Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Globb0]

Where you can freely take your silver and gold bars through any airport

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[1714896084]

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[rebal15]

[...]Lightning Network is an exact replica of the current banking system [...]

You have to upgrade your thinking....

You people are clueless if you think all Lightning nodes that route transactions won't be run and controlled by the banking entitites that already exist.  They can simply make it that way with the stroke of a pen.  Banks are not traditionally in the semiconductor business, so that has slowed their ascent of taking control of bitcoin mining, but Lightning doesn't require mining.  It's the playground of their already existing business model, to just insert themselves in as middlemen by regulation with the following result:

Banks collect infinite interest by taking a cut of every transaction with no skin in the game and own the planet.

So there is no way to escape from banks.

[realr0ach]

Where you can freely take your silver and gold bars through any airport

Stupid example.  It's like claiming since you can't freely move your house at the speed of light to Mars, a house has no value.  Humans, and everything of value that exists in the real world, are governed by the laws of physics. Imaginary things of no value aka digital timestamps, are not.  Doing anything in the real world requires both time and energy.  

Even bitcoin itself utilizes both time and energy, but it's to create an end product that's completely imaginary in nature.  You're expending much of the same resources of transferring gold, but accomplishing no real world result - entirely sunk cost fallacy.

[VB1001]

MACD is hooked, or goes up or down, is weekend, more complicated, but there may be a squeeze, many hours on the side.

[Wekkel]

Of course lightning is a far weaker system than Bitcoin offering far less security and censorship resistance.

You miss the point it does nothing to fix the current monetary system.  

Can only banks start a Lightning Network Node?
Can only banks validate LN transactions?
Can banks create Bitcoin out of thin air?

Your reasoning does not hold up under scrutiny.

Something else:


bitcoin nodes

I wonder how that relates to the spread of wealth in Europe  

[fluidjax]

How do you secure your security seed? Honest question

Cryptosteel or similar, stored in a safe
https://cryptosteel.com/

and/or

Shamirs Secret Splitting
https://iancoleman.io/shamir/

[realr0ach]

Can only banks start a Lightning Network Node?
Can only banks validate LN transactions?

Can YOU create a fucking branch bank right now?  NO.  You need massive capital, lawyers, govt connections, and everything else.  All of the same rules will apply to Lightning nodes, just NOT DAY ONE.  Stop playing dumb.  Those regulations and red tape (AML/KYC) will lock out any wildcat nodes and the only ones will be run by people like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.  

Anything that has an easily identifiable physical or digital surface attack vector will be enveloped by the current system.  Claiming you're going to run a wildcat Lightning node is like claiming you're going to be some type freelance illegal porn distributor and the FBI is not going to kick in your door.  If you're capable of putting 1+1 together, shilling for Lightning is like shilling directly for Goldman Sachs.

[criptix]

Roach isnt wrong regarding LN and centralisation.

If LN gets adoption it seems very likely that mega hubs will be created to route majority of LN txes.

The reason is quite simple:

The normal user would rather open 1 channel with a mega hub (which has channels open with millions of other users) instead of directly opening millions of channels with each user (ease of use and economic viability).

[bitcoincidence]

Shamirs Secret Splitting
https://iancoleman.io/shamir/

I would't enter my passphrase in any online form or on any computer that had internet access.

[realr0ach]

Roach isnt wrong regarding LN and centralisation.

If LN gets adoption it seems very likely that mega hubs will be created to route majority of LN txes.

The reason is quite simple:

The normal user would rather open 1 channel with a mega hub (which has channels open with millions of other users) instead of directly opening millions of channels with each user (ease of use and economic viability).

Of course, I already said long ago this is the only real possible endgame outcome of Lightning network.  You cannot trust ANYONE shilling for Lightning network and should treat them as the enemy.  Bitcoin centralization is  bad enough, but Lightning is a blueprint of everything the bankers would love to happen.  I did not make the decision lightly that all digital currencies are garbage and we should be using only physical metals as money instead.

[criptix]

Shamirs Secret Splitting
https://iancoleman.io/shamir/

I would't enter my passphrase in any online form or on any computer that had internet access.

You can use it offline.

[bitcoinPsycho]

[...]Lightning Network is an exact replica of the current banking system [...]

