Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitserve]

As you seem to be very well versed in both in Bitcoin and PM's... Any prediction on when the price of one Bitcoin will be equal to 1KG gold bar?

Yea right.  If Roger Ver or Winklevoss attempted to liquidate all their bitcoins and convert it into gold or silver, someone from the BIS would probably drive up in a limo and shoot them in the head.  Bitcoin is already an illiquid/toxic asset for the majority of these big holders.

As is almost any asset for anyone that holds it in such vast quantities. Not different to stocks... you think Bill Gates/Warren Buffet could liquidate all of his stocks? Not easily... and of course not by dumping it all in the stock exchanges. Probably the same for BIG gold holders. So what's the difference here?

OTH, they can do some interesting OTC trades between BIG holders of different assets. And that's exactly what they do when they do want to diversify.

But what that has to do with the prediction?

[ErisDiscordia]

...There are multiple paths to cuckoldism.  

And here I thought the single path to cuckoldism was to have your professedly monogamous female partner engage in sexual activities with another male without your knowledge! In other words, breaking your ownership contract on her body.

But that is fake news, the word cuckold has been redefined, like so many others.

Don't you want to use that r/K-selection stuff Ibian is so fond of instead? It's really gaining popularity nowadays, you can be an early adopter!

Or perhaps you feel more at home in something more traditional and conservative, like beta-male?

You may also get a bit more poetic and creative and use words like pussywhipped, henpecked, cocksmacked, manchecked, emasculated pathetic cringing little milksop. The possibilities are endless, why limit yourself?

[jojo69]

There is a higher low.

Now let's make a higher high.




And ffs Eris, stop quoting him, it is beneath you.

[realr0ach]

OTH, they can do some interesting OTC trades between BIG holders of different assets. And that's exactly what they do when they do want to diversify.

I don't think so.  If somebody owned say, CAT the construction equipment company, just vast amounts of physical hardware, buildings, and equipment, the last thing they're going to want for all those real world goods is...some imaginary tokens.  Maybe they can trade 200,000 imaginary bitcoins for some imaginary Wall Street company like Facebook, though.

[bitserve]

OTH, they can do some interesting OTC trades between BIG holders of different assets. And that's exactly what they do when they do want to diversify.

I don't think so.  If somebody owned say, CAT the construction equipment company, just vast amounts of physical hardware, buildings, and equipment, the last thing they're going to want for all those real world goods is...some imaginary tokens.  Maybe they can trade 200,000 imaginary bitcoins for some imaginary Wall Street company like Facebook, though.

That's your opinion. I am sure there has been trades like those. We (or me) just don't know for sure on the specific ones.

What we know is that people like Richard Branson own significant quantities of BTC. Did they pay in cash or did they traded some other asset? And, any way they did, what's relevant is that they could have just swapped stocks they own in vast quantity with someone that owns BTC in vasts quantities.... "Liquidity problem" solved for big holders.

[ErisDiscordia]

There is a higher low.

Now let's make a higher high.




And ffs Eris, stop quoting him, it is beneath you.

Yeah sorry about that I got a bit carried away, discord and all that.

On with the regular show!

[Arriemoller]

So who is considered an early adopter these days? Is it still people who bought in 2010, or is it now people who bought in 2012 or 2013? And dont give me that bull answer of we're all still early adopters.

 Textbook answer:

Early Adopters (13.5%) – This is the second fastest category of individuals who adopt an innovation. These individuals have the highest degree of opinion leadership among the other adopter categories. Early adopters are typically younger in age, have a higher social status, have more financial lucidity, advanced education, and are more socially forward than late adopters. More discrete in adoption choices than innovators. Realize judicious choice of adoption will help them maintain central communication position

~Rogers 1962 5th ed, p. 283

 literally

 

So it's not until full adoption that we can say who the early adopters were.

[bitserve]

So who is considered an early adopter these days? Is it still people who bought in 2010, or is it now people who bought in 2012 or 2013? And dont give me that bull answer of we're all still early adopters.

 Textbook answer:

Early Adopters (13.5%) – This is the second fastest category of individuals who adopt an innovation. These individuals have the highest degree of opinion leadership among the other adopter categories. Early adopters are typically younger in age, have a higher social status, have more financial lucidity, advanced education, and are more socially forward than late adopters. More discrete in adoption choices than innovators. Realize judicious choice of adoption will help them maintain central communication position

~Rogers 1962 5th ed, p. 283

 literally

 

So it's not until full adoption that we can say who the early adopters were.

Sorta. But a technology/product can have an early estimation on what would be full adoption. For some it is the entire population, for other more "niche" technologies/products it is way lower.
We could consider, at this stage, that Bitcoin full adoption would be the equivalent as:

a) Paypal users
b) Credit cards users
c) Bank account users
d) FIAT users

Just chose any of those depending on how conservative/agressive you are on your target of full adoption and recalculate with current number of adopters to see where we are.

