Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[VB1001]

"What Is Bitcoin?"
Topped Google's 2018 What Asked Trending List
The most searched definition in the U.S. and U.K. in 2018

Do not worry about the price.
The rocket will be ready soon.



https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/what-is-bitcoin-topped-google-s-2018-what-asked-trending-list-1.1182297https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/what-is-bitcoin-topped-google-s-2018-what-asked-trending-list-1.1182297

[El duderino_]

Except for Craig Wright.

who??

Nobody important.

hey jimbo btw write down your price guess

[JimboToronto]

Every court including WO has to have a jester.  Craig plays that role with his outrageous claims. He should be thanked (not ridiculed) for stepping up to the role. Go Craig baby.

Fair enough, except that a jester actually tries to be funny. C.W just bumbles his way into being a joke.

I think he's less of a jester and more of a laughingstock.  

hey jimbo btw write down your price guess

Which price? Did I miss something?

[JayJuanGee]

There is a theme being propagated on interwebs that bitcoin will never be able to get from under negative price pressure from CME/CBOE futures (which are cash-settled). Apparently, it happened multiple times before with other commodities.

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

Personally, i don't fully buy that doom-and-gloom scenario because other cryptos did not have futures, yet declined even more, hence not a clear cut picture.

Would btc-settled futures like bakkt and/or 'physical' ETF objectively helpful in this fight or not?

Of course, if some some major fiat currency would experience hyperinflation, then btc would benefit, but this scenario is not very conducive to day-to-day life.

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).

Seems to me that you have to buy BTC in order to sell them, so can be a question regarding how long these folks can continue to get BTC to sell to send the price down, even if settled in dollars , aren't the shorts going to get reckt as some point if people are not willing to sell their BTC and there is not enough BTC to fuel the various contracts that are settled in dollars?

[El duderino_]

Every court including WO has to have a jester.  Craig plays that role with his outrageous claims. He should be thanked (not ridiculed) for stepping up to the role. Go Craig baby.

Fair enough, except that a jester actually tries to be funny. C.W just bumbles his way into being a joke.

I think he's less of a jester and more of a laughingstock.  

hey jimbo btw write down your price guess

Which price? Did I miss something?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5083242.0

yes

[JayJuanGee]

I really have absolutely no fucking idea what the price is gonna do next.

It's easy.

Micgoossens = dumb money
JayJuanGee = stupid money
Elwar = insane money

Just do the opposite of whatever they're doing.

That doing the opposite worked really well for you roach?  When you sold all of your bitcoins in the sub $600 price arenas?  Be honest, relatively speaking, how's that "doing the opposite" working for you?

[VB1001]

Read the article, it's interesting.

Bitcoin – Big Wallet Moves, But Not Big Price Spreads on Today’s Market

https://warriortradingnews.com/2018/12/12/bitcoin-big-wallet-moves-but-not-big-price-spreads-on-todays-market/

[Wekkel]

Except for Craig Wright.

who??

Nobody important.

An opinion. You know what that's worth nowadays 

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

There is a theme being propagated on interwebs that bitcoin will never be able to get from under negative price pressure from CME/CBOE futures (which are cash-settled). Apparently, it happened multiple times before with other commodities.

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

Personally, i don't fully buy that doom-and-gloom scenario because other cryptos did not have futures, yet declined even more, hence not a clear cut picture.

Would btc-settled futures like bakkt and/or 'physical' ETF objectively helpful in this fight or not?

Of course, if some some major fiat currency would experience hyperinflation, then btc would benefit, but this scenario is not very conducive to day-to-day life.

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).

It'd be very clear cut if Bitcoin really got tanked due to futures (which I don't buy into, since they're basically like those Turkish betting parlors all over Europe).

But let's assume that was the case, then altcoins would inevitably follow suit because the majority of their volume is denominated in BTC and thus directly following Bitcoin's price.

Furthermore, if there's any indicator that Bitcoin will be tanking it would be fairly easy to short alts for fiat and then rebuy alts at a cheaper per BTC rate with cheaper Bitcoins (obviously comes with elevated risks).

Basically, Bitcoin down = make double the money by shorting shitcoins. So the connection between futures tanking Bitcoin and altcoins tanking even more is crystal clear once you crunch the numbers.

Again though, I don't buy that futures had anything to do with anything. They were just there at the "right" time to appear to be relevant. You don't rally from 1k to 19k without a massive correction.

[VB1001]

Example of CME Group:

When compared to the rest of the contracts traded on the exchange operator worldwide, Bitcoin futures are insignificant, weighing only 0.03% of all trading at CME Group.

[Biodom]

There is a theme being propagated on interwebs that bitcoin will never be able to get from under negative price pressure from CME/CBOE futures (which are cash-settled). Apparently, it happened multiple times before with other commodities.

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

Personally, i don't fully buy that doom-and-gloom scenario because other cryptos did not have futures, yet declined even more, hence not a clear cut picture.

Would btc-settled futures like bakkt and/or 'physical' ETF objectively helpful in this fight or not?

Of course, if some some major fiat currency would experience hyperinflation, then btc would benefit, but this scenario is not very conducive to day-to-day life.

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).

Seems to me that you have to buy BTC in order to sell them, so can be a question regarding how long these folks can continue to get BTC to sell to send the price down, even if settled in dollars , aren't the shorts going to get reckt as some point if people are not willing to sell their BTC and there is not enough BTC to fuel the various contracts that are settled in dollars?