You have to upgrade your thinking....

You people are clueless if you think all Lightning nodes that route transactions won't be run and controlled by the banking entitites that already exist.  They can simply make it that way with the stroke of a pen.  Banks are not traditionally in the semiconductor business, so that has slowed their ascent of taking control of bitcoin mining, but Lightning doesn't require mining.  It's the playground of their already existing business model, to just insert themselves in as middlemen by regulation with the following result:

Banks collect infinite interest by taking a cut of every transaction with no skin in the game and own the planet.

So there is no way to escape from banks.

Your doomed

[fluidjax]

Shamir's Secret Splitting
https://iancoleman.io/shamir/

I would't enter my passphrase in any online form or on any computer that had internet access.

For sure:
1) Download from Github to a usb stick,
2) Transfer to an offline machine and run it and use values.
3) Wipe machine

My mistake, I forgot to mention it because it was obvious to me. But of course your keys and seeds should NEVER be on an internet connected machine (thats currently on the internet, or later connects to the internet)

[realr0ach]

Another funny aspect of bitcoin is people believing a deflationary currency somehow screws the tyrannical government.  What is an inflationary currency in reality?  Mostly just a hidden, flat tax on everyone.  Instead of the out of control govt spending too much and debasing the currency to finance it, they will simply raise taxes instead and keep on spending the same amount.  

And how are you going to stop them?  You're using a non-fungible, Orwellian tracking token that abolishes the 5th amendment and allows them to do IRS audits 24 hours a day, 365 days a week.  It's an even greater tool of govt extraction and slavery than the one that already exists.  Using digital money and abolishing cash or physical money (metals) is exactly what they want you to do to make their job of enslaving you and extracting your money easier.

To make things even more stupid, imagine people owning a bunch of shitcoins in the future and losing the private keys.  The govt then comes for their "wealth tax" and even though you're completely unable to pay it due to losing your keys, they don't believe you and send you to jail anyway.  Even better, imagine them doing that to people who used to own like 1000 bitcoins and sold them for a dollar each and then have to prove they don't own them anymore or go to jail.  This is why you do NOT use non-fungible tracking system coins.

[kenzawak]

I don't like where it's heading :

https://www.ccn.com/is-bitcoin-price-heading-to-low-3000-traders-expect-short-term-downtrend/

"From December 17 to 20, the Bitcoin price increased from $3,181 to $4,172, by more than 31 percent within a three-day span.

But, at the time, an FX hedge fund CEO Su Zhu said that buy walls on leading fiat-to-crypto exchanges in the likes of Coinbase and Bitstamp started to build up in the $3,200 to $3,300 range and investors began accumulating the asset at a low price range.

He said on December 13:

10% down from here ($3,300), buy walls on @Coinbase are now the largest (in BTC notional ) since mid-2015. Similar for Bitstamp. To break lower will require filling these fiat-backed bids. Either 1) more BTC borrow to come online 2) KYC-able off-ramp selling. Derivatives selling will just lead to funding becoming very negative as it has been.

The short-term rally Bitcoin experienced from December 17 to 20 was essentially a corrective rally triggered by oversold conditions and given the lack of momentum of the asset throughout late December and early January, it was fairly evident that the probability of a proper short-term rally was low.

DonAlt, a cryptocurrency investor and technical analyst, said after BTC fell below $3,600 that a drop to $3,350 can be expected as a support level at $3,600 was cleanly breached.
...
Although the daily volume of Bitcoin and Ethereum still remain relatively high, the volume of the cryptocurrency market is hovering at $15 billion, down $7 billion since January 10.

If crypto assets continue to free fall without meaningful volume and strong sell pressure, a short-term drop should be expected."

[fluidjax]

There's too much to explain about why it's complete garbage, but just one example in particular involves transaction validator nodes.  In the base bitcoin model this is going to be the miners and the miners are required to compete in terms of economic soundness and efficiency in their operation.  Since the state is the bankers, they can then implement huge red tape and regulation, killing off any 'hobby' miners or really any competitors in general except themselves.

So it's pretty easy for the banks to completely control bitcoin already as is with blacklists and everything else, turning into a complete dystopia, but they do have at least some small inconveniences in their way.  With Lightning Network, there IS NO hashing for them to do, they can simply regulate everyone else out of existence with red tape, then they control ALL Lightning router nodes and collect their vampiric usury fees off every transaction with no skin in the game.  In other words, there's ZERO difference between that and current banking.  Banks collect infinite interest by taking a cut of every transaction with no skin in the game and own the planet.

How can you censor a transaction when you don't know the parties involved.
If a party decides to censor you simply try an alternative route
How will they control ALL the lightning nodes, anyone can start a node.
'Regulate out of existence' like they regulated out of existence Bittorrent !
Lightning doesn't  break Bitcoin's fixed supply.

None of your arguments hold water, try harder!

[realr0ach]

If a party decides to censor you simply try an alternative route
How will they control ALL the lightning nodes, anyone can start a node.

I already answered that.  Lightning nodes are NOT invisible.  Nor are football stadium sized mining facilities.  If you think a professional money laundering enterprise - that's what freelance lightning nodes will be known by to the govt -  are somehow immune to govt regulation when they can easily come knock on your door, you're out of your mind:

Anything that has an easily identifiable physical or digital surface attack vector will be enveloped by the current system.  Claiming you're going to run a wildcat Lightning node is like claiming you're going to be some type freelance illegal porn distributor and the FBI is not going to kick in your door.

[El duderino_]

[zazzbg1]

Of course lightning is a far weaker system than Bitcoin offering far less security and censorship resistance.

You miss the point it does nothing to fix the current monetary system.  The fact bitcoin is designed around having built-in, rent seeking middlemen who you need to ask permission from to move the coins you supposedly own, and then need to pay a ransom extortion fee to, should be a red flag to any non-idiot that bitcoin at it's core does really nothing to alter the evil banking system that currently exists.  The variable of fixed money supply in bitcoin vs infinite fiat supply is pretty much a giant red herring to distract people in this regard.

The real issue at hand isn't the variable of supply, but the ability of people to insert themselves into the middleman position and siphon off wealth while doing virtually nothing, collecting infinite interest, and ownining the entire planet in the process.  The banks do this in their current business model, and both bitcoin and the lightning network are designed the same way.  So nothing really changes in the end.

Physical metals, on the other hand, DO NOT have built-in middlemen like bitcoin and the current banking system do.  If I attempt to spend a bitcoin, I am involuntarily making someone else rich in the process - the designed to centralize, built-in middlemen mining monopoly or lightning node monopoly.  If I attempt to spend a gold, silver, or copper coin, NOBODY else is profiting off my transaction and sucking up all wealth in the universe in the process.

I like your content, it makes me think on some aspects of the current world monetary/goods system.
One thing I disagree with is that in order for you to be able to spend that gold, silver or copper coin you've already made someone rich, the guys that mined the raw metal and the guys that sold you the coin so you can spend it.
Unless you start mining gold, silver or copper yourself and then transfer the raw material to a coin, you're making someone else rich.

Try mining gold yourself? Aren't all the gold, silver and copper mines in the World owned by A FEW large corporations based on licenses that the Governments granted them for lots of money?

[d_eddie]

I get (and like) everything about bitcoin with one point that is not clear to me: is credit possible in btc-based financial system?
If yes, then how? If no, it could be a limitation, albeit most people might think that this is a feature.

I enjoy short term zero % credit (as i pay my bills in full every credit card cycle).
I fully understand that it is a gimmick and most people don't do that and accumulate debt, although my personal interest payment is -1.5% (1.5% reward and NO interest).
How bitcoin can/will fight this?

I'm afraid it's a structural problem. Lending requires trust, which is usually provided by "reliable" parties - our friends the banks. A trustless system such as bitcoin makes it hard to implement such an arrangement, unless the collateral is tokenizable too.

I would be happy to lend my btc (on a monthly basis) to a reliable party (if there is such a thing in btc world) and get back 2-3% interest on a yearly basis, but only if interest is in btc and not fiat.
IMHO, btc lending needs to be established and sooner rather than later.

I would have liked to do that too, but when I searched a bit, the only option I found were some exchanges lending out your btc as margin for other users, which required quite a bit of trust - counterparty risk compounded into squared counterparty risk!