Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

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[OldGeek]

An oscillation is normal after a largish price move.  The pendulum always swings too far and traders recognize it.  They place orders to take advantage of the folks who overshot the target.  An equilibrium is reached and the general trend of the market usually resumes.

The bot traffic seems to be reinforcing the damping effect and the operators seem to be positioning their orders to take advantage of the unwary.

But what do I know?

[Davyd05]

any movement = rocket fuel for me

[nanobrain]

they have a point nan

when I woke up this morning there were 50 pages unread

just can't keep up

Yeah, sorry for being a grumpy old mare.

OK, well the gist of it isn't great.

I was pretty bullish about getting RMB out of China and after the "fall of the wall" considered getting funds into China…all in the sake of arb.

However, the communication I had with BTChina was fruitless.
I tried via Bank of China in Australia but they wont play and I tried via some of my HK contacts but again BTChina said no, only mainland China bank branches.

So, I guess Loaded is going to hit them over the head with a suitcase of money…see if that changes their position.

EDIT: One other thing to add is that BitPirate rmbtb exchange was amenable (lets say) but I haven't heard anything from him lately...I am really interested in what his take is on recent developments.

[macsga]

An oscillation is normal after a largish price move.  The pendulum always swings too far and traders recognize it.  They place orders to take advantage of the folks who overshot the target.  An equilibrium is reached and the general trend of the market usually resumes.

The bot traffic seems to be reinforcing the damping effect and the operators seem to be positioning their orders to take advantage of the unwary.

But what do I know?

I cannot say how much I agree

[jojo69]

ummmmm

pop?

[nanobrain]

The answer is arbitrage.

Tell me how you'd do it, please.

Would this work:

  * Buy BTC with USD outside China
  * Sell the BTC in China for RMB
  * Use the RMB to buy goods or stock in Chinese market
  * Sell goods/stock outside China for USD

or the other way around.   Not for amateurs, of course.

This would equalize prices but according to some "exchange rate" that is not the official one, due to extra costs.

Which is what we see, right? They track each other but not at the official exchange rate.

Yes until your btcChina account gets frozen  

Has your account been frozen?
I've been trying to change my phone number and they have gone all silent on me...coins stuck on there...getting a bit fidgety.

[bassclef]

I've taken this time to liberally use the ignore button to single out sock puppets and troll fudsters.

Apologies if I inadvertently included you. Seems they're getting desperate.

[seriouscoin]

 

[seleme]

haha, I'm getting closer to that, have to review that screenshot and add some to my ignore collection.

I am going to ignore anyone who is posting either bullish or bearish knee jerk thoughts outside of this thread.

[OldGeek]

An oscillation is normal after a largish price move.  The pendulum always swings too far and traders recognize it.  They place orders to take advantage of the folks who overshot the target.  An equilibrium is reached and the general trend of the market usually resumes.

The bot traffic seems to be reinforcing the damping effect and the operators seem to be positioning their orders to take advantage of the unwary.

But what do I know?

I cannot say how much I agree

Nice explanation macsga!  Hey, I just got in line with the physics guy.  Cool.  I like the string theory stuff.

Back to business:

If my idea is correct, I witnessed one of the operators make ~64k USD in about half an hour.  His bots dampened the oscillations downward then made three buys, igniting green candles for the first time in a while.  When the sheep got on board with the upswing, he sold in four batches at very near the top. 

Who knows.  I love a good conspiracy theory.

[seriouscoin]

haha, I'm getting closer to that, have to review that screenshot and add some to my ignore collection.

I am going to ignore anyone who is posting either bullish or bearish knee jerk thoughts outside of this thread.

Please ignore me..... i'm a bull pretend to be a bear that post bullish comments as a reversed psychology tactic. !!!!!  

[Adrian-x]

The answer is arbitrage.

Tell me how you'd do it, please.

Would this work:

  * Buy BTC with USD outside China
  * Sell the BTC in China for RMB
  * Use the RMB to buy goods or stock in Chinese market
  * Sell goods/stock outside China for USD

or the other way around.   Not for amateurs, of course.

This would equalize prices but according to some "exchange rate" that is not the official one, due to extra costs.

Which is what we see, right? They track each other but not at the official exchange rate.

Yes until your btcChina account gets frozen  

Has your account been frozen?
I've been trying to change my phone number and they have gone all silent on me...coins stuck on there...getting a bit fidgety.

My XBT Withdrawal made yesterday was held back and this evening I was blocked from RMB and XBT withdrawals. (My account reflects my balances but withdrawals are frozen for now.)

[bassclef]

haha, I'm getting closer to that, have to review that screenshot and add some to my ignore collection.

I am going to ignore anyone who is posting either bullish or bearish knee jerk thoughts outside of this thread.

I lurk so I've a pretty good idea of the regulars. I'm also a writer so I recognize certain language patterns.

It's not hard, just ask yourself if there's an individual behind the username.

