Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[tutkarz]

Another attack on 100... someone really wants expensive coins !

tell it to people who sold their coins after bubble in 2011 or 2012 and were in the same situation like we now ... They also did wrong decision by selling and regret now.
What if it is last chance to see double digits forever?

[Gabi]

100 is cheap, not expensive.

[Rampion]

It looks like the big spike we had earlier today was a big buyer trying to push the price up with little success.

Its seems to me that is a whale trying to start a rally. Given the current market circumstances, there is no need to panic buy such amount of coins, why executing that market order with big slippage if you can just place your bids, or execute smallish orders while ask side builds up?

Of course there are other explanations. It could be a whale who just don't care about losing +$10k in slippage, because his pockets are so very deep. Or just a noob whale that doesn't know how this market works and is afraid to miss the train. Or he may be someone knowing that huge news will hit the world soon and there is no time to buy slowly. Or maybe he doesn't even know how to place bids on Gox, don't noobs always buy their first coins with market orders?

All the above seems unlikely to me. This market is so tiny that an individual with a relatively small amount of cash  (few millions $) can become a market maker. I guess the vast majority of BTC whales never experienced the feeling of being a "whale" on grown up markets, so they like to play. The most likely objective would be to trigger some panic buying that would make $105 fall, which following TA would be a strong trend reversal indicator.

I'm not buying. The whale seems to be running low on ammo. Wait and see...

[tutkarz]

It looks like the big spike we had earlier today was a big buyer trying to push the price up with little success.

Its seems to me that is a whale trying to start a rally. Given the current market circumstances, there is no need to panic buy such amount of coins, why executing that market order with big slippage if you can just place your bids, or execute smallish orders while ask side builds up?

Of course there are other explanations. It could be a whale who just don't care about losing +$10k in slippage, because his pockets are so very deep. Or just a noob whale that doesn't know how this market works and is afraid to miss the train. Or he may be someone knowing that huge news will hit the world soon and there is no time to buy slowly. Or maybe he doesn't even know how to place bids on Gox, don't noobs always buy their first coins with market orders?

All the above seems unlikely to me. This market is so tiny that an individual with a relatively small amount of cash  (few millions $) can become a market maker. I guess the vast majority of BTC whales never experienced the feeling of being a "whale" on grown up markets, so they like to play. The most likely objective would be to trigger some panic buying that would make $105 fall, which following TA would be a strong trend reversal indicator.

I'm not buying. The whale seems to be running low on ammo. Wait and see...

or maybe he is waiting for sellers to wear off...

[joesmoe2012]

Probably someone loading the Chrome Browser Extension EMA bot and it auto bought his full account balance or something like this....

Also, most 'whales' probably know more about slippage than tiny tadpools like me.

[weaknesswaran]

I'm not buying. The whale seems to be running low on ammo. Wait and see...

There was just another crazy market order with heavy slippage.

What are they doing?!

[tutkarz]

I'm not buying. The whale seems to be running low on ammo. Wait and see...

There was just another crazy market order with heavy slippage.

What are they doing?!

Buy everything to $180, sell at that price at localbitcoins. Profit.

[Abandon]

For anyone who didn't see this over the top, blaringly obvious outcome:

JimFred's count.

The 1h was way oversold for too long, and there was a hidden divergence set up, among other things. Yet there were many mixed signals.

[gizmoh]

I'm not buying. The whale seems to be running low on ammo. Wait and see...

There was just another crazy market order with heavy slippage.

What are they doing?!

Other exchanges are NOT following. Buyer Beware! Price is being inflated on Gox, this can only be temporary.

[tutkarz]

I'm not buying. The whale seems to be running low on ammo. Wait and see...

There was just another crazy market order with heavy slippage.

What are they doing?!

Other exchanges are NOT following. Buyer Beware! Price is being inflated on Gox, this can only be temporary.

they will do sooner or later.

[el_rlee]

I'm not buying. The whale seems to be running low on ammo. Wait and see...

There was just another crazy market order with heavy slippage.

What are they doing?!

Other exchanges are NOT following. Buyer Beware! Price is being inflated on Gox, this can only be temporary.

they will do sooner or later.

Bitstamp shows 94. Btw what's up with bitstamp on bitcoincharts?

[Slix]

I'm not buying. The whale seems to be running low on ammo. Wait and see...

There was just another crazy market order with heavy slippage.

What are they doing?!

Other exchanges are NOT following. Buyer Beware! Price is being inflated on Gox, this can only be temporary.

Looking at the bid/ask sum, it looks like more people are throwing fiat at BTC than there are BTC holders wanting fiat. More people buying than selling = price rise. Don't be surprised if we see $105-110 this week.

