Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

This might for 6 months be known as the "the chance you had to sell at the top of that bulltrap" but I can't bring myself to do it...

If I was the manipulator, I would lure all the suckers in now, and then drop the bomb with a market order.

The "price per coin sold" times "number of coins possible to sell" is now much higher than at the pop.

Main question - if bitcoin is short term worth this price, no problem. If not, somebody will notice and sell some

The hearing, Bernanke and Doj declarations are not prices imo. These are the best news ever.

Imo thinking within a linear regression paradigm instead of consider what happens in the real world is not optimal.

I agree. People just look at previous charts and try to explain current ones. You have to look at the entire picture. Truck loads of money is pouring into the exchanges. I'm getting more bullish by the hour. Not 100% there, but about 75%.

[windjc]

Oh boy, China is awakening and if Gox breaks through the $700 barrier, we will be getting VERY close to confirming no dead cat bounce.

China is long awake. It's 10am in western europe. So it's late afternoon in china.

I think it's a dead cat bounce. China is struggling -> before it was 200-300$ ahead of GOX, now the gap is smaller then 50$.

Is that what you really think? I whole heartedly disagree for the following reasons.

A. China is currently being arbitraged against the other exchanges.
B. China did not start this rally from $200 - Gox and Stamp did.
C. China lagged slightly behind the rally and then took off way ahead.

In conclusion, China is going to blast off soon. And by "awake", I mean they just started buying again 45 minutes ago. Look at the charts.

A lot of people have money @ BTC China and can't get it out. They transferred their coins there and sold at over 1000$!
They wait till the gap from gox/stamp to btc china closes, buy back @ btc china, transfer the coins and then drop the coins @ gox or stamp

Ha. No they won't. Because the gap is already widening again.

[windjc]

China set to explode on 15 minute chart.

[Rampion]

Poor bears. Pockets full of fiat, feeling sad and lonely because the choo choo train is leaving them behind

Just joking. Huge resistance at $650 on Stamp, BTC1,500 mini-wall (not so mini these days at the current exchange rate) not getting chewed.

For those who took profits in the $670-$700 range (Stamp) these were great moments. I personally managed to sell 10% of my stash at $675, re-bought at $420 and just sold again a few hours ago around $630. Let me add that it was mostly sheer luck, my intention was to just take profits and not to daytrade, but you cannot say no to such an opportunity

Gotta love bitcoin....

[Erdogan]

Every time it's a bigger bubble, bigger losses, and more negative publicity. Which is why they won't buy in.
Which is why they will never buy. Which is why there will never be mass adoption. Which is why Bitcoin will never become all of the things we had hoped it would.

What are you talking about? The 2011 bubble was the biggest bubble of all and those who bought at the top would be sitting on huge profits right now. This drop from $900 to $453 is also peanuts compared to the crash in April, so the bubbles are only getting smaller and the losses as well. There is no such thing as negative publicity for bitcoin.

The only people who bought in 2011 are people who understand Bitcoin.
Again my point is take yourself to a normal person thinking strategy. Okay let me spell it out for you.
You now only have a high school diploma. You work at a factory, walmart, you're a waiter bartender whatever.
You have 3 kids, a tiny house, and a minivan.
You live paycheck to paycheck.
You took your savings ($10,000 or so) you put it into this Bitcoin thing.
Now you have $5000 worth of Bitcoin/savings.
You think they are still holding and hoping?
You think they haven't sold and are screaming and cryin at the top of their lungs I lost half of my life savings Bitcoin is the devil to everyone they know?

This is why it is bad. Because the people investing in bubble rises are people who think they will get rich quick (99% of the population which is why lottery is the most profitable thing for states) and when "healthy corrections" happen it's devastating to the reputation to Bitcoin and the bigger they get and the harder they fall the more negative news and I promise you the 99% don't know, care or believe in BTC technology they believe in their dollar and you Bitcoin took it from them.

