Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[favelle75]

1st rule of ANY stock-type item is that past performance is NEVER indicative of future performance.  It doesn't matter what the eff BCT did in the past. That has no bearing on its future.

[Rampion]

1st rule of ANY stock-type item is that past performance is NEVER indicative of future performance.  It doesn't matter what the eff BCT did in the past. That has no bearing on its future.

Sure. If you read my post history you will see I scream: "this is no 2011". I said many times that IMO the very post crash bottom was $50, which is a bullish indicator taking into account we were at $14 in January. But it's still interesting to point out both differences and similarities to the summer of 2011 situation.

Past performance may not be an indicative of future performance, but it's fun watching people saying similar things in similar situations, and making the same mistakes - over and over.

[ChartBuddy]

[rezurect]

Creeping up Up UP!

Thanks adamstgBit!

In other news, The Pirate Bay cranks up the Bitcoin (and Litecoin...) publicity:
http://thepiratebay.sx/

One of his last posts,

It would have been nice to get this attention in any other context.  WikiLeaks has kicked the hornet's nest, and the swarm is headed towards us.

[Rampion]

[ChartBuddy]

[ChartBuddy]

[Rampion]

Who said yesterday that fiat in Gox's order book was "actually increasing"?

It's going down steadily, at a rate of $1M less each 2/3 days.

At Bitstamp we have only $935k ATM, which is less than we had one week ago (aprox. $1.05M).

Where's the fiat going? Profit taking? Bears crapping their pants?

Good. Cheaper coins for the rest of us.

[Miz4r]

I don't think there is really much room or momentum for a downward trend, we're looking oversold right now and if you look at the bid sum/ask sum ratio it's still quite a bit higher than the current price. So that means there is still an overabundance of fiat sitting on the orderbook, even though overall both fiat and btc have been leaving the book lately.

[Rampion]

I don't think there is really much room or momentum for a downward trend, we're looking oversold right now and if you look at the bid sum/ask sum ratio it's still quite a bit higher than the current price. So that means there is still an overabundance of fiat sitting on the orderbook, even though overall both fiat and btc have been leaving the book lately.

Yes - but where is it going? Surely not to Bitstamp, even if wishful thinking could lead us to believe that. Some coins went indeed from Gox to Bitstamp (but still a small amount compared to the amount that vanished from Gox's order book), but the fiat is nowhere to be seen.

I know is slower to move fiat - but anyhow this "draining" process started aprox. 15 days ago. If fiat was stampeding to Bitstamp we would have seen it, and the numbers just don't add up.

So... Scared bears with pockets full of fiat, willing to cash out profits for good? It's true there is not much moment (not upwards, not downwards), but cheaper coins are expected unless some whales hop on the train - which can always happen, Bitcoin market is so ridiculously tiny that just a couple of 7 figures players can change the trend in the blink of an eye.

[wonker]

I don't think there is really much room or momentum for a downward trend, we're looking oversold right now and if you look at the bid sum/ask sum ratio it's still quite a bit higher than the current price. So that means there is still an overabundance of fiat sitting on the orderbook, even though overall both fiat and btc have been leaving the book lately.

Yes - but where is it going? Surely not to Bitstamp, even if wishful thinking could lead us to believe that. Some coins went indeed from Gox to Bitstamp (but still a small amount compared to the amount that vanished from Gox's order book), but the fiat is nowhere to be seen.

I know is slower to move fiat - but anyhow this "draining" process started aprox. 15 days ago. If fiat was stampeding to Bitstamp we would have seen it, and the numbers just don't add up.

So... Scared bears with pockets full of fiat, willing to cash out profits for good? It's true there is not much moment (not upwards, not downwards), but cheaper coins are expected unless some whales hop on the train - which can always happen, Bitcoin market is so ridiculously tiny that just a couple of 7 figures players can change the trend in the blink of an eye.

Not on Gox´s order book doesnt mean neccessary not on Gox or?

[Rampion]

I don't think there is really much room or momentum for a downward trend, we're looking oversold right now and if you look at the bid sum/ask sum ratio it's still quite a bit higher than the current price. So that means there is still an overabundance of fiat sitting on the orderbook, even though overall both fiat and btc have been leaving the book lately.

Yes - but where is it going? Surely not to Bitstamp, even if wishful thinking could lead us to believe that. Some coins went indeed from Gox to Bitstamp (but still a small amount compared to the amount that vanished from Gox's order book), but the fiat is nowhere to be seen.

I know is slower to move fiat - but anyhow this "draining" process started aprox. 15 days ago. If fiat was stampeding to Bitstamp we would have seen it, and the numbers just don't add up.

