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Question: What year will we achieve a new ATH?
2019 - 31 (29.2%)
2020 - 42 (39.6%)
2021 - 26 (24.5%)
2022 - 5 (4.7%)
2023 - 0 (0%)
Never - 2 (1.9%)
Total Voters: 106

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 21172111 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (23 posts by 12 users deleted.)
d_eddie
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January 12, 2019, 01:01:51 PM

I get (and like) everything about bitcoin with one point that is not clear to me: is credit possible in btc-based financial system?
If yes, then how? If no, it could be a limitation, albeit most people might think that this is a feature.

I enjoy short term zero % credit (as i pay my bills in full every credit card cycle).
I fully understand that it is a gimmick and most people don't do that and accumulate debt, although my personal interest payment is -1.5% (1.5% reward and NO interest).
How bitcoin can/will fight this?
I'm afraid it's a structural problem. Lending requires trust, which is usually provided by "reliable" parties - our friends the banks. A trustless system such as bitcoin makes it hard to implement such an arrangement, unless the collateral is tokenizable too.

Quote
I would be happy to lend my btc (on a monthly basis) to a reliable party (if there is such a thing in btc world) and get back 2-3% interest on a yearly basis, but only if interest is in btc and not fiat.
IMHO, btc lending needs to be established and sooner rather than later.

I would have liked to do that too, but when I searched a bit, the only option I found were some exchanges lending out your btc as margin for other users, which required quite a bit of trust - counterparty risk compounded into squared counterparty risk!
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realr0ach
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January 12, 2019, 01:04:45 PM

Realistically, in order for the govt to not completely control every aspect of bitcoin and turn it into their cashless society slavery system, you would need more transaction validators than are reasonable to prosecute them all.  Like in the base bitcoin system, there are VERY FEW mega miners and it's extremely easy for the govt to jail these people, force them to implement AML/KYC, force them to implement govt specified protocol changes, etc.

There's less overhead to create a Lightning node, so there can be more of them than the base bitcoin transaction validators, but LN is lower in the hierarchy so the weakest link of having only a few mega miners takes precedent. Even if it didn't take precedent, Lightning is also designed to centralize under a few mega hubs anyway for optimal pathing.  You're screwed in different ways no matter what path you take.  This is why I repeat myself over and over that there's no viable solutions to ANYTHING in cryptocurrency and we should be using physical metals instead.
fluidjax
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January 12, 2019, 01:12:56 PM

If a party decides to censor you simply try an alternative route
How will they control ALL the lightning nodes, anyone can start a node.

I already answered that.  Lightning nodes are NOT invisible.  Nor are football stadium sized mining facilities.  If you think a professional money laundering enterprise - that's what freelance lightning nodes will be known by to the govt -  are somehow immune to govt regulation when they can easily come knock on your door, you're out of your mind:

Anything that has an easily identifiable physical or digital surface attack vector will be enveloped by the current system.  Claiming you're going to run a wildcat Lightning node is like claiming you're going to be some type freelance illegal porn distributor and the FBI is not going to kick in your door.

Yes lightning Nodes are not invisible,  but when you receive a lightning TX and you forward-it on to another node, you have no idea where it is ultimately going too, and where it has ultimately come from. You only know the next hop in the chain forwards and backwards which is insufficient to meaningfully censor.

If my node is being refused a channel to a 'hub' I simply open a channel to another node which connects to the 'hub' and all is well. You can't force everyone to censor.
Wekkel
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January 12, 2019, 01:16:37 PM

If we take the following grand themes as the truth, the future of cryptocurrency is bright:

Quote
Deflationary expectations, now 40+ years old, are becoming inflationary expectations.
Cooperative and multi-play games in both international politics and domestic politics, now 70+ years old, are becoming competitive and single-play games.
Modern capital markets, now 150+ years old, are becoming political utilities.
Source: https://www.epsilontheory.com/you-are-here/
realr0ach
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January 12, 2019, 01:16:56 PM

I like your content, it makes me think on some aspects of the current world monetary/goods system.
One thing I disagree with is that in order for you to be able to spend that gold, silver or copper coin you've already made someone rich, the guys that mined the raw metal and the guys that sold you the coin so you can spend it.
Unless you start mining gold, silver or copper yourself and then transfer the raw material to a coin, you're making someone else rich.

Try mining gold yourself? Aren't all the gold, silver and copper mines in the World owned by A FEW large corporations based on licenses that the Governments granted them for lots of money?

At face value, you can argue that there are 'choke points' for bringing new metals into the system parties can attempt to monopolize, but I would say no matter how you look at it, the monopolization is less than that of bitcoin mining for numerous reasons.  For instance, where a river or stream dumps into another body of water is supposedly good for trying to find gold, and such a place can be hand mined by pan while spending zero gasoline.  

