Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

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To see the truth in the false
The craving for experience is the beginning of illusion. As you now realize, your visions were but the projections of your background, of your conditioning, and it is these projections that you have experienced. Surely this is not meditation. The beginning of meditation is the understanding of the background, of the self, and without this understanding, what is called meditation, however pleasurable or painful, is merely a form of self-hypnosis. You have practised self-control, mastered thought, and concentrated on the furthering of experience. This is a self-centred occupation, it is not meditation; and to perceive that it is not meditation is the beginning of meditation. To see the truth in the false sets the mind free from the false. Freedom from the false does not come about through the desire to achieve it; it comes when the mind is no longer concerned with success with the attainment of an end. There must be the cessation of all search, and only then is there a possibility of the coming into being of that which is nameless.

Stuff like that always reminds me of a line from Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: "Learning to fly is easy.  The knack lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss."

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[ChartBuddy]

[Its About Sharing]

...

To see the truth in the false
The craving for experience is the beginning of illusion. As you now realize, your visions were but the projections of your background, of your conditioning, and it is these projections that you have experienced. Surely this is not meditation. The beginning of meditation is the understanding of the background, of the self, and without this understanding, what is called meditation, however pleasurable or painful, is merely a form of self-hypnosis. You have practised self-control, mastered thought, and concentrated on the furthering of experience. This is a self-centred occupation, it is not meditation; and to perceive that it is not meditation is the beginning of meditation. To see the truth in the false sets the mind free from the false. Freedom from the false does not come about through the desire to achieve it; it comes when the mind is no longer concerned with success with the attainment of an end. There must be the cessation of all search, and only then is there a possibility of the coming into being of that which is nameless.

Stuff like that always reminds me of a line from Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy: "Learning to fly is easy.  The knack lies in learning how to throw yourself at the ground and miss."

ehehehe, which reminds me, I'd much rather have 42 BTC's than 45...

[Its About Sharing]

Nice site, if you haven't checked out https://www.tradingview.com/ I really recommend it. I don't know how to use most of the drawing tools but it is pretty intuitive and allows for creativity.

So, what do you all think of visiting $50 - $40 between July 23rd ish and the beginning of August? I'm really happy with the triangle feature ;-) And the overbought needs correcting...

[BitPirate]

dude all im saying is that so far today's low volume in trade shows that btc is over priced. do you agree or disagree?

Disagree completely. It means noone knows what the f* to do. My reading of the situation is that we saw the potential first signs of a bullish recovery last week. That had the potential to continue for one more leg up this week, but no-one in their right mind is going to buy in the absurd situation when there is a $10 gap between the two main exchanges, and arbitrage doesn't serve to close the gap (due to one exchange following the other's price changes).

So buying pressure reduced and the price fell -- on somewhat lower volume than previous legs down. The result is rather unconvincing and leaves the market a bit listless. Even the strongest TA adherents can't convince themselves in such a bifurcated market.

My prediction, for what it's worth (nothing) is that since now Mt Gox appears to be getting it's act together, and the exchange gap is closing, buying pressure will slowly return, and we happen to be near the bottom of a less-than-100%-convincing leg down.  You might see some anticipatory buys on Sunday.

[Traktion]

It looks like we have a short term triple top forming. This is particularly clear on Bitstamp.

I suspect we will see another big drop (testing the last low) in price later today.

[Rampion]

IAS, I think we will definitely visit the '50s but I'm not sure if it will happen so fast as in your extrapolation. My impression is that we have entered a "slowish" phase, and I don't expect impulsive moves downwards for the moment, just sideway trading + a few dumps that will gradually take us down for a while, mixed up with bounces and traps.

Regarding the SatoshiDice thing, I'm honestly not expecting big dumping by the shareholders who received the monies. My guess is that the big dump related to the SD buyout already happened, insiders dumped before the thing hit the news, as usual in both BTC and FIAT world - and that IMO explains at least partially the dump that took us to the '80s from the high '90s.

The dumping of SD shareholders don't seem to me like a probable bearapocalypse, what really intrigues me is when the SD buyer bought his +100k coins. Did he bought in the last weeks? In the last months? +100k are big volume, and I wonder how much of the big moves upwards triggered in the last weeks are direct consequence of the buying of the new owner of SD. If he did most of the buying in the last weeks, and thus is responsible of the impulsive move upwards from $66 to $104, I think the lack of buying pressure will be much more relevant than the eventual "dumping" of SD ex-shareholders.