So what?

[ag@th0s]

Money hits my exchange
All the bears are in the caves
No 400 dollars coins for lil' ol me?

Haiku!  (well, almost)

I give you license to perfect it ...considering it was born out of my angst of being a day late to grab the cheaper coins.. It sure hurt buying the last on at 619 + fees after seeing the dips over the past week.. Ahh buy and hold.. buy and hold.. remind me to never let the fiat well run dry on the exchanges.. oh shit I gotta make another bill payment before its too late lol

I know that angst, was in a similar dry position and sold a few coins, at profit, but waaay below what I would have got an hour later lol to give me some liquidity. In the short term, there might be one last chance of the bears leaving there caves before the Tsunami of fiat arrives, but who knows?

[Davyd05]

Every time it's a bigger bubble, bigger losses, and more negative publicity. Which is why they won't buy in.
Which is why they will never buy. Which is why there will never be mass adoption. Which is why Bitcoin will never become all of the things we had hoped it would.

What are you talking about? The 2011 bubble was the biggest bubble of all and those who bought at the top would be sitting on huge profits right now. This drop from $900 to $453 is also peanuts compared to the crash in April, so the bubbles are only getting smaller and the losses as well. There is no such thing as negative publicity for bitcoin.

The only people who bought in 2011 are people who understand Bitcoin.
Again my point is take yourself to a normal person thinking strategy. Okay let me spell it out for you.
You now only have a high school diploma. You work at a factory, walmart, you're a waiter bartender whatever.
You have 3 kids, a tiny house, and a minivan.
You live paycheck to paycheck.
You took your savings ($10,000 or so) you put it into this Bitcoin thing.
Now you have $5000 worth of Bitcoin/savings.
You think they are still holding and hoping?
You think they haven't sold and are screaming and cryin at the top of their lungs I lost half of my life savings Bitcoin is the devil to everyone they know?

This is why it is bad. Because the people investing in bubble rises are people who think they will get rich quick (99% of the population which is why lottery is the most profitable thing for states) and when "healthy corrections" happen it's devastating to the reputation to Bitcoin and the bigger they get and the harder they fall the more negative news and I promise you the 99% don't know, care or believe in BTC technology they believe in their dollar and you Bitcoin took it from them.

So what?

First rule of investing.. don't invest what you can't lose...these people get little sympathy for panic sells. Not that I would wish panic sells on anyone.

[neutrinox]

Many people are modeling the current situation based on the April crash. That of course would make the current bounce a bull trap.

I think we need to remember that the situation is very very different at the moment. April was basically "okay, bitcoin just died" for many. This time I think pretty much everyone is confident that bitcoin is here to stay. Nobody is really scared that their bitcoins will suddenly become worthless. This wasn't the case after the April crash.

The question is not anymore "will bitcoin make it". Bitcoin has already made it. It has already become a massive success story.

[NewLiberty]

Oh boy, China is awakening and if Gox breaks through the $700 barrier, we will be getting VERY close to confirming no dead cat bounce.

Very interesting to see what happens here. Wall is building at $700 so I do not think this is going to be easy. How quickly we move through this resistance will let us ALOT about where and how fast we are going.

Back to the trend line... carry on.

[gandhibt]

One thing that I have to say when reading this "bitcoin online bar" is that if you have a lot of bitcoins it surely doesn't mean that you would know something more about trading than those who have fewer. Somebody could have just bought when they were cheap and never traded or somebody could even traded few good trades with huge luck, but +10k BTC surely doesn't make you genius automatically...

BTW. seems so far a lot more like quick recovery from correction than big rebound from crash. As I said =D

EDIT. It could form that triangle and go little bit lower before breaking it up

[windjc]

One thing that I have to say when reading this "bitcoin online bar" is that if you have a lot of bitcoins it surely doesn't mean that you would know something more about trading than those who have fewer. Somebody could have just bought when they were cheap and never traded or somebody could even traded few good trades with huge luck, but +10k BTC surely doesn't make you genius automatically...

