Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[shmadz]

let's see if we can trip that circuit breaker on the first day, why don't we?



lol, sorry, fixed the huge image, it's been a while...

[bitserve]

let's see if we can trip that circuit breaker on the first day, why don't we?

I am not sure if that would be a good thing or not. It could be interpreted as a bullish signal if it trips it on a pump on the first day.... or it could be considered as "too much volatility" to be taken seriously. It will happen soon anyways, maybe just not today.

Btw, is a 20% on the gemini price what is considered or the price of the futures themselves? I mean.... if the futures are for january'18 a flash pump/dump shouldn't affect it that much. A much smaller constant growth/decline over a few days on the other hand.....

Hey, anyone is playing with that CBOE thing? I started registering, but got bored at second form with all that profiling questions. I laughed on the fact that 100+ trades A YEAR is the higher option on the question about expected activity.

[Ibian]

let's see if we can trip that circuit breaker on the first day, why don't we?

I am not sure if that would be a good thing or not. It could be interpreted as a bullish signal if it trips it on a pump on the first day.... or it could be considered as "too much volatility" to be taken seriously. It will happen soon anyways, maybe just not today.

Btw, is a 20% on the gemini price what is considered or the price of the futures themselves? I mean.... if the futures are for january'18 a flash pump/dump shouldn't affect it that much. A much smaller constant growth/decline over a few days on the other hand.....

Hey, anyone is playing with that CBOE thing? I started registering, but got bored at second form with all that profiling questions. I laughed on the fact that 100+ trades A YEAR is the higher option on the question about expected activity.

...these people have no idea what they are getting into, do they?

[shmadz]

let's see if we can trip that circuit breaker on the first day, why don't we?

I am not sure if that would be a good thing or not. It could be interpreted as a bullish signal if it trips it on a pump on the first day.... or it could be considered as "too much volatility" to be taken seriously. It will happen soon anyways, maybe just not today.

Btw, is a 20% on the gemini price what is considered or the price of the futures themselves? I mean.... if the futures are for january'18 a flash pump/dump shouldn't affect it that much. A much smaller constant growth/decline over a few days on the other hand.....

Hey, anyone is playing with that CBOE thing? I started registering, but got bored at second form with all that profiling questions. I laughed on the fact that 100+ trades A YEAR is the higher option on the question about expected activity.

...these people have no idea what they are getting into, do they?

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/07/father-of-high-speed-trading-to-offer-bitcoin-futures.html

it seems he knows exactly what he's getting into. he's not happy about it, but if you read between the lines, it looks like some of his "larger" clients demand the ability to trade this, and they are not upset about being limited to long orders only...

*edit* - Keep in mind, there is no limit on the supply of fiat. There is a very limited amount of bitcoin available...

[Torque]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/07/father-of-high-speed-trading-to-offer-bitcoin-futures.html

it seems he knows exactly what he's getting into. he's not happy about it, but if you read between the lines, it looks like some of his "larger" clients demand the ability to trade this, and they are not upset about being limited to long orders only...

This is the second time I've heard him say that "long term Bitcoin will be zero". I can't even process how he came to that conclusion, since Bitcoin has seemingly been non-zero (and climbing) for 8 years now WITHOUT a futures market.

[Ibian]

let's see if we can trip that circuit breaker on the first day, why don't we?

I am not sure if that would be a good thing or not. It could be interpreted as a bullish signal if it trips it on a pump on the first day.... or it could be considered as "too much volatility" to be taken seriously. It will happen soon anyways, maybe just not today.

Btw, is a 20% on the gemini price what is considered or the price of the futures themselves? I mean.... if the futures are for january'18 a flash pump/dump shouldn't affect it that much. A much smaller constant growth/decline over a few days on the other hand.....

Hey, anyone is playing with that CBOE thing? I started registering, but got bored at second form with all that profiling questions. I laughed on the fact that 100+ trades A YEAR is the higher option on the question about expected activity.

