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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21336024 times)
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Frozenlock
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May 29, 2013, 04:55:45 PM
 #11721

Well at least we have a more even spread between bulls and bears now. I always feel uncomfortable when everyone here seems to be bullish on the short term, it makes me want to sell my coins. Grin

I see bears! Buy buy buy!  Cheesy
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May 29, 2013, 04:58:11 PM
 #11722

The problem is there's not any real bullish momentum in the market. The market moves up when someone with 7 figures decides to push it up. It's not moving up as a real result of supply < demand. If you watch the order book for 10 minutes you'll see how much of the already stagnant volume is only coming from market maker bots. The price wouldn't even be above 120 right now if it weren't for the aforementioned phenomena.

However, the price isn't going to go down until the same small pool of players with deep pockets decide to dump.

But it's been this way almost all month, so what can you do.
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May 29, 2013, 04:59:43 PM
 #11723

There is no reason for the sudden and dramatic rise in volume. Insider trading? My bet is that some traders have become aware of impending negative news regarding gox and want coins off the exchange. We've been on the edge since the Dwolla incident.

Or, insiders getting their money out of liberty reserve and converting into Bitcoin just in time.
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May 29, 2013, 05:01:08 PM
 #11724

There is no reason for the sudden and dramatic rise in volume. Insider trading? My bet is that some traders have become aware of impending negative news regarding gox and want coins off the exchange. We've been on the edge since the Dwolla incident.

Is this some kind of advanced reverse psychology that you are speaking?  Cheesy
There was just a conference with lots of VC's there. So, some traders know of impending negative news and so are somehow driving the price up and risking lots of $$$ in the meantime?
You should write children's stories...  Grin

Come on, you can come up with something more factual that that. How about the Japanese stock market COLLAPSED by 12% yesterday and that is a sign that Quantitative Easing (aka planned hyperinflation) doesn't work.

Looks like I may have been right though...
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May 29, 2013, 05:02:22 PM
 #11725

molecular
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May 29, 2013, 05:22:02 PM
 #11726

The only people that need to transmit money anonymously, are criminals and tax evaders.

No. Everybody should be able to do that just as everybody should to be able to communicate with others in privacy.
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May 29, 2013, 05:24:12 PM
 #11727


What I know is the US dollar is by far the most popular black market currency.  Again, maybe in bizzaro world, it's bitcoin but here on Earth, the US dollar is king.  Bitcoin...ummm....what's a Bitcoin?   Roll Eyes

The present will be the past in the future. Get used to it.
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May 29, 2013, 05:32:25 PM
 #11728

Maybe you have some trouble to grasp the concept of very scarce a non-inflatable currency.
Yeah, and perhaps onecoin truly is the most expensive coin ever.  Roll Eyes

Scarcity principle doesn't apply without the proper demand.

There will be proper demand of Bitcoin regardless of it being legal or illegal in the US, I can guarantee you that.

See, this what you continue to repeat (and imply), but you have not proven it at all.

"Growth potential" as you called it ≠ the guarantee of massive demand in the future.

And the "hard math" based on difficulty -- no possibility that bitcoin simply becomes unprofitable to mine?

But if you argue adoption you are essentially arguing that companies of all sizes, as well as people, don't want to save lots of money. I just don't see that being a possibility here.
BTC can and will save lots of money to everyone involved. That is why it will succeed. I wouldn't worry to much about thinking "Will people use it?". They will be enticed to use it
in a variety of ways. Look at the Bitcoin store that offers electronics at prices lower than Amazon. What does that make Amazon think? Other retailers?

Our worry is governments/banks pretending to be regulators. That is why we must play our hand right and not blindly say "yes" to anything that gives us acceptance. We are in a position of power as the current system looks like it might be failing...
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May 29, 2013, 05:35:20 PM
 #11729

There is no reason for the sudden and dramatic rise in volume. Insider trading? My bet is that some traders have become aware of impending negative news regarding gox and want coins off the exchange. We've been on the edge since the Dwolla incident.

Is this some kind of advanced reverse psychology that you are speaking?  Cheesy
There was just a conference with lots of VC's there. So, some traders know of impending negative news and so are somehow driving the price up and risking lots of $$$ in the meantime?
You should write children's stories...  Grin

Come on, you can come up with something more factual that that. How about the Japanese stock market COLLAPSED by 12% yesterday and that is a sign that Quantitative Easing (aka planned hyperinflation) doesn't work.

Looks like I may have been right though...

Don't confuse being right via guessing, with being right for the correct reasons. eheheh

I think things are a bit more complicated than any of us can understand to be honest.
Sit back and enjoy the ride, however slow or volatile it may be...
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May 29, 2013, 05:37:04 PM
 #11730

Is there a way to see how many BTCs are short or long on bitfinex?
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May 29, 2013, 05:47:31 PM
 #11731

Is there a way to see how many BTCs are short or long on bitfinex?

No, but you can discern a bit from the interest rates and sum available for loan. During the 110-115 stagnation there were tens of thousands of dollars in fiat sub 40%. Before Monday's dump the only decent interest rate was the variable interest rate (69%). You can also tell from how many people are trying to set limit orders for borrows.

Borrowing BTC to short has been really cheap in the last 3 weeks. At one point you could borrow like 400B for 2%.
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May 29, 2013, 05:47:53 PM
 #11732

1337 BTC buy order @ $128. Funny guy is funny  Cheesy
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May 29, 2013, 05:52:50 PM
 #11733

Is there a way to see how many BTCs are short or long on bitfinex?