Nope, you don't need to do anything with the underlying (bitcoin) in order to buy/sell futures, which settle in cash (not bitcoin).
Same occurs on the stock market where since 1987 PPT regularly buys S&P500 futures (during crashes) to bring the underlying S&P up.
They save the money this way, lol. It's $-efficient.

[JimboToronto]

Which price? Did I miss something?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5083242.0

yes

Cool. Thanks.

$7900

[Biodom]

Which price? Did I miss something?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5083242.0

yes

Cool. Thanks.

$7900

wrong thread to give the $ number for the bakkt game.

[Deeyoh]

Aww man, there's a 1300 buy spoof order on Bitfinex.  Looks like we'll drop.    Hate when they do that, it always goes the opposite direction.  Except when they put the big sells in then everyone dumps. DOH

[HairyMaclairy]

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

Yes.  

You need to understand the distinction between absolute scarcity and relative scarcity.   https://sfugeog322.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/absolute-and-relative-scarcity/

None of the other commodities which are controlled by the futures market have absolute scarcity.  Gold can easily be mined, pigs can be bred, marginal cropping land can grow more corn.

Many of us, including many on this wall, are now dedicated to slowly, gently buying physical all the way down, no matter how deep it goes or for how long. Holders of last resort will create conditions of absolute scarcity.  

The reality is that the poor performance of gold and silver markets is a reflection of poor organic demand for precious metals, combined with elastic supply.  People like Roach blow this up into a global conspiracy so that they can avoid taking responsibility for their own poor investment decisions.  There is undoubtedly short term manipulation in almost all markets, but whales can only push the price in directions that the price already wants to go.  

For the record I do not think that the current downward price pressure on Bitcoin is a manipulation. I think it is a perfectly natural and organic reaction to a blow off top.

[Last of the V8s]

cash-settled futures are a tiny fraction of okex and bitmex futures volume
reduction in supply and eventual supply shock mitigates shorting
nothing to worry about in the medium-long term

https://twitter.com/whalepool/status/1042523941825339392
edit: old

here is current https://austeritysucks.com/premiumcatcher.php

[HairyMaclairy]

Aww man, there's a 1300 buy spoof order on Bitfinex.  Looks like we'll drop.    Hate when they do that, it always goes the opposite direction.  Except when they put the big sells in then everyone dumps. DOH

It’s because walls are made of magnets. 

[JayJuanGee]

There is a theme being propagated on interwebs that bitcoin will never be able to get from under negative price pressure from CME/CBOE futures (which are cash-settled). Apparently, it happened multiple times before with other commodities.

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

Personally, i don't fully buy that doom-and-gloom scenario because other cryptos did not have futures, yet declined even more, hence not a clear cut picture.

Would btc-settled futures like bakkt and/or 'physical' ETF objectively helpful in this fight or not?

Of course, if some some major fiat currency would experience hyperinflation, then btc would benefit, but this scenario is not very conducive to day-to-day life.

I would prefer to think about how we can use intrinsic bitcoin properties to fight CME/CBOE pushing us down (in price).

Seems to me that you have to buy BTC in order to sell them, so can be a question regarding how long these folks can continue to get BTC to sell to send the price down, even if settled in dollars , aren't the shorts going to get reckt as some point if people are not willing to sell their BTC and there is not enough BTC to fuel the various contracts that are settled in dollars?

Nope, you don't need to do anything with the underlying (bitcoin) in order to buy/sell futures, which settle in cash (not bitcoin).
Same occurs on the stock market where since 1987 PPT regularly buys S&P500 futures (during crashes) to bring the underlying S&P up.
They save the money this way, lol. It's $-efficient.

I guess that I don't understand then.

I don't see how you can get the price to go down without selling and no one willing to buy at that price, so the price goes lower and lower, until someone is willing to buy BTC at that price. 

Doesn't matter if you are settling in dollars, you still have to sell BTC to get the BTC price do go down and have no buyers.  If you have no BTC, then you cannot sell them.  Of course, we get into factional BTC, and I understand some of that fractional BTC can occur, up to a point that some buyers, when the buy, are going to want to have the real BTC, rather than a paper claim.  It is easier to claim your BTC than it is with a large number of other assets, including stocks and gold.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

Q to WO crowd: do you think that bitcoin does (or doesn't) have some futures fighting mitigation strategy?

Yes.  

You need to understand the distinction between absolute scarcity and relative scarcity.   https://sfugeog322.wordpress.com/2012/01/19/absolute-and-relative-scarcity/

None of the other commodities which are controlled by the futures market have absolute scarcity.  Gold can easily be mined, pigs can be bred, marginal cropping land can grow more corn.

Many of us, including many on this wall, are now dedicated to slowly, gently buying physical all the way down, no matter how deep it goes or for how long. Holders of last resort will create conditions of absolute scarcity.  

The reality is that the poor performance of gold and silver markets is a reflection of poor organic demand for precious metals, combined with elastic supply.  People like Roach blow this up into a global conspiracy so that they can avoid taking responsibility for their own poor investment decisions.  There is undoubtedly short term manipulation in almost all markets, but whales can only push the price in directions that the price already wants to go. 

For the record I do not think that the current downward price pressure on Bitcoin is a manipulation. I think it is a perfectly natural and organic reaction to a blow off top.

+1 WO sMerit.

[Ludwig Von]

I really have absolutely no fucking idea what the price is gonna do next.

It's easy.

Micgoossens = dumb money
JayJuanGee = stupid money
Elwar = insane money

Just do the opposite of whatever they're doing.

and whats roach money ? if there is any

no money

But he eats a gold sandwich and drinks a cup of molten silver every morning... . Fundamentals!