...these people have no idea what they are getting into, do they?

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/07/father-of-high-speed-trading-to-offer-bitcoin-futures.html

it seems he knows exactly what he's getting into. he's not happy about it, but if you read between the lines, it looks like some of his "larger" clients demand the ability to trade this, and they are not upset about being limited to long orders only...

*edit* - Keep in mind, there is no limit on the supply of fiat. There is a very limited amount of bitcoin available...

Huh. Long only, no shorting. So... take margin long with x1000 times leverage... pump it... profit... does this mean we win?

[Ibian]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/07/father-of-high-speed-trading-to-offer-bitcoin-futures.html

it seems he knows exactly what he's getting into. he's not happy about it, but if you read between the lines, it looks like some of his "larger" clients demand the ability to trade this, and they are not upset about being limited to long orders only...

This is the second time I've heard him say that "long term Bitcoin will be zero". I can't even process how he came to that conclusion, since Bitcoin has seemingly been non-zero (and climbing) for 8 years now WITHOUT a futures market.

It's simple. He is a liar and not even trying to hide it. It's a sort of refuge in audacity.

[Rosewater Foundation]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/07/father-of-high-speed-trading-to-offer-bitcoin-futures.html

it seems he knows exactly what he's getting into. he's not happy about it, but if you read between the lines, it looks like some of his "larger" clients demand the ability to trade this, and they are not upset about being limited to long orders only...

This is the second time I've heard him say that "long term bitcoin will be zero". I can't even process how he came to that conclusion, since Bitcoin has seemingly been non-zero (and climbing) for 8 years now WITHOUT a futures market.

I didn't watch it. I can't. I'd cringe too much. But even totally broken beyond repair, it would never go to zero. It's nearly impossible to imagine such a world. How does he do it?

It's simple. He is a liar and not even trying to hide it. It's a sort of refuge in audacity.

Ah. I see.

[shmadz]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2017/12/07/father-of-high-speed-trading-to-offer-bitcoin-futures.html

it seems he knows exactly what he's getting into. he's not happy about it, but if you read between the lines, it looks like some of his "larger" clients demand the ability to trade this, and they are not upset about being limited to long orders only...

This is the second time I've heard him say that "long term bitcoin will be zero". I can't even process how he came to that conclusion, since Bitcoin has seemingly been non-zero (and climbing) for 8 years now WITHOUT a futures market.

I didn't watch it. I can't. I'd cringe too much. But even totally broken beyond repair, it would never go to zero. It's nearly impossible to imagine such a world. How does he do it?

you should watch, it's only 5 minutes and he's the CEO of one of the most successful trading sites in the world.

he's convinced this is going to zero for the same reason all of us were certain this was a scam.. at first..

I heard about bitcoin when it had no price, pretty much. There was no exchange, the only thing I could find was some bulletin board where people were trying to make trades. Then MT GOX entered the picture and we got a pretty quick glimpse into price discovery (price went from like a dollar to over 30 bucks in a couple weeks, and then they got "hacked" and the rest is history)

anyways, my point is, everyone thinks bitcoin is a scam the first time they hear about it. it isn't until you really spend some time to look into it that you realize what it really is...

This guy is running a very big, very successful business. He doesn't have the time to look at this in depth (to his own detriment)

Anyways, I think it's helpful to at least hear the views of the naysayers, especially when they are the CEO of one of the larger trading platforms on the planet.

[Torque]

I didn't watch it. I can't. I'd cringe too much. But even totally broken beyond repair, it would never go to zero. It's nearly impossible to imagine such a world. How does he do it?

I'm pretty good at 'reading between the lines' when I hear someone speak. Just like Cramer and some of the others, he's worried about finding enough supply. In their nice comfy little elite world of equities, supply on a new IPO launch is not hard to come by. And with enough supply comes control of the market.

