Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[barbs]

I have learned not to listen to a single damned person on this board.

Whoever wanted to sell because of the china scare, has already done so.

If you want to give up your BTC's 500$ under last week's price go for it, I just earned over 1 btc from trading this 790-> 700 drop, so thanks for your coin.

See you at 800+

[TERA]

I think we're now we're now working on the "arm of death" as the final bulltrap before capitulation.

[barbs]

I think we're now we're now working on the "arm of death" as the final bulltrap before capitulation.

Just in time for your transfer to clear next week?

[CoinGeneral]

It's times like these that you are glad that you can read Chinese, and not have to deal with clueless English newspapers. I summarized the PBC announcement

@Is the news out of China about banks & bitcoins good or bad news?

It's excellent news for bitcoin. Essentially bitcoin exchanges in China and bitcoin itself is going to be treated as a "commodity" rather than a "currency" and therefore not going to be subject to banking and currency control regulations. The only restrictions on bitcoin exchanges is that they will be subject to the standard internet censorship rules and they will need to get the identity of all users to prevent money laundering. Existing financial institutions will not be able to trade bitcoin, but this is a great thing for entrepreneurs.

Also, more excellent news out of Hong Kong. An HK bitcoin exchange basically shutdown and stole everyone's money. This is excellent news because within days, they have been caught and are likely going to go to jail. I'm very, very optimistic about Hong Kong "leading the way" for bitcoin.

The other good news is that the Chinese government understands bitcoin. According to the notice.

Bitcoin has the following four characteristics:

1) there is no central issuing authority 2) the total amount is limited 3) it is not geographically limited for acceptance 4) it is anonymous

According to the PBC, bitcoin is not a "true" currency because

1) there is no central issuing authority 2) there is no legal requirement that anyone accept bitcoin

Bitcoin is therefore a virtual commodity, and therefore is not subject to the laws regarding currency transactions, nor should circulate as a currency.

Also here are his thoughts on the overall climate in China regarding Bitcoin:

1) The PBC has basically given the green light for bitcoin trading and exchanges. They are trying to keep bitcoin trading "separate" from the other parts of the financial system so that if bitcoin blows up, then nothing bad will happen. The thing that I think they are worried about is a Lehman style situation in which something blowing up in derivatives brings down the rest of the economy.

The strategy of creating a ring fence around new markets is a very standard one in China. Hong Kong is an entire city that is ring fenced.

2) Not terribly much. It only started to get on the radar screen a month ago.

3) The main driver is that there are tons of money in China and no one knows what to do with it all. The traditional investments (real estate and stocks) have been closed off by government action since the government has made it clear they will kill any bubble in the real estate and stock markets. So the money is going into all sorts of "non-traditional" investments. Bitcoin is just one of them.

4) Geeks. So far it's not the type of thing that random people will buy.

5) It's not very mainstream. However, its taken the Chinese geek community by storm and there are a lot of geeks in China. As with a lot of Chinese things, the fraction of people in China who are geeks is small, but a small fraction times a billion is a lot of people.

6) No harder than it is to buy anything else online.

Bitcoin has not gotten much mainstream attention and its still something that is with geeks, but you have the perfect storm of a lot of other things. The main thing is that bitcoin has hit China exactly at the time where China is looking at restructuring its entire economy and financial system to move out of low tech industries into high tech ones. It also hit China at just the right time in the credit cycle. China has recovered from the 2008 crash and is just starting to enter into another boom phase (which will last about two to three years before the economy crashes again).

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1sbefw/chinese_investment_banker_says_what_nobody_in_the/

thank you for this clarification

The 'Chinese Scare' was actually good news guys.

[kurious]

The 'Chinese Scare' was actually good news guys.

It doesn't feel like it did us much good right now, though!

A few days ago I was sure we would take Gold and then rise to, oooh, y'know 1300 up to 1500 range.

Since then we have dipped below 600 and can't seem to stay over 700.

I have spent all my fiat buying at what seems to be amazing prices compared to a even a week ago.   

Good news would be stability over 800 right now - I would settle for that!

[Odalv]

I think we're now we're now working on the "arm of death" as the final bulltrap before capitulation.

Yes bulls will trapped for 2 days ? (2 weeks or 2 months) ... What do you think about bear trapped forever ?

[TERA]

The 'Chinese Scare' was actually good news guys.

It doesn't feel like it did us much good right now, though!

A few days ago I was sure we would take Gold and then rise to, oooh, y'know 1300 up to 1500 range.

Since then we have dipped below 600 and can't seem to stay over 700.

I have spent all my fiat buying at what seems to be amazing prices compared to a even a week ago.   

Good news would be stability over 800 right now - I would settle for that!

Yes it was surely breaking 1250 and having another leg up with with a solid correction behind it, before the news.  It is very interesting to see how bubble pop dynamics are precisely played out on the chart when the event was actually news driven. I would never have said we were in the "bubble phase" of the rally yet because there were healthy corrections.

[barbs]

I'm not selling. I dont care.

Good luck to you manipulators / bulls turned bear

[Davyd05]

I think we're now we're now working on the "arm of death" as the final bulltrap before capitulation.

relate that to the Chinese markets being at 780, sentiment like this is why North America is so shaky....there has yet to be a bull trap in my opinion..

[gandhibt]

I think we're now we're now working on the "arm of death" as the final bulltrap before capitulation.

Yes bulls will trapped for 2 days ? (2 weeks or 2 months) ... What do you think about bear trapped forever ?

all wealth that could be in coins are bear trapped

[humanitee]

I think we're now we're now working on the "arm of death" as the final bulltrap before capitulation.

Yes bulls will trapped for 2 days ? (2 weeks or 2 months) ... What do you think about bear trapped forever ?

all wealth that could be in coins are bear trapped

lol, well said!