P.S.: It is interesting to note that not even "Fiat users" equals to total world population. Maybe two thirds?

[AlcoHoDL]

Bitcoin is holding nicely, amidst a few dips. I like it! Looks like we've conquered the 10k € level and are marching ahead.

Also, Litecoin is getting lots of love lately. I have some, so I'm happy too.

Go BTC go!
Go Ł go!

[jbreher]

Haha - It's my cousin - Falling Bear. I didn't know he'd taken up snowboarding. But he did live in Eldora for a season. Musta picked it up there.

[Searing]

https://tulipmining.com/


Go Full Tulip!

[Wekkel]

https://tulipmining.com/


Go Full Tulip!

From that site:

We may mine tulips, but we can't accept tulips for payment because they're too slow and expensive to move. We only accept the p2p decentralized currency Bitcoin Cash.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Great to see some consolidation & perhaps support at this price. I’d honestly love to see a couple of months of boring, non action now to be honest.

[JayJuanGee]

Great to see some consolidation & perhaps support at this price. I’d honestly love to see a couple of months of boring, non action now to be honest.

The odds of consolidation at this price (let's be generous and allow between $14k and $16.5k) is about similar to the chances of a snowball in hell..

hahahahaha   

Perhaps I am exaggerating a tiny bit, but GET REAL LFC!!!!!

You really believe that we can just go into consolidation, in this price range?  

There is a bitcoin price battle going on.  We are in the middle of such price battle...   The best that you could wish for is perhaps a week at most in this price range, and the only reason that we could get a week here would be if the sides are battling it out, and no one side has enough will power to push it one direction or another... but in the end, they are not going to settle for this price range...   

NOT gonna happen..

the price will break one direction or another, and the odds seem to be a bit better for UP... but in the end, I don't know, but I do know that we are not staying here...

Sorry to be so adamant.. but this is WAR.... can't you see it?        

[arklan]

So with cboe futures on Sunday, I'm thinking coiled spring ready to blow. Not sure of direction, though I'm betting on up... Either way it's going to be insane.

Agree or no?

[jojo69]

the entire situation is so far beyond "insane" at this point that I really just don't have words

https://youtu.be/M62Va6Ft2cw

[JayJuanGee]

So with cboe futures on Sunday, I'm thinking coiled spring ready to blow. Not sure of direction, though I'm betting on up... Either way it's going to be insane.

Agree or no?

It could be buy the rumor, sell the news... but in the longer term it is certainly bullish... because there is almost no way that these traditional financial fucks have prepared themselves enough BTC to really engage with this new instrument.

[HairyMaclairy]

So with cboe futures on Sunday, I'm thinking coiled spring ready to blow. Not sure of direction, though I'm betting on up... Either way it's going to be insane.

Agree or no?

I am not expecting much engagement at the beginning.  Most of the major banks seem to be against it - possibly because they see bitcoin as a threat to their business model.  So I am actually expecting a soft start with momentum building from there.  As futures are quoted daily in the financial press, Bitcoin becomes normalized and the long term trend is strongly up.

[TERA2]

[JayJuanGee]

So with cboe futures on Sunday, I'm thinking coiled spring ready to blow. Not sure of direction, though I'm betting on up... Either way it's going to be insane.

Agree or no?

I am not expecting much engagement at the beginning.  Most of the major banks seem to be against it - possibly because they see bitcoin as a threat to their business model.  So I am actually expecting a soft start with momentum building from there.  As futures are quoted daily in the financial press, Bitcoin becomes normalized and the long term trend is strongly up.

Overall, I agree with this assessment.

As you may have seen from my previous posts, I have been increasing my sell order increments as BTC prices go up and also from time to time, I have to reestablish my buy back increments.  I thought that as BTC prices go up and my increments get larger, both in terms of dollar amounts but also percentages, that my whole trading practice was going to become more and more passive because it is going to take a whole hell of a lot longer to trigger my orders - but fuck, with 50% price movements in a few days and then all this other volatility, it has just been causing a whole hell-of-a lot of work, and I suspect that the work might be settling down in the future, but I am still suspecting that it could take a few more months to arrive at that settling down point.. .. .and it is not just the futures trading but just the ramping up for the futures trading.. but the price has to catch up a little bit.. meaning go up, to put bitcoin in that place... so.. maybe we are going to be bouncing between $12k and $34k for the coming months.... 

but, yeah, whatever, we can try to project and speculate on some kind of reasonable scenario, yet bitcoin has this tendency to go beyond reasonable expectations, too.  aka overshooting...