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Question: When will bitcoin reach the top of this bull market (i.e. when will it moon)?
Topped at $13,880 in June - 10 (6.8%)
H2 2019 - 15 (10.2%)
H1 2020 - 28 (19%)
H2 2020 - 26 (17.7%)
H1 2021 - 12 (8.2%)
H2 2021 - 28 (19%)
H1 2022 - 6 (4.1%)
H2 2022 - 4 (2.7%)
H1 2023 - 0 (0%)
H2 2023 - 3 (2%)
2024 or Later - 15 (10.2%)
Total Voters: 147

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21288650 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (102 posts by 19 users deleted.)
bitserve
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January 05, 2019, 02:01:45 AM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.
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January 05, 2019, 02:07:35 AM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

100.1%
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January 05, 2019, 02:10:11 AM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

100.1%

No, really. Even 100% would be way too much.
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January 05, 2019, 02:13:41 AM
Merited by Majormax (1), bitserve (1)

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

High. But I think it's going to be long road with much adversity. Despite it being half the ATH, I think a return to five figures will be the equivalent of getting back over $1000 and that was a three year grind. It'll be a huge hump that needs taking out and once it is a great deal of confidence will flow back in from the outside.
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January 05, 2019, 02:23:59 AM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

High. But I think it's going to be long road with much adversity. Despite it being half the ATH, I think a return to five figures will be the equivalent of getting back over $1000 and that was a three year grind. It'll be a huge hump that needs taking out and once it is a great deal of confidence will flow back in from the outside.

That's basically what I think. Being my idea of high 80%+

Yeah, once $10K is reached that would mean a great deal of confidence as you say.
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January 05, 2019, 02:25:26 AM

That's basically what I think. Being my idea of high 80%+

Yeah, once $10K is reached that would mean a great deal of confidence as you say.

There'll be many, many more people watching intently this time around compared to besting $1000 once again.
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January 05, 2019, 02:27:27 AM

That's basically what I think. Being my idea of high 80%+

Yeah, once $10K is reached that would mean a great deal of confidence as you say.

There'll be many, many more people watching intently this time around compared to besting $1000 once again.

Yes, FOMO ^2
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January 05, 2019, 02:29:16 AM

20%-30% of not happening I will have to deal with that...

I am going to do the most risky bet of my life (which is not much to say as I am extremely conservative) based on that perception. Wish me luck Smiley

I will probably be ok even if I am wrong or things doesn't happen as I do expect as the most probable outcome.
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January 05, 2019, 02:32:16 AM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

100.1%

No, really. Even 100% would be way too much.

Same chance of Roach not becoming a functional member of society. 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
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January 05, 2019, 02:37:21 AM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

100.1%

No, really. Even 100% would be way too much.

Same chance of Roach not becoming a functional member of society. 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999

R0ach won't ever become a functional member of society. Bitcoin has way more failure probabilities, sorry.

Even r0ach himself can confirm this affirmation.
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January 05, 2019, 02:43:58 AM

20% of not happening I will have to deal with that...

I am going to do the most risky bet of my life (which is not much to say as I am extremely conservative) based on that perception. Wish me luck Smiley

I will probably be ok even if I am wrong or things doesn't happen as I do expect as the most probable outcome.

Commendable sir.  Its always good to push your comfort zone and let your nutz hang. Best of luck!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yz7Cn3pHibo

nutz hang remix https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ij7uaVNnsOk
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January 05, 2019, 03:04:29 AM
Merited by Majormax (1), bitserve (1)

20%-30% of not happening I will have to deal with that...

I am going to do the most risky bet of my life (which is not much to say as I am extremely conservative) based on that perception. Wish me luck Smiley

I will probably be ok even if I am wrong or things doesn't happen as I do expect as the most probable outcome.

Careful.   We may go much lower in the interim.  Do not put yourself in a position where you are overinvested and feel you have to cut your losses.  Only invest what you are prepared to hold firmly until well after next halvening.  

If you want to be conservative, wait until we break the long term bear line.  2014 suggests we will break it around this price level in October 2019. 
bitserve
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January 05, 2019, 03:18:18 AM

20%-30% of not happening I will have to deal with that...

I am going to do the most risky bet of my life (which is not much to say as I am extremely conservative) based on that perception. Wish me luck Smiley

I will probably be ok even if I am wrong or things doesn't happen as I do expect as the most probable outcome.

