Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ElectricMucus]

bid/ask sum has just crossed price, bullish signal.

They are both on dfferent scales ... change the scale and you can make them cross anywhere you want 

No, they share the same unit - usd per btc and same scale.
I was referring to the first graph, if you disagreee, you'd better go for an eye check.

It's coincidental.

[wachtwoord]

bid/ask sum has just crossed price, bullish signal.

They are both on dfferent scales ... change the scale and you can make them cross anywhere you want 

http://archive.org/details/HowToLieWithStatistics

[Miz4r]

bid/ask sum has just crossed price, bullish signal.

They are both on dfferent scales ... change the scale and you can make them cross anywhere you want  

You're looking at the wrong graph. The bid/ask sum gives an indication of how much fiat there is on the orderbook compared to the amount of coins for sale. If the number is higher than the current price level that usually is a bullish sign. It has been that way all the way up to $266, and it has been lower since we established the current downtrend. Now it's crossing over again, which could indicate a trend reversal.

[prof7bit]

bid/ask sum has just crossed price, bullish signal.

They are both on dfferent scales ... change the scale and you can make them cross anywhere you want 

No, they share the same unit - usd per btc and same scale.
I was referring to the first graph, if you disagreee, you'd better go for an eye check.

It's coincidental.

No, its intentional.

[Its About Sharing]

Bids are not lowering, it just looks that way now because the price went up from 98-ish to 102. That also makes the ask side look more in balance with the bid side now, I guess double digits are just not sustainable (yet?).

Ahhh, I see your point. I really don't think double digits are sustainable either - sustainable being the key word. We may have buyers come in and jack the price up but there are many many people who would like to sell in the $100 + range, so I don't see a prolonged rally unless those buyers start coming in force. For that we need something - news, another bank to go under, interest rates to really rise, etc.

I don't like being in Fiat but I get the feeling we will slowly settle below 100. I worked some numbers by studying the chart (and past charts) and came up with a bounce off the $90 range on our way down.  The other points on the way down (not saying we reach all of them) is 82, 68 and 60. Maybe low 50's but I think the buying won't let that happen, too many people want it. Depending on how long the downward movement goes on, I'd "guess" the $68 region is more likely, we'll have to see how people react.

Any chance of teasing an explanation from you...?

When I traded many years ago I was almost exclusively a candlestick guy. Well, I started going through the old "crash" last night and comparing it to the new one. I broke the chart down into an hourly one (and there abouts) and focussed on some of the key volume spikes on the move down. But, I also was looking at the formation of the old (2011) bubble and what was interesting is that on the way up, there was a disturbance in the smooth rise, and on the way down that disturbance clearly acted as support. So, instead focussing on the move down (which I looked closely at) I was also trying to correlate things to the move up. In a way, you can call it like an expected "mirror approach". The current bubble is not quite as pronounced, but just observe the chart and look for these mirror spots. I'm not saying it will work, but it doesn't really disagree with the move downs support levels. I did some eyeball averaging as well and it all seemed to add up. The bounces are quite predictable (but I'm not really a trader per say). That is the short of it.

[ElectricMucus]

bid/ask sum has just crossed price, bullish signal.

They are both on dfferent scales ... change the scale and you can make them cross anywhere you want 

No, they share the same unit - usd per btc and same scale.
I was referring to the first graph, if you disagreee, you'd better go for an eye check.

It's coincidental.

No, its intentional.

Maybe

[JimCGSavings]

http://namcdn.com/btcalarm/
Pretty cool site, props to the one who made it available for us.

Cool. Thanks!

[sarc]

Bids are not lowering, it just looks that way now because the price went up from 98-ish to 102. That also makes the ask side look more in balance with the bid side now, I guess double digits are just not sustainable (yet?).

Ahhh, I see your point. I really don't think double digits are sustainable either - sustainable being the key word. We may have buyers come in and jack the price up but there are many many people who would like to sell in the $100 + range, so I don't see a prolonged rally unless those buyers start coming in force. For that we need something - news, another bank to go under, interest rates to really rise, etc.

I don't like being in Fiat but I get the feeling we will slowly settle below 100. I worked some numbers by studying the chart (and past charts) and came up with a bounce off the $90 range on our way down.  The other points on the way down (not saying we reach all of them) is 82, 68 and 60. Maybe low 50's but I think the buying won't let that happen, too many people want it. Depending on how long the downward movement goes on, I'd "guess" the $68 region is more likely, we'll have to see how people react.

Any chance of teasing an explanation from you...?

