Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Rampion]

Price isn't driven by miners, but by traders and commodity speculation as has been amply demonstrated elsewhere.

This.

It's obvious that price is not driven by difficulty, but inflation does have an impact on price - at this stage inflation in BTC its non negligible, and its in fact built into the system to pay for the work and costs of mining during the early days of Bitcoin. Thus, looking at growing difficulty and expecting growing price is a fallacy (in fact its the other way around) - but nevertheless Bitcoin is currently inflating at a 12.5% yearly rate, and what miners do with those newly minted coints has inevitably an impact on price.

I believe that there will be lots of newly minted coins hitting the exchanges in late 2013, will just wait and see.

EDIT: in fewer words, wether miners decide to speculate (holding) or to pay for their fiat costs (selling the coins for good) has inevitably an immediate impact on price.

this is like concentrating on only one of your girlfriends butt cheaks, you know very well what the counter argument is.

Inflation rate of 12.5%, how is that even a point?

That's the fifth year in Bitcoin Survival= even if we assume linear and not exponential spread in bitcoin awareness, that's 20% more people using and storing value in BTC.

-7.5%

I love this bears latching onto a miners value case- they attribute psychological values wherever they please... when the price rose it was because everyone wanted to buy btc to buy asicminers, but asicminer wasn't selling his btc, even though 'asicminer is running it as a business' like they like to say whenever it suits them. suddenly asicminer and all the miners want to sell all their coins and only if the price dips, which is when they panic and drive the price further.

What about last year, when inflation rate was 25%, how come the price went up 1000%... and the year before when it was 40%, why did it go up 1000%? frankly if miners drive price I'm surprised it isn't at -0.1 cent

He didn't say difficulty drives price, he said it has a non negligible influence.  Your numbers seem to support that.  That said, I agree that counting on miners to sell out is a horrible assumption.

During the bear market in 2011 supply exceeded demand at a certain point and obviously the exchange rate tanked, and obviously the miners also had their role in that. What I never said is that miners were the ones causing the bear market, the bear market was caused by the bubble pop, and I just think that the same conditions can be met this year.

What a lot of rubbish. You haven't seen anything, you're just a bear and you've been jumping on bearish reasonings for ages.

All this aggressivity towards bearish opinions is amusing and quite telling. I'm not "jumping" on anything, I write what I see. If I'm mistaken and the price goes only UP from here, I will be very happy, I guarantee you that.

[1714971793]

1714971793

[Frozenlock]

I believe they call this stage 'denial'

A friendly reminder from a 2011 survivor.

I'll say again:

Weeeeee....

They never listen... 

[MoreFun]

Thanks Frozenlock again for 2011 charts.
Weeee.... to da _______ (moon?)

[ChartBuddy]

[adamstgBit]

Price isn't driven by miners, but by traders and commodity speculation as has been amply demonstrated elsewhere.

This.

It's obvious that price is not driven by difficulty, but inflation does have an impact on price - at this stage inflation in BTC its non negligible, and its in fact built into the system to pay for the work and costs of mining during the early days of Bitcoin. Thus, looking at growing difficulty and expecting growing price is a fallacy (in fact its the other way around) - but nevertheless Bitcoin is currently inflating at a 12.5% yearly rate, and what miners do with those newly minted coints has inevitably an impact on price.

I believe that there will be lots of newly minted coins hitting the exchanges in late 2013, will just wait and see.

EDIT: in fewer words, wether miners decide to speculate (holding) or to pay for their fiat costs (selling the coins for good) has inevitably an immediate impact on price.

this is like concentrating on only one of your girlfriends butt cheaks, you know very well what the counter argument is.

Inflation rate of 12.5%, how is that even a point?

That's the fifth year in Bitcoin Survival= even if we assume linear and not exponential spread in bitcoin awareness, that's 20% more people using and storing value in BTC.

-7.5%

I love this bears latching onto a miners value case- they attribute psychological values wherever they please... when the price rose it was because everyone wanted to buy btc to buy asicminers, but asicminer wasn't selling his btc, even though 'asicminer is running it as a business' like they like to say whenever it suits them. suddenly asicminer and all the miners want to sell all their coins and only if the price dips, which is when they panic and drive the price further.