[OldGeek]

they have a point nan

when I woke up this morning there were 50 pages unread

just can't keep up

Yeah, sorry for being a grumpy old mare.

OK, well the gist of it isn't great.

I was pretty bullish about getting RMB out of China and after the "fall of the wall" considered getting funds into China…all in the sake of arb.

However, the communication I had with BTChina was fruitless.
I tried via Bank of China in Australia but they wont play and I tried via some of my HK contacts but again BTChina said no, only mainland China bank branches.

So, I guess Loaded is going to hit them over the head with a suitcase of money…see if that changes their position.

EDIT: One other thing to add is that BitPirate rmbtb exchange was amenable (lets say) but I haven't heard anything from him lately...I am really interested in what his take is on recent developments.

Thank you Nan.

So, to follow this a little further:  You need to have a physical account in China.  You would also need a physical account in Japan.  Am I close?

[seriouscoin]

An oscillation is normal after a largish price move.  The pendulum always swings too far and traders recognize it.  They place orders to take advantage of the folks who overshot the target.  An equilibrium is reached and the general trend of the market usually resumes.

The bot traffic seems to be reinforcing the damping effect and the operators seem to be positioning their orders to take advantage of the unwary.

But what do I know?

I cannot say how much I agree

Nice explanation macsga!  Hey, I just got in line with the physics guy.  Cool.  I like the string theory stuff.

Back to business:

If my idea is correct, I witnessed one of the operators make ~64k USD in about half an hour.  His bots dampened the oscillations downward then made three buys, igniting green candles for the first time in a while.  When the sheep got on board with the upswing, he sold in four batches at very near the top. 

Who knows.  I love a good conspiracy theory.

Thats why i've been saying TA is a self-fullfilled prophecy.... the more ppl use it talk about it the more "real" it become and thus.... manipulator will skin you....

If i want TA trolls, i would be on Elitetrader forums.....a heaven for TA charts and future predictions.

[macsga]

An oscillation is normal after a largish price move.  The pendulum always swings too far and traders recognize it.  They place orders to take advantage of the folks who overshot the target.  An equilibrium is reached and the general trend of the market usually resumes.

The bot traffic seems to be reinforcing the damping effect and the operators seem to be positioning their orders to take advantage of the unwary.

But what do I know?

I cannot say how much I agree

Nice explanation macsga!  Hey, I just got in line with the physics guy.  Cool.  I like the string theory stuff.

Back to business:

If my idea is correct, I witnessed one of the operators make ~64k USD in about half an hour.  His bots dampened the oscillations downward then made three buys, igniting green candles for the first time in a while.  When the sheep got on board with the upswing, he sold in four batches at very near the top. 

Who knows.  I love a good conspiracy theory.

Too many "conspiracy theories" tend to be presented like this so the people won't take them seriously. Physics isn't lying though; certain equations can predict certain behaviours and if you reverse engineer the values, you will see this is not something that's "totally" unpredictable. That said; there's definitely the possibility someone has already done his/her homework and made a LOT of coins out of it...

[seleme]

haha, I'm getting closer to that, have to review that screenshot and add some to my ignore collection.

I am going to ignore anyone who is posting either bullish or bearish knee jerk thoughts outside of this thread.

Please ignore me..... i'm a bull pretend to be a bear that post bullish comments as a reversed psychology tactic. !!!!!  

as long as you post it here, you'll probably be fine 

[CryptStorm]

An oscillation is normal after a largish price move.  The pendulum always swings too far and traders recognize it.  They place orders to take advantage of the folks who overshot the target.  An equilibrium is reached and the general trend of the market usually resumes.

The bot traffic seems to be reinforcing the damping effect and the operators seem to be positioning their orders to take advantage of the unwary.

But what do I know?

Well put! Thanks, that makes sense.

[nanobrain]

they have a point nan

when I woke up this morning there were 50 pages unread

just can't keep up

Yeah, sorry for being a grumpy old mare.

OK, well the gist of it isn't great.

I was pretty bullish about getting RMB out of China and after the "fall of the wall" considered getting funds into China…all in the sake of arb.

However, the communication I had with BTChina was fruitless.
I tried via Bank of China in Australia but they wont play and I tried via some of my HK contacts but again BTChina said no, only mainland China bank branches.

So, I guess Loaded is going to hit them over the head with a suitcase of money…see if that changes their position.

EDIT: One other thing to add is that BitPirate rmbtb exchange was amenable (lets say) but I haven't heard anything from him lately...I am really interested in what his take is on recent developments.

Thank you Nan.

So, to follow this a little further:  You need to have a physical account in China.  You would also need a physical account in Japan.  Am I close?

You need to have an account with a branch in mainland China (Hong Kong and Macau are not considered 'mainland'); so Bank of China has branches here in Oz but they won't transfer money via one of their China branches to BTChina.

Er...not sure where Japan comes in.