Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[600watt]

Slowly but surely everyone is starting to figure it out. What's happening right now happened before in March. Almost identical charts. One more crazy run-the-train-of-its-rails rally is brewing.  It's going to be epic.

If we go crazy from here (we are already well above/ahead of the long-term trend), the inevitable result is crash. That is the way turbulence works. This makes it relevant to try to estimate the top and the bottom.

My take:
- Top $2200, bottom $475. Before Christmas.

ok, i should try to not buy above 2000 and not sell below 500 then. sounds like a plan.  


edit: i like your figures

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[maz]

Slowly but surely everyone is starting to figure it out. What's happening right now happened before in March. Almost identical charts. One more crazy run-the-train-of-its-rails rally is brewing.  It's going to be epic.

If we go crazy from here (we are already well above/ahead of the long-term trend), the inevitable result is crash. That is the way turbulence works. This makes it relevant to try to estimate the top and the bottom.

My take:
- Top $2200, bottom $475. Before Christmas.

I was following your posts, there is always a crash in your post, each day you post the same prediction, but I see Bitcoin only going higher and the only correction was before and after the senate hearing, look I said correction not crash.

this is not the classic stock market, Bitcoin is unpredictable to its nature, Early adopters get advantage and you never know when some one will cash out a part of their investment, and these charts where you draw lines predicting price they doesn't mean anything and they are based on no scientific or economical ground.

It's bitcoin astrology! When Mar's aligns with Jupter, we go choo-choo. Stop trying to discredit this new type of market analysis damn you!

[windjc]

The daily chart looks gorgeous. It hit the short ema, and then the long ema, and then the short ema again, and now it looks like its making sum cup and handle up the trendline.

You gone bull? confusing me here!

Slowly but surely everyone is starting to figure it out. What's happening right now happened before in March. Almost identical charts. One more crazy run-the-train-of-its-rails rally is brewing.  It's going to be epic.

Yes. This $720 level is starting to look like the $210 level. Launchpad for moon-rocket.

The selling pressure here, however, is much greater than that at the $210 level - so this is giving me mixed feelings.

Pressure on both sides is greater. I give us an 8 1/2 day window. We will be at $1000 sometime before that. And that gives us plenty of time to go in a curvy line to get there.

[thoughtfan]

If we go crazy from here (we are already well above/ahead of the long-term trend), the inevitable result is crash...

It still surprises me, for someone with such insight and the math as you have, that you're seeing an inevitability to the future based on what has been.  You talk of the 'long-term trend' as if we know what it will be.  We only know what it has been to date and looking at the 'S-curved chart' as described so beautifully by James G. Angelo in what both you and he (and I) see as the early days it is volatile and there is much random unpredictable noise such that the formula defining the curve is very difficult to ascertain - especially with the gradient of the curve being so shallow at this juncture (yes, even at current growth in comparison with potential).  Surely we will only be able to give the S-curve its formula after the event?  Whilst your current calculations and projections may after the removal of noise turn out to be 100% correct I would venture it is a lot more likely to be incorrect, possibly by quite a lot.  There is a danger in having the understanding you do of math that you get to believe what is to come will nicely follow your formula.

Always remember:  This is Bitcoin - there is no inevitability!!!

[ChartBuddy]

[Rampion]

Slowly but surely everyone is starting to figure it out. What's happening right now happened before in March. Almost identical charts. One more crazy run-the-train-of-its-rails rally is brewing.  It's going to be epic.

If we go crazy from here (we are already well above/ahead of the long-term trend), the inevitable result is crash. That is the way turbulence works. This makes it relevant to try to estimate the top and the bottom.

My take:
- Top $2200, bottom $475. Before Christmas.

Sounds good

I see a lot of controlled profit taking around $700 (stamp), and not a hint of fear/panic. Consolidation at $700? Will a big holder crap his pants and market sell a couple thousands of coins? Will a big investor do the opposite?

Almost 50/50 chances for everything. Fasten your seat belts and place your bid and asks, gentlemen

[niothor]

Again and again , why does it have to either crash or go to the moon , can't it have a week of relaxation around this comfy 700 price?