So... Scared bears with pockets full of fiat, willing to cash out profits for good? It's true there is not much moment (not upwards, not downwards), but cheaper coins are expected unless some whales hop on the train - which can always happen, Bitcoin market is so ridiculously tiny that just a couple of 7 figures players can change the trend in the blink of an eye.

Not on Gox´s order book doesnt mean neccessary not on Gox or?

Of course there is fiat on Gox which is not on the order book, but the quantity in the order book is nevertheless related with the total amount sitting on Gox. You can speculate about what is the order book/non order book ratio, but you can be sure it's a pretty consistent proportion when you take out of the equation big short-term moves where people just pull their bids so they are not eaten by the bears.

You know... Having big quantities of money on Gox for long periods without ever placing it on the order book it's just pointless.

[KS]

I don't think there is really much room or momentum for a downward trend, we're looking oversold right now and if you look at the bid sum/ask sum ratio it's still quite a bit higher than the current price. So that means there is still an overabundance of fiat sitting on the orderbook, even though overall both fiat and btc have been leaving the book lately.

Yes - but where is it going? Surely not to Bitstamp, even if wishful thinking could lead us to believe that. Some coins went indeed from Gox to Bitstamp (but still a small amount compared to the amount that vanished from Gox's order book), but the fiat is nowhere to be seen.

I know is slower to move fiat - but anyhow this "draining" process started aprox. 15 days ago. If fiat was stampeding to Bitstamp we would have seen it, and the numbers just don't add up.

So... Scared bears with pockets full of fiat, willing to cash out profits for good? It's true there is not much moment (not upwards, not downwards), but cheaper coins are expected unless some whales hop on the train - which can always happen, Bitcoin market is so ridiculously tiny that just a couple of 7 figures players can change the trend in the blink of an eye.

Not on Gox´s order book doesnt mean neccessary not on Gox or?

Of course there is fiat on Gox which is not on the order book, but the quantity in the order book is nevertheless related with the total amount sitting on Gox. You can speculate about what is the order book/non order book ratio, but you can be sure it's a pretty consistent proportion when you take out of the equation big short-term moves where people just pull their bids so they are not eaten by the bears.

You know... Having big quantities of money on Gox for long periods without ever placing it on the order book it's just pointless.

I would imagine the amount of fiat increased because of the bubble, media exposure and trading opportunities.

Since it's been going sideways for a while, I'd imagine the fiat is going to greener pastures.

[Miz4r]

Yes - but where is it going? Surely not to Bitstamp, even if wishful thinking could lead us to believe that. Some coins went indeed from Gox to Bitstamp (but still a small amount compared to the amount that vanished from Gox's order book), but the fiat is nowhere to be seen.

I know is slower to move fiat - but anyhow this "draining" process started aprox. 15 days ago. If fiat was stampeding to Bitstamp we would have seen it, and the numbers just don't add up.

So... Scared bears with pockets full of fiat, willing to cash out profits for good? It's true there is not much moment (not upwards, not downwards), but cheaper coins are expected unless some whales hop on the train - which can always happen, Bitcoin market is so ridiculously tiny that just a couple of 7 figures players can change the trend in the blink of an eye.

I think people just want to stay away from the exchanges right now because of all the turmoil around Dwolla and regulation lately. So bears cash out and remove their fiat, and bulls take out their bitcoins and store them until things are more clear regarding exchanges and regulations.

[Rampion]

Yes - but where is it going? Surely not to Bitstamp, even if wishful thinking could lead us to believe that. Some coins went indeed from Gox to Bitstamp (but still a small amount compared to the amount that vanished from Gox's order book), but the fiat is nowhere to be seen.

I know is slower to move fiat - but anyhow this "draining" process started aprox. 15 days ago. If fiat was stampeding to Bitstamp we would have seen it, and the numbers just don't add up.

So... Scared bears with pockets full of fiat, willing to cash out profits for good? It's true there is not much moment (not upwards, not downwards), but cheaper coins are expected unless some whales hop on the train - which can always happen, Bitcoin market is so ridiculously tiny that just a couple of 7 figures players can change the trend in the blink of an eye.

I think people just want to stay away from the exchanges right now because of all the turmoil around Dwolla and regulation lately. So bears cash out and remove their fiat, and bulls take out their bitcoins and store them until things are more clear regarding exchanges and regulations.

Add to that the bubble-burst effect (less interest, etc.), and there you have money saying "bye bye" to exchanges.

I have to admit I withdrew all the coins I had on Gox and I stopped trading for the last 3/4 days. Next week I will still send some fresh fiat I'm managing for a couple friends to Gox, but I will place my bids quite low, wait and see. All the indicators are screaming "down" ATM.

[Miz4r]

Yes - but where is it going? Surely not to Bitstamp, even if wishful thinking could lead us to believe that. Some coins went indeed from Gox to Bitstamp (but still a small amount compared to the amount that vanished from Gox's order book), but the fiat is nowhere to be seen.

I know is slower to move fiat - but anyhow this "draining" process started aprox. 15 days ago. If fiat was stampeding to Bitstamp we would have seen it, and the numbers just don't add up.

So... Scared bears with pockets full of fiat, willing to cash out profits for good? It's true there is not much moment (not upwards, not downwards), but cheaper coins are expected unless some whales hop on the train - which can always happen, Bitcoin market is so ridiculously tiny that just a couple of 7 figures players can change the trend in the blink of an eye.

I think people just want to stay away from the exchanges right now because of all the turmoil around Dwolla and regulation lately. So bears cash out and remove their fiat, and bulls take out their bitcoins and store them until things are more clear regarding exchanges and regulations.

Add to that the bubble-burst effect (less interest, etc.), and there you have money saying "bye bye" to exchanges.

I have to admit I withdrew all the coins I had on Gox and I stopped trading for the last 3/4 days. Next week I will still send some fresh fiat I'm managing for a couple friends to Gox, but I will place my bids quite low, wait and see. All the indicators are screaming "down" ATM.

Which indicators? I'm afraid I don't see it. The uncertainty about exchanges has been here for a while and we've only been going up since then, except for the quick spike downwards right after the Dwolla news. Now we found resistance above $135 some people decided it was a good time to cash in their profits, and now we're sitting at $128. I see no indication of it going further down, I'm curious to find out what indicators you're looking at.

[ChartBuddy]

[ManBearPig]

1st rule of ANY stock-type item is that past performance is NEVER indicative of future performance.  It doesn't matter what the eff BCT did in the past. That has no bearing on its future.

This is so wrong. The order book is indicative of what orders people placed IN THE PAST.

Historical support and resistance lines are due what has been traded IN THE PAST.

Previous highs and lows...etc.

Like many things in life, those who can't do X, don't do X.

In this case: TA.

Or do you believe in the random walk theory?

[ManBearPig]

I'm the only feeling bad for the poor bear hit by the car?

No.

[Rampion]

Yes - but where is it going? Surely not to Bitstamp, even if wishful thinking could lead us to believe that. Some coins went indeed from Gox to Bitstamp (but still a small amount compared to the amount that vanished from Gox's order book), but the fiat is nowhere to be seen.

I know is slower to move fiat - but anyhow this "draining" process started aprox. 15 days ago. If fiat was stampeding to Bitstamp we would have seen it, and the numbers just don't add up.

So... Scared bears with pockets full of fiat, willing to cash out profits for good? It's true there is not much moment (not upwards, not downwards), but cheaper coins are expected unless some whales hop on the train - which can always happen, Bitcoin market is so ridiculously tiny that just a couple of 7 figures players can change the trend in the blink of an eye.

I think people just want to stay away from the exchanges right now because of all the turmoil around Dwolla and regulation lately. So bears cash out and remove their fiat, and bulls take out their bitcoins and store them until things are more clear regarding exchanges and regulations.

Add to that the bubble-burst effect (less interest, etc.), and there you have money saying "bye bye" to exchanges.

I have to admit I withdrew all the coins I had on Gox and I stopped trading for the last 3/4 days. Next week I will still send some fresh fiat I'm managing for a couple friends to Gox, but I will place my bids quite low, wait and see. All the indicators are screaming "down" ATM.

Which indicators? I'm afraid I don't see it. The uncertainty about exchanges has been here for a while and we've only been going up since then, except for the quick spike downwards right after the Dwolla news. Now we found resistance above $135 some people decided it was a good time to cash in their profits, and now we're sitting at $128. I see no indication of it going further down, I'm curious to find out what indicators you're looking at.

I'm looking at a decreasing volume and a decreasing buying pressure. I'm looking at bearish triangles about complete. I'm also looking at a wary and "wait and see" sentiment after Gox's fuck up with its FinCEN registration. I'm also looking at the similarities between today and 2011 post-crash, but this last point is pretty useless as there are many differences too that invalidate any type of correlation.

IMO the best thing that could happen to short-term bulls would be to test $125 with BIG volume, and not breaking it - if that happens, the only way is UP. If $125 is broken, expect much cheaper coins and longer decline.

Anyhow, I'm still mid and long term bull - just let me be clear on the fact that everything above $50 is ultra-bullish in my book. Jeez, we were trading at $14 just in January. I cannot take that out from my mind