Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JorgeStolfi]

For that, you need to understand not Bitcoin but the world of fiat. I suggest looking into the Weimar republic, a lot of graphs that have gone very steep recently, Zimbabwe trillion dollar bills, Cyprus, the works of Ron Paul and F.A.Hayek and friends.

I am Brazilian. I will spare you the history of Brazilian inflation, suffices to say that the currency was devaluated by a factor of 2.75 quintillion (2.75 x 10¹⁸) in my lifetime. So I do know something about the world of "fiat". 

Here is a reminder: Man buys $27 of bitcoin, forgets about them, finds they're now worth $886k

Yes, IF I knew at the time that bitcoins were going to appreciate that way, I would certainly have bought them.  Ditto for gold or Apple stock. But with my luck I would probably have invested in Enron or the Madoff fund instead...

But right now Bitcoin does not look like such a good investment, does it?   It may be a gold mine for day traders, but to prosper one must be smarter and quicker than all the other smart guys, which I am not. 

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[600watt]

Sorry for the off-topic, but does anyone know a good/cheap/safe way to transfer credit card money to regular bank account money (US)?  Or to bitcoins?  Trying to help out a friend.

Open a bluebird.com account, buy a vanilla reload with card, load and transfer to bank account. $3.95 per $500, much cheaper than cash advance/balance transfer fees.

Something has to do with this??? 
http://www.coindesk.com/colorado-marijuana-dispensary-bitcoin-evade-federal-laws/

J/K of course. It was far too tempting

Guys, do. you even realize it ?!?

C o l o r a d o will be next china!

the folks will literally SMOKE UP tons of bitcoin ! 

[Ducky1]

But right now Bitcoin does not look like such a good investment, does it?   It may be a gold mine for day traders, but to prosper one must be smarter and quicker than all the other smart guys, which I am not. 

If you buy now, and bitcoin becomes the success many of us believe, you are in before 99.98% of the worlds population

[windjc]

For that, you need to understand not Bitcoin but the world of fiat. I suggest looking into the Weimar republic, a lot of graphs that have gone very steep recently, Zimbabwe trillion dollar bills, Cyprus, the works of Ron Paul and F.A.Hayek and friends.

I am Brazilian. I will spare you the history of Brazilian inflation, suffices to say that the currency was devaluated by a factor of 2.75 quintillion (2.75 x 10¹⁸) in my lifetime. So I do know something about the world of "fiat". 

Here is a reminder: Man buys $27 of bitcoin, forgets about them, finds they're now worth $886k

Yes, IF I knew at the time that bitcoins were going to appreciate that way, I would certainly have bought them.  Ditto for gold or Apple stock. But with my luck I would probably have invested in Enron or the Madoff fund instead...

But right now Bitcoin does not look like such a good investment, does it?   It may be a gold mine for day traders, but to prosper one must be smarter and quicker than all the other smart guys, which I am not. 

Actually, I think most of the people trading bitcoin believe that if it continues on its trajectory of adoption, it will be worth 6 figures in the next handful of years. The Winkelvoss twins and many others in the VC community have put the small bull cap of $400,000 per bitcoin.

So, $850 would be a real bargain actually.

[BitChick]

But right now Bitcoin does not look like such a good investment, does it?   It may be a gold mine for day traders, but to prosper one must be smarter and quicker than all the other smart guys, which I am not. 

I think right now is a great time to invest. $900 will seem like the greatest deal ever when the price hits $10,000.  Many people are fairly confident we are headed there too.  There are reasons for this and it is not just wishful thinking.

Invest what you can afford to lose as soon as you possibly can and hold for a year or two.

[Dragonkiller]

For that, you need to understand not Bitcoin but the world of fiat. I suggest looking into the Weimar republic, a lot of graphs that have gone very steep recently, Zimbabwe trillion dollar bills, Cyprus, the works of Ron Paul and F.A.Hayek and friends.

I am Brazilian. I will spare you the history of Brazilian inflation, suffices to say that the currency was devaluated by a factor of 2.75 quintillion (2.75 x 10¹⁸) in my lifetime. So I do know something about the world of "fiat". 

Here is a reminder: Man buys $27 of bitcoin, forgets about them, finds they're now worth $886k

Yes, IF I knew at the time that bitcoins were going to appreciate that way, I would certainly have bought them.  Ditto for gold or Apple stock. But with my luck I would probably have invested in Enron or the Madoff fund instead...

