Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

[Its About Sharing]

In other news, markets are down.

http://finance.yahoo.com/

Nikkei down 4%. Man, is that like down over 20% or so in two weeks?

http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/

Yup. Europeans market have been in the red for quite a few days also... and now the Americans (as in the true definition of the word).

Fun times.

Thanks, I didn't know about the European info (odd considering I'm in Germany).
I have heard from a few different sources (reliable with other stock market top calls) that the DOW will hit 16000 or so max and then POP goes the weasel. That will also coincide with a fall of the dollar.
Not saying I believe that, but I am watching for that...

Devaluation of the Dollar is actually what drives the market up

I understand that quite well. I prefer to just call it inflation, soon to be hyperinflation if they keep doing what they are doing. They are printing 85 billion new dollars every month. The banks that receive this are investing some of those $$$ in the stock market. The Fed I believe has as much as said that they are involved in asset (stock market) allocation. People who have money in the bank, hurt by artificially low interest rates are also putting money in the stock market. So, we have a sideways to falling economy, decreasing productivity, very high unemployment rates, people working 2 or more jobs and often being completely overqualified for what they are doing = A rising stock market. I guess most folks believe CNN, FOX, etc.

Anyway, the thing that is keeping things going is that people believe in the money. Money is essentially faith, we are seeing that with BTC. Intriniscally it has value for a few reasons, most notably its cryptographic security imo. Once people stop believing in the dollar, once they can't keep printing dollars to make the stock market go up (e.g. - worsening economy, rates that need to rise) = POP goes the weasel.

My point with the 16,000 level in the DOW was that, that is around when their game ends, regardless of printing more money or not.

No, we're not seeing "essentially faith" with bitcoin. It's more. I have to agree finally with Max Keiser: bitcoin does have intrinsic value (I used to argue it was all pure faith). The intrinsic value of bitcoin is it's scarcity combined with the fact that you can send it through the internet anonymously. That's intrinsic value right there.

I did say it has value intrinsically and I did say for a few reasons (and I am VERY familiar with Keisser and like the guy). I am saying, you still need faith for a money to work. Whether or not you see it as primary or secondary is just semantics.
If BTC was scarce but not secure (cryptographically), it wouldn't matter much, now would it? Bitcoin isn't anonymous. I would say it is pseudoanonymous (experts seem to agree here). You really have to know what you are doing to make it anonymous. I can imagine that if BTC follows money regulations, they will probably go after those trying to be completely anonymous. Not saying I like that, but can't imagine them not at least trying, just like they have been with torrent for years (and failing of course).

And by faith, that is not a bad thing. That is the center of money, that is what keeps it going. We all know BTC is valuable intrinsically, but the number of people I have to explain to what money is (that have lots of it, use it, etc.) just shows you people have faith in it. They don't understand it. They really have no idea on basic things like fractional reserve banking and such.

[MAbtc]

No, we're not seeing "essentially faith" with bitcoin. It's more. I have to agree finally with Max Keiser: bitcoin does have intrinsic value (I used to argue it was all pure faith). The intrinsic value of bitcoin is it's scarcity combined with the fact that you can send it through the internet anonymously. That's intrinsic value right there.

I can do this with a slew of scammy altcoins. "Onecoin" is a much more scarce crypto-currency than bitcoin. So much for intrinsic value.

The scarcity point is completely irrelevant right now -- the only way to know that future demand will be sufficient is to crystal ball that shit.

This is indeed "essentially faith". But, I think, that is the way of most burgeoning ideas -- early adopters need to have faith. Rome doesn't get built in a day.

[crumbcake]

No, we're not seeing "essentially faith" with bitcoin. It's more. I have to agree finally with Max Keiser: bitcoin does have intrinsic value (I used to argue it was all pure faith). The intrinsic value of bitcoin is it's scarcity combined with the fact that you can send it through the internet anonymously. That's intrinsic value right there.

Unless you somehow enjoy sending coins back & forth, and don't care if they buy you any goodies, i think we're talking "instrumental value."

[oda.krell]

No, we're not seeing "essentially faith" with bitcoin. It's more. I have to agree finally with Max Keiser: bitcoin does have intrinsic value (I used to argue it was all pure faith). The intrinsic value of bitcoin is it's scarcity combined with the fact that you can send it through the internet anonymously. That's intrinsic value right there.

Unless you somehow enjoy sending coins back & forth, and don't care if they buy you any goodies, i think we're talking "instrumental value."

Frozenlock just gave the answer that ends this discussion. The blockchain has the potential to become so much more than a ledger that stores bitcoin transactions. Bitcoins however are what gives you access to it. Intrinsic value, right there.

[MAbtc]

Frozenlock just gave the answer that ends this discussion. The blockchain has the potential to become so much more than a ledger that stores bitcoin transactions. Bitcoins however are what gives you access to it. Intrinsic value, right there.

Could you give some examples?

[ChartBuddy]

[Its About Sharing]

Frozenlock just gave the answer that ends this discussion. The blockchain has the potential to become so much more than a ledger that stores bitcoin transactions. Bitcoins however are what gives you access to it. Intrinsic value, right there.

Could you give some examples?

