Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[SheHadMANHands]

Movement north, followed by a brief "aha" relief.  Now everyone is watching.

Basically (NSFW):
http://stream1.gifsoup.com/webroot/animatedgifs1/3170507_o.gif

[DDreez]

Is there anyone here who's been able to withdraw through SEPA from Gox? If so, how long did it take?

Got on e through earlier this week that had taken about six weeks.

[windjc]

When the crash comes, I think not many in the forum is buying. After going to $2k and crashing to $1k, would you really buy? Everybody is shitless by then. It is completely at the mercy of the new money then.

If it goes to 2k and sets up a correction situation and I sell, yes, absolutely I would buy back at 1k. Also, if looking at the history of BTC,  if I had fresh capital I would DEFINITELY invest at 1, because BTC has always and will always (for a while) retrace its previous highs. So by going to 2k, its proof to me that it will go back to 2k. Kind of like muscle memory.

So 1k would be a better investment then than even now, imo.

[Vycid]

When the crash comes, I think not many in the forum is buying. After going to $2k and crashing to $1k, would you really buy? Everybody is shitless by then. It is completely at the mercy of the new money then.

I think you're not understanding the situation of the average forum-goer.

For me (and I would assume many others on this forum) Bitcoin has made itself the majority of my portfolio.

Considering you are the one that goes on about "80%" investment in Bitcoin, you should understand why I am not inclined to continue buying with fiat beyond 90% (although I have considered it).

As always most of the money coming into the system is not from individuals already on the forum, simply because we do not have much more money to spend in relation to our bitcoin holdings!

[windjc]

When the crash comes, I think not many in the forum is buying. After going to $2k and crashing to $1k, would you really buy? Everybody is shitless by then. It is completely at the mercy of the new money then.

I think you're not understanding the situation of the average forum-goer.

For me (and I would assume many others on this forum) Bitcoin has made itself the majority of my portfolio.

Considering you are the one that goes on about "80%" investment in Bitcoin, you should understand why I am not inclined to continue buying with fiat beyond 90% (although I have considered it!).

As always most of the money coming into the system is not from individuals already on the forum, simply because we do not have much more money to spend in relation to our bitcoin holdings!

I agree. The argument that most or a large part of the new money is "additional" investment is probably his weakest argument.

LOOK AROUND - bitcoin news is one of the largest trending financial news story of the last month IN THE WORLD. Yes, the entire world. Probably top 10 financial new stories this last month.

A small % of the 6.5 billion humans on the planet that were not early adopters are investing in bitcoin. That is where the new money is coming from.

More new money is coming in next week by the way. Which is why the market will continue to go up next week too. This is not rocket science guys.

EDIT: by the way, if anyone doubts this obvious reality, check out the original holdings of SecondMarket and compare to their holding now, two months later. Hint, it's up almost 6 fold.

[Vycid]

When the crash comes, I think not many in the forum is buying. After going to $2k and crashing to $1k, would you really buy? Everybody is shitless by then. It is completely at the mercy of the new money then.

I think you're not understanding the situation of the average forum-goer.

For me (and I would assume many others on this forum) Bitcoin has made itself the majority of my portfolio.

Considering you are the one that goes on about "80%" investment in Bitcoin, you should understand why I am not inclined to continue buying with fiat beyond 90% (although I have considered it!).

As always most of the money coming into the system is not from individuals already on the forum, simply because we do not have much more money to spend in relation to our bitcoin holdings!

I agree. The argument that most or a large part of the new money is "additional" investment is probably his weakest argument.

LOOK AROUND - bitcoin news is one of the largest trending financial news story of the last month IN THE WORLD. Yes, the entire world. Probably top 10 financial new stories this last month.

A small % of the 6.5 billion humans on the planet that were not early adopters are investing in bitcoin. That is where the new money is coming from.

More new money is coming in next week by the way. Which is why the market will continue to go up next week too. This is not rocket science guys.

Right. The point has been made - Bitcoin can hit 10k per coin without passing Facebook's market cap.