[tutkarz]

interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.

People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.

[Rampion]

interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.

People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.

Because having 1,000 coins is very different to having 500 coins.

Hitting the very bottom is pure luck, but buying 50% lower than you sold is quite achievable in a Bitcoin bear market.

[tutkarz]

interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.

People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.

Because having 1,000 coins is very different to having 500 coins.

Hitting the very bottom is pure luck, but buying 50% lower than you sold is quite achievable in a Bitcoin bear market.

you don't know when your bear market will end. And as i mentioned, you will be sure that it happend when it will be too late. Sure, you can short coins to get some more but to me waiting for bottom is playing against the trend.

[Traktion]

interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.

People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.

Doesn't everyone want to maximise their wealth?

If you can buy at $50, rather than $100, you are going to have double the wealth/Bitcoins, no matter what the price ends up being.

That doesn't mean everyone has to buy/sell. You should do what feels best for you.

[tutkarz]

interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.

People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.

Doesn't everyone want to maximise their wealth?

If you can buy at $50, rather than $100, you are going to have double the wealth/Bitcoins, no matter what the price ends up being.

That doesn't mean everyone has to buy/sell. You should do what feels best for you.

of course they want to maximise profits but the problem i am pointing to is that nobody know when bear market will end. There is no chart who will tell you this. All i read here is just pure wishes.

[Traktion]

IAS, I think we will definitely visit the '50s but I'm not sure if it will happen so fast as in your extrapolation. My impression is that we have entered a "slowish" phase, and I don't expect impulsive moves downwards for the moment, just sideway trading + a few dumps that will gradually take us down for a while, mixed up with bounces and traps.

Regarding the SatoshiDice thing, I'm honestly not expecting big dumping by the shareholders who received the monies. My guess is that the big dump related to the SD buyout already happened, insiders dumped before the thing hit the news, as usual in both BTC and FIAT world - and that IMO explains at least partially the dump that took us to the '80s from the high '90s.

The dumping of SD shareholders don't seem to me like a probable bearapocalypse, what really intrigues me is when the SD buyer bought his +100k coins. Did he bought in the last weeks? In the last months? +100k are big volume, and I wonder how much of the big moves upwards triggered in the last weeks are direct consequence of the buying of the new owner of SD. If he did most of the buying in the last weeks, and thus is responsible of the impulsive move upwards from $66 to $104, I think the lack of buying pressure will be much more relevant than the eventual "dumping" of SD ex-shareholders.

That would be compatible with a long period of consolidation, typical with a post bubble correction scenario. If it is true, it will give bears a long time to pick their moment to buy.

In fact, until this blow off phase occurs, I suspect there will still be further for the price to fall.

[WeltMaster]

interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.

People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.

Doesn't everyone want to maximise their wealth?

If you can buy at $50, rather than $100, you are going to have double the wealth/Bitcoins, no matter what the price ends up being.

That doesn't mean everyone has to buy/sell. You should do what feels best for you.

of course they want to maximise profits but the problem i am pointing to is that nobody know when bear market will end. There is no chart who will tell you this. All i read here is just pure wishes.

People selling their last bitcoin to get out of the 'scheme' screaming how much they have lost will be a good indicator.

[Traktion]

interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.

People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.

Doesn't everyone want to maximise their wealth?

If you can buy at $50, rather than $100, you are going to have double the wealth/Bitcoins, no matter what the price ends up being.

That doesn't mean everyone has to buy/sell. You should do what feels best for you.

of course they want to maximise profits but the problem i am pointing to is that nobody know when bear market will end. There is no chart who will tell you this. All i read here is just pure wishes.

We have history as our guide. While it doesn't repeat perfectly, there are often similarities.

This is why observing charts is useful. We know with a reasonable probability that certain formations will lead to certain results.

Will you get it right every time? Of course not. To ignore patterns and probabilities and to claim that it is pure guess work is not a valid assertion though.

[tutkarz]

interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.

People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.

Doesn't everyone want to maximise their wealth?

If you can buy at $50, rather than $100, you are going to have double the wealth/Bitcoins, no matter what the price ends up being.

That doesn't mean everyone has to buy/sell. You should do what feels best for you.

of course they want to maximise profits but the problem i am pointing to is that nobody know when bear market will end. There is no chart who will tell you this. All i read here is just pure wishes.

