There's been allot going on, and I've been feeling fairly confident about long-term bullishness, but after a recent conversation with a sceptic, I realised that I haven't got much more than dangerous inductive reasoning to convince anyone that bitcoin will continue to rise another order of magnitude from here. The straight line on that log graph of BTC value since its inception doesn't mean it will carry on growing like that for ever, especially as many factors change as it grows. I've heard talk about VCs getting involved, but haven't really seen much evidence for that other than the Winkie-twins featurette.
Long term bull as well (short to mid term bear) and questions are welcome and needed for the community imo. We are a part of a very complex system, that apparently is breaking down. At the center of this system, I see 2 main things: The control of information and the control of money. Basically, we can say "The control of people via many ways." But, those 2 ways are key. The internet has been easing the first and BTC or something like it, is the 2nd. There is something quite big going on, but,... we are in the eye of the hurricane so to speak, and don't notice it. Though I would not put too much weight on what another says in any one conversation. Look to the larger data set and not that of one person... The VC's are a great point, do they want the price to go up, or perhaps are they ready to double down or ... ;-)
- The principles that 'ensure' its significant value increase seem to depend principally on mass adoption. A start for that is serious big businesses, but they won't adopt something so volatile, and without their adopting it, it will not stabilise other than by transient unconvincing manipulation.
11.5 million
BTC's, rising up to 21 million in roughly 120 years. That is sort of a small amount of "shares". Considering BTC is a multifaceted "thing" (e.g. - currency, commodity, store of worth, protocol, etc.) I would think there aren't enough... But luckily, we have those 8 decimal places. ;-) And the open source to make it 20 when need be. If enough people around the world just used it as a store of wealth the price would be huge (lots of money out there and it is continually being devalued).
We need about 1% of the global money supply to be hugely successful. But, I don't think there is a little bit with BTC. It is either going to be worth 0 or a whole lot. It is hard to envision that as the even horizon is blocking (most of) us out.
- If you want to buy BTC in say, Argentina, I can't imagine anyone wanting to sell BTC for Argentine currency, so I can't see how it could be adopted there by any more than a small privileged group. And I don't really buy into the trickle down effect.
Why is the price of BTC 30%-40% higher (or something like that) in Argentina? Probably partly for the reason you "stated". You are seeing a free market go for what it knows. Also, there are plenty of freedom fighters our there (not to mention some of whom are governments) that can get on a plane with an address full of BTC and go there and either sell them, give them away or some combination of the two...
BTC is revolutionary, we shouldn't lose sight of it. We are not so much talking about a currency competitor. We are talking about a currency that is stateless at a time when corrupt states (most all) are collapsing around the world. Chew on that.
- Post-bubble realisations are certainly quenching allot of the investment hype and get rich quick input, and will do so increasingly in the next few months as people realise that mining is only worth it if you can afford development contracts with a chip manufacturer or the like. And I don't see enough confidence in the market to start a truly sustainable up-trend.
Enjoy the experiment but I have a feeling it will work itself out. Humanity, in part, is depending on it.
I see BTC getting bigger, but I'm beginning to fear that this may be the beginning of its asymptote, as a niche that will always be awesome, but won't get mass adoption leading to $1000+ per BTC without some sort of extreme revolutionary event of the kind our governments are adequately well equipped to prevent.
I guess it depends on how bad the shit gets, how many more wars are started with tax payer dollars that we want nothing to do with, how many more oppressed people just say they have had enough, etc. I get the feeling more and more by reading your questions that you are seeing BTC as JUST an investment. That is sort of like saying an awakened person is spiritual... Well yeah, but...
I'm fairly ignorant on this subject, but so are the 99.9% who haven't gotten on board. So the question is, how can we be certain this will really go allot higher. 200-300, maybe for a while, but 1000?...
Good to see you thinking, it helps all of us. Ignorance that is recognized is not exactly ignorance though, is it?
It is not about higher, it is about adoption. It is about the principal of what it represents and why it is attracting people to it (Don't forget those people who's currency is inflating at 30% a year and who's government does a reboot every 8 years with their currency). Yes, price will be a measure of BTC and even though we are on the "speculation" forum, BTC is sooooo much more than an investment and to talk about it just like that trivializes it, much like porn trivializes sex. The investment part will "reveal" itself, but we are changing history. Perhaps not just with BTC, but with what it is, what is developing from it, and what it becomes.
There are many facets to this diamond and if we only look at a part of it, we are sort of missing the picture.
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