Ask yourself which one has more potential and you will start to see things a bit more clearly. Everyone understands what Facebook is; not everyone understands what Bitcoin is (or has even heard of it)!

This is changing. Rapidly. Today or tomorrow there will be a big news story about that kid with the "Hi Mom! Send Bitcoin" sign on ESPN game day - and the thousands of dollars that poured in from all over the world from just a QR code on TV.

That will be the first realization for most folks of what Bitcoin is capable of.

Rpietila can afford to sell some coins, because if Bitcoin leaves him behind he has a fucking castle. The rest of us cannot afford to sell.

Mark my words, this is just starting.

[SheHadMANHands]

When the crash comes, I think not many in the forum is buying. After going to $2k and crashing to $1k, would you really buy? Everybody is shitless by then. It is completely at the mercy of the new money then.

I think you're not understanding the situation of the average forum-goer.

For me (and I would assume many others on this forum) Bitcoin has made itself the majority of my portfolio.

Considering you are the one that goes on about "80%" investment in Bitcoin, you should understand why I am not inclined to continue buying with fiat beyond 90% (although I have considered it!).

As always most of the money coming into the system is not from individuals already on the forum, simply because we do not have much more money to spend in relation to our bitcoin holdings!

I agree. The argument that most or a large part of the new money is "additional" investment is probably his weakest argument.

LOOK AROUND - bitcoin news is one of the largest trending financial news story of the last month IN THE WORLD. Yes, the entire world. Probably top 10 financial new stories this last month.

A small % of the 6.5 billion humans on the planet that were not early adopters are investing in bitcoin. That is where the new money is coming from.

More new money is coming in next week by the way. Which is why the market will continue to go up next week too. This is not rocket science guys.

Right. The point has been made - Bitcoin can hit 10k per coin without passing Facebook's market cap.

Ask yourself which one has more potential and you will start to see things a bit more clearly. Everyone understands what Facebook is; not everyone understands what Bitcoin is (or has even heard of it)!

This is changing. Rapidly. Today or tomorrow there will be a big news story about that kid with the "Hi Mom! Send Bitcoin" sign on ESPN game day - and the thousands of dollars that poured in from all over the world from just a QR code on TV.

That will be the first realization for most folks of what Bitcoin is capable of.

Mark my words, this is just starting.

LOL.. likewise (bold).

Reminds me of back in July.  Me and some old college friends ("brahs") were hanging out in Florida as a sort of reunion.  We're all mid-20s still.  I brought up Bitcoin at one point because I was so enthusiastic and excited about it.  The guys kept fcking with me for it the rest of the trip.  I'm a good sport though, and can laugh at myself..  so it was all in good fun.  Inside though, I knew I'd get the last hearty laugh.    

Silence now..  

15x return so far on the "fake money", and no interest in selling.

[traderCJ]

When the crash comes, I think not many in the forum is buying. After going to $2k and crashing to $1k, would you really buy? Everybody is shitless by then. It is completely at the mercy of the new money then.

Are you being serious?  A crash is precisely what 90% of this forum wants.  How many times have I heard people screaming for "cheap coins"?  It's a sign that we all want more coins (faith in BTC's future) but we feel like we didn't quite get enough of them at the price we wanted .. ($0.01)

[beetcoin]

When the crash comes, I think not many in the forum is buying. After going to $2k and crashing to $1k, would you really buy? Everybody is shitless by then. It is completely at the mercy of the new money then.

Are you being serious?  A crash is precisely what 90% of this forum wants.  How many times have I heard people screaming for "cheap coins"?  It's a sign that we all want more coins (faith in BTC's future) but we feel like we didn't quite get enough of them at the price we wanted .. ($0.01)

i choose no sides, but people seem to want a crash to something in the 100's or 200's. at least that's most of what i've seen... which is unreasonable.

[seanneko]

Right. The point has been made - Bitcoin can hit 10k per coin without passing Facebook's market cap.

