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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26330488 times)
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Toxic2040
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January 15, 2019, 07:01:12 PM

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Quote
Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Quote
Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.
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January 15, 2019, 07:21:44 PM

i mainly carry a handgun in the woods and thats what i would be firing in the air as a warning shot for the wild dogs and such. and even though i know its miles of woods i think i will at least consider trying to fire into a tree from now on. its just habit to never, ever fire a round with no real target as if i miss the tree that bullet can go a long way. and while there should be no one in my woods.. still..
Fire in front of the dog.

that would have very good odds of seriously hurting it via ricochet/spall, and hurting it is worse than killing it.

i have no wish to harm any animal, much less kill it. if it looks ready to attack, fine, dead dog. but if its pondering the situation ("hmm.. is that thing good to eat?") scaring it off is fine by me. scaring and hurting it via spall so it suffers is not.
Well firing in the air has a chance of killing a human, even if a small one.

Look there is no polite solution to dangerous situations like that. Pick the one that has the least chance of harming humans, not other animals.
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January 15, 2019, 07:22:27 PM


In a later tweet, CZ is clarifying that his tweet was meant as a kind of advertisement for BinanceDEX, which seems to be an exchange that does not yet exist (even though CZ has been talking about it for more than a year).

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January 15, 2019, 07:27:08 PM
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Great tweet storm. If there's one thing I could tweet on that thread (can't, I don't do Twitter) is that :

*Before* a crypto can succeed as a worldwide payment system, it FIRST has to become a successful SoV.

Why?

Because you can't have a successful worldwide payment system without high liquidity. Period. And you can't have high liquidity without a high enough stable value, brought about by solid SoV as a core attribute first. On chain scalability is secondary to this (although LN completely solves that problem).

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January 15, 2019, 07:27:47 PM

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Quote
Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Quote
Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

From your own data:

- Most of the bullets did not even hit the platform. (What I said about human pobablation density).
- 4 hit (out of 500), but only ONE left a 1.5mm mark on wood?

So even in that rare case most probably not deadly even if a head hit (surely painful) and, according to your own data: "Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound"

It would not even penetrate the skull. There is hair, skin, meat, and bones all of which would cushion that 1.5mm dent better than wood. A serious concussion? Maybe. A slight probability of a deadly concussion? Yeah, but very slight indeed.

Anyway, no, I wouldn't want that random "lucky" bullet hitting me right in the middle of my fucking head or, even worse, an eye Smiley
JayJuanGee
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January 15, 2019, 07:29:02 PM

Just another worthless cloud shill. I always like the people who go on about how "secure" the cloud is. Sun used to go on about "One arrow, one target" while those of us in the know called it "one egg, one basket".

Eh, whatever. Another case of blame someone else for failure.

Many of us bitcoiners have discovered that it is not easy to be your own bank, even if you have learned various storage mechanisms (and methods) over the years.

There remains a certain amount of uncertainty, flux and even lack of confidence regarding the extent to which your mechanisms and methods are both adequately secure and accessible, including whether you have taken sufficient measures in the event of your untimely demise or death.  There is no one-size-fits-all here, even though some security and accessibility practices are better than others, seems to be a bit of a moving target to attempt to achieve an appropriate level of security and accessibility in proportion to the value of your BTC (and perhaps other cryptos) holdings. 

Also, too much disclosure of your security practices could be a bit of a bad opsec, too.
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January 15, 2019, 07:29:30 PM

Hairy - thanks for the analysis but I'm not sure that logic holds (yet).
We're still looking at lower highs, and the recent move up didn't push past the 50-day MA. Meanwhile volumes are still down on what you'd expect for a bitcoin capitulation. I'd expect weekly volumes to rival the highest-volume week of the entire downtrend, like 200k BTC on Stamp.
Not suggesting we can't have seen the bottom yet, just that in my view it's certainly unconfirmed.

100% agree.  This is certainly not confirmed - it is a tentative hypothesis only.  The majority of technicals are against the bottom being in.

