Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rampion]

This kind of volume is just the buying/selling from Bitcoin transactions.

BitPay accepts Bitcoins for businesses, turns around and sends them the USD/EUR/ETC... For the most part they sell those coins right away (or risk losing money). I'd think it would be too risky to hold coins, the market goes the wrong way they could lose their ass. They need constant fiat to be sending back out to the businesses accepting Bitcoins.

Regardless, there's lots of these places that need to buy/sell constantly during the day. At this kind of volume, it's just Bitcoin transactions. It's hard to read much more into it at this point.

We've had some pretty violent corrections, people who really wanted to get out, have gotten out. People who really wanted it, have gotten in. Lots of people waiting for a drop to get back in. Lots of new people waiting to see if this price holds before buying. I sense a lot of "wait and see" right now in the market. MtGox hasn't even discusses the DHS issue. It looks like we're primed for an uptrend, but it's probably not going to be the rallies we've been used to seeing.

Of course if a few whales decide to drop 5-10M buying up coins all bets go out the window. But right now no one is in a rush to sell, no one is in a rush to buy. Ahhh stability.

What you say is theoretically correct, but in practice I think you are overestimating a bit the volume of Bitcoin business transactions. Check Bitpays recent history: during their best month they managed $5.2M transactions in Bitcoin... And those where 99% buys from Avalon batch #3, which was sold through them. IMO this means that the rest of business transactions in Bitcoins is a peanut, I would be very surprised to discover that Bitpay accounts for more than 5% of the daily volume we had during the last days.

In fact, I bet that Silk Road merchants generate more volume in exchanges than Bitpay (if you take out the spikes in orders to BFL/Avalon).

[N12]

This reflects my experience.

There is no such thing as a "Bitcoin economy".

[Its About Sharing]

So if I understand correctly, the volume is even more abyssal than we think? 

Wouldn't services like Bitpay use some darkpools?

It is certainly interesting. I think since BTC isn't only a stock/currency/protocol/technology/commodity/etc. we might be witnessing something oddly new - just a balancing, so to speak of current demand coupled with a bit of uncertainty. I'm sure there is lots of money on the side waiting for BTC to jump up (and then they will ride that wave) or waiting for BTC to crash (and then they will try to pick-up "cheap" BTC's).

Looking at all the incredible topics at the conference (via the articles on the bitcoinchannel.com) I'm really struck by something:

This isn't just about BTC. We are entering a technological/protocol of an era that is game changing. AND very little of it is about making money with BTC. It is about:

decentralizing DNS
creating decentralized means of voting
tracking or "ledging" stock transactions/ownership (and government, etc.!)
decentralized electronic markets
more cryptocurrencies
decentralized exchanges

TONS of decentralized services - every governments worst nightmare, but inevitable. 
(The cat is out of the bag and the bag is no where to be found.)
And of note here, the only real "coming down" on us by the government has been to follow FinCen regulations... UM OK!

And just from an "end user" perspective (ha ha), what this amounts to is anybodies guess, but it sends chills down my spine more and more the deeper I get into it.

I pulled some of the ideas above from this article, really a brilliant and mind opening read. http://reason.com/archives/2013/05/20/the-top-3-things-i-learned-at-the-bitcoi
This Black Swan is really a Black Swan within a Black Swan (and all participants are anti-fragile) - see my sig for definition clarification

Got off tangent there, welcome to BTC

[niothor]

This kind of volume is just the buying/selling from Bitcoin transactions.

BitPay accepts Bitcoins for businesses, turns around and sends them the USD/EUR/ETC... For the most part they sell those coins right away (or risk losing money). I'd think it would be too risky to hold coins, the market goes the wrong way they could lose their ass. They need constant fiat to be sending back out to the businesses accepting Bitcoins.

Regardless, there's lots of these places that need to buy/sell constantly during the day. At this kind of volume, it's just Bitcoin transactions. It's hard to read much more into it at this point.