And don't kid yourself, Mt.Gox pretty much always end up setting the price of the other exchanges. Because their volume is much smaller the adjustment is slower. It's just a matter of time before they catch up.

http://blockchained.com/depth_mtgox_15d.png

[4mherewego]

Maybe just a little worried that not everything is in the image of 2011:

Honestly, 2011 is a vague guide, not a rule-book. There was a fundamental difference right at the start. In 2011 when the bubble began the base was just under $1, so increased over 30x to peak. But the fall was only to $10, still 10x base. So it had a long way to fall, and it did for 5 months.

In contrast, 2013 dropped straightaway to barely 3.5x the base of $13-$14. So a low was quickly tested. 2011 was the first bubble so a lot of people did not know what to expect. In 2013, everyone was looking at this prior event and obviously many people cashed out fast. If 2013 crashed only to $135 and bounced around that for a few months then the argument that the bottom had not been tested would be very sound. But this is not what happened.

not to mention in 2011 there was 2x more bitcoins produced than it is now, and way less people interested. I doubt we will be repeating 2011 post bubble, it will be more like 2012 one.

But 50% of those mined coins went to hoarders instead of today when 100% goes to miners who insta-cashout.

[wonkytonky]

I'm not buying. The whale seems to be running low on ammo. Wait and see...

There was just another crazy market order with heavy slippage.

What are they doing?!

Other exchanges are NOT following. Buyer Beware! Price is being inflated on Gox, this can only be temporary.

they will do sooner or later.

there was a bigger bidder last week and he hasnt bought in yet. (well not all in one time though)

[tutkarz]

Maybe just a little worried that not everything is in the image of 2011:

Honestly, 2011 is a vague guide, not a rule-book. There was a fundamental difference right at the start. In 2011 when the bubble began the base was just under $1, so increased over 30x to peak. But the fall was only to $10, still 10x base. So it had a long way to fall, and it did for 5 months.

In contrast, 2013 dropped straightaway to barely 3.5x the base of $13-$14. So a low was quickly tested. 2011 was the first bubble so a lot of people did not know what to expect. In 2013, everyone was looking at this prior event and obviously many people cashed out fast. If 2013 crashed only to $135 and bounced around that for a few months then the argument that the bottom had not been tested would be very sound. But this is not what happened.

not to mention in 2011 there was 2x more bitcoins produced than it is now, and way less people interested. I doubt we will be repeating 2011 post bubble, it will be more like 2012 one.

But 50% of those mined coins went to hoarders instead of today when 100% goes to miners who insta-cashout.

Like you know every one of them and know what they do 

[xorglub]

Well, this pump is starting to have an effect as smaller buys are coming in to push the price up.
Manipulation is obvious when you see it happen live, but let's face it on the hourly / daily chart traders will just see an important psychological resistance broken with high volume and get bullish.

(I assume that anyone with this kind of resources available has an agenda - if they were really just tossing fiat around without a plan, they would have gone broke a long time ago)

[Abandon]

It's not manipulators, it's people seeing the price going upward, so buying. Look at the wave count above. This was the natural/expected thing to happen. It has logic.

We're now at the beginning of wave 1, with four more to go.

[molecular]

I'm not buying. The whale seems to be running low on ammo. Wait and see...

There was just another crazy market order with heavy slippage.

What are they doing?!

hypothesis: newbs use market orders

[JimboToronto]

Still too early to tell if Friday's dip was just a bear trap.

Just woke up and grinding some coffee beans so I'm not fully awake yet, and I probably shouldn't make premature judgments, but it looks like a wonderful day.



Hopefully the trap has been sprung and is done and the price can continue its relentless climb back to normal after June's horrible (but artificial) Valley of the Gox.

[Loozik]

I think you deserve an explanation of what happened yesterday:

1. Your favourite daddy, Loozik, made a prediction and told you to be quick with your buy orders:

Daddy knew the price was going to drop to at least 93.87 (as per his picture), because Mrs Market demanded someone stimulated her clitoris (which happened to be at 93.87 and slightly below at that time). Daddy knew some whale would not resist the glory of this organ and will want to touch Mrs Market there at at that price.



At the beginning the prediction was going well and price started dropping in the anticipated direction. But after a few minutes the price action suddenly stopped and refused to go down. Why was that so?

My hypothesis is the whale noticed my post and picture here and realized someone was watching him as he prepared for the sacred act of clit stimulating. He was puzzled and had no idea of what to do next. Should he stop in the middle or continue while being carefully watched?

2. Daddy Loozik, having seen the whale had no clue of what to do, posted another picture for the whale so that he understands that if he does not act quick, he will need to spend a lot more coins to bring his finger to Mrs Market's clitoris from a much higher price of 97.



The whale did the arithmetic and followed the original plan to touch Mrs Market's clitoris by bring the price down to levels suggested by daddy Loozik.

3. What happened next? Mrs Market was pleased; someone stimulated her and she reciprocated with a price increase




WHO'S YOUR DADDY?