[rpietila]

If we go crazy from here (we are already well above/ahead of the long-term trend), the inevitable result is crash. That is the way turbulence works. This makes it relevant to try to estimate the top and the bottom.

My take:
- Top $2200, bottom $475. Before Christmas.

I was following your posts, there is always a crash in your post, each day you post the same prediction,

(emphases mine)


Man, Bitcoin distorts your sense of time beyond remedy...  

My first bearish post was this:

I have also increased the odds that we are in a bubble correction to about 75%. That said, I expect the following things happen:

- Lowest recorded trade will be in $2XX range, bigger volume around $300.
- It will take only 3-6 months to regain the old highs.
- Volume will all the time be lower than in previous situations, there is no widespread panic or general capitulation

Two bubbles in 2013   Who could have thought...

Beating the yesterday's intraday high (BS: $640, Gox: $750, BTCC: $1000) makes me increase the odds that this is just a weekly consolidation. Every day in declining trend erodes the new investor confidence and induces more and more sales from the earlier investor community.

Check the timestamp - it is 43 hours ago. Not even 2 days!

I previously was a bear for less than 2 days when the April bubble initially popped (correctly), then a short time at $48 last March (failed), a little bearish before the final capitulation in June (correctly), and during all of the bear market in 2011 (correctly, with stellar results). Even if this one proves to be false, I still have 60% track record. (52% is enough to make money, needless to say that the majority is not even close).

Even if I am wrong on this one, I will admit it latest next Monday. This leaves maximum about 10 days (out of 1000) that I have been a bitcoin bear with no reason. 1% of the time. Bear with it.

Back in the old days I was selling silver for bitcoins, and one shipment had delivery issues. A well-respected forum member started to pressure me via private message during a weekend. After several messages, I made a quick decision to refund him the order, since I decided I could not repair his broken time perception. (In the real world, sorting out a possible delivery problem with international postal services does not happen during weekend/night hours. Even the company of mine that was doing the shipping is 100% offline and unreachable until Monday 9 am, and it is in a different country than me. But telling the guy to wait a reasonable "2 weeks" would possibly have escalated the situation)

[Rampion]

Again and again , why does it have to either crash or go to the moon , can't it have a week of relaxation around this comfy 700 price?

Because this is Bitcoin

[TERA]

Something like this?

[Rampion]

Holy shit.

$33M bids on Gox. $14.65M bids on Bitstamp.

That's ATH in bids - and we are breaking an ATH in bids every day.

Engines warming up? Rocket about to ignite to the moon?

Risto, when do you plan to buy back at a loss - or you already did? (please bear with me )

[alexeft]

Again and again , why does it have to either crash or go to the moon , can't it have a week of relaxation around this comfy 700 price?

I suggest you get some sleep 

[wachtwoord]

(In the real world, sorting out a possible delivery problem with international postal services does not happen during weekend/night hours. Even the company of mine that was doing the shipping is 100% offline and unreachable until Monday 9 am, and it is in a different country than me. But telling the guy to wait a reasonable "2 weeks" would possibly have escalated the situation)

So who's crazy? Us, or the guys in the "real world"?

[niothor]

Again and again , why does it have to either crash or go to the moon , can't it have a week of relaxation around this comfy 700 price?

I suggest you get some sleep 

I just wake up .
And unlike most of people here I couldn't care about those bumps , call me when it hits 10k.

[niothor]

Again and again , why does it have to either crash or go to the moon , can't it have a week of relaxation around this comfy 700 price?

Because this is Bitcoin

Bitcoin price derives from human actions , can't you all take 24(h) off ?
It's morning , raining , no coffee , and in this situation price movements aren't as funny as they were.

[Rampion]

[Parazyd]

Pretty stable upwards trend on Bitstamp

[Wekkel]

This is the beginning of something epic.

[macsga]

After HUGE public demand I present you a detailed graphic analysis of what just happened:

Our Economic tech. dept. has a legit prediction of what's going to follow:

^^^^
THIS!

[ChartBuddy]