Really we have two choices.  Either Bitcoin price cycles are stable in length or they are getting longer.  

I am punting on the former but this is all about risk management.
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January 15, 2019, 07:30:29 PM

Let's go down the rabbit hole of debate, shall we. Let's dispel the delusion.

Bitcoin: mostly speculation
Use: store of value, (up to certain level) payment network

Ethereum: mostly speculation
Use: decentralised computing, USP less clear than Bitcoin
Last of the V8s
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January 15, 2019, 07:31:57 PM

In a later tweet,
l.i.n.k?
JayJuanGee
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January 15, 2019, 07:32:55 PM

kalashnikovs are the goto weapon for large parts of the world, and they do back a wallop with a heavy bullet. getting hit with a heavy bullet that size would not be pleasant at all.

Especially, if in the head.   Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
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January 15, 2019, 07:37:44 PM

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Quote
Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Quote
Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

From your own data:

- Most of the bullets did not even hit the platform. (What I said about human pobablation density).
- 4 hit (out of 500), but only ONE left a 1.5mm mark on wood?

So even in that rare case most probably not deadly even if a head hit (surely painful) and, according to your own data: "Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound"

It would not even penetrate the skull. There is hair, skin, meat, and bones all of which would cushion that 1.5mm dent better than wood. A serious concussion? Maybe. A slight probability of a deadly concussion? Yeah, but very slight indeed.

Anyway, no, I wouldn't want that random "lucky" bullet hitting me right in the middle of my fucking head or, even worse, an eye Smiley
In other words an unacceptable risk.
bitserve
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January 15, 2019, 07:42:12 PM

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Quote
Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Quote
Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

From your own data:

- Most of the bullets did not even hit the platform. (What I said about human pobablation density).
- 4 hit (out of 500), but only ONE left a 1.5mm mark on wood?

So even in that rare case most probably not deadly even if a head hit (surely painful) and, according to your own data: "Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound"

It would not even penetrate the skull. There is hair, skin, meat, and bones all of which would cushion that 1.5mm dent better than wood. A serious concussion? Maybe. A slight probability of a deadly concussion? Yeah, but very slight indeed.

Anyway, no, I wouldn't want that random "lucky" bullet hitting me right in the middle of my fucking head or, even worse, an eye Smiley
In other words an unacceptable risk.

Unacceptable? It depends. How much would would I get for you to fire 500 rounds straight up in the air and me standing in place waiting for the more than improbable non-lethal head hit?

P.S.: I have good hair, mind you.
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January 15, 2019, 07:42:42 PM

Hairy - thanks for the analysis but I'm not sure that logic holds (yet).
We're still looking at lower highs, and the recent move up didn't push past the 50-day MA. Meanwhile volumes are still down on what you'd expect for a bitcoin capitulation. I'd expect weekly volumes to rival the highest-volume week of the entire downtrend, like 200k BTC on Stamp.
Not suggesting we can't have seen the bottom yet, just that in my view it's certainly unconfirmed.

100% agree.  This is certainly not confirmed - it is a tentative hypothesis only.  The majority of technicals are against the bottom being in.

Really we have two choices.  Either Bitcoin price cycles are stable in length or they are getting longer.  

I am punting on the former but this is all about risk management.


Ah, cheers for the clarification. I doubt the cycles will be that different but a few days/weeks could make a lot of difference. We'll know soon.
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January 15, 2019, 07:47:46 PM

Or it didn’t happen
Ibian
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January 15, 2019, 07:49:28 PM

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Quote
Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Quote
Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

From your own data:

- Most of the bullets did not even hit the platform. (What I said about human pobablation density).
- 4 hit (out of 500), but only ONE left a 1.5mm mark on wood?

So even in that rare case most probably not deadly even if a head hit (surely painful) and, according to your own data: "Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound"

It would not even penetrate the skull. There is hair, skin, meat, and bones all of which would cushion that 1.5mm dent better than wood. A serious concussion? Maybe. A slight probability of a deadly concussion? Yeah, but very slight indeed.