But right now Bitcoin does not look like such a good investment, does it?   It may be a gold mine for day traders, but to prosper one must be smarter and quicker than all the other smart guys, which I am not. 

so you think bitcoin has reached its maximum potential value?

[JorgeStolfi]

You do not need consumption or destruction of bitcoins. The demand is reservation demand, and only reservation demand. This is the characteristic of pure money, money that is not at the same time some useful commodity.

That is one of the things I still don't understand.  Suppose that Bitcoin is used to make payments equivalent to a total of M dollars per day, worldwide.  How does one derive from that number a "base value" (market price apart from speculation) for 1 BTC in dollars?

[Dragonkiller]

For that, you need to understand not Bitcoin but the world of fiat. I suggest looking into the Weimar republic, a lot of graphs that have gone very steep recently, Zimbabwe trillion dollar bills, Cyprus, the works of Ron Paul and F.A.Hayek and friends.

I am Brazilian. I will spare you the history of Brazilian inflation, suffices to say that the currency was devaluated by a factor of 2.75 quintillion (2.75 x 10¹⁸) in my lifetime. So I do know something about the world of "fiat". 

Here is a reminder: Man buys $27 of bitcoin, forgets about them, finds they're now worth $886k

Yes, IF I knew at the time that bitcoins were going to appreciate that way, I would certainly have bought them.  Ditto for gold or Apple stock. But with my luck I would probably have invested in Enron or the Madoff fund instead...

But right now Bitcoin does not look like such a good investment, does it?   It may be a gold mine for day traders, but to prosper one must be smarter and quicker than all the other smart guys, which I am not. 

Actually, I think most of the people trading bitcoin believe that if it continues on its trajectory of adoption, it will be worth 6 figures in the next handful of years. The Winkelvoss twins and many others in the VC community have put the small bull cap of $400,000 per bitcoin.

So, $850 would be a real bargain actually.

The twins said small bull case is $40k per coin, but yeah, your point is still valid

[MAbtc]

I'm drinking early today


Or maybe


 

[JorgeStolfi]

so you think bitcoin has reached its maximum potential value?

Since the market price is now largely determined by the combined expectations of all traders, with no clear "base value", is hard to predict which way it will go.  My feeling is that it will not rise much above its all-time high of ~1200 USD.

But of course it is just a feeling, although I believe it is justified by what I understand of economy and politics.

[solarflare]

Here is a reminder: Man buys $27 of bitcoin, forgets about them, finds they're now worth $886k

Yes, IF I knew at the time that bitcoins were going to appreciate that way, I would certainly have bought them.  Ditto for gold or Apple stock. But with my luck I would probably have invested in Enron or the Madoff fund instead...

But right now Bitcoin does not look like such a good investment, does it?   It may be a gold mine for day traders, but to prosper one must be smarter and quicker than all the other smart guys, which I am not. 

Like most people who can afford a computer and an internet connection, I spend more than $10 a day on stuff I don't need.
So I really didn't think you would consider $10 an investment (or could not afford to lose them).
My bad.

[solarflare]

You do not need consumption or destruction of bitcoins. The demand is reservation demand, and only reservation demand. This is the characteristic of pure money, money that is not at the same time some useful commodity.

That is one of the things I still don't understand.  Suppose that Bitcoin is used to make payments equivalent to a total of M dollars per day, worldwide.  How does one derive from that number a "base value" (market price apart from speculation) for 1 BTC in dollars?

Supply and demand and what people think it's worth.
Also, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_discovery

[virtualfaqs]

3. I can't sleep at night when all my money is in BTC, but I can when it's in fiat.

Stop loss orders work for me.

Doesn't work for me. I'd rather let the market run rather then not making an informed decision while I'm asleep. I think there in lies the problem. I just care too much when my money is in BTC and have to check charts, price, FUD, every minute. I'm not 100% fiat obviously. Just enough that I'm not forced to check 24/7.

Methinks that 1800 dollars is too much money to gamble. (My betting limit is a pizza and a beer, and I have made only three or four such bets in my life.)  I would rather spend that money on tools or other grown-up toys.

