Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[LFC_Bitcoin]

{snip}
But if you sell into euphoria and buy into fear you're going to do better than 95% of others.

Simple yet solid advice there ^^

If you would be absolutely right.... one year till 6K- BULLrun till 280K

Then it would be best for 1 year world travelling (not watching price) and really think “what am i gonna do” when Corn is @ 280k-ish


Keep feeding us HM

$280,000 per bitcoin...FUCKING HELL, just imagine. I’ll probably sell 10 at $100,000 to be honest. You’d be silly not to.
Instant millionaire (fiat wise).

[mindrust]

I think that you're being emotional and shouldn't invest at all if you can't handle massive red candles. Selling now is like buying at >15k. Now is not the time to sell, but to keep cost averaging in.

There is no guarantee that bitcoin will really bounce back one day . I believe it will, but I am totally unqualified.

Putting more money is foolish, if you already put all the money you have reserved for high risk assets.

In past it bounced from much lower marketcap, much lower media attention, much lower infrastructure (exchanges, media, wallets, ATMs, stores that accept etc).

It's not certain that it will ever reach 10k again. I believe it will, as everyone here. But how much are you willing to bet that it will? That's he point.

I am not %100 sure that we'll be seeing another ATH. Let's say I am quite positive. %80.

But on the other hand I am damn sure (%100) we will see another

OVER 9000! meme again in a couple years.

And if we ever pass 9k, then $20k won't look that far away.

[gembitz]

I think that you're being emotional and shouldn't invest at all if you can't handle massive red candles. Selling now is like buying at >15k. Now is not the time to sell, but to keep cost averaging in.

There is no guarantee that bitcoin will really bounce back one day . I believe it will, but I am totally unqualified.

Putting more money is foolish, if you already put all the money you have reserved for high risk assets.

In past it bounced from much lower marketcap, much lower media attention, much lower infrastructure (exchanges, media, wallets, ATMs, stores that accept etc).

It's not certain that it will ever reach 10k again. I believe it will, as everyone here. But how much are you willing to bet that it will? That's he point.

I am not %100 sure that we'll be seeing another ATH. Let's say I am quite positive. %80.

But on the other hand I am damn sure (%100) we will see another

OVER 9000! meme again in a couple years.

over $999 lol

[gentlemand]

Simple yet solid advice there ^^

I'd qualify that as when people are truly deranged, not just bullish or gloomy. $20,000 was derangement and you could see that by how rapidly it happened and how rapidly it tailed off. Same goes for the utter euphoria on r/ethtrader where triumph was unequivocally in the bag.

I'll never bother selling with the intention of buying back. I'm incapable of getting it right.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

I think that you're being emotional and shouldn't invest at all if you can't handle massive red candles. Selling now is like buying at >15k. Now is not the time to sell, but to keep cost averaging in.

There is no guarantee that bitcoin will really bounce back one day . I believe it will, but I am totally unqualified.

Putting more money is foolish, if you already put all the money you have reserved for high risk assets.

In past it bounced from much lower marketcap, much lower media attention, much lower infrastructure (exchanges, media, wallets, ATMs, stores that accept etc).

It's not certain that it will ever reach 10k again. I believe it will, as everyone here. But how much are you willing to bet that it will? That's he point.

I am not %100 sure that we'll be seeing another ATH. Let's say I am quite positive. %80.

But on the other hand I am damn sure (%100) we will see another

OVER 9000! meme again in a couple years.

over $999 lol

Oh yes ‘LOL’

 

gemblitz man, your presence on this forum is fucking pointless.

DIE !!

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Simple yet solid advice there ^^

I'd qualify that as when people are truly deranged, not just bullish or gloomy. $20,000 was derangement and you could see that by how rapidly it happened and how rapidly it tailed off.

I'll never bother selling with the intention of buying back. I'm incapable of getting it right.

Oh yeah once I sell that’s it. I won’t be buying back in.
I’ll sell a % after the next halving & won’t attempt to buy back in. I’ll just HODL the rest & enjoy the fruits of my labor.

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

The point is that we're already down 90% and the probability of going down further decreases exponentially as we go down. You're just falling victim to the gambler's fallacy right now.

Agreed. It's an absolute classic noob move but it's also 100% understandable. It's how regular human minds work.

Unfortunately the people you're trading against know this and do not have regular human minds. 

I completely agree however, we must take into consideration that many people invested last year, with a buy in much greater than ours. They could already be at a loss or close to a loss, which puts them at a very different mind set to us who, would need a far greater drop in price to be in their position.

What you are describing is the inverse scenario that we are having right now. People buying into hype, selling into fear. Some people never learn this error in judgement, some take a few market cycles and wipeouts to learn it, some learn it before entering any market. But the fundamental principle remains, if you buy into hype and don't set aside some profits you'll probably get burnt. The same is true for selling in fear instead of buying and/or holding.

Ahhhhhhhh

Thank you millionaire, gentlemad and lfcbitcoin

I will hold this shit until it goes up. You are right.

Thanks

Of course, there are edge cases. Some assets will keep climbing for a very long time, others will go to zero. But that's where diversification and value analysis (should) come into play, not succumbing to human psychology.