We've had some pretty violent corrections, people who really wanted to get out, have gotten out. People who really wanted it, have gotten in. Lots of people waiting for a drop to get back in. Lots of new people waiting to see if this price holds before buying. I sense a lot of "wait and see" right now in the market. MtGox hasn't even discusses the DHS issue. It looks like we're primed for an uptrend, but it's probably not going to be the rallies we've been used to seeing.

Of course if a few whales decide to drop 5-10M buying up coins all bets go out the window. But right now no one is in a rush to sell, no one is in a rush to buy. Ahhh stability.

What you say is theoretically correct, but in practice I think you are overestimating a bit the volume of Bitcoin business transactions. Check Bitpays recent history: during their best month they managed $5.2M transactions in Bitcoin... And those where 99% buys from Avalon batch #3, which was sold through them. IMO this means that the rest of business transactions in Bitcoins is a peanut, I would be very surprised to discover that Bitpay accounts for more than 5% of the daily volume we had during the last days.

In fact, I bet that Silk Road merchants generate more volume in exchanges than Bitpay (if you take out the spikes in orders to BFL/Avalon).

+1

But not the merchants , the buyers .
Most of the merchants hold down to how much they can , waiting for a new spike , just like anyone else.

[Coinseeker]

This kind of volume is just the buying/selling from Bitcoin transactions.

BitPay accepts Bitcoins for businesses, turns around and sends them the USD/EUR/ETC... For the most part they sell those coins right away (or risk losing money). I'd think it would be too risky to hold coins, the market goes the wrong way they could lose their ass. They need constant fiat to be sending back out to the businesses accepting Bitcoins.

Regardless, there's lots of these places that need to buy/sell constantly during the day. At this kind of volume, it's just Bitcoin transactions. It's hard to read much more into it at this point.

We've had some pretty violent corrections, people who really wanted to get out, have gotten out. People who really wanted it, have gotten in. Lots of people waiting for a drop to get back in. Lots of new people waiting to see if this price holds before buying. I sense a lot of "wait and see" right now in the market. MtGox hasn't even discusses the DHS issue. It looks like we're primed for an uptrend, but it's probably not going to be the rallies we've been used to seeing.

Of course if a few whales decide to drop 5-10M buying up coins all bets go out the window. But right now no one is in a rush to sell, no one is in a rush to buy. Ahhh stability.

Very good point.  Didn't think of that.

Who are you and what happened to Coinseeker? Seriously, did you go to FUD rehabilitation or what?
Welcome, whoever you are  

    I honestly just don't see anything negative ATM, other than low volume. That's not necessarily bad for Bitcoin though. The huge ask wall at Bitstamp is concerning but not sure what to make of it.  There seems to be confidence out there, lots of good news and no real bad news that I can find.  And I looked hard too.  

While I think it's a coin flip at this point, if I had to bet, I'd stick with prices going up based on what I see.  That could obviously change.  

[Frozenlock]

Coinseeker bullish...

Who's left to buy coins then? 

[Its About Sharing]

This kind of volume is just the buying/selling from Bitcoin transactions.

BitPay accepts Bitcoins for businesses, turns around and sends them the USD/EUR/ETC... For the most part they sell those coins right away (or risk losing money). I'd think it would be too risky to hold coins, the market goes the wrong way they could lose their ass. They need constant fiat to be sending back out to the businesses accepting Bitcoins.

Regardless, there's lots of these places that need to buy/sell constantly during the day. At this kind of volume, it's just Bitcoin transactions. It's hard to read much more into it at this point.

We've had some pretty violent corrections, people who really wanted to get out, have gotten out. People who really wanted it, have gotten in. Lots of people waiting for a drop to get back in. Lots of new people waiting to see if this price holds before buying. I sense a lot of "wait and see" right now in the market. MtGox hasn't even discusses the DHS issue. It looks like we're primed for an uptrend, but it's probably not going to be the rallies we've been used to seeing.

Of course if a few whales decide to drop 5-10M buying up coins all bets go out the window. But right now no one is in a rush to sell, no one is in a rush to buy. Ahhh stability.

Very good point.  Didn't think of that.

