was 22k, Sunday 20k, both extremely low. However, weekend can be low. If Monday volume not nearer 60k then grab the worry beads.

[thoughtfan]

Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...

Don't try to time a Black Swan.

 

And if it drops 100$ in a day?

Even if you have a world changing invention, markets can remain blind to it for years.
Worse: the invention could simply be discarded and forgotten.

For example, the Greeks invented the steam engine, but we had to wait for thousands
of years before any of its potential was really used.
"Guys! Hold to it! It's world changing invention!" - A guy, 2000 years too soon.

I really wish Bitcoin will go up, but you guys remember me too much of how I was in 2009.
"How can it go down? It's the most important invention since fire!"
The market didn't care.

The more I see scareless permabulls like you, the more I fear for Bitcoin.  

What if it drops $1000 in a day? - oh but wait, it can't!, and though I really do get what crumbcake was getting at invoking Pascal's Wager it is a fact only one side has a limit to its movement in a day.

Again, in principle I see your parallel with inventions lying un-built and unused for millennia yet it takes some stretch of the imagination to put Bitcoin in this category.  I see it as closer to the steam train having been built and refined and tested and is now pulling a long mixed consist of goods and savers and speculators.  We may well have hit a bit of a hill that is a struggle for the engine at this stage of its development but there's a lot of momentum behind it and I doubt this will be its nemesis.  But even if it did fail to make the crest of the hill (or the next) its unmaking is by now impossible.  Whether it's Bitcoin or something else the cat is well and truly out of the bag.  There'll be no languishing for millenia for the idea and technology of stateless decentralised money.

And my last query is regarding fear of permabulls.  OK, I get it was at least partially in jest but my question is how can someone who, based on a decent understanding of the concept and its implications, is as convinced as Its About Sharing is be a threat to Bitcoin?  There's a hard core of believers in this technology who would ride the price down to one cent if that's what happened - providing the technology still does as it ought our net worth loss might smart but the hope in the idea would not be smothered.  Holders like that are surely very healthy for Bitcoin.

There is a danger that those looking for an excuse to believe Bitcoin is a get-rich-quick scheme will feed from such positive writings and we probably should be wary of their affect on the market as they alternate between buying without understanding what they're getting into and disillusioned selling when in disbelief they see price can go down too!  But that's not the fault of the permabulls.

[Richy_T]

Yes. This would be more meaningful if it just showed the delta.

I disagree. But I am open to being convinced by being shown an example.

[billington.mark]

Id quite happily be trading between mtgox\btc-e but there isnt a quick and easy way to move $ between the two... especially when your from the UK.
unless someone wants to enlighten me??

I've made a couple of successful trades via: Sell BTC on Ripple -> Fiat to BitStamp -> Buy BTC at Bitstamp.  Rinse and repeat.  Fiat transfer was super quick too.

BUT..there is almost no liquidity in Ripple, so selling at near MtGox prices is difficult and took most of the day just to pull off 2 trades that were worth the effort.  The good news is I really only paid a fee at Bitstamp so the potential is there and I could sell a bit lower but, just not enough trades happening from Ripple to really take advantage yet.

Thanks for the reply

[Frozenlock]

I miss...

[crumbcake]

What if it drops $1000 in a day? - oh but wait, it can't!, and though I really do get what crumbcake was getting at invoking Pascal's Wager it is a fact only one side has a limit to its movement in a day.

But the price doesn't have to fall $1000 in a day.  The price can half as often as it can double.  Here's a neat puzzle for you:

1.  You're given a sealed envelope, and are told (truthfully) that it contains $100.
2.  The man who gave you the envelope presents two other, identical looking envelopes.  He informs you that one of the envelopes contains exactly $50 (half of the money you hold), and the other $200 (double the money you hold).  
3  He offers you a chance to swap your envelope for one of the two presented envelopes.  
4.  Seems like it's in your best interest to swap, since if you choose badly (the $50 envelope), you only lose $50 (you had $100 before the swap).  If you choose well (the $200 envelope), you win $100.  Odds of you choosing the $200 envelope are 50/50, while you could win double of what you could lose.

See the problem?  Or did i misinterpret what you were trying to say?

[Its About Sharing]

Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...

Don't try to time a Black Swan.

 

And if it drops 100$ in a day?

Even if you have a world changing invention, markets can remain blind to it for years.
Worse: the invention could simply be discarded and forgotten.

For example, the Greeks invented the steam engine, but we had to wait for thousands
of years before any of its potential was really used.
"Guys! Hold to it! It's world changing invention!" - A guy, 2000 years too soon.

