Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kurious]

Just watched all three exchanges get within 3 bux and Stamp and Gox within 20 cents.

Very odd synchronisation carrying on....

I feel something is going on - and it does not feel Bearish.

[prof7bit]

Fiatleak shows money going in - not trade, I think...

Fiatleak counts market orders on exchanges (because that's the only publicly available information) and then in an act of utter stupidity interprets that as money going "in" or "out" which is complete nonsense.

[tarmi]

wow, so many delusional people over here.

or just too many trolls.

no more choo choo for some time, sorry.

[DaSheep]

I stick to arbitrage by someone with extreme deep pockets on all exchanges (wallstreet/second market?)

Code:

            bitstamp      btce  campbx       mtgox
date                                              
2013-12-01    955.00   878.173  840.00  1004.42392
2013-12-02   1047.47   980.001  999.00  1096.63251
2013-12-03   1055.00   997.500  974.99  1155.00000
2013-12-04   1132.01  1076.000  946.00  1237.95500
2013-12-05   1023.87   990.400  989.00  1106.43450
2013-12-06    814.91   839.000  825.00   845.00000
2013-12-07    693.30   700.000  705.23   696.99999
2013-12-08    772.05   773.800  761.13   777.92120

Code:

         bitstamp         btce      campbx        mtgox
count     8.00000     8.000000    8.000000     8.000000
mean    936.70125   904.359250  880.043750   990.045890
std     157.44857   128.188702  112.580584   194.823592
min     693.30000   700.000000  705.230000   696.999990
25%     804.19500   822.700000  809.032500   828.230300
50%     989.43500   929.087000  893.000000  1050.528215
75%    1049.35250   992.175000  978.492500  1118.575875
max    1132.01000  1076.000000  999.000000  1237.955000

[kurious]

Just watched all three exchanges get within 3 bux and Stamp and Gox within 20 cents.

Very odd synchronisation carrying on....

I feel something is going on - and it does not feel Bearish.

I would be really surprised if we see 800 again. I could be wrong.

No one here knows - but I think it's not going to be a quiet evening somehow - there is big money hovering as we saw early on.   Only people officially 'working' on Sunday are in the Arabic world and serious players here.   But we have seen big swings and large cash.

The weekend is not over by any means IMHO.

[ChartBuddy]

[tarmi]

The weekend is not over by any means IMHO.

+1

As the matter of fact, this weekend is going to be a looooooooooooong one.

[KFR]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8zmkzshUvE

[macsga]

wow, so many delusional people over here.

or just too many trolls.

no more choo choo for some time, sorry.

I'm a known troll (here)...

[kurious]

Fiatleak shows money going in - not trade, I think...

Fiatleak counts market orders on exchanges (because that's the only publicly available information) and then in an act of utter stupidity interprets that as money going "in" or "out" which is complete nonsense.

It is a hint of activity, that is all.  When it goes over 10,000 BTC /hr worldwide things tend to get interesting - but basically, I agree it is not really a good trade indicator other than 'money flying around'

[PirateHatForTea]

There were some (actually achievable - ie not requiring moving fiat around) arbitrage opportunities available during the last few weeks based on the crazy spreads between exchanges. The combination of the following three phenomenon was the most interesting. These have all ended or lessened.

• Bitfinex would typically run out of USD on Bitstamp, meaning that BFX users no longer had access to BTSTMP ask book (but could still sell into Bitstamp). This always led to BFX price being higher than BSTMP, and sometimes even led to it being higher than the Gox price - sometimes by as much as 5%!
• Insane Goxbux premiums - there were times when Gox price was more than 20% higher than Bitstamp
• As we have seen, at other times the spread would reduce back to nothing, or even (very ocassionally) invert so BTSMP was above Gox! Part of this was that there was a ton more volatility on Gox that was smoothed or just ignored on Bitstamp.

When we were above 1100, there were moves of >100 bucks on Gox that seemed to reek of manipulation, and I think Bitstampers got sick of responding to them, hence the 'smoothing' of these up-one-minute-down-the-next jumps.

All this made an arb strategy possible where:

• You keep a float, ideally of both BTC and fiat, on 2 or more exchanges.
• When Gox (or BFX) premium gets very high, sell BTC on GOX and simultaneously buy on BFX/Bitstamp. You now have the same amount of BTC, and more fiat.
• When the spread reduces or inverts, you use the fiat you have on Gox from the past sale to buy BTC, and simultaneously sell BTC on the other exchange
• Transfer BTC between exchanges to maintain floats if they get out of whack.

Maybe someone implemented a bot to do this, and it is helping to reduce the spreads?

Also, there were incredible arb opportunities for a while based on the BTCChina premium, but this assumed you can get the CNY out of the country!

[PirateHatForTea]

I stick to arbitrage by someone with extreme deep pockets on all exchanges (wallstreet/second market?)

Rptiela specifically mentioned in another thread that he was using a strategy that sounded similar to what I described to arb spreads between exchanges. And he's a pretty big player.

[kurious]

There were some (actually achievable - ie not requiring moving fiat around) arbitrage opportunities available during the last few weeks based on the crazy spreads between exchanges. The combination of the following three phenomenon was the most interesting. These have all ended or lessened.