Who are you and what happened to Coinseeker? Seriously, did you go to FUD rehabilitation or what?
Welcome, whoever you are  

    I honestly just don't see anything negative ATM, other than low volume. That's not necessarily bad for Bitcoin though. The huge ask wall at Bitstamp is concerning but not sure what to make of it.  There seems to be confidence out there, lots of good news and no real bad news that I can find.  And I looked hard too.  

While I think it's a coin flip at this point, if I had to bet, I'd stick with prices going up based on what I see.  That could obviously change.  

So, just a few days ago you had nothing good to say, really. What that you have observed has changed this?

[Coinseeker]

This kind of volume is just the buying/selling from Bitcoin transactions.

BitPay accepts Bitcoins for businesses, turns around and sends them the USD/EUR/ETC... For the most part they sell those coins right away (or risk losing money). I'd think it would be too risky to hold coins, the market goes the wrong way they could lose their ass. They need constant fiat to be sending back out to the businesses accepting Bitcoins.

Regardless, there's lots of these places that need to buy/sell constantly during the day. At this kind of volume, it's just Bitcoin transactions. It's hard to read much more into it at this point.

We've had some pretty violent corrections, people who really wanted to get out, have gotten out. People who really wanted it, have gotten in. Lots of people waiting for a drop to get back in. Lots of new people waiting to see if this price holds before buying. I sense a lot of "wait and see" right now in the market. MtGox hasn't even discusses the DHS issue. It looks like we're primed for an uptrend, but it's probably not going to be the rallies we've been used to seeing.

Of course if a few whales decide to drop 5-10M buying up coins all bets go out the window. But right now no one is in a rush to sell, no one is in a rush to buy. Ahhh stability.

Very good point.  Didn't think of that.

Who are you and what happened to Coinseeker? Seriously, did you go to FUD rehabilitation or what?
Welcome, whoever you are  

    I honestly just don't see anything negative ATM, other than low volume. That's not necessarily bad for Bitcoin though. The huge ask wall at Bitstamp is concerning but not sure what to make of it.  There seems to be confidence out there, lots of good news and no real bad news that I can find.  And I looked hard too.  

While I think it's a coin flip at this point, if I had to bet, I'd stick with prices going up based on what I see.  That could obviously change.  

So, just a few days ago you had nothing good to say, really. What that you have observed has changed this?

If you notice, last week when people where screaming "rally", I said clearly it wasn't because I just didn't see any real momentum to push through and I was right.

Now, I look at this huge ask wall at Bitstamp and everyone seems confident.  There's no desperation to sell and people are holding their positions.  Add to that, nothing but good media coming out of the US, Canada (While apparently confused on what the law says) is backtracking from it's previous position against the banks.  DHS at least is pretending to only be focused on FinCEN violations, although I'm not convinced this is the end of it. But all in all, things are quite.  

That's either a really good sign of Bitcoin's continued resilience or a scary sign of rough times ahead.  Like I said, to me it's a coin flip but there's more positive than negative right now, from what I see.  That would lead me to believe we're going to see at least a small upswing, possibly as high as 130 sometime this week.  

That's my weekly prediction.    

[Rampion]

Coinseeker is long, bearish sign,  sell sell sell!

[Abandon]

ETA 8 hours, until likely break out at $122. .

[Coinseeker]

[ChartBuddy]

[bitcodo]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNLhxKpfCnA

[Frozenlock]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A7TuFy0fcuw

[ChartBuddy]

[dexX7]

Market sentiment!

[Zephir]

The Ask Wall is getting higher and higher on bitstamp today !  

[meh32123]

The Ask Wall is getting higher and higher on bitstamp today !  

Look at the BTC-E Bid Wall:

[wonkytonky]

The Ask Wall is getting higher and higher on bitstamp today !  

thats good news.. just got verified there (1day, now thats FAST)..   
sepa on the way.. keep them walls up there please..   

[Its About Sharing]

The Ask Wall is getting higher and higher on bitstamp today !  

Yeah it is! Really interesting. Why so many offers to sell above the current price?
Scare tactic or real?

And yet it is stable.