Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

[NamLaLai]

Little present/upgrade for ChartBuddy, because he just keeps doing his job, never complaining...

https://i.imgur.com/3zqcD7D.png

.png format, no background, personalized, 400 x 200 pixels

[Kazu]

Little present/upgrade for ChartBuddy, because he just keeps doing his job, never complaining...



.png format, no background, personalized, 400 x 200 pixels

Better send him a personal message, his chart posting is automated. You're post might get lost in the flood of speculation.

[Its About Sharing]

LibertyReserve going out of business is part of it also.  These LR users have to go somewhere. Bitcoin is the best option.

People might be pricing that into the market. But if you lost money at LR, you probably have cash flow problems, probably not going to be buying BTC this second, more likely to be selling any BTC you have. Now if you have money you'd usually send to LR but now are going to send it to Gox, that won't happen for a few days.

I don't think any of this rally is directly from people affected by LR, but I do agree we will be seeing more money flowing through BTC in the next few weeks/months because of it.

To me, this rally seems like "3 weeks of stability - okay this BTC shit might actually be legit - lets buy some coins". Mixed in with a whole bunch of Bears who waited for cheap coins, couldn't get them, have accepted the fact they need to pay more to buy back in, and have bought back in. So to me, it's bump from weeks of stability and Bears who got left behind (and maybe the 10s of millions of new VC money we got in May).

EDIT: On a side note, has anyone else ever seen a stretch this long where there are almost no fake ask walls? No walls popping up on the edge, no big walls getting pulled right before the bulls arrive, the last 3 weeks pretty much every big wall has been eaten. I can't even remember the last time I saw an ask wall trying to cock block a rally. Checking the old wall thread, you can't go a single page without someone mentioning a fake wall moving around. This thread? Maybe every 10 pages it gets a mention.

I think Liberty Reserve is a factor but more a psychological one. I'm not sure we are seeing lots of LR users move into BTC, yeah some sure. But many people are seeing another "funding" mechanism closed down and there are fewer standing choices now. It is sort of like we are seeing our standing power. Really, doesn't at all seem like the government is after us. The best they could do thus far is to say, follow FinCen regulations and they shut a Dwolla funding source. (Most likely this will result in a fine and nothing more as it doesn't appear nefarious.)

I remember those "fake" ask walls, then I remember many of them getting eaten into or just plain eaten. We stopped seeing them. 

[miningnew]

could someone explain how to read the posts of chartbuddy?

[ChartBuddy]

[dnaleor]

Based on Tony Coleby's chart, this is what I predict for the coming weeks:

(I drew the green, red and gray lines at the end)

[dexX7]

Quick update from Bitstamp. 130 is done.

[Coinseeker]

Quick update from Bitstamp. 130 is done.

Yeah but, 131 is ~1800 coins away.  Fundamentally, nothing has really changed.

[dexX7]

Yeah but, 131 is ~1800 coins away.  Fundamentally, nothing has really changed.

Yup, true. But slowly up we go... after leaving 131 behind, it should move veery fast.

[Coinseeker]

What's up bulls?    Nothing really stopping you from running up to 137, what's the deal?  I figured with all the bullish talk, you'd be selling your houses trailers by now.  

I kid, I kid.  

[wonkytonky]

if it only was easy to get gox $ out with sepa and move it to bitstamp..  it would be a done deal already..  clearing that 2k wall. 

[oroboras]

Is it me, or is someone's bot getting over excited about 0.01btc?

[wonkytonky]

Yeah but, 131 is ~1800 coins away.  Fundamentally, nothing has really changed.

Yup, true. But slowly up we go... after leaving 131 behind, it should move veery fast.

at current rate i think the wall is eaten in 2 or 3 days..  there's also a +1k short  @ bitfinex that at some point will close its position so it can go faster then we think.

[Kazu]

Based on Tony Coleby's chart, this is what I predict for the coming weeks:

(I drew the green, red and gray lines at the end)

I agree, but you seem to forget that we always overshoot. It will probably hit like $200, crash down to about $150, and then slowly converge. In other words, I like the shape of your graph, I just think the zig-zags are smaller than they will actually be.

[Ultraviolet]

at current rate i think the wall is eaten in 2 or 3 days..  there's also a +1k short  @ bitfinex that at some point will close its position so it can go faster then we think.

Speaking of BFX, you can tell how long everyone is from how ridiculous the P2P interest rates on USD loans are. Leveraging $1,000 is more expensive (99%) than the variable interest rate (78%), which had an extra ~$90k available in it yesterday. When the price was ~115 you could leverage like 10k for ~25-30%.

Will be a real calamity if someone dumps the price back to $105.

[Coinseeker]

Yeah but, 131 is ~1800 coins away.  Fundamentally, nothing has really changed.

Yup, true. But slowly up we go... after leaving 131 behind, it should move veery fast.

Oh yeah, there is nothing stopping it after that.  I've just learned to be a little more patient with BitStamp.  You see how long it took to break through 130, right?  

Additionally, it would seem to me there is alot of continued upward push.  As bearish as I like to be, I still see nothing but "open road" ahead.  Obviously one whale could send this whole thing crashing but as it stands, this looks to have some continued power behind it. 

[dexX7]

at current rate i think the wall is eaten in 2 or 3 days..  there's also a +1k short  @ bitfinex that at some point will close its position so it can go faster then we think.

I didn't know that. Mind to tell, where I can find such information?

[ChartBuddy]

[Its About Sharing]

Yeah but, 131 is ~1800 coins away.  Fundamentally, nothing has really changed.

Yup, true. But slowly up we go... after leaving 131 behind, it should move veery fast.

Oh yeah, there is nothing stopping it after that.  I've just learned to be a little more patient with BitStamp.  You see how long it took to break through 130, right?  

Additionally, it would seem to me there is alot of continued upward push.  As bearish as I like to be, I still see nothing but "open road" ahead.  Obviously one whale could send this whole thing crashing but as it stands, this looks to have some continued power behind it. 

We are in an interesting phase of price discovery. Clearly a lot of coins are disappearing due to being put in a "savings account" and at the same time we are seeing more coins being used for donations, daily purchases, etc. I wonder how much the price will go up just based on more adoption via actual daily usage??? Really, that is an interesting question as Bitpay and the like are going to be doing the instant conversions so will be creating liquidity at the exchanges.

 As the price moves up (and at times violently) we are going to see people call tops and sell. Eventually, I imagine there will be a reasonable distribution, but the early adopters will always hold a portion as they believe in the greater purpose. They will further most likely re-"invest" in Bitcoin in a variety of ways - e.g., legal fund, VC, etc.

Just considering the current float of 11 million or so and the fact that the actual float is probably less than half that, I really would not be shocked at any price this year between what we are at currently and even $1000. I don't care so much about the price, but it is still a very interesting thing to consider as we are still trying to understand what this is...