Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[kurious]

The price on Gox was specifically attacked over Sunday by a bear or bears to try and hoover up cheap coins before this week's trading.

It was aimed at thin volume markets and weak hands.

I am guessing the trade did not work - at least not entirely, judging by what loaded said - it seems some stashes were big enough to defeat the main aim of the bearish whale.

The fundamentals are sound (better then ever in terms of sentiment and 'adoption') so the news in China seemed a good moment to hit a weak market.   The fact that the news was not really bad, but made China a little nervy was good timing in some respects - but I think the line held and Bitcoin has proved more resilient than expected.

Huge volumes did not smash BTC down to sub 500 as 'may' have been expected - we could all see the big sales and then walls popping up - but the ability to buy low was not really enough as major buying back was not possible without buying back the whales own wall - I don't think the profit was really there.

There has been manipulation to keep all exchanges (except China) to remarkably close prices too - but all of this appears to have failed and a shift to a market price of 800+ plus seems to have won over.

For me this was a giant fail - and it had to work before Monday morning European time to succeed.

I suspect the whale has Gox bux now as focus was on Gox.    

Bitcoin won the day - it will not be the last battle, but it was a significant one and may have taught some bears a lesson.

I actually think if rpietila takes the 10BTC bet - he will lose it.  

'That which does not kill me, makes me strong'

[1714808417]

1714808417

[gizmoh]

hmmmm everyone says choo choo. i don't know....

To choo or not to choo...that is the question!

We've settled for a semi choo choo, im taking some profits until the trend becomes clearer.An epic bull trap is still possible as this quick rally has been made on low volume. Id be interested to see what happens if a wall of 5k -10k btc is put at 1000..

[marcelus]

Another insight:

Above a certain volume, TA is absolutely worthless. Large holders can and do draw whatever pattern they want on the charts, sometimes to push the masses into buying or selling.

TA is BS

TA foresaw this crash. It was a clear double top. And until we break through the neck, TA will tell us that this recovery is a bull-trap.

[Dragonkiller]

Another insight:

Above a certain volume, TA is absolutely worthless. Large holders can and do draw whatever pattern they want on the charts, sometimes to push the masses into buying or selling.

TA is BS

TA foresaw this crash. It was a clear double top. And until we break through the neck, TA will tell us that this recovery is a bull-trap.

Where is the neck?

[ChartBuddy]

[marcelus]

Another insight:

Above a certain volume, TA is absolutely worthless. Large holders can and do draw whatever pattern they want on the charts, sometimes to push the masses into buying or selling.

TA is BS

TA foresaw this crash. It was a clear double top. And until we break through the neck, TA will tell us that this recovery is a bull-trap.

Where is the neck?

See graph on previous page.

[traderCJ]

Another insight:

Above a certain volume, TA is absolutely worthless. Large holders can and do draw whatever pattern they want on the charts, sometimes to push the masses into buying or selling.

TA is BS

TA foresaw this crash. It was a clear double top. And until we break through the neck, TA will tell us that this recovery is a bull-trap.

You sound like a psychic giving a cold reading.

[seanneko]

Another insight:

Above a certain volume, TA is absolutely worthless. Large holders can and do draw whatever pattern they want on the charts, sometimes to push the masses into buying or selling.

TA is BS

TA foresaw this crash. It was a clear double top. And until we break through the neck, TA will tell us that this recovery is a bull-trap.

You sound like a psychic giving a cold reading.

Next the TA people will be reading tarot cards.

Oh, the six of swords! I see a grave future ahead of Bitcoin. Bitcoin investors will have relationship trouble in the coming weeks.

[marcelus]

Another insight:

Above a certain volume, TA is absolutely worthless. Large holders can and do draw whatever pattern they want on the charts, sometimes to push the masses into buying or selling.

TA is BS

TA foresaw this crash. It was a clear double top. And until we break through the neck, TA will tell us that this recovery is a bull-trap.