BTW. seems so far a lot more like quick recovery from correction than big rebound from crash. As I said =D

Yeah, I am pretty sure this is a correction. A breather.  If we go parabolic again in a few weeks its going to redefine epic.

[gandhibt]

One thing that I have to say when reading this "bitcoin online bar" is that if you have a lot of bitcoins it surely doesn't mean that you would know something more about trading than those who have fewer. Somebody could have just bought when they were cheap and never traded or somebody could even traded few good trades with huge luck, but +10k BTC surely doesn't make you genius automatically...

BTW. seems so far a lot more like quick recovery from correction than big rebound from crash. As I said =D

Yeah, I am pretty sure this is a correction. A breather.  If we go parabolic again in a few weeks its going to redefine epic.

It could form triangle and go little bit lower before breaking it up

[rpietila]

Many people are modeling the current situation based on the April crash. That of course would make the current bounce a bull trap.

I think we need to remember that the situation is very very different at the moment. April was basically "okay, bitcoin just died" for many. This time I think pretty much everyone is confident that bitcoin is here to stay. Nobody is really scared that their bitcoins will suddenly become worthless. This wasn't the case after the April crash.

The question is not anymore "will bitcoin make it". Bitcoin has already made it. It has already become a massive success story.

This time it's different. This time, it's so different.

[windjc]

Many people are modeling the current situation based on the April crash. That of course would make the current bounce a bull trap.

I think we need to remember that the situation is very very different at the moment. April was basically "okay, bitcoin just died" for many. This time I think pretty much everyone is confident that bitcoin is here to stay. Nobody is really scared that their bitcoins will suddenly become worthless. This wasn't the case after the April crash.

The question is not anymore "will bitcoin make it". Bitcoin has already made it. It has already become a massive success story.

This time it's different. This time, it's so different.

This time is different.

Everytime is a little bit different.

  (p.s. I'm really not trying to antagonize you. I just disagree a lot with you today.)

[Joenaes]

Just saying:

Gox at $666, BtcChina at 4444CNY.

The end is near.

[maz]

This is why it is bad. Because the people investing in bubble rises are people who think they will get rich quick (99% of the population which is why lottery is the most profitable thing for states) and when "healthy corrections" happen it's devastating to the reputation to Bitcoin and the bigger they get and the harder they fall the more negative news and I promise you the 99% don't know, care or believe in BTC technology they believe in their dollar and you Bitcoin took it from them.

Then that's fine. These people epitomize greed, which is why bitcoin was invented, to release common people from the greed of bankers and their likes. Do I care that greedy people get burned on bitcoin's journey to becoming revolutionary? Not a bit.

[PrymeTyme]

Oh boy, China is awakening and if Gox breaks through the $700 barrier, we will be getting VERY close to confirming no dead cat bounce.

Very interesting to see what happens here. Wall is building at $700 so I do not think this is going to be easy. How quickly we move through this resistance will let us ALOT about where and how fast we are going.

Back to the trend line... carry on.

Based on this chart , one thing is for sure , buying into weakness is the way to go !!

just look at the high volume bars , all of them happen on declines (sell offs) but someone is holding the bag ! .. effort vs. result ?

this is grrrreat

[Pruden]

We are at 50% of the $900->$450 correction. Just like we were at $165 on the 24th of April, when the second bear run started. This is not over until we go above 700$.

[PrymeTyme]

We are at 50% of the $900->$450 correction. Just like we were at $165 on the 24th of April, when the second bear run started. This is not over until we go above 700$.

actually 750 and 900 ...

[windjc]

We are at 50% of the $900->$450 correction. Just like we were at $165 on the 24th of April, when the second bear run started. This is not over until we go above 700$.

I agree. However went (690) $245 above the low and $210 below the high.  So a bit more than 50%.