Careful.   We may go much lower in the interim.  Do not put yourself in a position where you are overinvested and feel you have to cut your losses.  Only invest what you are prepared to hold firmly until well after next halvening.  

If you want to be conservative, wait until we break the long term bear line.  2014 suggests we will break it around this price level in October 2019.  

I was clearly overinvested  in Q4 2017. I can hodl it all right now.

I am just going to morgtage again, for second time in my life, for another property that I feel know it is clearly well under market price. My regular income cannot cover it, but I do have enough FIAT savings to pay it for almost 10 years even with no income and without having to sell my Bitcoins.

I guess the worst that it could happen is that I would need to sell the property (probably for more than I am buying it).

As I said I am extremely conservative, but it is more risky bet I have ever made in my life. Wouldn't like to have to sell my Bitcoins at a "bad price". But I can perfectly hodl for 5+ years no matter what.

It's just that I thought I would never buy anything on debt/mortgage again (already paid my main home).... but sometimes you don't have any choice if you don't want to miss the train.

If Bitcoin pumps sometime in the next 5 years I will have made the best decision in my life. If it doesn't, I will probably have to sell the property. Hopefully not losing any money, but it will be a failure for me.
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January 05, 2019, 03:28:23 AM

20%-30% of not happening I will have to deal with that...

I am going to do the most risky bet of my life (which is not much to say as I am extremely conservative) based on that perception. Wish me luck Smiley

I will probably be ok even if I am wrong or things doesn't happen as I do expect as the most probable outcome.

Careful.   We may go much lower in the interim.  Do not put yourself in a position where you are overinvested and feel you have to cut your losses.  Only invest what you are prepared to hold firmly until well after next halvening.  

If you want to be conservative, wait until we break the long term bear line.  2014 suggests we will break it around this price level in October 2019.  

I was clearly overinvested  in Q4 2017. I can hodl it all right now.

I am just going to morgtage again, for second time in my life, for another property that I feel it is clearly well under market price. My regular income cannot cover it, but I do have enough FIAT savings to pay it for almost 10 years even with no income and without having to sell my Bitcoins.

I guess the worst that it could happen is that I would need to sell the property (probably for more than I am buying it).

As I said I am extremely conservative, but it is more risky bet I have ever made in my life. Wouldn't like to have to sell my Bitcoins at a "bad price". But I can perfectly hodl for 5+ years no matter what.

It's just that I thought I would never buy anything on debt/mortgage again (already paid my main home).... but sometimes you don't have any choice if you don't want to miss the train.

If Bitcoin pumps sometime in the next 5 years I will have made the best decision in my life. If it doesn't, I will probably have to sell the property. Hopefully not losing any money, but it will be a failure for me.

Sorry to go into granular details, but if your income cannot support that second (presumably larger) property, how do you know that they will give you a loan?
Based on what? Your savings? Last time I refi, they were real bastards about everything.
I keep a large part of my portfolio in most safe investments (or those that I think are safe), which allows me to go crazy on risk on some other parts, albeit risky stock bets seem to mostly not work in the last couple of years.

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January 05, 2019, 03:34:50 AM

20%-30% of not happening I will have to deal with that...

I am going to do the most risky bet of my life (which is not much to say as I am extremely conservative) based on that perception. Wish me luck Smiley

I will probably be ok even if I am wrong or things doesn't happen as I do expect as the most probable outcome.

Careful.   We may go much lower in the interim.  Do not put yourself in a position where you are overinvested and feel you have to cut your losses.  Only invest what you are prepared to hold firmly until well after next halvening.  

If you want to be conservative, wait until we break the long term bear line.  2014 suggests we will break it around this price level in October 2019.  

I was clearly overinvested  in Q4 2017. I can hodl it all right now.

I am just going to morgtage again, for second time in my life, for another property that I feel it is clearly well under market price. My regular income cannot cover it, but I do have enough FIAT savings to pay it for almost 10 years even with no income and without having to sell my Bitcoins.

I guess the worst that it could happen is that I would need to sell the property (probably for more than I am buying it)

As I said I am extremely conservative, but it is more risky bet I have ever made in my life. Wouldn't like to have to sell my Bitcoins at a "bad price". But I can perfectly hodl for 5+ years no matter what.

It's just that I thought I would never buy anything on debt/mortgage again (already paid my main home).... but sometimes you don't have any choice if you don't want to miss the train.

If Bitcoin pumps sometime in the next 5 years I will have made the best decision in my life. If it doesn't, I will probably have to sell the property. Hopefully not losing any money, but it will be a failure for me.

Sorry to go into granular details, but if your income cannot support that second (presumably larger) property, how do you know that they will give you a loan?
Based on what? Your savings? Last time I refi, they were real bastards about everything.



Good question. I will ask my father to endorse (is that the right word when a person gets responsible if I don't pay?) me. He (and the bank) knows I have another fully paid property (which is slightly more expensive btw), I ALSO have enough fiat savings to cover more than half of the price of the second one (not counting Bitcoin). Plus the appraisal of the property will probably show way higher value than buying value.

I assume that's enough to approve the loan. I am in a WAY better position than last (first) time, which I already finished paying after 20 years.
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January 05, 2019, 03:42:39 AM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

99.9%

And 50% chance to see new lows before then.
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January 05, 2019, 03:50:02 AM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

99.9%

And 50% chance to see new lows before then.

I don't care about the interin... In fact I do expect a high probability of lower lows this very same year. Especially in Q1-Q2, maybe even Q3.

99.9% is still an almost delusional high chance, don't you think?
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January 05, 2019, 04:12:52 AM
Merited by infofront (1)

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

99.9%

And 50% chance to see new lows before then.

I don't care about the interin... In fact I do expect a high probability of lower lows this very same year. Especially in Q1-Q2, maybe even Q3.

99.9% is still an almost delusional high chance, don't you think?

I think 99.9 is pragmatic and conservative. Its a bull market you know.

What you can afford to lose its exactly the same number as what you can afford to buy. You can afford to lose anything you have, up to and including your life.

There is no nobler cause than dying for a worthy cause like Bitcoin.

Look how many people die each day for the cause of stuffing their face with too much food. They had lives they could afford to lose and spent those lives for the cause of boosting Mcdonalds stock. No one judged them at their funerals.

No one on Earth is more ready and willing to risk their life and freedom for the most trivial cause than Florida Man.

Here just yesterday Florida Man was ready to die fighting against leftist straw laws.
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/mcdonald-s-employee-fights-back-after-florida-man-attacks-her-n954286

Also just yesterday the very busy Florida Man drives his Ferrari at top speed off an ocean dock and risks his life for a quick thrill.
https://www.local10.com/news/florida/of-course-florida-man-drove-his-ferrari-off-dock-into-the-ocean

Once Florida Man discovers Bitcoin, there is nothing he wont do to get his hands on as much as he can afford to lose, even if it means losing his life.



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January 05, 2019, 04:16:30 AM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

99.9%

And 50% chance to see new lows before then.

I don't care about the interin... In fact I do expect a high probability of lower lows this very same year. Especially in Q1-Q2, maybe even Q3.

99.9% is still an almost delusional high chance, don't you think?

I think 99.9 is pragmatic and conservative. Its a bull market you know.

What you can afford to lose its exactly the same number as what you can afford to buy. You can afford to lose anything you have, up to and including your life.



I would rather be dead than ruined alive. Fortunately chances are right on that sense.

We are in no fucking bull market just YET, you know that, don't you?
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January 05, 2019, 04:22:57 AM

Just curious... What you guys would say is the probability YOU give to Bitcoin to be over $10.000 at any moment during the next 4 years? honestly.

99.9%

And 50% chance to see new lows before then.

I don't care about the interin... In fact I do expect a high probability of lower lows this very same year. Especially in Q1-Q2, maybe even Q3.

99.9% is still an almost delusional high chance, don't you think?

I think 99.9 is pragmatic and conservative. Its a bull market you know.

What you can afford to lose its exactly the same number as what you can afford to buy. You can afford to lose anything you have, up to and including your life.



I would rather be dead than ruined alive. Fortunately chances are right on that sense.

We are in no fucking bull market just YET, you know that, don't you?

I firmly believe the bottom is in for the last bear cycle which means we are in a bull market. I realize the herd fears one more giant plunge down to mimic the 2014-15 bear cycle.
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