Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[damiano]

Anyone care to guess the bottom on this one?

[MAbtc]

Were in for another sell off

With which coins?

www.blockchained.com

For the first time, ask volume decreased during the crash, proving that the sells were pure panic. By this time after the november, 900-450 crashcorrection, ask volume had doubled and reached eventually triple the magnitude. In april it also skyrocketed to 4-5 times the initial value.  Now it shows absolutely no will to even get back to pre-crash levels.

Honestly, I'm at a loss for how ask depth is a useful indicator here. We have no idea how many coins are waiting in the wings, off the books. And we don't know the extent of arbitrage being done by Chinese traders.

^This. I still can't believe there's such a huge gap between Gox & BTC China. May not be so easy to arbitrage. But was there always a 100 difference between prices?

BTCchina used to be higher than gox as I remember it.  by quite a bit.  now it's 100 lower.

Arbitrage has never been possible between the western and the Chinese exchange, the only one bragging about how he was doing arbitrage was rpietila, demonstrating how he's just full of shit.

Are we sure about that?

Yes. If arbitrage was possible we wouldn't have such spreads, the market would immediately take care of them. Arbitrage is risk free profit, if it's possible to have it you exploit it.

And btw, I respectfully proved how rpietila was not making "arbitrage" between China and Stamp, but he deleted all my posts.

The problem is that you cannot efficiently move fiat between exchanges.

I get that. I am talking about Chinese traders taking coins from BTCChina to dump on western exchanges. Is there any conceivable way to do this and cash out their fiat?

I figure such spreads are possible for small periods of time -- during times of very high volatility on BTCchina-- at the very least, until arbitrage traders closed them up. But I just don't know if it's even a possibility.

[o3u]

Anyone care to guess the bottom on this one?

bout tree fiddy

[samsam]

Anyone care to guess the bottom on this one?

Hard to guess since China is still asleep. Sub-500 for sure.

When they wake up and see the price on the non-Chinese exchanges the fun will really begin.

[adamstgBit]

Anyone care to guess the bottom on this one?

499

[barbs]

BTC is here to stay. We all love money and exponential growth but sometimes we need a good dose of cold hard reality and that's what we're getting now. A month ago I couldn't believe 350$ let alone 500 or 1000. I see it as a rocket that has misfired and needs some time in the hangar being tweaked before the next launch. That's what we missed about April (I missed) that was a clear sign saying hey dont ignore me. I'm not going to throw in the towel because a bunch of Chinese punks did. Everyone has money in different countries, we don't need to be driven by a peoples with a government known for shady currency policy.

Do you have a trading plan for both scenarios up and down ? I do, if the price goes to half I will be flat on my profit to date with fiat on the side, if the price goes to 700 I'll be buying back in at a nice btc profit from my trades today.

Get yourself in a position where you're prepared for both scenarios. Don't listen to anyone on this site. Don't make moves over small 40$ swings stick to your plan for both cases.

The volatility provides you with many opportunities whatever the price.

[Rampion]

Were in for another sell off

With which coins?

www.blockchained.com

For the first time, ask volume decreased during the crash, proving that the sells were pure panic. By this time after the november, 900-450 crashcorrection, ask volume had doubled and reached eventually triple the magnitude. In april it also skyrocketed to 4-5 times the initial value.  Now it shows absolutely no will to even get back to pre-crash levels.

Honestly, I'm at a loss for how ask depth is a useful indicator here. We have no idea how many coins are waiting in the wings, off the books. And we don't know the extent of arbitrage being done by Chinese traders.

^This. I still can't believe there's such a huge gap between Gox & BTC China. May not be so easy to arbitrage. But was there always a 100 difference between prices?

BTCchina used to be higher than gox as I remember it.  by quite a bit.  now it's 100 lower.

Arbitrage has never been possible between the western and the Chinese exchange, the only one bragging about how he was doing arbitrage was rpietila, demonstrating how he's just full of shit.

Are we sure about that?

Yes. If arbitrage was possible we wouldn't have such spreads, the market would immediately take care of them. Arbitrage is risk free profit, if it's possible to have it you exploit it.

And btw, I respectfully proved how rpietila was not making "arbitrage" between China and Stamp, but he deleted all my posts.

The problem is that you cannot efficiently move fiat between exchanges.

http://reuters.com/article/2013/12/11/us-china-bitcoin-idUKBRE9BA0B020131211

The spread between china and stamp/Gox has been consistently big. Exchanging RMB for USD cheaply and efficiently its complicate for "foreign traders". In fact, on rpietilas post I politely asked him to explain how he managed to move fiat between western and China exchange. He answered that he didn't, his way of doing "arbitrage" was buying low on stamp, selling high on BTCChina, and then patiently waiting for the spread to go to 0 or near 0, to then buy the coins on China again and sell them on stamp.

I guess that anybody with half a brain understands that has nothing to do with arbitrage. Arbitrage needs to be quasi immediate and risk free by definition. The above process is not risk free at all: you need to bet on the spread going at 0 or near 0 (and you need to waste resources monitoring that), and what happens if in the meantime the price doubles? That you lost half of your coins, that's not arbitrage.

Don't believe what Reuters writes - they are clueless. Probably the "journalist" documented himself by reading Risto's delusional ramblings, or checking the BTC-E troll box. There is one hard cold fact that proves that arbitrages between exchanges is not possible: the spread is consistently high among ALL of them. When arbitrage is possible, the spread is zero - full stop.

[Sitarow]

Anyone care to guess the bottom on this one?

Die hard nay sayers say sub $200

[ChartBuddy]

[Rampion]

Anyone care to guess the bottom on this one?

Die hard nay sayers say sub $200

$298 for me.

[jojo69]

guys, the bottom is in

[mellowyellow]

Anyone care to guess the bottom on this one?

Die hard nay sayers say sub $200

$298 for me.

$238

[pickard]

Anyone care to guess the bottom on this one?

Die hard nay sayers say sub $200

$298 for me.

$297 on btce  

[adamstgBit]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9tKkDJt2Vc

[byronbb]

I get that. I am talking about Chinese traders taking coins from BTCChina to dump on western exchanges. Is there any conceivable way to do this and cash out their fiat?

If they have friends or family offshore then it's easy. Of course now that BTCCHina is dealing the lowest price they would be losing $$.

[SheHadMANHands]

Depressing: Lost ~$50k this crash (in btc) thus far.

Somewhat Uplifting: Before Bitcoin, didn't have 50k to lose.  

I'm over it.  Bitcoin will recover (as it has 5x times already).  It's one resilient SOB.  

[BitChick]

guys, the bottom is in

For what it's worth I concur.

I am a "hodler" though.  

[I_bitcoin]

Anyone care to guess the bottom on this one?

Die hard nay sayers say sub $200

$298 for me.

$238

$350

You guys are funny, I am busy trying to figure out if I should by more now.   I got a sweet deal already but perhaps buying some more would be nice.

[OldGeek]

Anyone care to guess the bottom on this one?

256.375

I actually don't have as much of a clue as anyone else.  However, watching BTC-e bounce around leads me to the following conclusion:  The current pattern is a damping ringing oscillator with decreasing amplitudes and decreasing frequencies.  Thus we have more down prices coming.

I fervently wish for the bottom to get here and the next up trend get started.  Go XBT.

[Nightowlace]

Well I just consulted my trading team and asked them if I should by more bitcoins or wait for a lower price? They have analyzed the information available and said "Buy more bitcoins daddy". When all else fails you listen to the 5 and two year olds. They know what's up!