Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

There's so many battles to fight now it makes long seem like a riskier position than not long.

[macsga]

Wow, 670 buy on Gox

I predict more of these orders to come sooner than later... It feels like it's gonna be a great day today.

[owlbear]

I believe the media is necessary to drive up the price, and the media appears to be getting tired of doing Bitcoin stories. We need a new ATH or some big corporate endorsement in order to reinvigorate the positive reporting.

My prediction is if we don't get a good rally up to $1050+ today and a new all time high early next week we're more likely than not to be in a bear market by the end of next week.

[Shermo]

I believe the media is necessary to drive up the price, and the media appears to be getting tired of doing Bitcoin stories. We need a new ATH or some big corporate endorsement in order to reinvigorate the positive reporting.

My prediction is if we don't get a good rally up to $1050+ today and a new all time high early next week we're more likely than not to be in a bear market by the end of next week.

I think I'd be happy with it hovering around $1000 for the next month or so over Christmas / New Year with a new rally starting in later January. Lets be honest its been a great year for Bitcoin and the price of it, getting greedy and wanting another run around the festive period is asking for trouble as so many people have other commitments around this time that it will be hard to react to things.

[Vycid]

This is like the bounce from 120 to 145 in april, after the drop from 165 and before the drop to 80.



The symmetry.

Hmm, all I see is the post-overshoot ringing pattern, same as April. That tells me we're settling somewhere near this price, and the long-term aftermath of April would tell me we'd be in for a bear market after the price settles.

But the positive news cycle hasn't slowed ($25M for Coinbase in Series B? Are you kidding me?), so the bear market will probably be exceptionally brief, if it manifests at all.

Here's what I'm talking about. Top is March-April. Bottom is prior 60d.





The ringing cycle is shorter (system is more highly damped) because the market is larger and confidence is greater.

Similarly I expect a shorter bear market, if it manifests at all.

On the other hand, bulls will be pleased to know that I said this a month ago at the giant beartrap, shortly before it established new ATHs.

Another sell off developing.

Yup, typical "ringing" pattern after the overshoot blow-off. Same as April.

Yawn. Predictable.

We can either look at this as me being wrong, or there having been two consecutive bubbles. I prefer the latter.  

You don't really believe in all this stuff right? I mean you're just joking with all those lines and comparing charts etc right?

I absolutely believe a system seeking equilibrium will exhibit ringing behavior after a significant perturbation.

The lines are garbage, of course, but you should expect that pattern after a bubble has popped - just like it manifested in April. So I think it is indeed informative that we're seeing that pattern now.

[tHash]

I don't have idea what will happen... I might be wrong for closing my shorting position at loss earlier as some of bid walls on Stamp that we pushing it up are removed but it was just too risky and got me too nervous, don't need that shit.

I think you definitely made the right call to close the short now.   Look at the 5min chart on Gox.   3 large green volume bars in the last few hours.   Almost seems like a whale has picked this as his reentry point, keeping buys small to avoid either panic buying or a lot of slippage.   

Hey bears, the writing is on the wall . . .

[spooderman]

Just an interesting aside....has anyone watched this? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nMBG-K_A4yM&hd=1

after seeing this.....I realise, don't let the Skilling's frighten you with their pump and dumps! If you believe in the future of BTC, keep them!

[tutkarz]

I just woke up, what a nice smell of slaughtered bears in the morning
And to answer people who got caught again: wise man just holds.

[macsga]

There's so many battles to fight now it makes long seem like a riskier position than not long.

BEING LONG, IS NEVER WRONG

-macsga

[Nemo1024]

Good morning from Europe and hello to everyone saying that going all fiat is stupid. You were, as always, right.

My only hope now is a sharp downward movement during the next three days, and knowing my luck, that will not happen.

This week saw me 3 BTC down, though almost at the same $ value. The worst decision was to sell at 804, after I auto-bought at 901 (down from 960), expecting the second down-leg.

Hopefully, we are at a local top before the week-end, so I am still in fiat. And I am in dire need of a second chance. Knowing Bitcoin, that chance would come, I just simply need not to botch it.

[spooderman]

Good morning from Europe and hello to everyone saying that going all fiat is stupid. You were, as always, right.

My only hope now is a sharp downward movement during the next three days, and knowing my luck, that will not happen.

This week saw me 3 BTC down, though almost at the same $ value. The worst decision was to sell at 804, after I auto-bought at 901 (down from 960), expecting the second down-leg.

Hopefully, we are at a local top before the week-end, so I am still in fiat. And I am in dire need of a second chance. Knowing Bitcoin, that chance would come, I just simply need not to botch it.

good luck my friend.

wait a minute?! what am I saying?!?

[macsga]

Good morning from Europe and hello to everyone saying that going all fiat is stupid. You were, as always, right.

My only hope now is a sharp downward movement during the next three days, and knowing my luck, that will not happen.

This week saw me 3 BTC down, though almost at the same $ value. The worst decision was to sell at 804, after I auto-bought at 901 (down from 960), expecting the second down-leg.

Hopefully, we are at a local top before the week-end, so I am still in fiat. And I am in dire need of a second chance. Knowing Bitcoin, that chance would come, I just simply need not to botch it.

[tHash]

Good morning from Europe and hello to everyone saying that going all fiat is stupid. You were, as always, right.

My only hope now is a sharp downward movement during the next three days, and knowing my luck, that will not happen.

This week saw me 3 BTC down, though almost at the same $ value. The worst decision was to sell at 804, after I auto-bought at 901 (down from 960), expecting the second down-leg.

Hopefully, we are at a local top before the week-end, so I am still in fiat. And I am in dire need of a second chance. Knowing Bitcoin, that chance would come, I just simply need not to botch it.

I am sorry you chose to learn the hard way.   We tried . . .

By the way, since you seem to like the risk of trading, where I just can't risk my precious BTC, I have an observation for you.   Look at the one day charts.   We had one large red candle the day the China news broke.   Imagine a stone thrown in a pond.   Following that, 3 days up, 3 days down, 3 days up, 2 days down.    2 days up?   1 or 2 days down?   If you are going to mess around, at least trade the larger swings, not every day.

Better yet, find an entry point and take a break . . .   You know you wish you had done it sooner.

[Erdogan]

Meanwhile @ Yahoo Finance:

That's frackin great. 10% is way high!   Can you imagine if 10% of fund managers agreed?

I used this link to get to the vote...


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-fund-raises-65-mln-205149343.html;_ylt=AwrSyCVULapSc28AQ9aTmYlQ

From the article:

"To invest in the BIT, individuals have to prove their net worth is $1 million, not counting primary residence, or that they draw annual incomes of more than $200,000. The minimum buy-in amount is $25,000."

We can do better: To save in bitcoins, you don't have to prove your net worth, it can in fact be negative, nobody cares, just draw a note up from your pocket and convert it to a fraction of a bitcoin, you can do it now, you don't have to wait until the banks open.

[seleme]

Fidelity stopped accepting BTC, there was some link here earlier today.

[seleme]

I'm going back to my precious alts trading, I'm tired of btc vs usd one and I'm shit in it.

[solarflare]

I'm thinking of going full fiat right now. To buy back at a lower price (hopefully) 

[ShroomsKit]

I'm thinking of going full fiat right now. To buy back at a lower price (hopefully) 

Please do.

[Carra23]

I'm thinking of going full fiat right now. To buy back at a lower price (hopefully) 

I am going into fiat now too.

[seleme]

I do have 30k+ fiat left, I won't buy now too whatever happens. If I'd stay left behind, I'll just cash it out, I'm due to some cash out anyway from BTC, did only 2k$ so far.