• Bitfinex would typically run out of USD on Bitstamp, meaning that BFX users no longer had access to BTSTMP ask book (but could still sell into Bitstamp). This always led to BFX price being higher than BSTMP, and sometimes even led to it being higher than the Gox price - sometimes by as much as 5%!
• Insane Goxbux premiums - there were times when Gox price was more than 20% higher than Bitstamp
• As we have seen, at other times the spread would reduce back to nothing, or even (very ocassionally) invert so BTSMP was above Gox! Part of this was that there was a ton more volatility on Gox that was smoothed or just ignored on Bitstamp.

When we were above 1100, there were moves of >100 bucks on Gox that seemed to reek of manipulation, and I think Bitstampers got sick of responding to them, hence the 'smoothing' of these up-one-minute-down-the-next jumps.

All this made an arb strategy possible where:

• You keep a float, ideally of both BTC and fiat, on 2 or more exchanges.
• When Gox (or BFX) premium gets very high, sell BTC on GOX and simultaneously buy on BFX/Bitstamp. You now have the same amount of BTC, and more fiat.
• When the spread reduces or inverts, you use the fiat you have on Gox from the past sale to buy BTC, and simultaneously sell BTC on the other exchange
• Transfer BTC between exchanges to maintain floats if they get out of whack.

Maybe someone implemented a bot to do this, and it is helping to reduce the spreads?

Also, there were incredible arb opportunities for a while based on the BTCChina premium, but this assumed you can get the CNY out of the country!

I agree on the strategy - but I just could not see the trading which would have made this sensible showing up simultaneously on the other exchanges -as you would have expected.   Am still clutching at straws, but I refuse to believe anyone playing with a thousand BTC + is an idiot with no agenda

[Vigil]

There is no effective means of arbitrage at this time. The reason we have seen a consolidation of price is due to the levels of support at varying prices on different exchanges. Some exchanges had enough volume to push the price higher than others. Once the price comes down, the percentage difference diminishes the observable nominal price differences. And there was also a large manipulator on Gox, I don't know about the other exchanges.

So... say BTC-e was trading at $100 and Gox $120 - that is only a difference of $20. Nominally, it doesn't seem that big of a deal. But that is a 20% difference. Suppose the price goes up and BtC-e is at 1000 and Gox is at $1200 - that is $200!!!

In the process, BTC-e is gaining lots of buyers because of publicity, Gox may gain some but the percentage increase is in BTC-e's favor because they need less to see a larger percentage of buyer increase. BTC-e went from 2000-3000 people online to 17000. When the price comes back down the difference has been largely eliminated. If it goes much higher again, you will likely see it return.

[kurious]

Maybe someone implemented a bot to do this, and it is helping to reduce the spreads?

This would make sense, yep - and it would be worth creating it, we have all see stupid spreads and not been able to practically arb them.

[TERA]

Hey I think I found the bottom.

[niothor]

I stick to arbitrage by someone with extreme deep pockets on all exchanges (wallstreet/second market?)

Rptiela specifically mentioned in another thread that he was using a strategy that sounded similar to what I described to arb spreads between exchanges. And he's a pretty big player.

Some people are in actual dire straits, lost their houses, etc. Meanwhile we had a nice flash-goxx-crash where pros including me made a nice chunk of money. It is quite ironic, to think of it. I will therefore not go into details, just express my satisfaction of the result of trading..

You will have to explain that, because all your price predictions have been consistently wrong.

First you sold at $700 and "turned bear", losing the run up to $1242

Then, just before we crashed you turned superbull, dismissing any chances of a bubble pop.

Finally, during the crash you called the bottom at $800, saying that there was a mini-chance (a very unlikely one) of visiting $600, but going lower was impossible.

So, how are you making money other than the one coming from holding? Either you write the opposite you actually believe, either you are losing money by trading.

I honestly think is the latter, but in my opinion all this threads and things you write are a strategy to build a "commercial" character - your goal is to appear successful, rich and bitcoin-savvy to build a customer base for you. Honestly, am I mistaken?

Friendly advice: refrain yourself from making price predictions, they spoil the other interesting threads (as the SSS) you write.

From the other side, I have to say that everybody that has done exactly the opposite you suggested during this year (in terms of day trading and price action) is making a HUGE amount of money. Your general vision about bitcoin is very interesting; your market analysis is usually the best contrarian indicator in these boards.

[Nemo1024]

CHOO CHOO!!!

I'm not sure it's CCMF time yet, but it's definitely bullish.

Or at least more bullish than we've seen since before the bungled "China bans BTC" news fiasco.

I expect a little more "Ouch time" before the week-end is over, but that's just me, who didn't place an overnight buy order at 550, then didn't buy at 650, expecting a fall back to 550, an then didn't place an overnight buy order at 650, but at 550, so I actually missed out on all 3 100-dollar bounces!

Aaaarggghhhhh.......

Now, feeling much better.

[kurious]

Hey - if you did wrote and 'arb-bot' would you have to accept the first thing that would happen upon launching it be a selling down of the higher exchange - an automatic reduction of the spread?

Just a kooky theory?

[barbs]

you'd think with all the fees gox makes from us they'd do something new for their customers.

Mark has to support a drug habit, i get that but at least upgrade your servers man lag placing orders at this stage of the game is unacceptable