[rpietila]

There is no effective means of arbitrage at this time. The reason we have seen a consolidation of price is due to the levels of support at varying prices on different exchanges. Some exchanges had enough volume to push the price higher than others. Once the price comes down, the percentage difference diminishes the observable nominal price differences. And there was also a large manipulator on Gox, I don't know about the other exchanges.

I agree with you - though if you had been using my strategy to trade the spread previously, right now (all exchanges at same price) is a great opportunity to re-normalize your positions across exchanges by buying/selling BTC and transferring BTC between exchanges. And although there is 'noe ffective means of arbitrage' NOW, I expect the spreads to widen again as soon as we hit some new volatility.

I would also expect Gox to typically maintain at a minimum 5% premium to other exchanges, because this is how much it costs to withdraw fiat via wire transfer (unless you pay for the 5% expedited withdraw method you never see your money come out of Gox). So the ucrrent zero spread is quite strange, and probably reflects a lack of selling pressure (noone is in a big hurry to get their miney out of Gox, so they're less inclined to pay the extra to buy BTC and transfer them out).


Niothor - not sure what you were trying to show by quoting that as it wasn't rpietila talking. I agree with the Rampion's takedown of his trading/pricing recommendations though - I'm with Dasheep and Rampion that he sucks at trading.

The quote that is relevant to what I was saying was:

My trading strategy is currently such that there are major fluctuations in relative prices in BTC China and Bitstamp. I chart them and analyze them and have both fiat and bitcoins in both exchanges. I sell in China (buy back BS) when it goes like 10% ahead. When it goes back to 0%, I reverse.

Trading report today 00:00 UTC+2 -> so far.

Sum trades   1590479   mBTC (about 1% of global volume during this period)
net position decrease   -148160   mBTC
      
Gain USD   164489   
Decrease in net pos. USD   -115417   
China credit   -26737   
Fees   -1581   
      
VOL USD   1147166   
PROFIT USD   20754   
% of volume   1.81 %   
      
Profit in mBTC   26304   

Of course the forum is full of better traders, but I would not say that this sucks...

[CoinGeneral]

The 'Chinese Scare' was actually good news guys.

It doesn't feel like it did us much good right now, though!

A few days ago I was sure we would take Gold and then rise to, oooh, y'know 1300 up to 1500 range.

Since then we have dipped below 600 and can't seem to stay over 700.

I have spent all my fiat buying at what seems to be amazing prices compared to a even a week ago.   

Good news would be stability over 800 right now - I would settle for that!

This always happens with Bitcoin, always, history has shown it. But once again after the prices fall the price will then skyrocket afterwards. It will then reach another point where it will stabilize for a few days, maybe even a few weeks, then it will fall again.

Notice the falling range might be around the same percentage as it has always been, ~45% to ~%55 , but the value it falls down to is always a lot higher than the previous 'normal' selling price. $700 now is more than 3x what the normal selling price BTC was going for last month, $200, the pattern will repeat, it always has and always will.

Though I think in the future the percentage drop will be less and less, until it finally reaches a stable point. Then the US government will collapse, then Bitcoin prices will skyrocket to millions of dollars each.

Remember this quote.



Quote it when the prediction comes true.

[Davyd05]

If we can shake off this misunderstood news and people start looking at China objectively and realize they've returned to leading maybe they'll notice how many strong hands in China got cheap coins.. If everyone was to assume they were what got us up to 1200s then why would they not be encouraged by them leading again.

Also this is still FUD but I believe  I read that the police in Hong Kong were on to or had possibly made an arrest of the thieves from an exchange...this help to prove that bitcoin can't always just be scammed with out repercussion.

[kurious]

I am all BTC - so full-on bull - and thanks for the reminder that any bears are trapped in fiat.

Just bored of the 700 loop when the news has been largely excellent...  I have traded the ups and downs - but I have not taken huge pleasure in my gains.

I just haven't seen a good choo choo train for a fair while! (he said, sulking)  

[Davyd05]

the last time I had to wait on a choo choo we shot pass 900 in a couple days after the weekend.

[SheHadMANHands]

[ChartBuddy]

[barbs]

What's great is that Gox whale's can only manipulate us for so long, you can almost see the arrogance... It seems BTC-E and BTCChina are about to lead the recovery.

The news has been great so far, we just had a 500$+ drop, over the weekend when there's no money coming in, I'm not sure what more you guys are looking for.

If we go down from here, buy more, but I doubt it. 

Just remember most people on here have an agenda.  Fact is there has been great news for weeks, there is plenty of money on the sidelines who sees a 500$ discount in front of them, and lol fiat is still trapped on gox.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

The 'Chinese Scare' was actually good news guys.

It doesn't feel like it did us much good right now, though!

A few days ago I was sure we would take Gold and then rise to, oooh, y'know 1300 up to 1500 range.

Since then we have dipped below 600 and can't seem to stay over 700.

I have spent all my fiat buying at what seems to be amazing prices compared to a even a week ago.    

Good news would be stability over 800 right now - I would settle for that!

Yes it was surely breaking 1250 and having another leg up with with a solid correction behind it, before the news.  It is very interesting to see how bubble pop dynamics are precisely played out on the chart when the event was actually news driven. I would never have said we were in the "bubble phase" of the rally yet because there were healthy corrections.

I think we were kinda bubbly, but I was also expecting another leg up (which is why I didn't sell for incoming correction/crash-trading).  Probably the uncertainty of what the China news meant was enough to drive people to profit-taking.
I think the medium-term bull market is over, but it wouldn't be the first time that bitcoin has proven me wrong. I wouldn't mind being wrong at all .