In an actual physical metals based economy, the price of diesel, which makes up a large amount of the corporation's cost of production for metals, would be priced in gold and silver instead of fiat dollars.  The corporation cannot misallocate capital by spending valueless fiat to pull new metals out of the ground in an inefficient way.  They would need to spend less gold and silver on gas than they're using to get it out of the ground.  As you can see, the corporation doesn't have vastly superior economy of scale over a human powered, pan miner of gold at a river making the little guy's effort completely pointless.

This is the exact opposite in bitcoin.  The corporation's economy of scale makes the little guy's effort at mining generally always pointless, and thus far more centralizing.
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January 12, 2019, 01:20:02 PM

Where you can freely take your silver and gold bars through any airport
Virtually nowhere

Don't affect people like roach cus they don't get out or travel
realr0ach
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January 12, 2019, 01:26:55 PM

Where you can freely take your silver and gold bars through any airport
Virtually nowhere

This is a standard 80 IQ bitcoin user argument.  Bitcoin is not a censorship free system.  Transaction validators are designed to centralize, and govts can and will force those centralized, enormous miner buildings to practice AML/KYC. Bitcoin's current value is based solely around regulatory arbitrage, but it's not a viable longterm position because it's far too easy for the govt to stop it.  You have no valid argument because regulatory arbitrage IS NOT a viable property of a centralized, non-fungible, tracking system (blockchain) that abolishes the 5th amendment.
bitserve
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January 12, 2019, 01:27:34 PM

[...]Lightning Network is an exact replica of the current banking system [...]

You have to upgrade your thinking.... Roll Eyes

Even if it had any similarity it would be only for letting them manage our pocket money instead of our holdings, exactly the contrary of what currently happens with the banking system in which we let them control the whole of our finances and we only control the pocket money. It's easy to see the improvement.
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Be safe, Elwar and Nadia !!


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January 12, 2019, 01:33:58 PM

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5096275.0

HAT INVASION please Roll Eyes
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January 12, 2019, 01:42:14 PM

According to coinfairvalue, Bitcoin should be at $7415 right now.
https://www.coinfairvalue.com/

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January 12, 2019, 01:42:30 PM
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Of course lightning is a far weaker system than Bitcoin offering far less security and censorship resistance.

You miss the point it does nothing to fix the current monetary system.  The fact bitcoin is designed around having built-in, rent seeking middlemen who you need to ask permission from to move the coins you supposedly own, and then need to pay a ransom extortion fee to, should be a red flag to any non-idiot that bitcoin at it's core does really nothing to alter the evil banking system that currently exists.  The variable of fixed money supply in bitcoin vs infinite fiat supply is pretty much a giant red herring to distract people in this regard.


You don't understand. Lightning is not an equivalent to the monetary system but to a single payment system. Even if lightning is undermined still #bitcoinsusersnotaffected holds. A middle man hardly is a middle man if it's trivial to avoid him Wink
LFC_Bitcoin
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One of the world's leading Bitcoin-powered casinos


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January 12, 2019, 01:43:50 PM

According to coinfairvalue, Bitcoin should be at $7415 right now.
https://www.coinfairvalue.com/



Dem cheap coinz innit bro
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January 12, 2019, 01:55:54 PM

You don't understand. Lightning is not an equivalent to the monetary system but to a single payment system. Even if lightning is undermined still #bitcoinsusersnotaffected holds. A middle man hardly is a middle man if it's trivial to avoid him Wink

Years ago, before the small vs large blocks debate, I did the research myself to try and determine how large of blocks bitcoin would need to function as a global payment system.  My number was needing around 8 MB blocks for transactions of something like $10k+ to viable.  So, no, it is not *easy* to use solely the base bitcoin protocol and avoid off-chain transactions and 3rd parties.  You should have seen Anonymint's estimates for just how high transaction fees could go, they were astronomical.  Some of the estimates assumed miners colluding, but even the ones with no collusion were LOL insane.
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January 12, 2019, 02:05:14 PM

Morning WO's, have a great weekend.

Smoking some hopium the other day, was enough to make me realize the absence of Lambie_Slayer, silently taking a ride with our two morons of honor.



Earlier that day, virgin r0ach bravely had confessed his nano penis phenomena to gembitz.



Last but not least, both agreed to double their initial order since 2015, now buying $2 worth of BTC at the price of $199.



PEEEEEEEEE Grin

Felt like dropping by to say this is excellent Cheesy Bravo!

Kissless Virgin and his Weiner Girl will never be safe as bears on this sacred ground.

Roach I did like your Trump/Chuck Schumer/Wall meme, it was really good. Its not too late to sell your silver, buy a whore and lose the V card, then use the rest for Bitcoin and leave the life of losing and pain behind.