What about last year, when inflation rate was 25%, how come the price went up 1000%... and the year before when it was 40%, why did it go up 1000%? frankly if miners drive price I'm surprised it isn't at -0.1 cent

He didn't say difficulty drives price, he said it has a non negligible influence.  Your numbers seem to support that.  That said, I agree that counting on miners to sell out is a horrible assumption.

During the bear market in 2011 supply exceeded demand at a certain point and obviously the exchange rate tanked, and obviously the miners also had their role in that. What I never said is that miners were the ones causing the bear market, the bear market was caused by the bubble pop, and I just think that the same conditions can be met this year.

What a lot of rubbish. You haven't seen anything, you're just a bear and you've been jumping on bearish reasonings for ages.

All this aggressivity towards bearish opinions is amusing and quite telling. I'm not "jumping" on anything, I write what I see. If I'm mistaken and the price goes only UP from here, I will be very happy, I guarantee you that.

The  2011 bear market was not caused by the bubble pop. I was there, the situation today is profoundly different, you'll have to take my word for it I do not have the time to go in to detail.

Its going up to 180 before we see any dumps worth talking about, I have no doubt.

[marvinrouge]

bear trap


(or bull trap?)

[spooderman]

Price isn't driven by miners, but by traders and commodity speculation as has been amply demonstrated elsewhere.

This.

It's obvious that price is not driven by difficulty, but inflation does have an impact on price - at this stage inflation in BTC its non negligible, and its in fact built into the system to pay for the work and costs of mining during the early days of Bitcoin. Thus, looking at growing difficulty and expecting growing price is a fallacy (in fact its the other way around) - but nevertheless Bitcoin is currently inflating at a 12.5% yearly rate, and what miners do with those newly minted coints has inevitably an impact on price.

I believe that there will be lots of newly minted coins hitting the exchanges in late 2013, will just wait and see.

EDIT: in fewer words, wether miners decide to speculate (holding) or to pay for their fiat costs (selling the coins for good) has inevitably an immediate impact on price.

this is like concentrating on only one of your girlfriends butt cheaks, you know very well what the counter argument is.

Inflation rate of 12.5%, how is that even a point?

That's the fifth year in Bitcoin Survival= even if we assume linear and not exponential spread in bitcoin awareness, that's 20% more people using and storing value in BTC.

-7.5%

I love this bears latching onto a miners value case- they attribute psychological values wherever they please... when the price rose it was because everyone wanted to buy btc to buy asicminers, but asicminer wasn't selling his btc, even though 'asicminer is running it as a business' like they like to say whenever it suits them. suddenly asicminer and all the miners want to sell all their coins and only if the price dips, which is when they panic and drive the price further.

What about last year, when inflation rate was 25%, how come the price went up 1000%... and the year before when it was 40%, why did it go up 1000%? frankly if miners drive price I'm surprised it isn't at -0.1 cent

He didn't say difficulty drives price, he said it has a non negligible influence.  Your numbers seem to support that.  That said, I agree that counting on miners to sell out is a horrible assumption.

During the bear market in 2011 supply exceeded demand at a certain point and obviously the exchange rate tanked, and obviously the miners also had their role in that. What I never said is that miners were the ones causing the bear market, the bear market was caused by the bubble pop, and I just think that the same conditions can be met this year.

What a lot of rubbish. You haven't seen anything, you're just a bear and you've been jumping on bearish reasonings for ages.

All this aggressivity towards bearish opinions is amusing and quite telling. I'm not "jumping" on anything, I write what I see. If I'm mistaken and the price goes only UP from here, I will be very happy, I guarantee you that.

The  2011 bear market was not caused by the bubble pop. I was there, the situation today is profoundly different, you'll have to take my word for it I do not have the time to go in to detail.

Its going up to 180 before we see any dumps worth talking about, I have no doubt.

Ermmmm I'd be interested in hearing those details....

[Loozik]

bear trap


(or bull trap?)

Watch carefully and learn.

[adamstgBit]

Price isn't driven by miners, but by traders and commodity speculation as has been amply demonstrated elsewhere.

This.

It's obvious that price is not driven by difficulty, but inflation does have an impact on price - at this stage inflation in BTC its non negligible, and its in fact built into the system to pay for the work and costs of mining during the early days of Bitcoin. Thus, looking at growing difficulty and expecting growing price is a fallacy (in fact its the other way around) - but nevertheless Bitcoin is currently inflating at a 12.5% yearly rate, and what miners do with those newly minted coints has inevitably an impact on price.