Anyway, no, I wouldn't want that random "lucky" bullet hitting me right in the middle of my fucking head or, even worse, an eye Smiley
In other words an unacceptable risk.

Unacceptable? It depends. How much would would I get for you to fire 500 rounds straight up in the air and me standing in place waiting for the more than improbable non-lethal head hit?

P.S.: I have good hair, mind you.
You'd have to pay me for it. I know how americans love lawsuits. Besides it's not about you mister narcissist. It's about the people it actually does happen to, especially those who did not consent to random falling bullets. The more it's accepted the more people will do it the more people will get hurt.
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January 15, 2019, 07:51:11 PM

A 'pebble' falling from several kilometers (without any acceleration except for gravity) will kill you I think. At least that's what I remember my calculation of over a decade ago.

Did you account for air drag, or did you only consider gravitational acceleration?

At that time it would have lost all of its rotation and probably would be just tumbling with added air drag. A parabolic shoot on the other hand.... But still most probably not deadly... if it was so unfortunate to hit someone in the head/eyes/neck. Which is like an extremely small probability in itself. A hit to the body of person with clothes would probably just bounce (not without some moderate impact pain depending on clothes thickness) and not penetrate.

Sigh..we have to get ya'll some more edjumacation..just saying.

Quote
Out of the more than 500 shots fired from the test platform only 4 falling bullets struck the platform and one fell in the boat near the platform. One of the bullets striking the platform left a 1/16 inch deep mark in the soft pine board. The bullet struck base first.

Quote
Based on the results of these tests it was concluded that the bullet return velocity was about 300 f.p.s. For the 150 gr. bullet this corresponds to an energy of 30 foot pounds. Earlier the Army had determined that, on the average, it required 60 foot pounds of energy to produce a disabling wound. Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound.

https://web.archive.org/web/20080331192517/http://www.loadammo.com/Topics/March01.htm

https://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/K-12/airplane/termv.html

We could dive into Stokes Law or Reynolds numbers but I think I will just leave it with this.

I dont know about you but a 1/16 inch dent in my skull sounds pretty painful...if not immediately lethal.

From your own data:

- Most of the bullets did not even hit the platform. (What I said about human pobablation density).
- 4 hit (out of 500), but only ONE left a 1.5mm mark on wood?

So even in that rare case most probably not deadly even if a head hit (surely painful) and, according to your own data: "Based on this information, a falling 150 gr. service bullet would not be lethal, although it could produce a serious wound"

It would not even penetrate the skull. There is hair, skin, meat, and bones all of which would cushion that 1.5mm dent better than wood. A serious concussion? Maybe. A slight probability of a deadly concussion? Yeah, but very slight indeed.

Anyway, no, I wouldn't want that random "lucky" bullet hitting me right in the middle of my fucking head or, even worse, an eye Smiley
In other words an unacceptable risk.

Unacceptable? It depends. How much would would I get for you to fire 500 rounds straight up in the air and me standing in place waiting for the more than improbable non-lethal head hit?

P.S.: I have good hair, mind you.
You'd have to pay me for it. I know how americans love lawsuits.


hahahah, I am Spanish not American, and a little bit crazy maybe, but no, indeed it would not be cheap for me to do that even if I (theoretically) consider the risk is very low in comparison to other daily activities... Not cheap at all, even if just for compensating me being scared as hell besides all the probabilities in my favour.
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January 15, 2019, 07:54:43 PM

I'm a little bit ashamed at myself at how horrible I am at prognosticating anything crypto-related, but the current issues with ETH, overall, has led me the seriously ponder; "Is ETH truly and honestly dead, and it just doesn't know it yet ?"

I can't see how it survives 2019 without plunging to at least half it's current valuation.

It almost feels like all the individual elements that have plagued ETH over the last couple years, have recently come together, and left it teetering on the edge of being declared a failed project.

The fact that it's nigh-impossible for the average joe to run a full, modern ETH node is a catastrophic oversight in retrospect.