I am not a betting person either so I get this.  I used to think that Bitcoin was a bit of a gamble but as time has gone on I have come to realize that in a strange way, our fiat is a gamble too.  Pretty much everything we have our money invested in has some risks.  Real estate can lose value, even gold and silver fluctuate in value, although it can hold value better than some things.  Nothing in life is a "sure thing."  The wise person makes educated guesses and puts money where there is less risk in doing so I believe.

So far Bitcoin has shown to be the best store of value I have ever had the opportunity to have though.  I am rethinking how I look at things because of this.  The coins are the last resort we use when we need funds.  Unfortunately it looks like we will have to sell one in the next week to pay some bills thanks to a bigger than expected credit card bill because of Christmas and some extra curricular activities for the kids.  Maybe I am too optimistic about where BTC is going?  I am not sure, but I would way rather hold them right now if at all possible.

Timing is everything when it comes to investments. Like you said market goes "up" and "down" and you want to tap that resource on your terms not when you have to make a desperate fiat conversion. Take more risks when the money has little chance of being needed and put something away long term. Even US taxes hurt if you need the money right away because you'll be losing another 10% on short term Capital gains.

[BitChick]

so you think bitcoin has reached its maximum potential value?

Since the market price is now largely determined by the combined expectations of all traders, with no clear "base value", is hard to predict which way it will go.  My feeling is that it will not rise much above its all-time high of ~1200 USD.

But of course it is just a feeling, although I believe it is justified by what I understand of economy and politics.

There were plenty of people with a "feeling" that bitcoin would never see $10, $100 or $1000.  Just keep that in mind. 

[solarflare]

3. I can't sleep at night when all my money is in BTC, but I can when it's in fiat.

Stop loss orders work for me.

Doesn't work for me. I'd rather let the market run rather then not making an informed decision while I'm asleep. I think there in lies the problem. I just care too much when my money is in BTC and have to check charts, price, FUD, every minute. I'm not 100% fiat obviously. Just enough that I'm not forced to check 24/7.

Oh yeah, you still have to check the market regularly in order to move your stops (so they are kind-of-informed stop-losses).

[hyphymikey]

3. I can't sleep at night when all my money is in BTC, but I can when it's in fiat.

Stop loss orders work for me.

Doesn't work for me. I'd rather let the market run rather then not making an informed decision while I'm asleep. I think there in lies the problem. I just care too much when my money is in BTC and have to check charts, price, FUD, every minute. I'm not 100% fiat obviously. Just enough that I'm not forced to check 24/7.

Hodling until the days of an extremely high price, or a time when volatility is extremely low, will be well worth the stress involved.

If you are a day trader, then the stress is part of the job with this market.

I might be the first person to go bald due to stress caused by bitcoin lol. I had 95% of my savings in bitcoin by the end of February, so I've been on a hell of a ride since then (currently dissolved).

[Dragonkiller]

so you think bitcoin has reached its maximum potential value?

Since the market price is now largely determined by the combined expectations of all traders, with no clear "base value", is hard to predict which way it will go.  My feeling is that it will not rise much above its all-time high of ~1200 USD.

But of course it is just a feeling, although I believe it is justified by what I understand of economy and politics.

but the market is always determined by the combined expectations of all traders. so after the april all time high of ~$260, you could have said the same thing. literally every time the price has risen, people have felt like they've missed out, but then the price increases again.

there is great asymmetry of information with bitcoin; it is not an established market that has been around for years and years. most of the world do not even know what it is, and the majority of those who have heard of it do not understand the potential it has.

[Patel]

We hodl together, we sodl together. Speculators for life.

[billyjoeallen]

so you think bitcoin has reached its maximum potential value?

Since the market price is now largely determined by the combined expectations of all traders, with no clear "base value", is hard to predict which way it will go.  My feeling is that it will not rise much above its all-time high of ~1200 USD.

But of course it is just a feeling, although I believe it is justified by what I understand of economy and politics.

Has your understanding of economy and politics changed since you started watching bitcoin? are your convictions stronger or weaker?  When new information come along, you can either learn or rationalize. two years ago, even here on this forum, the doubters were many and loud. the eventually leave and new doubters show up. Never saw even a single on admit he was wrong, so rationalizing rather than learning seems to be the normal reaction. But it's the few who are capable of learning who will change the world. 1%/year  is huge.  Future economists will look at today's mainstream economists the way today's doctors look at witchdoctors. The Austrians are being validated and it causes much consternation and cognitive dissonance amongst the statist econoboobs. entertainment and profit. it's win-win for me :-)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation