Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[WeltMaster]

If everybody had both your mentalities, the price would inflate beyond recognition and the whole experiment would hyper-deflate into oblivion. Yes you would be rich. Congratulations at your profits. But the use of bitcoins for what it is designed for would be lost. If people were not willing to sell 10'000 bitcoins for two pizzas we would not be here today.

not true. high bitcoin price is vital for its health.

You're taking the proverbial right?

High price is good if it's actually WORTH the price. Price driven by speculation =/= healthy.

[phelix]

IAS, I think we will definitely visit the '50s but I'm not sure if it will happen so fast as in your extrapolation. My impression is that we have entered a "slowish" phase, and I don't expect impulsive moves downwards for the moment, just sideway trading + a few dumps that will gradually take us down for a while, mixed up with bounces and traps.

Regarding the SatoshiDice thing, I'm honestly not expecting big dumping by the shareholders who received the monies. My guess is that the big dump related to the SD buyout already happened, insiders dumped before the thing hit the news, as usual in both BTC and FIAT world - and that IMO explains at least partially the dump that took us to the '80s from the high '90s.

The dumping of SD shareholders don't seem to me like a probable bearapocalypse, what really intrigues me is when the SD buyer bought his +100k coins. Did he bought in the last weeks? In the last months? +100k are big volume, and I wonder how much of the big moves upwards triggered in the last weeks are direct consequence of the buying of the new owner of SD. If he did most of the buying in the last weeks, and thus is responsible of the impulsive move upwards from $66 to $104, I think the lack of buying pressure will be much more relevant than the eventual "dumping" of SD ex-shareholders.

You sound so balanced...   did you buy in finally? I thought you were proudhon 2.0 

[Its About Sharing]

IAS, I think we will definitely visit the '50s but I'm not sure if it will happen so fast as in your extrapolation. My impression is that we have entered a "slowish" phase, and I don't expect impulsive moves downwards for the moment, just sideway trading + a few dumps that will gradually take us down for a while, mixed up with bounces and traps.

Regarding the SatoshiDice thing, I'm honestly not expecting big dumping by the shareholders who received the monies. My guess is that the big dump related to the SD buyout already happened, insiders dumped before the thing hit the news, as usual in both BTC and FIAT world - and that IMO explains at least partially the dump that took us to the '80s from the high '90s.

The dumping of SD shareholders don't seem to me like a probable bearapocalypse, what really intrigues me is when the SD buyer bought his +100k coins. Did he bought in the last weeks? In the last months? +100k are big volume, and I wonder how much of the big moves upwards triggered in the last weeks are direct consequence of the buying of the new owner of SD. If he did most of the buying in the last weeks, and thus is responsible of the impulsive move upwards from $66 to $104, I think the lack of buying pressure will be much more relevant than the eventual "dumping" of SD ex-shareholders.

I was thinking the bolded yesterday, after I heard the announcement. The big moves up were probably them buying shares. Though, that sounds really inefficient so doesn't make sense on another level.

I can't imagine some of those guys will not be selling their BTC's. Though I doubt we see an exodus and we probably already would have seen that...

Thanks for the prediction of a slow move down. Something I have to consider.

[Its About Sharing]

interesting part is that people who are waiting for confirmation of trend reversal (which i think already happend and bubble deflated at $65) for $120 mark then they will have to buy back half the coins they could have at $65.

People here often show 2011 bubble to compare to 2013 one but they seem to don't see that no matter what, after one bubble there will be another 10 times bigger. This was the case 3 times now and will happen again. Then why one is trying to hit the bottom to buy if they can just buy now, sit, relax and enjoy the ride to the top? They will profit anyway and trying to hit bottom may as well end up in losing coins.

Because having 1,000 coins is very different to having 500 coins.

Hitting the very bottom is pure luck, but buying 50% lower than you sold is quite achievable in a Bitcoin bear market.

OK, let's run with your assertion.

There are three broad groups: First, holders who haven't sold yet... If they haven't sold at $65, they're unlikely to do it at $50, $32, or whatever the fashionable number is. If forum melodrama about capitulation were going to affect them, it would have happened already.

Then there are people who sold and are waiting for cheap coins. We can assume that most of these people sold well above $100 -- many passed the bag over at $160. These people would double their holdings by getting in between $65 and now. Provided they get in in time. Sure enough, that's where the recent volume came from.

The third group is speculators who will ride each wave in either direction. For the purposes of this thought experiment, they aren't very relevant.

The subset of people who sold much lower and later is likely smaller an less significant than the above groups.

I'm not going to say for sure that the bottom is in -- markets take time to turn -- but it shouldn't be surprising to anyone if it is. The absolute certainty with which bears bay for blood after we're already more than 70% off the peak valuation just magnifies their folly, and is very similar to bulls' behaviour near the peak. The volatility has already been sufficient  to redistribute coins appropriately.

Bear in mind also that all this is against a background of increasing investment in Bitcoin infrastructure and start ups. Overall the baseline non-speculative value is constantly increasing.