I really wish Bitcoin will go up, but you guys remember me too much of how I was in 2009.
"How can it go down? It's the most important invention since fire!"
The market didn't care.

The more I see scareless permabulls like you, the more I fear for Bitcoin.  

If it drops $100 in a day then you should buy some more, no? It depends on the reason. But complications aside...

My point, and I think it was made clear, but I'll type slower for you:
If you are going to wait on the sidelines for it to drop and it doesn't but instead goes up $100 in a day, you will be holding cash. Your choice.

That is my simple point. But, my bigger point is that this isn't an investment. It is a statement. I am making my statement now. I am not an investor, this is about trying to create a better place, getting us away from central banking. If you want to see it purely as money making, well, you create your own reality. We all need to be careful in that regards to be honest.

IAS

[Its About Sharing]

What if it drops $1000 in a day? - oh but wait, it can't!, and though I really do get what crumbcake was getting at invoking Pascal's Wager it is a fact only one side has a limit to its movement in a day.

But the price doesn't have to fall $1000 in a day.  The price can half as often as it can double.  Here's a neat puzzle for you:

1.  You're given a sealed envelope, and are told (truthfully) that it contains $100.
2.  The man who gave you the envelope presents two other, identical looking envelopes.  He informs you that one of the envelopes contains exactly $50 (half of the money you hold), and the other $200 (double the money you hold).  
3  He offers you a chance to swap your envelope for one of the two presented envelopes.  
4.  Seems like it's in your best interest to swap, since if you choose badly (the $50 envelope), you only lose $50 (you had $100 before the swap).  If you choose well (the $200 envelope), you win $100.  Odds of you choosing the $200 envelope are 50/50, while you could win double of what you could lose.

See the problem?  Or did i misinterpret what you were trying to say?

Your complicating something quite simple by talking in analogies, which in this case is really missing the point.

Do you believe in BTC? If not then don't partake. Is it an investment? Then find your entry point. Really quite simple.

As I said above, I believe in what it means and what it stands for. Nothing complicated, no TA needed, just looking at the world and what bankers are doing to it is enough for me to make my "donation" to a better cause. We will be in this together anyway.

It's about sharing

[MickeyT2008]

Now, if it jumps up $100 or $200 in a day, your going to be there sitting in cash. Moral...

Don't try to time a Black Swan.

 

And if it drops 100$ in a day?

Even if you have a world changing invention, markets can remain blind to it for years.
Worse: the invention could simply be discarded and forgotten.

For example, the Greeks invented the steam engine, but we had to wait for thousands
of years before any of its potential was really used.
"Guys! Hold to it! It's world changing invention!" - A guy, 2000 years too soon.

I really wish Bitcoin will go up, but you guys remember me too much of how I was in 2009.
"How can it go down? It's the most important invention since fire!"
The market didn't care.

The more I see scareless permabulls like you, the more I fear for Bitcoin.  

What if it drops $1000 in a day? - oh but wait, it can't!, and though I really do get what crumbcake was getting at invoking Pascal's Wager it is a fact only one side has a limit to its movement in a day.

Again, in principle I see your parallel with inventions lying un-built and unused for millennia yet it takes some stretch of the imagination to put Bitcoin in this category.  I see it as closer to the steam train having been built and refined and tested and is now pulling a long mixed consist of goods and savers and speculators.  We may well have hit a bit of a hill that is a struggle for the engine at this stage of its development but there's a lot of momentum behind it and I doubt this will be its nemesis.  But even if it did fail to make the crest of the hill (or the next) its unmaking is by now impossible.  Whether it's Bitcoin or something else the cat is well and truly out of the bag.  There'll be no languishing for millenia for the idea and technology of stateless decentralised money.

And my last query is regarding fear of permabulls.  OK, I get it was at least partially in jest but my question is how can someone who, based on a decent understanding of the concept and its implications, is as convinced as Its About Sharing is be a threat to Bitcoin?  There's a hard core of believers in this technology who would ride the price down to one cent if that's what happened - providing the technology still does as it ought our net worth loss might smart but the hope in the idea would not be smothered.  Holders like that are surely very healthy for Bitcoin.

There is a danger that those looking for an excuse to believe Bitcoin is a get-rich-quick scheme will feed from such positive writings and we probably should be wary of their affect on the market as they alternate between buying without understanding what they're getting into and disillusioned selling when in disbelief they see price can go down too!  But that's not the fault of the permabulls.