No, but you can discern a bit from the interest rates and sum available for loan. During the 110-115 stagnation there were tens of thousands of dollars in fiat sub 40%. Before Monday's dump the only decent interest rate was the variable interest rate (69%). You can also tell from how many people are trying to set limit orders for borrows.

Borrowing BTC to short has been really cheap in the last 3 weeks. At one point you could borrow like 400B for 2%.

How much of an effect can shorting coins on bitfinex have to the price on Gox though? I would say none. (Unless the coins are "physically" borrowed and then sold on Gox.)
If you want to drop the price of BTC's on the Net, you better try to do so on the biggest exchange...

IAS
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May 29, 2013, 05:54:38 PM
 #11734

would be interesting to know the figures of bitfinex bets, but anyway - options work with 2 parties, so if the volume is low on gox it will be low on bitfinex too i bet.

the liberty reserve thing is majorly blown up by the us govx. they state that $6 billions where "washed" over lr, ... i suspect that sum is just the total business sum, because i doubt they are able to properly separate legitimate trades from "washing"-trades, besides that only a judge can tell in a verdict which sum was illegitimate. but it will make ordinary people stay away from anything resembling e-cash for a while- so low volume ahead.

i find the way the prosecutors present their case quite entertaining, just like if they would have won over evil. but looking at it from another perspective one could  almost just as well state that lr was a succesful implementation of hawalla (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala)  in the digital domain, and so a super cool startup company working really well with cool guys on top, sort of sugarberg etc.. Wink

talking about hawalla, i hope bitcoin is "hawalla 2000" Smiley
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May 29, 2013, 05:57:34 PM
 #11735

Is there a way to see how many BTCs are short or long on bitfinex?

No, but you can discern a bit from the interest rates and sum available for loan. During the 110-115 stagnation there were tens of thousands of dollars in fiat sub 40%. Before Monday's dump the only decent interest rate was the variable interest rate (69%). You can also tell from how many people are trying to set limit orders for borrows.

Borrowing BTC to short has been really cheap in the last 3 weeks. At one point you could borrow like 400B for 2%.

How much of an effect can shorting coins on bitfinex have to the price on Gox though? I would say none. (Unless the coins are "physically" borrowed and then sold on Gox.)
If you want to drop the price of BTC's on the Net, you better try to do so on the biggest exchange...

IAS

Sure, like placing shorts, then scaring the shit out of everyone with a 7k ask wall?  Wink
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May 29, 2013, 05:58:49 PM
 #11736


How much of an effect can shorting coins on bitfinex have to the price on Gox though? I would say none. (Unless the coins are "physically" borrowed and then sold on Gox.)
If you want to drop the price of BTC's on the Net, you better try to do so on the biggest exchange...

IAS

It doesn't do much now, but you used to be able to route buy/sell orders to Gox on BFX. They removed Gox routes after the Dwolla seizure though, so it's just Bitstamp and BFX's internal book now. At least BFX is 0.1% rake and 0.25% on Bitstamp.
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May 29, 2013, 06:02:29 PM
 #11737

Quantum_Negatum
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May 29, 2013, 06:03:55 PM
Last edit: May 29, 2013, 06:14:41 PM by Quantum_Negatum
 #11738

There is no reason for the sudden and dramatic rise in volume. Insider trading? My bet is that some traders have become aware of impending negative news regarding gox and want coins off the exchange. We've been on the edge since the Dwolla incident.

Is this some kind of advanced reverse psychology that you are speaking?  Cheesy
There was just a conference with lots of VC's there. So, some traders know of impending negative news and so are somehow driving the price up and risking lots of $$$ in the meantime?
You should write children's stories...  Grin

Come on, you can come up with something more factual that that. How about the Japanese stock market COLLAPSED by 12% yesterday and that is a sign that Quantitative Easing (aka planned hyperinflation) doesn't work.

Looks like I may have been right though...

Don't confuse being right via guessing, with being right for the correct reasons. eheheh

I think things are a bit more complicated than any of us can understand to be honest.
Sit back and enjoy the ride, however slow or volatile it may be...

What am I confusing? I acknowledged I was guessing by calling it a "bet." But, it was an educated bet that took into consideration recent events.

You are making some of the most speculative guesses in this thread and have a hard time admitting that you might be wrong.
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May 29, 2013, 06:12:48 PM
 #11739

Bot fight had us touch 130.00.

Buckle. Up.
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May 29, 2013, 06:15:46 PM
 #11740

There is no reason for the sudden and dramatic rise in volume. Insider trading? My bet is that some traders have become aware of impending negative news regarding gox and want coins off the exchange. We've been on the edge since the Dwolla incident.

Is this some kind of advanced reverse psychology that you are speaking?  Cheesy
There was just a conference with lots of VC's there. So, some traders know of impending negative news and so are somehow driving the price up and risking lots of $$$ in the meantime?
You should write children's stories...  Grin

Come on, you can come up with something more factual that that. How about the Japanese stock market COLLAPSED by 12% yesterday and that is a sign that Quantitative Easing (aka planned hyperinflation) doesn't work.

Looks like I may have been right though...

Don't confuse being right via guessing, with being right for the correct reasons. eheheh

I think things are a bit more complicated than any of us can understand to be honest.
Sit back and enjoy the ride, however slow or volatile it may be...

What am I confusing? I acknowledged I was guessing by calling it a "bet." But, it was an educated bet that took into consideration recent events.

You are making some of the most speculative guesses in this thread and have a hard time admitting that you might be wrong.

My bad, I thought the "eheheh" was enough to show I was playing with you. Just having fun...
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