Nah.

I'd say ETH is BTC-like right now.

BTC can't die because that's the entry gate to any crypto related project. For BTC to die it means all altcoins must die first.

ETH can't die because it's the baseground of all the shitcoin ICO projects. And there is too much potential (appart from all the stormshit) for it to die.

You have few coins that have any use, BTC and ETH are some of them.


I understand what you are saying, here, yet I still have conceptual difficulties with your placing BTC and ETH on similar grounds.

Sure, there is an on-boarding utility aspect to each coin, yet BTC is sound money, and as you acknowledge, ETH is a platform used to pump scams.

We can acknowledge these on-boarding similarity dynamics of both coins, and especially considering the sound money differentiation of bitcoin, and recognize that it could take 20 years or more for the various ICO scams to play out and for the sound money differentiation to magnetize the vast majority of value into BTC.

I'm a little bit ashamed at myself at how horrible I am at prognosticating anything crypto-related, but the current issues with ETH, overall, has led me the seriously ponder; "Is ETH truly and honestly dead, and it just doesn't know it yet ?"

I can't see how it survives 2019 without plunging to at least half it's current valuation.

It almost feels like all the individual elements that have plagued ETH over the last couple years, have recently come together, and left it teetering on the edge of being declared a failed project.

The fact that it's nigh-impossible for the average joe to run a full, modern ETH node is a catastrophic oversight in retrospect.

Bitcoin has a valid use cases TODAY, thus value and incentive to hold it and use it TODAY.

ETH has ??

Nothing but future promises on supposed future use cases for solutions for problems that don't really exist (because idealized, ivory tower bullshit, not reality), therefore no incentive to hold it or use it TODAY nor in the FUTURE. It's valuation at any time has zero to do with its utility, which is really nil.

ETH's "valid use case" today is it's facilitation of scams (including ICOs), so whether we like it or not, ETH has a "valid" (even though scam dependent) "today use case," no?
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January 15, 2019, 08:01:52 PM

I guess the point I was trying to make is it's probably not a good idea. I was trained to always to shoot at something, be it a practice target, the ground, a tree or the enemy. Not wildly into the air. ymmv.

--------
Bitcoin

Some short fibs as consolidation continues.
30m


Do to recent unforeseen circumstances we have several new positions open in our knife catcher department. Applicant's are encouraged to apply below...

A small dip perhaps followed by a weekend recovery? #dyor
3h

#stronghands'19

--

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January 15, 2019, 08:06:22 PM

So I guess people believe that as long as a crypto is secure, scales, has a good wallet, can run a node, and runs on good hardware, then....

....it really doesn't NEED TO HAVE ANY PURPOSE FOR EXISTING BEYOND THOSE THINGS TO BE A SUCCESS??

Are you guys for real? Those are all just technical details, that can be easily cloned and replicated with the click of a mouse.

I don't understand why you, Torque, have this tendency to describe some general point of view, and than attribute such point of view to "you guys." 

Is this just an ongoing figure of speech of yours, or are you always engaging in such generalization fallacies in your way of thinking about matters? 

As if you are the only person that has any original perspective, and all other thoughts fall into a glob of "you guys think?"   Or a Straw man, way of presentation?
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January 15, 2019, 08:09:13 PM
Last edit: January 15, 2019, 08:19:18 PM by bitserve

I guess the point I was trying to make is it's probably not a good idea. I was trained to always to shoot at something, be it a practice target, the ground, a tree or the enemy. Not wildly into the air. ymmv.


Oh yeah, I totally agree. My father used to shoot .22 cal bullets straight up in the air in the middle of the fucking city when we were testing some homemade silencers I used to make (not anymore, I am a totally law abiding citizen and have always been since I was 18+) and I remember I was very uncomfortable and upset with him for that because I speculated about the possibility of someone being hit by the falling bullets even if miles away. He never even considered my opinion and now I think he was probably right... At least now that I can get my calculations right. Still I think it was wrong and a perfectly avoidable risk no matter what.
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