I wonder if he is talking about other uses for a new blockchain or the existing blockchain. If it is a new blockchain, then we are talking about things like namecoin (decentralized dns), decentralized voting, online ownership ledger, etc. If he is talking about the bitcoin blockchain, then that is interesting as it starts to build upon bitcoins blockchain with other services. I'd love to hear more about that. And don't get me wrong,
either of the preceding are transcending technologically. We are at a special place guys in our history. I only wish more could see it.

Behold the anti-fragile black swan (see my sig)...

[crumbcake]

No, we're not seeing "essentially faith" with bitcoin. It's more. I have to agree finally with Max Keiser: bitcoin does have intrinsic value (I used to argue it was all pure faith). The intrinsic value of bitcoin is it's scarcity combined with the fact that you can send it through the internet anonymously. That's intrinsic value right there.

Unless you somehow enjoy sending coins back & forth, and don't care if they buy you any goodies, i think we're talking "instrumental value."

Frozenlock just gave the answer that ends this discussion. The blockchain has the potential to become so much more than a ledger that stores bitcoin transactions. Bitcoins however are what gives you access to it. Intrinsic value, right there.

I'm still not sure what you mean, maybe my interpretation of intrinsic value is too literal?  The blockchain won't start making cheese or building cars, will it?

[oda.krell]

Frozenlock just gave the answer that ends this discussion. The blockchain has the potential to become so much more than a ledger that stores bitcoin transactions. Bitcoins however are what gives you access to it. Intrinsic value, right there.

Could you give some examples?

I think nerds like to, well, nerd out about the potential of the block chain because it takes a while before you can even wrap your head around what it actually is: a distributed, tamper & attack-proof, eternal, trust-free storage of information.

One idea that I've heard was using the block chain as a way to publish information and at the same time being able to prove that you were the first one to do so. But in reality I think what gets the nerds excited is that we can't really see yet what it might be useful for, just that it feels like it very likely that in the future people will come up with a bunch of ideas we can't even dream of. A bit like how Vint Cerf probably didn't have a clue what the Internet one day would look like, but he seemed to realize the potential that it could become something big one day.

[Frozenlock]

Frozenlock just gave the answer that ends this discussion. The blockchain has the potential to become so much more than a ledger that stores bitcoin transactions. Bitcoins however are what gives you access to it. Intrinsic value, right there.

Could you give some examples?

I think nerds like to, well, nerd out about the potential of the block chain because it takes a while before you can even wrap your head around what it actually is: a distributed, tamper & attack-proof, eternal, trust-free storage of information. (...)

Yup.

You could "relatively" easily bootstrap an entire financial sector (stocks, options, etc.) on top of bitcoin and be incredibly secure. All this without the need for massive investment, or even a powerful and corrupt-free judicial system.

The price to use this? Transaction fees, paid in bitcoins.

[Frozenlock]

But I still think Bitcoin is currently overvalued. 

[lucas.sev]

But I still think Bitcoin is currently overvalued. 

The truth is, outside speculation, bitcoin is only supported by silkroad. Imagine speculators leaving, and silkroad shutting down.

[giszmo]

About Bitcoin's value: If somebody shows you a gold/silver/bit coin or a $100 bill and offers you to buy it for half its value, would you buy it?

[oda.krell]

But I still think Bitcoin is currently overvalued. 

The truth is, outside speculation, bitcoin is only supported by silkroad. Imagine speculators leaving, and silkroad shutting down.

That canard doesn't become truer just by repeating it over and over, y'know.

[Frozenlock]

About Bitcoin's value: If somebody shows you a gold/silver/bit coin or a $100 bill and offers you to buy it for half its value, would you buy it?

Sure. If somebody offers me a $60 BTC, I'll buy it.

[giszmo]

If I sell you a soda and you give me a dollar and I don't give you the soda claiming you didn't give me a dollar, what can you do?
If "I sell you a soda for $1 to this address: …" and I don't give you the soda, what can you do?

Sure, you might answer question one with some violence towards me or my store.
With bitcoin you have all the benefits of an on the record transaction like credit card payment combined with full anonymity as long as there are no complaints.

[giszmo]

About Bitcoin's value: If somebody shows you a gold/silver/bit coin or a $100 bill and offers you to buy it for half its value, would you buy it?

Sure. If somebody offers me a $60 BTC, I'll buy it.

So how about the 100 dollars for $50? How about the gold and silver coins? Lets add a bank transfer: If you give me $50, I will send you $100. I will even send them first if you insist.

[lucas.sev]

But I still think Bitcoin is currently overvalued. 

The truth is, outside speculation, bitcoin is only supported by silkroad. Imagine speculators leaving, and silkroad shutting down.

That canard doesn't become truer just by repeating it over and over, y'know.

Many people riding the 1k BTC bandwagon seem to forget that.

[lucas.sev]

About Bitcoin's value: If somebody shows you a gold/silver/bit coin or a $100 bill and offers you to buy it for half its value, would you buy it?

Sure. If somebody offers me a $60 BTC, I'll buy it.

So how about the 100 dollars for $50? How about the gold and silver coins? Lets add a bank transfer: If you give me $50, I will send you $100. I will even send them first if you insist.

What are you trying to prove? Anyone would buy it so that they can sell it 1 second later for instant profit.