Ask yourself which one has more potential and you will start to see things a bit more clearly.

So very true. I think this every single time I hear about the "value" of some of these companies.

Instagram was sold not too long ago for many billions of dollars. How the fuck can they possibly expect to turn over a profit? By advertising to 14 year olds who think a grainy photo is cool?

Sometimes I think another dot com bubble is on the way. This is exactly what happened 13-14 years ago - people were throwing insane amounts of money at companies with no real business model (I realise that some bears will probably say the same thing about Bitcoin. It has legitimate potential. So, whatever).

I just hope Bitcoin doesn't get hurt when it all comes down. Maybe the stock market crashing would actually strengthen Bitcoin.

[explorer]

When the crash comes, I think not many in the forum is buying. After going to $2k and crashing to $1k, would you really buy? Everybody is shitless by then. It is completely at the mercy of the new money then.

Are you being serious?  A crash is precisely what 90% of this forum wants.  How many times have I heard people screaming for "cheap coins"?  It's a sign that we all want more coins (faith in BTC's future) but we feel like we didn't quite get enough of them at the price we wanted .. ($0.01)

My guess is that 90% of that screaming is from internet mouthpieces with no money to buy in the first place. Yes, this is bitcoin, but it is also an internet forum; a locale notoriously full of BS (and thankfully equipped with an ignore button).

  Personally, I'm so full I couldn't eat another bite. Well, maybe just one...   (picturing Monty Python skit)

[ChartBuddy]

[Vycid]

Right. The point has been made - Bitcoin can hit 10k per coin without passing Facebook's market cap.

Ask yourself which one has more potential and you will start to see things a bit more clearly.

So very true. I think this every single time I hear about the "value" of some of these companies.

Instagram was sold not too long ago for many billions of dollars. How the fuck can they possibly expect to turn over a profit? By advertising to 14 year olds who think a grainy photo is cool?

Sometimes I think another dot com bubble is on the way. This is exactly what happened 13-14 years ago - people were throwing insane amounts of money at companies with no real business model (I realise that some bears will probably say the same thing about Bitcoin. It has legitimate potential. So, whatever).

I just hope Bitcoin doesn't get hurt when it all comes down. Maybe the stock market crashing would actually strengthen Bitcoin.

Bitcoin doesn't need to turn a profit, though. The model is entirely different. The network just needs to spread in order to increase demand for the currency units. In order to spread, it needs to offer an advantage over traditional systems. And it is unmistakable what is happening.

As has been repeated many times, Bitcoin is subject to a network effect; every new user that enters the network causes an exponential increase in the value of the network. Sooner or later (sooner, at this rate) we will hit a critical point and the true value of the network will exceed the current speculative value.

The growth trend is unmistakable and increasingly unstoppable. More and more people are looking long enough to realize that. The more unstoppable the network growth appears, the higher the speculative value should be.

Oh yeah, and there's a positive feedback loop between speculative value and network growth.

Honey badger don't give a shit.

This is the address of the "Hi Mom" kid, for those curious (vanity address and everything, brilliant). https://blockchain.info/address/1HiMoMgBaAikFHgAt3M4YJtetp4HrnsiXu

[SheHadMANHands]

I think early 2014 will actually be an exciting time.

Naval (video below) stated that Bitcoin would become more and more relevant to the start up space when the market cap reached the ~$3-5B range.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jl-HZWfxUFw

We've blown through that quickly, and we're now sitting at ~$12B.  I imagine (though I'm far from an insider) things are really developing quickly now in that space.  

When the market cap was $1B, if you were to invest $10M into a Bitcoin startup, you'd want to capture at least 10M/1B (1%) of that market cap as it grows.  Otherwise, you'd be better off simply investing and holding the underlying currency.  With a market cap of $10B, that same investment would only need to capture 0.1% of the growing market cap to be better than purchasing Bitcoin outright.  Clearly added incentive now.

Putting my faith in entrepreneur's in early 2014.    

And the ETF, if we're lucky.   

