Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[CryptStorm]

China is not following. The arbitrage is quickly closing. What happens next is that arbitrageurs buy back in China and sell the equivalent in Bitstamp. At least I will do that

Did you sell @ over 1100 @ BTCChina?

Do you buy back in China when Stamp/Gox are at the same level or before (say 770 bitstamp - 820 BTCChina)?

Arbitrage is best when the price differential is the highest. I got more than 50%.

Looking at 6 month chart, China has equalled Bitstamp about half of the time. I see no reason to pay any premium this way.

It is a little bit tricky to do it calmly, because in my case there is overall position management, swing trading and arbitrage all working together. It is like a requirement to think with 3 different brains simultaneously.

Nice work, I know you're in multiple exchanges too. And you're doing this manually? If so, might I suggest heading towards something a bit more automated, at some point-- I can't imagine trying to manually handle arb across the exchanges. However, it sounds like a good idea for me to cancel my arb strategy as I see it dissolving in front of my eyes. Not like you need advice on making dough.

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[CryptStorm]

price held up while i was sleeping

its going to 3000$ boys,  and it won't stop there... sell your gold!
 
 

Yeah, I put bids pretty far down the ladder-- really sad they didn't get filled. I'm with you on this one... triple digits may be going away soon. It's so hard to keep up with the psychology of the big numbers.

[Rampion]

Given the fact that bitstamp is the only exchange serving USD withdrawals reliably, id say that the US is feeling bullish after the Senate hearings. It will be interesting when we couple with BTCChina.

The mother of all Bitcoin bubbles is not here yet, but you can start to smell it.

[gandhibt]

This loan thing is depending what is the situation. It's dumb to say that investing loaned money is absolutely wrong or that it's right. Many people spend rest of their lives in debt hell and investing some of that to bitcoin might be the way to get rid of that debt. There's risk but you have to calculate those risks based on your situation.

When you're in a hole, dig faster?

Maybe you can do a 180 curve while digging and get out of that hole.

This is why so many poor people buy lottery tickets...

Yeah, but there's smaller risks in bitcoin than in lottery. All decision in life have risks, important thing is to try to learn them. Good way of not learning these risks is to obey some principle like "don't ever invest loaned money" and not thinking why?

[ChartBuddy]

[YoYa]

786 is key resistance! Need the breakthrough before the moon, them rockets don't build themselves you know.

[gandhibt]

This loan thing is depending what is the situation. It's dumb to say that investing loaned money is absolutely wrong or that it's right. Many people spend rest of their lives in debt hell and investing some of that to bitcoin might be the way to get rid of that debt. There's risk but you have to calculate those risks based on your situation.

When you're in a hole, dig faster?

Maybe you can do a 180 curve while digging and get out of that hole.

I see what  you did there ... that sounds a lot like a tunnel  

It's a bitcoin tunnel and there's a rainbow at the end =D

[alexeft]

Is this a massive breakout trying to happen? Anyone?

Looks like it. Let's see what happens when the $800 wall goes down.

[Davyd05]

China is not following. The arbitrage is quickly closing. What happens next is that arbitrageurs buy back in China and sell the equivalent in Bitstamp. At least I will do that

Did you sell @ over 1100 @ BTCChina?

Do you buy back in China when Stamp/Gox are at the same level or before (say 770 bitstamp - 820 BTCChina)?

Arbitrage is best when the price differential is the highest. I got more than 50%.

Looking at 6 month chart, China has equalled Bitstamp about half of the time. I see no reason to pay any premium this way.

It is a little bit tricky to do it calmly, because in my case there is overall position management, swing trading and arbitrage all working together. It is like a requirement to think with 3 different brains simultaneously.

Nice work, I know you're in multiple exchanges too. And you're doing this manually? If so, might I suggest heading towards something a bit more automated, at some point-- I can't imagine trying to manually handle arb across the exchanges. However, it sounds like a good idea for me to cancel my arb strategy as I see it dissolving in front of my eyes. Not like you need advice on making dough.

Say you have.. x fiat in x exchange with the lowest rate per fiat/btc .. at y exchange the price is highest per fiat/btc you sell and transfer fiat on home.. you re enter market in x exchange i'd assume at the same time or before and arbitrage is complete? your gonna wait on the fiat to wire over from y but to your bank.. but your positions have increased in fiat and btc. Or so my sleepless logic believes.

[Salivan]

I think we're at or approaching 1 tx a second.. so we need 7x as many were getting now before we start to worry about that.

Imagine the utopian mass adoption that's being fed to the public.

Take a small country (or a large American city) with about 15 million inhabitants, or 5 million households.
Every household will have to do groceries about each other day, so that's 2.5 million customers in supermarkets each day countrywide.
Day has 24 hours, so that's 104166 transactions per hour
= 29 transactions per second

And this is for one small country only, for only the basic needs (food), and that's already 4 times what the Bitcoin network can physically handle.

You're not going to convince me that the Bitcoin protocol will ever be able to sustain a world economy for day-to-day transactions.

Hence why I'll always be bearish, even though it's a great market to profit from atm.

Nonsense. Only a retard would think that a block-chain based currency is efficient for day-by-day purchases as grocery shopping.