For bitcoin to really go up it needs normal people to regularly see things offered for sale in BTC, such as when they're shopping on Amazon or their local supermarket website, or even in the supermarket itself.  It also needs to be as easy to buy things with as normal money, or at least as easy as paying with a debit card.  Bitcoin conferences may be a good thing but the existence of bitcoins isn't news to those who attend them, even now if you stop people in the street and ask what they know of bitcoins most will say they've never heard of them.  If the average Joe had £20 worth of bitcoins that'd be a huge increase in the amount of fiat invested in BTC.

[ChartBuddy]

[crumbcake]

What if it drops $1000 in a day? - oh but wait, it can't!, and though I really do get what crumbcake was getting at invoking Pascal's Wager it is a fact only one side has a limit to its movement in a day.

But the price doesn't have to fall $1000 in a day.  The price can half as often as it can double.  Here's a neat puzzle for you:

1.  You're given a sealed envelope, and are told (truthfully) that it contains $100.
2.  The man who gave you the envelope presents two other, identical looking envelopes.  He informs you that one of the envelopes contains exactly $50 (half of the money you hold), and the other $200 (double the money you hold).  
3  He offers you a chance to swap your envelope for one of the two presented envelopes.  
4.  Seems like it's in your best interest to swap, since if you choose badly (the $50 envelope), you only lose $50 (you had $100 before the swap).  If you choose well (the $200 envelope), you win $100.  Odds of you choosing the $200 envelope are 50/50, while you could win double of what you could lose.

See the problem?  Or did i misinterpret what you were trying to say?

Your complicating something quite simple by talking in analogies, which in this case is really missing the point.

Do you believe in BTC? If not then don't partake. Is it an investment? Then find your entry point. Really quite simple.

As I said above, I believe in what it means and what it stands for. Nothing complicated, no TA needed, just looking at the world and what bankers are doing to it is enough for me to make my "donation" to a better cause. We will be in this together anyway.

It's about sharing

I'm not sure how ideology manages to creep into a speculation forum  In particular, the Wall Movement thread  As i understand it, I don't have to buy into an ideology to trade in Bitcoin.  If you feel that trading Bitcoin must be propped up with calls to "donate to a cause," that sort-a spooks me from buyin'.

Edit:  Why should it matter if I believe in BTC as long as i think there's money to be made?  If i buy in -- good for you & Bitcoin.  If I stay out -- more Bitcoinz left for you?  Seems like a win/win?

[Abandon]

What bitcoin really needs is ease of acquirement and use. It doesn't even need to be used like a currency, it would do just fine as a store of wealth. Granted, it will be used as a currency, at least for some things.

The only potentially fatal danger crypto-currencies face, is for there to be a much better form of currency, that surpasses any merits of existing crypto-currencies in every way.

[Coinseeker]

I'm not sure how ideology manages to creep into a speculation forum   In particular, the Wall Movement thread   As i understand it, I don't have to buy into an ideology to trade in Bitcoin.  If you feel that trading Bitcoin must be propped up with calls to "donate to a cause," that sort-a spooks me from buyin'.

Edit:  Why should it matter if I believe in BTC as long as i think there's money to be made?  If i buy in -- good for you & Bitcoin.  If I stay out -- more Bitcoinz left for you?  Seems like a win/win?

Don't let it spook you.  Ideology is irrelevant to Bitcoin.  The more widespread Bitcoin becomes, the more of a minority the ideological types will be.  Just as they are in the real world. It's the natural order of things.  

/flame away  

[ElectricMucus]

Just wanting to say in case of the $100 envelope which you can swap for a $200 or $50 one - statistically you should swap since the average amount would be $125. If they however contain $50 and $150 it becomes statistically irrelevant.

[crumbcake]

Just wanting to say in case of the $100 envelope which you can swap for a $200 or $50 one - statistically you should swap since the average amount would be $125. If they however contain $50 and $150 it becomes statistically irrelevant.

And if you're offered a choice to swap again?  Swap/not swap -- same deal as above?

[Ultraviolet]

All the anti-establishment types will hate their life when Bitcoin truly becomes mainstream because then it will be governed by law and traded by banks and investment firms while it lives harmoniously alongside national fiats. Heck, it'll probably be traded on Forex.

Bitcoin replacing fiat is at least one generation away. Furthermore, if it does replace fiat it will just be the new fiat unless the powers-that-be are replaced by people with some moral integrity and beliefs in governing a country for future generations, which has approximately 0% chance of happening at the present time.

Once cryptos really become big they'll either have to come in line with society's realities or they'll be sieged relentlessly and then you can forget about widespread adoption in less than a 20 year time frame.