When I traded many years ago I was almost exclusively a candlestick guy. Well, I started going through the old "crash" last night and comparing it to the new one. I broke the chart down into an hourly one (and there abouts) and focussed on some of the key volume spikes on the move down. But, I also was looking at the formation of the old (2011) bubble and what was interesting is that on the way up, there was a disturbance in the smooth rise, and on the way down that disturbance clearly acted as support. So, instead focussing on the move down (which I looked closely at) I was also trying to correlate things to the move up. In a way, you can call it like an expected "mirror approach". The current bubble is not quite as pronounced, but just observe the chart and look for these mirror spots. I'm not saying it will work, but it doesn't really disagree with the move downs support levels. I did some eyeball averaging as well and it all seemed to add up. The bounces are quite predictable (but I'm not really a trader per say). That is the short of it.

interesting, thanks. 

[ChartBuddy]

[Jozzaboy]

Sucker rally deflating... good thing I added more money to the exchange.

[Miz4r]

bid/ask sum has just crossed price, bullish signal.

They are both on different scales ... change the scale and you can make them cross anywhere you want  

You're looking at the wrong graph. The bid/ask sum gives an indication of how much fiat there is on the orderbook compared to the amount of coins for sale. If the number is higher than the current price level that usually is a bullish sign. It has been that way all the way up to $266, and it has been lower since we established the current downtrend. Now it's crossing over again, which could indicate a trend reversal.

They number may be the same, but they are in different units ... Bid/ask sum is in %, price is in $.
I don't deny that there is some correlation between bid/ask sum and price but looking at the crossover point seems arbitrary to me
But feel free to use it as a trading indicator if you wish ... it's your money

It's not the only indicator I look at, but yes I do think it's useful. When bids are piling up at a faster rate than the asks then it's not strange to think that the price might be going up at some point. Also bids have been steadily on the rise since Monday, it's not a sudden spike or something which could point to manipulation or a big move from only one or a few whales.

[Miz4r]

bid/ask sum has just crossed price, bullish signal.

They are both on dfferent scales ... change the scale and you can make them cross anywhere you want 

No, they share the same unit - usd per btc and same scale.
I was referring to the first graph, if you disagreee, you'd better go for an eye check.

You are wrong ... if you disagree go take a maths test
The numbers are the same but the units are different ... think about it ... how can bid sum/ask sum be expressed in dollars ??

bid sum/ask sum = USD/btc
price = USD/btc

[EuroTrash]

bid sum/ask sum = USD/btc
price = USD/btc

does it mean that the sum of all bids is expressed in USD and the sum of all the asks is expressed in BTC?
sorry for noob question

[KS]

Can't argue with you on price ... you got that one spot on  

lol

[KS]

could anyone point me to a site where I can see the PSAR? ('cept for bitcoincharts.com)

[Miz4r]

bid sum/ask sum = USD/btc
price = USD/btc

does it mean that the sum of all bids is expressed in USD and the sum of all the asks is expressed in BTC?
sorry for noob question

Yes it does. Sum of all bids is simply the total amount of USD that's sitting on the orderbook wanting to buy BTC. Sum of asks is the total amount of BTC for sale on the orderbook.

[sarc]

bid sum/ask sum = USD/btc
price = USD/btc

does it mean that the sum of all bids is expressed in USD and the sum of all the asks is expressed in BTC?
sorry for noob question

Yes it does. Sum of all bids is simply the total amount of USD that's sitting on the orderbook wanting to buy BTC. Sum of asks is the total amount of BTC for sale on the orderbook.

that was my understanding...

[BitcoinAshley]

Hmm, everyone expects price to continue going way down into the double digits.

So that behavior/expectation must already be priced in, meaning we're not going much lower than this! 

That said, I'm still expecting low 90's within a week from now. Unless the manipulators are REALLY GOOD at keeping it close to $100.

[BitAddict]

Hmm, everyone expects price to continue going way down into the double digits.

So that behavior/expectation must already be priced in, meaning we're not going much lower than this!  

That said, I'm still expecting low 90's within a week from now. Unless the manipulators are REALLY GOOD at keeping it close to $100.

I think we will go down to $90 or even $80 until we have some good news or another country do like Cyprus, after that we will skyrocket.

Of course is just my opinion

[sarc]

bid sum/ask sum = USD/btc
price = USD/btc

does it mean that the sum of all bids is expressed in USD and the sum of all the asks is expressed in BTC?
sorry for noob question

Yes it does. Sum of all bids is simply the total amount of USD that's sitting on the orderbook wanting to buy BTC. Sum of asks is the total amount of BTC for sale on the orderbook.

So 'ask sum' in the bid sum/ask sum RATIO is defined in BTC is it ?
Look at the chart below, which has 'Bid Sum [USD]' on one side and  'Ask Sum [kBTC]' on the other and see if this confirms your theory

Hint ... it doesn't

are you *very* sure....