As warchwoord said 1MB max block hard limit was placed BY DESIGN. The point of BTC is the universal ledger and the possibility for everyone to run a full node. It's meant to be a safe and decentralized way to store and transfer value (among other things), not to be a micro payment network competing with Visa or PayPal.

99% of BTC economy is driven by investors and speculators, what makes you think that it has to change at some point? You don't buy groceries with gold neither.

I still  think that something like mirrored system based on effectively dead bitcoin address is  possible. Lost  coins could gain value in this mirrored universe but  with  different  properties. thus may  be  useful for dust operations

[Richy_T]

Yeah, but there's smaller risks in bitcoin than in lottery. All decision in life have risks, important thing is to try to learn them. Good way of not learning these risks is to obey some principle like "don't ever invest loaned money" and not thinking why?

Better to learn from the mistakes of others than your own.

[Coinseeker]

Still with 7 transactions per second being the hard cap limit, I will always have a big bear in me telling me this will never grow out to compete with credit card companies. And also this issue can't be fixed.

You're wrong on more than one point. But I understand you're probably just trying to talk the price down, so cheers!

This!

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-switch/wp/2013/11/12/bitcoin-needs-to-scale-by-a-factor-of-1000-to-compete-with-visa-heres-how-to-do-it/

Sounds like the centralization of Bitcoin around large mining farms will soon be complete.  Doesn't really sound like anything to be cheering.  

[bitcoinbible]

price held up while i was sleeping

its going to 3000$ boys,  and it won't stop there... sell your gold!
 
 

i read the wsj article where someone valued his 8 BTC as 8 MILLION by next November!!!   ..needless to say i'm holding to $10,000+ lol

[gandhibt]

Yeah, but there's smaller risks in bitcoin than in lottery. All decision in life have risks, important thing is to try to learn them. Good way of not learning these risks is to obey some principle like "don't ever invest loaned money" and not thinking why?

Better to learn from the mistakes of others than your own.

Either way you always have to understand why if you want to learn.

[Davyd05]

Yeah, but there's smaller risks in bitcoin than in lottery. All decision in life have risks, important thing is to try to learn them. Good way of not learning these risks is to obey some principle like "don't ever invest loaned money" and not thinking why?

Better to learn from the mistakes of others than your own.

this one time my friend tried to navigate through trees on a gt snow racer.. lets just say.. concussion + lost of teeth... has never been an issue of mine.

[CryptStorm]

China is not following. The arbitrage is quickly closing. What happens next is that arbitrageurs buy back in China and sell the equivalent in Bitstamp. At least I will do that

Did you sell @ over 1100 @ BTCChina?

Do you buy back in China when Stamp/Gox are at the same level or before (say 770 bitstamp - 820 BTCChina)?

Arbitrage is best when the price differential is the highest. I got more than 50%.

Looking at 6 month chart, China has equalled Bitstamp about half of the time. I see no reason to pay any premium this way.

It is a little bit tricky to do it calmly, because in my case there is overall position management, swing trading and arbitrage all working together. It is like a requirement to think with 3 different brains simultaneously.

Nice work, I know you're in multiple exchanges too. And you're doing this manually? If so, might I suggest heading towards something a bit more automated, at some point-- I can't imagine trying to manually handle arb across the exchanges. However, it sounds like a good idea for me to cancel my arb strategy as I see it dissolving in front of my eyes. Not like you need advice on making dough.

Say you have.. x fiat in x exchange with the lowest rate per fiat/btc .. at y exchange the price is highest per fiat/btc you sell and transfer fiat on home.. you re enter market in x exchange i'd assume at the same time or before and arbitrage is complete? your gonna wait on the fiat to wire over from y but to your bank.. but your positions have increased in fiat and btc. Or so my sleepless logic believes.

Just break the ideas apart. 1) Have balances in multiple exchanges, arb (simultaneous buy and sell) when the prices are appropriately profitable-- diff minus slippage & fees... 2) every once in x you would need to rebalance the portfolios.  It's #2 that's still more difficult IMO

[CryptStorm]

price held up while i was sleeping

its going to 3000$ boys,  and it won't stop there... sell your gold!
 
 

i read the wsj article where someone valued his 8 BTC as 8 MILLION by next November!!!   ..needless to say i'm holding to $10,000+ lol

WTF???  Link or it didn't happen.

[Realtimez]

Anyone knows what is the thought for the bitcoin to go to enormous rates (like 5k or 10k) per BTC?

I mean there are already cryptocoins following bitcoins and these can also be added as a way of payment in various ecommerce and such.

Or maybe there is something more to these than ecommerce?

[Boxman90]

Boxman90, this might help ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZp7UGgBR0I

Not sure if your intention is to argue for or against me, but that exactly shows why the 7 tps limit is by design (thus should not be removed to ensure decentralization, another key point in bitcoin design) and makes it impossible for it to compete with credit card companies.

[Davyd05]

Boxman90, this might help ...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cZp7UGgBR0I

Not sure if your intention is to argue for or against me, but that exactly shows why the 7 tps limit is by design (thus should not be removed to ensure decentralization, another key point in bitcoin design) and makes it impossible for it to compete with credit card companies.

I speculate the argument goes no where. But hypothesize that.. the bears are sitting in the tree line whale spotting