[Vycid]

I think early 2014 will actually be an exciting time.

Naval (video below) stated that Bitcoin would become more and more relevant to the start up space when the market cap reached the ~$3-5B range.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jl-HZWfxUFw

We've blown through that quickly, and we're now sitting at ~$12B.  I imagine (though I'm far from an insider) things are really developing quickly now in that space.  

When the market cap was $1B, if you were to invest $10M into a Bitcoin startup, you'd want to capture at least 10M/1B (1%) of that market cap as it grows.  Otherwise, you'd be better off simply investing in the underlying currency.  With a market cap of $10B, that same investment would only need to capture 0.1% of the growing market cap to be better than purchasing Bitcoin outright.  Clearly added incentive now.

This is another good point. Institutional money is coming, and when that hits everything changes.

If you don't recognize Bitcoin crossing $10B as a huge welcome mat for the big money then you're not paying attention.

Don't sell your coins unless it is to get out of debt (the bad kind, not college loans or mortgages).

Oh yeah, and don't invest in mining stocks, because Samsung is probably 6 months away from offering its own product.

[Bitcoines]

what would you be able to trade bitcoins for if the dollar/euro crashed first?
or if it gets stronger by that time, would it replace them?
or if its not ready for the colective conciusness would it crash as well?
or what would you be able to trade it for?


btw cant see no big wall, its only day trading, bots and traps atm it seems, looks like it will continue steadly rising .

[Vycid]

what would you be able to trade bitcoins for if the dollar/euro crashed first?
or if it gets stronger by that time, would it replace them?
or if its not ready for the colective conciusness would it crash as well?
or what would you be able to trade it for?


btw cant see no big wall, its only day trading, bots and traps atm it seems, looks like it will continue steadly rising .

I'm going to step away from the uber-bullishness for a minute to say that the dollar/euro aren't going to be immediately swept away by Bitcoin. That simply won't happen.

It's not to say that Bitcoin can't rapidly achieve a trillion-dollar-plus market cap - I believe it can - just that the role of inflationary currencies will continue to be a large and important one for the foreseeable future. Beyond the fact that tax obligations have to be paid in state-issued fiat, banking will be difficult in Bitcoin, and financial markets will certainly not be switching anytime soon - most "wealth" is in equities or derivatives, priced in dollars.

Then there's the fact that oil can only be purchased with dollars.

Gold, silver, and fiat have been coexisting for many years now, and I do not expect Bitcoin will upset that balance. We're looking at a timescale of decades before we can expect fiat to go away.

Frankly, I much prefer it that way. A functional alternative to fiat is actually better than a giant upheaval.

Some people still get the paper in their driveway every morning. And sometimes even I enjoy the experience.

[Bitcoines]

what would you be able to trade bitcoins for if the dollar/euro crashed first?
or if it gets stronger by that time, would it replace them?
or if its not ready for the colective conciusness would it crash as well?
or what would you be able to trade it for?


btw cant see no big wall, its only day trading, bots and traps atm it seems, looks like it will continue steadly rising .

I'm going to step away from the uber-bullishness for a minute to say that the dollar/euro aren't going to be immediately swept away by Bitcoin. That simply won't happen.

It's not to say that Bitcoin can't rapidly achieve a trillion-dollar-plus market cap - I believe it can - just that the role of inflationary currencies will continue to be a large and important one for the foreseeable future. Beyond the fact that tax obligations have to be paid in state-issued fiat, banking will be difficult in Bitcoin, and financial markets will certainly not be switching anytime soon - most "wealth" is in equities or derivatives, priced in dollars.

Then there's the fact that oil can only be purchased with dollars.

Gold, silver, and fiat have been coexisting for many years now, and I do not expect Bitcoin will upset that balance. We're looking at a timescale of decades before we can expect fiat to go away.

Frankly, I much prefer it that way. A functional alternative to fiat is actually better than a giant upheaval.

Some people still get the paper in their driveway every morning. And sometimes even I enjoy the experience.