Good points. I do wonder about group 1 though. They now have the realization of the violence of the moves and probably a lot of them read the forums and we all see the amount of people yelling for $50 coins. And if they see the price starting to go down, I do wonder if they start to sell. The amount of coins they have is huge. Even a small percentage of them selling (which is reasonable) would affect the move down.

There are probably a lot of people who have been buying in through all of this and who have loose hands. If the price gets much lower than current prices, I don't doubt they sell.

Also, I think there are probably quite a few other scenarios that can take place but we'll see how this all ends up. Speculating is sort of fun.

I guess, for me, the idea is not to get greedy (Make use of my abilities and try to increase my position with moves in and out since my funds are very limited). As Rampion said, don't try to call the absolute bottom, but if you can pick up more coins even within 50% of it, that is beneficial. And if we buy higher then hopefully lesson learned (though I still have a cushion).

Those big buyers and sellers have certainly shown us this market can move violently and we should never lose sight of that.

IAS

[JimboToronto]

Here we are a full day after the SD coin release and still no big dump except for the pre-release panic sell, mostly in 2 chunks.

It seems the SD shareholders were not in as big a rush to buy fiat as some people so desperately hoped.

As I grind my coffee, I see the same low-volume hovering around 90 as this time yesterday.

Strange how prices actually started to creep up when the coin release started at noon UTC and dipped a little after it was done. So much for the Great Satoshi Dice BTC Selloff.

I guess they did throw a party and nobody came.

[reactor]

Here we are a full day after the SD coin release and still no big dump except for the pre-release panic sell, mostly in 2 chunks.

It seems the SD shareholders were not in as big a rush to buy fiat as some people so desperately hoped.

As I grind my coffee, I see the same low-volume hovering around 90 as this time yesterday.

Strange how prices actually started to creep up when the coin release started at noon UTC and dipped a little after it was done. So much for the Great Satoshi Dice BTC Selloff.

I guess they did throw a party and nobody came.

It's a market, it was an uncertain factor which didn't pan out.  Such is life.

If I were them and wanted fiat, it wouldn't be hard to say "#1, you sell Friday, #2, wait until it creeps up and sell, #3 follow suit".  Any three strong parties on any exchange can tip things quite favorably for one another, it is the biggest problem in BTC today that value is derived from exchanges which carry very little of the actual BTC in existence. 

If I want to use my WoW gold I have to stay in the WoW world, for BTC to hit any real usefulness outside of the BTC economy that story needs to change.  Hardware is an example, unless every last partner (down to delivery drivers) takes BTC, at some point fiat matters.  This is also a big problem for anyone using BTC.  Say I have a group order for which payment in the end needs to be in fiat.  I collect 200BTC, we're almost set, waiting for a few stragglers to come in with their transactions, suddenly price tanks 20%.  Well now we need 240BTC to cover the same fiat value.  This is *the* problem.

[ChartBuddy]

[grubles]

What is this? A chart for ants?

[thezerg]

Everybody thinks SD buyout -> 150k BTC being sent to stockholders... not true if the buyer already owned 90% of the outstanding stock.  Always a good plan to ensure the purchasing "premium" is a lot fewer actual BTC than calculated.

As for the "whys" of the sale, it was inevitable.  When you've got little, being involved in a quasi-legal enterprise (that does not violate your own ethical standards) is one thing.  But once you're looking at living a luxurious lifestyle without ever working again, the idea of cooling your heels in jail over an issue that could have gone either way starts looking pretty grim.  SD probably went on the block the moment the website was blocked to US customers.  

Better (for SD at least) that it be sold to an owner living in a jurisdiction where gambling is legal...

[Its About Sharing]

What is this? A chart for ants?

Close...

[JimboToronto]

nice little buy

[derpinheimer]

nice little buy

Little? >5k

[dexX7]

What is this? A chart for ants?

Click it!

But CB could get a bit larger.. there are still some pixels in height left, before interfering with the surrounding layout.

[lucas.sev]

nice little buy

Little? >5k

1.5k, how is it supposed to be 5k if volume during past 20 min is less than 2k?

[Cablez]

Even more interesting are the little walls that come along with the buy.

[JimboToronto]

Little? >5k

I saw it as closer to 2.5k for the main buy.

Either way compared to the 11k whale dump a couple of nights ago it's somewhat modest.

[w00dy]

nice little buy

Little? >5k

1.5k, how is it supposed to be 5k if volume during past 20 min is less than 2k?

clarkmoody and tradeview both say >5k

[btc237ftw]

There has been a buyout from a single entity of 5,000 btc (almost $500,000) - could this be the first batch of buyings from the $11M of the SatoshiDice PayOut?

[lucas.sev]

There has been a buyout from a single entity of 5,000 btc (almost $500,000) - could this be the first batch of buyings from the $11M of the SatoshiDice PayOut?

buyings from payout? wtf?

[derpinheimer]

nice little buy

Little? >5k

1.5k, how is it supposed to be 5k if volume during past 20 min is less than 2k?