Make sure you really understand this and don't fall for the trap of "omg why didn't I sell" if we go down further after the fact. The (mathematically) most sensible thing to do is to keep buying in small batches and decide on different price targets at which you will sell. This includes higher prices at which you take some partial profits, as well as a full stop at which you get out of the game entirely. I'm personally riding down to zero if I have to, but for others it might be more sensible to scrape.

Just be aware of how markets function and decide on your strategy before you get into the game, and then take whatever you get without beating up yourself over it. Invest that energy in learning how to do better next time instead of FUDding/FOMOing out/in.

[gembitz]

I think that you're being emotional and shouldn't invest at all if you can't handle massive red candles. Selling now is like buying at >15k. Now is not the time to sell, but to keep cost averaging in.

There is no guarantee that bitcoin will really bounce back one day . I believe it will, but I am totally unqualified.

Putting more money is foolish, if you already put all the money you have reserved for high risk assets.

In past it bounced from much lower marketcap, much lower media attention, much lower infrastructure (exchanges, media, wallets, ATMs, stores that accept etc).

It's not certain that it will ever reach 10k again. I believe it will, as everyone here. But how much are you willing to bet that it will? That's he point.

I am not %100 sure that we'll be seeing another ATH. Let's say I am quite positive. %80.

But on the other hand I am damn sure (%100) we will see another

OVER 9000! meme again in a couple years.

over $999 lol

Oh yes ‘LOL’

 

gemblitz man, your presence on this forum is fucking pointless.

DIE !!

 

BUY BUY BUYYYY!!! WEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[BTCMILLIONAIRE]

I completely agree however, we must take into consideration that many people invested last year, with a buy in much greater than ours. They could already be at a loss or close to a loss, which puts them at a very different mind set to us who, would need a far greater drop in price to be in their position.

Yeah . My mind set changed completely last week when the price reached my average and I become at loss.

Watch out for this once you're back in profit. Your mindset will do the inverse if we start mooning and that can be just as fatal as what you are experiencing right now. It just won't feel bad until it's too late.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

 

BUY BUY BUYYYY!!! WEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

[mindrust]

WeW My average is also near $3.4k right now. I see many people have the same average cost like me.

I buy from here and there but I am not eager to buy much like I was doing when it was $6k+.   (Not selling neither.)

This is all over 2014-2015 again. The more the price drops, people buy less instead of buying more.

When the price hits 2k and below. Nobody here will have the courage to buy any bitcoins. (Everybody will think, "FUCK I AM ABOUT TO LOSE MY LIFE SAVINGS DUMP DUMP DUMP")

And then, $100k will happen so fast, people will be FOMO buying from $20k+ price tag. This will happen in the next 5 years. When I say 5 years, I want to fuck myself because I already lost one 5year period by watching btc price without buying and no I am not missing this one. Mid thirties is still a good age for a person to live his life, bang chicks.  

[gembitz]

 

BUY BUY BUYYYY!!! WEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

 

you even chew bro?

[dandannn]

Mid thirties is still a good age for a person to live his life, bang chicks.  

Ah yeah, now we're talking!

Although this time around it does feel as though there is this air of certainty that the price WILL increase and it WILL repeat the historic trend, ie. 100k here we come. In my experience, the more 'certain' a gamble is going to pay off, the less likely it does. It almost feels like buying at this price point its too good to be true, and that makes me nervous.

[mindrust]

Mid thirties is still a good age for a person to live his life, bang chicks.  

Ah yeah, now we're talking!

Although this time around it does feel as though there is this air of certainty that the price WILL increase and it WILL repeat the historic trend, ie. 100k here we come. In my experience, the more 'certain' a gamble is going to pay off, the less likely it does. It almost feels like buying at this price point its too good to be true, and that makes me nervous.

Maybe that's what they want us to think!

[bitmover]

Mid thirties is still a good age for a person to live his life, bang chicks. 

That's my age, and what I am here for!

[El duderino_]

The point is that we're already down 90% and the probability of going down further decreases exponentially as we go down. You're just falling victim to the gambler's fallacy right now.

Agreed. It's an absolute classic noob move but it's also 100% understandable. It's how regular human minds work.

Unfortunately the people you're trading against know this and do not have regular human minds.  

Absolutely!
I could sell everything now & I’d still be massively up on what I originally invested. The thing is though, you just know if I do that the price will go to $6,000 or $7,000 & I’d end up buying back half the amount I currently own which would be fucking retarded.

There are many that bought back with those losses having half the stack for same fiat investment and 0 profit, how hard i would hate myself if to be that DUMB NOOB

[Torque]

Do you guys like capitulations that were being masked/sold as something else?

'Cause that what you got.

But you are right, I am being emotional. Even though what I am saying makss Sense, because BTC can still fall to 1900 (your 90% down). We are not there yet.

After Bitcoin bottomed in 2015 to something like $190, you should have heard all the people coming out of the woodwork saying "can still fall to $100" and "we are not there yet". Never happened.

[gentlemand]

That's my age, and what I am here for!

[El duderino_]

[gentlemand]

That's a very short bear you have there.