You sound like a psychic giving a cold reading.

Or somebody who made a killing selling at $1000 and buying back at $600.

[traderCJ]

Another insight:

Above a certain volume, TA is absolutely worthless. Large holders can and do draw whatever pattern they want on the charts, sometimes to push the masses into buying or selling.

TA is BS

TA foresaw this crash. It was a clear double top. And until we break through the neck, TA will tell us that this recovery is a bull-trap.

You sound like a psychic giving a cold reading.

Or somebody who made a killing selling at $1000 and buying back at $600.

I remember the first time I made a good trade, too.

[Le Happy Merchant]

TA foresaw this crash. It was a clear double top. And until we break through the neck, TA will tell us that this recovery is a bull-trap.

This 'crash' was triggered by real world events. TA may be right in retrospect, but if it was wrong, it would still be right in retrospect later.

[Rampion]

TA is not very useful in a market as tiny as BTC, because one big holder can and will move the market at his will. It's just as a penny stock market. Just look how BTC usually reacts to "bearish pennants": 90% of the times they break upwards when they are supposed to go in the opposite direction.

Still interesting to discuss and analyze the charts, but we all know that b&h is THE strategy for BTC.

[barbs]

getting nervous holding right now....

lol. nice.

[barbs]

I've decided to sue bitcoin, for causing me whiplash, anyone care to join?

Maybe we can team up with the RIAA and start a class action suit.

I'm tired of these swings, I prefer peace and quiet but instead i'm constipated all the time now

[marcelus]

TA foresaw this crash. It was a clear double top. And until we break through the neck, TA will tell us that this recovery is a bull-trap.

This 'crash' was triggered by real world events. TA may be right in retrospect, but if it was wrong, it would still be right in retrospect later.

Technical analysis is the tool with which we analyse the effects of funadamentals on the market. Of course real world events matter. So do technicals.

[MahaRamana]

I prefer peace and quiet but instead i'm constipated all the time now

There are many more peaceful and quiet investments out there. (more or less everything else)

[Vycid]

TA foresaw this crash. It was a clear double top. And until we break through the neck, TA will tell us that this recovery is a bull-trap.

This 'crash' was triggered by real world events. TA may be right in retrospect, but if it was wrong, it would still be right in retrospect later.

Dead on... TA folks will take credit for predictions even if the outcome is triggered by news events - but if those events were to preclude the TA predictions, the TA folks would blame the news.

Not to mention there's a lot of flexibility in the way charts are read; if the crash hadn't happened we'd simply be focusing on elements besides the double top.

Let's face it - TA is not much better than 50% in terms of accuracy, and you can only expect better than random odds when the charts are read by experts.

[MahaRamana]

TA foresaw this crash. It was a clear double top. And until we break through the neck, TA will tell us that this recovery is a bull-trap.

This 'crash' was triggered by real world events. TA may be right in retrospect, but if it was wrong, it would still be right in retrospect later.

Technical analysis is the tool with which we analyse the effects of funadamentals on the market. Of course real world events matter. So do technicals.

TA matters mostly because a significant amount of market players believe it will matter, thus influencing their behaviour according to the TA.
It is a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.

[Miz4r]

I've decided to sue bitcoin, for causing me whiplash, anyone care to join?

Maybe we can team up with the RIAA and start a class action suit.

I'm tired of these swings, I prefer peace and quiet but instead i'm constipated all the time now

How about you stop staring at charts and just hold? Are the potential profits you can make on these swings really worth all the trouble and the risk of ending up with a BTC loss instead?

[barbs]

I've decided to sue bitcoin, for causing me whiplash, anyone care to join?

Maybe we can team up with the RIAA and start a class action suit.

I'm tired of these swings, I prefer peace and quiet but instead i'm constipated all the time now

How about you stop staring at charts and just hold? Are the potential profits you can make on these swings really worth all the trouble and the risk of ending up with a BTC loss instead?

I was joking. I'm holding now, risk is too high to sell