I believe that there will be lots of newly minted coins hitting the exchanges in late 2013, will just wait and see.

EDIT: in fewer words, wether miners decide to speculate (holding) or to pay for their fiat costs (selling the coins for good) has inevitably an immediate impact on price.

this is like concentrating on only one of your girlfriends butt cheaks, you know very well what the counter argument is.

Inflation rate of 12.5%, how is that even a point?

That's the fifth year in Bitcoin Survival= even if we assume linear and not exponential spread in bitcoin awareness, that's 20% more people using and storing value in BTC.

-7.5%

I love this bears latching onto a miners value case- they attribute psychological values wherever they please... when the price rose it was because everyone wanted to buy btc to buy asicminers, but asicminer wasn't selling his btc, even though 'asicminer is running it as a business' like they like to say whenever it suits them. suddenly asicminer and all the miners want to sell all their coins and only if the price dips, which is when they panic and drive the price further.

What about last year, when inflation rate was 25%, how come the price went up 1000%... and the year before when it was 40%, why did it go up 1000%? frankly if miners drive price I'm surprised it isn't at -0.1 cent

He didn't say difficulty drives price, he said it has a non negligible influence.  Your numbers seem to support that.  That said, I agree that counting on miners to sell out is a horrible assumption.

During the bear market in 2011 supply exceeded demand at a certain point and obviously the exchange rate tanked, and obviously the miners also had their role in that. What I never said is that miners were the ones causing the bear market, the bear market was caused by the bubble pop, and I just think that the same conditions can be met this year.

What a lot of rubbish. You haven't seen anything, you're just a bear and you've been jumping on bearish reasonings for ages.

All this aggressivity towards bearish opinions is amusing and quite telling. I'm not "jumping" on anything, I write what I see. If I'm mistaken and the price goes only UP from here, I will be very happy, I guarantee you that.

The  2011 bear market was not caused by the bubble pop. I was there, the situation today is profoundly different, you'll have to take my word for it I do not have the time to go in to detail.

Its going up to 180 before we see any dumps worth talking about, I have no doubt.

Ermmmm I'd be interested in hearing those details....

No time, I'll be back on next week...

I will leave you with this

Back in 2011,  every one thought I was nuts buying more and more as it went down lower and lower... and lower still.

They kept telling, ' me its over, it was a scam ' .... LOL

People are starting to catch on

[ElectricMucus]

We're just in the early phases Adam.

[vokain]

bear trap


(or bull trap?)

Watch carefully and learn.

taking ms. market out to dinner before a night of reciprocating kink?

[Loozik]

bear trap


(or bull trap?)

Watch carefully and learn.

spending a little time at dinner before a night of kink??

I am not sure I understand. I am at war with Engrishhhh language.

[N12]

▲ mtgoxUSD    98.5500    
▲ bitstampUSD    91.7600    
▲ btceUSD    88.2050    

MtGox decoupling further.

[marvinrouge]

bear trap

(or bull trap?)

Watch carefully and learn.

I try to put the piece together

- indecision, no move -> perfect time for a whale to be followed
- whale sell -> price fall to 96
- plancton panic sell -> giving cheap btc to whale
- whale buy -> price rise to 99.5
- plancton panic buy -> buy expensive the same btc they sold 5 minutes ago

 

[ElectricMucus]

That means it's whale mating season.

[ElectricMucus]

▲ mtgoxUSD    98.5500    
▲ bitstampUSD    91.7600    
▲ btceUSD    88.2050    

MtGox decoupling further.

Also BTCchina didn't even twitch. (There bigger than btc-e now)

[Loozik]

bear trap

(or bull trap?)

Watch carefully and learn.

I try to put the piece together

- indecision, no move -> perfect time for a whale to be followed
- whale sell -> price fall to 96
- plancton panic sell -> giving cheap btc to whale
- whale buy -> price rise to 99.5
- plancton panic buy -> buy expensive the same btc they sold 5 minutes ago

 

Well tried, but no.

[vokain]

That means it's whale mating season.

hmm which way is easier to go...hmmmm 

[ChartBuddy]

[marvinrouge]

Well tried, but no.

two whales with opposing interests ?