People selling their last bitcoin to get out of the 'scheme' screaming how much they have lost will be a good indicator.

if this will happen. There is also 50% chance people will be hitting wall with their heads because they didn't bought and the price for some reason sky rocketed. There is plenty of reasons in the world to make it happen. And there are people who bought pizza for 10000 bitcoins and now are pretending that's ok for them ...

[BitPirate]

interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.

People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.

Because having 1,000 coins is very different to having 500 coins.

Hitting the very bottom is pure luck, but buying 50% lower than you sold is quite achievable in a Bitcoin bear market.

OK, let's run with your assertion.

There are three broad groups: First, holders who haven't sold yet... If they haven't sold at $65, they're unlikely to do it at $50, $32, or whatever the fashionable number is. If forum melodrama about capitulation were going to affect them, it would have happened already.

Then there are people who sold and are waiting for cheap coins. We can assume that most of these people sold well above $100 -- many passed the bag over at $160. These people would double their holdings by getting in between $65 and now. Provided they get in in time. Sure enough, that's where the recent volume came from.

The third group is speculators who will ride each wave in either direction. For the purposes of this thought experiment, they aren't very relevant.

The subset of people who sold much lower and later is likely smaller an less significant than the above groups.

I'm not going to say for sure that the bottom is in -- markets take time to turn -- but it shouldn't be surprising to anyone if it is. The absolute certainty with which bears bay for blood after we're already more than 70% off the peak valuation just magnifies their folly, and is very similar to bulls' behaviour near the peak. The volatility has already been sufficient  to redistribute coins appropriately.

Bear in mind also that all this is against a background of increasing investment in Bitcoin infrastructure and start ups. Overall the baseline non-speculative value is constantly increasing.

[wachtwoord]

interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.

People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.

Doesn't everyone want to maximise their wealth?

If you can buy at $50, rather than $100, you are going to have double the wealth/Bitcoins, no matter what the price ends up being.

That doesn't mean everyone has to buy/sell. You should do what feels best for you.

of course they want to maximise profits but the problem i am pointing to is that nobody know when bear market will end. There is no chart who will tell you this. All i read here is just pure wishes.

People selling their last bitcoin to get out of the 'scheme' screaming how much they have lost will be a good indicator.

if this will happen. There is also 50% chance people will be hitting wall with their heads because they didn't bought and the price for some reason sky rocketed. There is plenty of reasons in the world to make it happen. And there are people who bought pizza for 10000 bitcoins and now are pretending that's ok for them ...

It's like trying to explain to people Martingale isn't a profitable strategy. They say they will win most of the time (which is true) but the associated loss that happens quite infrequently is so large that it outweighs all the small wins. If people don't get it I doubt they ever will. I'm holding

[WeltMaster]

interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.

People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.

Doesn't everyone want to maximise their wealth?

If you can buy at $50, rather than $100, you are going to have double the wealth/Bitcoins, no matter what the price ends up being.

That doesn't mean everyone has to buy/sell. You should do what feels best for you.

of course they want to maximise profits but the problem i am pointing to is that nobody know when bear market will end. There is no chart who will tell you this. All i read here is just pure wishes.

People selling their last bitcoin to get out of the 'scheme' screaming how much they have lost will be a good indicator.

if this will happen. There is also 50% chance people will be hitting wall with their heads because they didn't bought and the price for some reason sky rocketed. There is plenty of reasons in the world to make it happen. And there are people who bought pizza for 10000 bitcoins and now are pretending that's ok for them ...

It's like trying to explain to people Martingale isn't a profitable strategy. They say they will win most of the time (which is true) but the associated loss that happens quite infrequently is so large that it outweighs all the small wins. If people don't get it I doubt they ever will. I'm holding

If everybody had both your mentalities, the price would inflate beyond recognition and the whole experiment would hyper-deflate into oblivion. Yes you would be rich. Congratulations at your profits. But the use of bitcoins for what it is designed for would be lost. If people were not willing to sell 10'000 bitcoins for two pizzas we would not be here today.

[tutkarz]

If everybody had both your mentalities, the price would inflate beyond recognition and the whole experiment would hyper-deflate into oblivion. Yes you would be rich. Congratulations at your profits. But the use of bitcoins for what it is designed for would be lost. If people were not willing to sell 10'000 bitcoins for two pizzas we would not be here today.

not true. high bitcoin price is vital for its health. In the end 100 satoshi (or 1 XBT) should be worth $1 if this experiment would be successful.