But with Bitcoin, Peter knows that supply would mainly have to come from existing Bitcoin holders, a stubborn lot who isn't going to part with them. So the tiny exchange float will have to get bid up to the absolute moon in order to pump liquidity into the futures trading market. Literally. Like they would have to bid Bitcoin up to $100k/btc to reach optimum liquidity. And he fears that such a price would ring the bell of many of the original Bitcoin holders, who then would dump all of their bitcoin back into the market. Thus in his mind sending bitcoin "back to zero".

But we all know that would just never happen. Those original early adopters are already sitting on tens of thousands of bitcoins and have been for eons, and they haven't sold them all yet. In fact the higher the price goes, the more hodling they will do. They are probably thinking generational wealth. I know I am.

[TERA2]

Is it going to hit the circuit breaker on the first day?

[Rosewater Foundation]

I didn't watch it. I can't. I'd cringe too much. But even totally broken beyond repair, it would never go to zero. It's nearly impossible to imagine such a world. How does he do it?

I'm pretty good at 'reading between the lines' when I hear someone speak. Just like Cramer and some of the others, he's worried about finding enough supply. In their nice comfy little elite world of equities, supply on a new IPO launch is not hard to come by.

But with Bitcoin, Peter knows that supply would mainly have to come from existing Bitcoin holders, a stubborn lot who isn't going to part with them. So the tiny exchange float will have to get bid up to the absolute moon in order to pump liquidity into the futures trading market. Literally. Like they would have to bid Bitcoin up to $100k/btc to reach optimum liquidity. And he fears that such a price would ring the bell of many of the original Bitcoin holders, who then would dump all of their bitcoin back into the market. Thus in his mind sending bitcoin "back to zero".

But we all know that would just never happen. Those original early adopters are already sitting on tens of thousands of bitcoins and have been for eons, and they haven't sold them all yet. In fact the higher the price goes, the more hodling they will do. They are probably thinking generational wealth. I know I am.

[shmadz]

Is it going to hit the circuit breaker on the first day?

Meh, it's only halfway there and it's already been... what? like 3.5 hours? what could possibly go wrong?

[Rosewater Foundation]

Anyways, I think it's helpful to at least hear the views of the naysayers, especially when they are the CEO of one of the larger trading platforms on the planet.

I disagree. I've been around long enough to know the same tired old arguments just get recycled again and again. I no longer have the patience to rehash them.

[bitserve]

Well, nothing to see here it seems.

Now, what would really make my day is when I see LN going fully operational. Combine that with a feature like the one Byteball has just implemented to easily send coins to other people emails/whatsapp/whatever... and watch the adoption and price explode with rates never before seen!

[Imbatman]

If it triggers the 20% price either up or down, do the winners automatically win and the losers automatically lose?  Right then and there?

[shmadz]

If it triggers the 20% price either up or down, do the winners automatically win and the losers automatically lose?  Right then and there?

no. the trading on the exchange just stops, see here for details: http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures/contract-specifications

[HairyMaclairy]

Oh sweet summer child.

"My gut says there's going to be some wild volatility and swings in the first couple of days. You're going to see limit up, limit down a lot, and then it'll probably settle down, but I really don't know," said Larry Tabb, founder and head of research at Tabb Group.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/08/no-one-is-sure-whether-bitcoin-futures-will-pop-or-drop-at-the-start-but-it-should-be-wild.html

[HairyMaclairy]

If it triggers the 20% price either up or down, do the winners automatically win and the losers automatically lose?  Right then and there?

no. the trading on the exchange just stops, see here for details: http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cboe-bitcoin-futures/contract-specifications

CBOE has circuit breakers only, CME has circuit breakers and suspends trading at 20%.  Gonna be a lot of closed positions due to margin calls.

[Torque]

Holy shit, I never ever thought I would see a headline in the MSM like this:

How to give the gift of bitcoin this holiday season
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/12/10/how-to-give-bitcoin-as-a-gift.html