Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[libity]

Bitstamp's on it's way to a new ATH, whereas Gox is still battling around the 750 mark... good time to transfer from Gox to Stamp?

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[BitPirate]

Bitstamp's on it's way to a new ATH, whereas Gox is still battling around the 750 mark... good time to transfer from Gox to Stamp?

Maybe the reason it's like that is because you're not the only one 

[wildbud]

Someone just posted a huge wall ...

[Parazyd]

Bitstamp's on it's way to a new ATH, whereas Gox is still battling around the 750 mark... good time to transfer from Gox to Stamp?

You won't be dealing with GoxBux, that's for sure.

[macsga]

Someone just posted a huge wall ...

Must be rpietila 

[maz]

If we go crazy from here (we are already well above/ahead of the long-term trend), the inevitable result is crash...

It still surprises me, for someone with such insight and the math as you have, that you're seeing an inevitability to the future based on what has been.  You talk of the 'long-term trend' as if we know what it will be.  We only know what it has been to date and looking at the 'S-curved chart' as described so beautifully by James G. Angelo in what both you and he (and I) see as the early days it is volatile and there is much random unpredictable noise such that the formula defining the curve is very difficult to ascertain - especially with the gradient of the curve being so shallow at this juncture (yes, even at current growth in comparison with potential).  Surely we will only be able to give the S-curve its formula after the event?  Whilst your current calculations and projections may after the removal of noise turn out to be 100% correct I would venture it is a lot more likely to be incorrect, possibly by quite a lot.  There is a danger in having the understanding you do of math that you get to believe what is to come will nicely follow your formula.

Always remember:  This is Bitcoin - there is no inevitability!!!

Thanks for the youtube link, that is a great video!

Is it generally accepted that we are at the bottom of the vertical at the moment?

[bitcodo]

Why he didn't pay the fee?
Why 4,569 and not 6,000?

https://blockchain.info/tx/a289ea76bcc396412e90d63b90eb462ea2adb326aa027d5a1bb8864c7c152012

[Parazyd]

I've just discovered a new scheme to get rich quickly. Just listen to rpietila advices and then do opposite as he says.

Btw. CHOO CHOO!!!

[Ivanhoe]

That Kraken clown finally removed his wall. Think he is going to try his luck on another exhange

[rpietila]

Risto, when do you plan to buy back at a loss - or you already did? (please bear with me )

It is not that simple

- "My" holdings are held through multiple organizations, which also have other stockholders, and they all have their different targets for investment allocation.

- Then there are arbitrage, OTC, and exchange operations that require fiat capital and are more profitable when there is high volatility, prompting to have more fiat at those times since it generates more BTC as the arbitrages are juicier (while also providing hedge against catastrophic loss when most needed).

- Then there is our family target of having a balanced allocation of crypto, precious metals, RE and other. Since crypto is the only one that tends to appreciate, if I sell too much and the price-chasing does not work, the situation corrects itself naturally and soon I am again looking for a new bubble to sell into.

=> If I make a move, I do it based on thorough analysis (thousands of lines of Excel data and hours of analysis before this one), have considered all the possible outcomes and assessed the probabilities, found a positive expected value (where the value function is a complex aggregate of all the goals of the different actors whose wealth I manage) and a bearable worst case. Then I see how it unfolds, and pocket the profit or loss according to the plan.

If bitcoin goes up, it is a profit really, because it opens up new opportunities to influence the world to the better. Also in this case it rewards us with a 7-figure fiat position.

If it goes down, then my greatest pleasure is that my market analysis was correct, and I also get to cash out a small amount of fiat, and keep the bitcoin count the same or even slightly increase it. So this is also profit.

With bitcoin, you cannot actually lose, that is the beauty of it    

[macsga]

Economy

Total BTC   12,022,725 BTC
Market Cap
based on latest prices
7,688,532,638 USD
or 6,588,453,300 EUR
or 23,708,813,700 PLN
or 5,470,339,875 GBP


People are...

[rpietila]

Someone just posted a huge wall ...

Must be rpietila 

I will strike when you least expect it. Hint: saturday night.

[Rampion]

Risto, when do you plan to buy back at a loss - or you already did? (please bear with me )

It is not that simple

- "My" holdings are held through multiple organizations, which also have other stockholders, and they all have their different targets for investment allocation.

- Then there are arbitrage, OTC, and exchange operations that require fiat capital and are more profitable when there is high volatility, prompting to have more fiat at those times since it generates more BTC as the arbitrages are juicier (while also providing hedge against catastrophic loss when most needed).

- Then there is our family target of having a balanced allocation of crypto, precious metals, RE and other. Since crypto is the only one that tends to appreciate, if I sell too much and the price-chasing does not work, the situation corrects itself naturally and soon I am again looking for a new bubble to sell into.

=> If I make a move, I do it based on thorough analysis (thousands of lines of Excel data and hours of analysis before this one), have considered all the possible outcomes and assessed the probabilities, found a positive expected value (where the value function is a complex aggregate of all the goals of the different actors whose wealth I manage) and a bearable worst case. Then I see how it unfolds, and pocket the profit or loss according to the plan.

If bitcoin goes up, it is a profit really, because it opens up new opportunities to influence the world to the better. Also in this case it rewards us with a 7-figure fiat position.

If it goes down, then my greatest pleasure is that my market analysis was correct, and I also get to cash out a small amount of fiat, and keep the bitcoin count the same or even slightly increase it. So this is also profit.

With bitcoin, you cannot actually lose, that is the beauty of it    

A 7 figures fiat-position is just 2k coins ATM. In January this year, 2k BTC was just $40k

BTW: Bitstamp bulls are preparing the assault to ATH ($750). Grabbing popcorn.

[macsga]

Someone just posted a huge wall ...

Must be rpietila 

I will strike when you least expect it. Hint: saturday night.

I will be there watching and holding tightly my BTCs

[bitcodo]

Why he didn't pay the fee?
Why 4,569 and not 6,000?

https://blockchain.info/tx/a289ea76bcc396412e90d63b90eb462ea2adb326aa027d5a1bb8864c7c152012

Never mind, it's SecondMarket Bitcoin Investment Trust.

[rpietila]

A 7 figures fiat-position is just 2k coins ATM. In January this year, 2k BTC was just $40k

In 30% of cases, a number has "1" as the most significant digit, in all other cases it is one of the other 8 digits(, you serf).

[bitjoint]

That's ATH in bids - and we are breaking an ATH in bids every day.

Engines warming up? Rocket about to ignite to the moon?

[kurious]

Anyone here know if Coinfloor will open up the London GBP exchange - was suppose to be 5th Nov, but I think software 'fireworks' screwed it up...

Currently re-evaluating software - but no news just now.

Be good to see a proper London Exchange, will help bring a lot of GBP into the market.

Anyone know any news?

[gandhibt]

There's resistance, exciting to see how this will unfold

[stereotype]

Anyone here know if Coinfloor will open up the London GBP exchange - was suppose to be 5th Nov, but I think software 'fireworks' screwed it up...

Currently re-evaluating software - but no news just now.

Be good to see a proper London Exchange, will help bring a lot of GBP into the market.

Anyone know any news?

Coinfloor's performance so far has been less than competent, from where im sitting. Shame.