Its a BTCull Market you know.
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January 12, 2019, 02:05:36 PM

Lol Bitcoin does not have to function as a global payment system. Listening to Ver and hanging in /r/btc too often?

If you pay the fee your transaction will be included in the Blockchain. If that fee is the equivalent of $0.10, $1, $10, $100, $1000 or more that simply reflects the value of being able to place a transaction on the Bitcoin blockchain.
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January 12, 2019, 02:11:16 PM

If you pay the fee your transaction will be included in the Blockchain. If that fee is the equivalent of $0.10, $1, $10, $100, $1000 or more that simply reflects the value of being able to place a transaction on the Bitcoin blockchain.

What is the purpose of bitcoin if transaction fees went to $1000?  It's mostly a fucking interbank settlement tool and that's it.  The banks would also get rid of it and use their own proprietary settlement tool or token as well.  You have to keep in mind that unlike a bank to peon citizen transaction, in interbank settlement they are NOT attempting to rip each other off (usually), so each party would demand an actual real payment and they would use physical metals for settlement like they always do.  The other side wouldn't want or accept an imaginary, valueless, digital token as collateral for anything.
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January 12, 2019, 02:45:53 PM

Macleod with a short history of the euro. Probably well known already among readers here but nonetheless a good summary: https://www.goldmoney.com/research/goldmoney-insights/the-tragedy-of-the-euro

Hint: continued failure of fiat currencies = bullish for crypto.

Can only banks start a Lightning Network Node?
Can only banks validate LN transactions?

Can YOU create a fucking branch bank right now?  NO.  


No need to swear.  Roll Eyes

Quote
You need massive capital, lawyers, govt connections, and everything else.  All of the same rules will apply to Lightning nodes, just NOT DAY ONE.  Stop playing dumb.  Those regulations and red tape (AML/KYC) will lock out any wildcat nodes and the only ones will be run by people like Bank of America and Goldman Sachs.  

Anything that has an easily identifiable physical or digital surface attack vector will be enveloped by the current system.  Claiming you're going to run a wildcat Lightning node is like claiming you're going to be some type freelance illegal porn distributor and the FBI is not going to kick in your door.  If you're capable of putting 1+1 together, shilling for Lightning is like shilling directly for Goldman Sachs.

You seem to imply that government can (and will) shutdown LN nodes unless they have been vetted and are licensed. Wouldnt the same be true for Bitcoin nodes?

In other words: are you arguing that the government can feasibly block Bitcoin and LN networks ?
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January 12, 2019, 02:49:40 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1), micgoossens (1), kenzawak (1)

Had my 24 word seed tattooed along my penis, the burglar will have to impress me somehow before they can steal it.

 The average word length for BIP39 seeds is 6.4 characters according to my extensive-1 sample. (10 lines)

Some definitions and assumptions:

  • The standard character size for text is 12 DTP-Point (abbreviated pt.)
  • ONE pt. = 1/72 of an inch
  • Twenty-four seed @ average word length of 6.4

 Calculation:

24 (words) X 6.4 (chars/word) X 12 pt X 72-1 in./pt. = 25.6 inches

Conclusion:

 Seed word tattoo is split into two lines




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Send bitcoin for sex


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January 12, 2019, 02:51:07 PM
Merited by micgoossens (1)

That way I could only show each tattooist 5" for opsec
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January 12, 2019, 02:51:18 PM

So, while things are not in the bull zone yet, do you not think it 'possible' (as my hopium-addled brain thinks) that this is finally the beginning of the end?

Yes it is definitely the beginning of the end.  The problem is, "the end" is quite a large mind space.  It will likely take up most or all of the 2019 calendar year.  

Personally, I am thinking a dull sideways, but slowly upward grind (sure, with fits and starts) from here to the end of this year. Not a bull run yet - but past the definitive end of the bear market.  

Too optimistic for me.  We have no foundations on which to build a bull run yet.  And we need to break the bearline.  Those foundations could form tomorrow, but they are missing for now.  

I think too many people would rather buy at 3XXX and risk it dipping than be forced to buy at 4K or 5K if Bitcoin has a French Weekend when they aren't watching.

Yes, it is critically important to be hedged against the upside.  

If there is to be a new ATH, according to pattern - with the order of increase we saw between the last two, then (to extrapolate) what is the difference buying at 3K or 2K if it might hit 50K inside 2 years?

I have said before, we could hit $280k by December 2021.  I still think this is possible.  

Thanks for the reply Hairy, I don't disagree with you.   Other than 'the beginning of the end' I wasn't being so optimistic, I don't think anything like a real bull run can happen this year.  But even 2015, which memories think dull, saw a near trebling of the price from the Jan low by EOY.

The 200MA wasn't broken, but it was perfectly touched a few weeks back.  One more try? Possibly - but even then I reckon it will probably hold, if so... the end of the beginning is confirmed.
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