I guess i agree with you, you make valid points, and true i prefer it that way as well, i was just thinking it becuase as i see it works kind of like this way the backd up   Gold/Silver --->>> Currencies --->>> Bitcoin value?,   *correct me if im wrong

while the direct backup for bitcoin is the hash number of each?

or am i just tripping

[Vycid]

what would you be able to trade bitcoins for if the dollar/euro crashed first?
or if it gets stronger by that time, would it replace them?
or if its not ready for the colective conciusness would it crash as well?
or what would you be able to trade it for?


btw cant see no big wall, its only day trading, bots and traps atm it seems, looks like it will continue steadly rising .

I'm going to step away from the uber-bullishness for a minute to say that the dollar/euro aren't going to be immediately swept away by Bitcoin. That simply won't happen.

It's not to say that Bitcoin can't rapidly achieve a trillion-dollar-plus market cap - I believe it can - just that the role of inflationary currencies will continue to be a large and important one for the foreseeable future. Beyond the fact that tax obligations have to be paid in state-issued fiat, banking will be difficult in Bitcoin, and financial markets will certainly not be switching anytime soon - most "wealth" is in equities or derivatives, priced in dollars.

Then there's the fact that oil can only be purchased with dollars.

Gold, silver, and fiat have been coexisting for many years now, and I do not expect Bitcoin will upset that balance. We're looking at a timescale of decades before we can expect fiat to go away.

Frankly, I much prefer it that way. A functional alternative to fiat is actually better than a giant upheaval.

Some people still get the paper in their driveway every morning. And sometimes even I enjoy the experience.

I guess i agree with you, you make valid points, and true i prefer it that way as well, i was just thinking it becuase as i see it works kind of like this way the backd up   Gold/Silver --->>> Currencies --->>> Bitcoin value?,   *correct me if im wrong

while the direct backup for bitcoin is the hash number of each?

or am i just tripping

Not really sure what you're talking about.

Nothing is backed by anything but faith these days. Gold is backed exclusively by people who want it. Silver is backed exclusively by people who want it. The dollar is backed exclusively by people who want it. And naturally, Bitcoin is backed exclusively by people who want it. "The Economy" is a collective hallucination.

With that in mind, the people who cry "tulip!" at Bitcoin are really just not thinking very hard about the way the world ticks. Gold is the biggest tulip of all time, and that doesn't keep it from a 7 trillion dollar market cap.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

what would you be able to trade bitcoins for if the dollar/euro crashed first?
or if it gets stronger by that time, would it replace them?
or if its not ready for the colective conciusness would it crash as well?
or what would you be able to trade it for?


btw cant see no big wall, its only day trading, bots and traps atm it seems, looks like it will continue steadly rising .

I'm going to step away from the uber-bullishness for a minute to say that the dollar/euro aren't going to be immediately swept away by Bitcoin. That simply won't happen.

It's not to say that Bitcoin can't rapidly achieve a trillion-dollar-plus market cap - I believe it can - just that the role of inflationary currencies will continue to be a large and important one for the foreseeable future. Beyond the fact that tax obligations have to be paid in state-issued fiat, banking will be difficult in Bitcoin, and financial markets will certainly not be switching anytime soon - most "wealth" is in equities or derivatives, priced in dollars.

Then there's the fact that oil can only be purchased with dollars.

Gold, silver, and fiat have been coexisting for many years now, and I do not expect Bitcoin will upset that balance. We're looking at a timescale of decades before we can expect fiat to go away.

Frankly, I much prefer it that way. A functional alternative to fiat is actually better than a giant upheaval.

Some people still get the paper in their driveway every morning. And sometimes even I enjoy the experience.

I guess i agree with you, you make valid points, and true i prefer it that way as well, i was just thinking it becuase as i see it works kind of like this way the backd up   Gold/Silver --->>> Currencies --->>> Bitcoin value?,   *correct me if im wrong

while the direct backup for bitcoin is the hash number of each?

or am i just tripping

There is no "backing". There is only utility.